Trump just blinked on ethics. Clarity Act odds jumped to 32% before Tuesday’s 60-vote cloture test.
Same week the Fed is 85% priced to hike 25bp.
The hike is expected. A Clarity surprise is not.
Regulatory clarity is a multi-year unlock for banks, custody, and institutions. A 25bp hike is incremental tightening.
If Tuesday clears 60 votes, Clarity can beat the Fed for Bitcoin in the short term. If it fails as the market expects, the hike becomes the story.
32% still means most traders think it dies. That’s exactly why a yes vote would hit harder.
Same week the Fed is 85% priced to hike 25bp.
The hike is expected. A Clarity surprise is not.
Regulatory clarity is a multi-year unlock for banks, custody, and institutions. A 25bp hike is incremental tightening.
If Tuesday clears 60 votes, Clarity can beat the Fed for Bitcoin in the short term. If it fails as the market expects, the hike becomes the story.
32% still means most traders think it dies. That’s exactly why a yes vote would hit harder.