evryone is asking the same question:
Will the Fed HOLD… or HIKE?
My unpopular take?
I think the market is still underestimating the possibility of a 25bps HIKE.
August CPI came in at 3.4% YoY, with prices rising 0.4% MoM. More importantly, core CPI increased 0.3% MoM and remains well above the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
And here is where things get interesting…
The Fed isn't looking at CPI in isolation.
We already had a stronger-than-expected jobs report, while inflation is refusing to fall quickly enough.
So why would the Fed suddenly become comfortable cutting or staying aggressively dovish?
I don't think they will.
📌 MY CALL: 25BPS HIKE
And this is where I become even more cautious:
SHORT-TERM: BEARISH ON RISK ASSETS
A hawkish Fed can mean higher yields + stronger dollar + tighter financial conditions.
That combination can put serious pressure on BTC and other high-beta crypto assets.
BUT…
Here is the contrarian part:
If Bitcoin survives the initial hawkish shock and refuses to break major support, I would actually become VERY bullish.
Why?
Because if BTC can absorb bad macro news without collapsing, that tells me buyers may be much stronger than the headlines suggest.
My strategy isn't to blindly short BTC.
I'm watching the reaction.
GOLD: bullish as a hedge against persistent inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.
₿ BTC: cautious/bearish short term, but ready to turn bullish if price proves it can absorb the Fed shock.
The biggest mistake traders make is trading the headline instead of trading the market's reaction to the headline.
So now I want to know:
FED HIKE or HOLD?
BULLISH or BEARISH?
And the real question:
If the Fed actually hikes 25bps, does BTC dump… or does Bitcoin surprise everyone and rally anyway?
I'm betting volatility comes first. The real opportunity comes after the market reveals its hand.
#CPIWatch #bitcoin #BTC #GOLD #CRYPTO
MY WATCHLIST
GOLD (XAU): Watching for continued strength if inflation remains sticky.
₿ BTC: Watching how Bitcoin reacts to higher yields and a potentially hawkish Fed.
ETH: Watching for whether the broader crypto market follows BTC's reaction.
“I think the market is still underestimating the possibility of a 25bps HIKE.”