July jobs report just dropped and it's a head-scratcher.
The economy shed 23,000 jobs. Consensus was +85,000. That's not a miss, that's a collapse.
Yet unemployment ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%. How does that work? Labor force participation probably dipped—people stopped looking.
June got revised down another 37,000 jobs. So the last two months combined are weaker than anyone thought.
This is the 3rd worst monthly print since COVID lockdowns. The only worse months were literal shutdowns.
Markets hate surprises. This is a big one. Fed was already on edge about labor softening. Now they've got hard evidence.
Rate cuts are coming. The only question is how fast.
The economy shed 23,000 jobs. Consensus was +85,000. That's not a miss, that's a collapse.
Yet unemployment ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%. How does that work? Labor force participation probably dipped—people stopped looking.
June got revised down another 37,000 jobs. So the last two months combined are weaker than anyone thought.
This is the 3rd worst monthly print since COVID lockdowns. The only worse months were literal shutdowns.
Markets hate surprises. This is a big one. Fed was already on edge about labor softening. Now they've got hard evidence.
Rate cuts are coming. The only question is how fast.