This is the first time STH have sat in profit territory for a sustained stretch since the market top.

The last time was in January, but that episode didn't last more than a week. In May, losses held by STH remained dominant.

Today, it's been nearly a month since STH have been mostly in profit, an important development worth highlighting. In this chart, these profits and losses have been expressed in USD, to properly visualize their real scale and compare them against current market cap.

Profits held by STH are estimated at $168B, while losses sit just above $100B.

This is a dynamic that's consistently observed during bear markets. As seen in 2022-2023, a bear market can only come to an end once STH manage to hold profit on a stable basis.

This might seem counterintuitive, but it isn't.

STH are known to be more sensitive and more volatile, and during bear markets, every return to profit territory represents a brief selling window, which quickly gives way to renewed losses, driving capitulation.

The bear market trend only truly reverses once profits settle in for good STH and then push them to hold their positions and ride the upside.

That's exactly the setup that appears to be forming right now. If Bitcoin manages to hold these levels and settle durably above $80 000, that would likely stand as an important confirmation.

Written by Darkfost