Fed decision week is here, and BTC is coiling right below $80K.
Here's what matters: CPI drops on September 11, then the FOMC meeting runs September 15-16. Markets are pricing a 55% chance of a 25bp hike and 45% chance of a hold. That's basically a coin flip, and it's keeping everyone on edge .
BTC is stuck in a tight range. 78K is near-term support, 76K is the real defense zone. Current price is around $78,300, down 0.20% .
The ETF flow story flipped. After three days of inflows totaling $1.01B, Bitcoin spot ETFs just saw $120M net outflow. ARKB got hit hardest with $78M, followed by GBTC at $27.2M and IBIT at $19.5M .
Whales aren't buying the dip. According to Glassnode, addresses holding 1,000+ BTC only added 4,100 BTC in the past 30 days. Compare that to the accumulation phase in February-April where they were adding 61,000 BTC monthly . That's a massive drop in demand from the big players.
Oil is the wildcard nobody's talking about enough. Brent broke above $100 for the first time since July 23. US-Iran tensions are escalating, and that's feeding inflation fears and pushing yields higher. 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest since November 2023 .
My take: Everything hinges on CPI and the Fed. If CPI comes in hot and the Fed hikes, 76K gets tested fast. If we get a hold with dovish language, the squeeze back to $80K+ could be violent given how crowded shorts are getting.
Until then, I'm not forcing a trade. The market wants direction from macro, not crypto news. Wait for the data.
$BTC
Here's what matters: CPI drops on September 11, then the FOMC meeting runs September 15-16. Markets are pricing a 55% chance of a 25bp hike and 45% chance of a hold. That's basically a coin flip, and it's keeping everyone on edge .
BTC is stuck in a tight range. 78K is near-term support, 76K is the real defense zone. Current price is around $78,300, down 0.20% .
The ETF flow story flipped. After three days of inflows totaling $1.01B, Bitcoin spot ETFs just saw $120M net outflow. ARKB got hit hardest with $78M, followed by GBTC at $27.2M and IBIT at $19.5M .
Whales aren't buying the dip. According to Glassnode, addresses holding 1,000+ BTC only added 4,100 BTC in the past 30 days. Compare that to the accumulation phase in February-April where they were adding 61,000 BTC monthly . That's a massive drop in demand from the big players.
Oil is the wildcard nobody's talking about enough. Brent broke above $100 for the first time since July 23. US-Iran tensions are escalating, and that's feeding inflation fears and pushing yields higher. 10-year Treasury yields hit their highest since November 2023 .
My take: Everything hinges on CPI and the Fed. If CPI comes in hot and the Fed hikes, 76K gets tested fast. If we get a hold with dovish language, the squeeze back to $80K+ could be violent given how crowded shorts are getting.
Until then, I'm not forcing a trade. The market wants direction from macro, not crypto news. Wait for the data.
$BTC