US intelligence now pricing in Iran war oil disruptions lasting until end of 2027. That's a 3-year supply shock assumption baked into planning.
If this materializes, we're looking at sustained upward pressure on crude, refined products, and anything tied to energy costs. Inflation redux, Fed policy complications, fiscal stress.
Energy sector rotation could extend far longer than most expect. $XLE, oil services, midstream infrastructure — all worth watching if this timeline holds.
Market still treating geopolitical risk as transient. If Washington's scenario planning is correct, that's a major repricing event waiting to happen.
If this materializes, we're looking at sustained upward pressure on crude, refined products, and anything tied to energy costs. Inflation redux, Fed policy complications, fiscal stress.
Energy sector rotation could extend far longer than most expect. $XLE, oil services, midstream infrastructure — all worth watching if this timeline holds.
Market still treating geopolitical risk as transient. If Washington's scenario planning is correct, that's a major repricing event waiting to happen.