VanEck realiza una sorprendente verificación de la realidad sobre la correlación entre Bitcoin y los bonos

TheStreet Roundtable · 2026-09-24T16:21:38.000Z

VanEck describe el cambio en la actitud de la SEC hacia las criptomonedas (1:46) Al hablar con CNBC, el responsable de Investigación de Activos Digitales de VanEck, Matthew Sigel, rechazó la idea de que los movimientos de las tasas estén dirigiendo el precio de Bitcoin; en su lugar, señaló al dólar. "Bitcoin prácticamente no tiene correlación con los rendimientos de los bonos, pero sí tiene una correlación negativa persistente con el DXY", dijo, y añadió que el movimiento reciente en el índice del dólar explica mejor la caída que cualquier narrativa sobre bonos. Sigel atribuyó la fuerte subida del verano a que los vendedores simplemente se quedaron sin margen. “Eso fue agotamiento de vendedores; todos y cada uno de ellos se quedaron sin gasolina durante el verano”, dijo.

VanEck outlines change in SEC attitude toward crypto (1:46)
Speaking to CNBC, VanEck Head of Digital Assets Research Matthew Sigel pushed back on the idea that rate moves are steering Bitcoin’s price, pointing instead to the dollar.
"Bitcoin has virtually no correlation with bond yields, but it does have a persistent negative correlation with the DXY," he said, adding that the recent move in the dollar index explains the pullback better than any bond narrative.
Sigel credited the summer’s sharp rally to sellers simply running out. “That was sellers exhaustion, every single one of them fired over the summer,” he said.
From $58,000 to $86,000
Sigel added that Bitcoin’s climb from roughly $58,000 to $86,000 despite a Fed rate hike and the Clarity Act’s failure.
Related: Analyst says XRP could be ready for a big move
He flagged the 50-week moving average, near $78,000, as the level that matters most heading into the weekly close.
"If we hold that 78k by this Friday's close, then there's nothing to worry about," Sigel said. But he cautioned that roughly $20 billion in call-heavy options expiring this week could pressure prices lower in the short term.
On the size of the current drawdown compared with past cycles, Sigel pointed to falling volatility as the key difference.
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“Look at the realized volatility of this asset. It’s down 50% over the last four years,” he said.
Sigel added that once adjusted for volatility, this cycle’s pullback is “pretty much in line with what we were expecting,” as institutional adoption grows.
“If rates keep going up at this pace, it's going to slow a lot of things. And Bitcoin may be the least of our worries. But the correlations over time, it's a negative correlation with the DXY, the dollar,” he further added.
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