CryptoQuant Quicktake

Data on short-term whale losses (STH Whale Unrealized P&L) shows that this segment is experiencing its largest unrealized loss in history, exceeding -$21 billion. This level reflects exceptional psychological and financial pressure on fast-moving capital and indicates that a significant proportion of whales that entered the market in recent months are now underwater following the sharp decline in Bitcoin’s price.

On the other hand, Binance’s BTC CVD Confirmation Score, which measures the alignment between price movements and actual buy and sell order flows using a moving average correlation coefficient, currently registers a relatively high level near 0.83. This suggests that price action is becoming more consistent with real volume behavior in the market, indicating that buying activity is becoming more apparent despite the prevailing price weakness.

Historically, short-term whale losses reaching such extreme levels often coincide with advanced stages of a correction, when forced-selling waves have exhausted a significant portion of their momentum. In these environments, the market tends to transition from a distribution phase to a phase of seeking a new price equilibrium, paving the way for the formation of a base upon which future advances can be built.

This positive divergence typically emerges near market transitional phases, as selling momentum weakens while buying forces quietly begin to build positions. Accordingly, the convergence of extreme STH whale losses with improved CVD confirmation on Binance reinforces the hypothesis that Bitcoin is approaching a local bottom formation zone, or at least a consolidation phase, ahead of any broader recovery attempt in the medium term.

Written by Arab Chain

The question dominating the cryptocurrency market is: "How far will this Bear Market go?" Bitcoin, which has accumulated a 17% decline this year, faces a perfect storm of massive institutional outflows from ETFs ($12 billion in three months), global risk aversion, and a lack of clear regulatory support. However, this scenario of intense selling by major players may be paving the way for a future reversal. The focus now shifts to identifying the accumulation zone – the level where selling pressure exhausts itself and from which 'whales' and funds can re-enter with intensity, signaling the end of the downtrend.

MARKET CYCLE SIGNALS

To navigate this turbulence and anticipate the turnaround, a didactic on-chain data-based indicator proves crucial: BTC: Market Cycle Signals (Distribution–Capitulation–Accumulation).

It interprets Bitcoin’s market cycle by segmenting it into three clear phases based on monthly Bollinger Bands:

◾ Distribution → Price touches the upper band (euphoria).

◾ Capitulation → Price crosses the 20‑month moving average in decline and seeks the lower band (panic).

◾ Accumulation → Price finds support at the lower band and consolidates (buying phase).

The current price convergence toward the band signaling the start of the accumulation phase, situated around $54.6K, suggests we are in the critical transition between Capitulation and Accumulation. This level, identified through the historical analysis of BTC: Market Cycle Signals, establishes itself as the prime candidate for the bottom region of this Bear Market.

CONCLUSION

Anticipating market movements is a strategic privilege. Tools like the BTC: Market Cycle Signals convert complex on-chain data into clarity, transforming the investor from a spectator into the architect of their own accumulation. While most wait for the obvious reversal, you will already be positioned in the region where the cycle is reborn.

Written by GugaOnChain

Bitcoin continues to experience strong downward pressure as selling activity accelerates across multiple wallet cohorts. On-chain data shows that the current decline is not driven solely by retail capitulation but by a distribution process coming from structurally significant holders.

Recent Accumulation vs. Distribution metrics reveal that wallets holding between 10 and 100 BTC, between 100 and 1,000 BTC, as well as large Humpback Whales holding more than 10,000 BTC, are actively reducing their balances. Historically, synchronized selling among these cohorts has been associated with periods of high instability and intense bearish directional movements in the market.

This distribution is particularly relevant because these groups represent participants with significant liquidity influence. When these entities transition from accumulation phases to distribution phases, the spot market often struggles to absorb incoming supply, leading to accelerated price declines.

Derivatives data further reinforces this bearish structure. The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) in futures markets remains persistently negative, indicating a dominance of aggressive sell orders. This suggests that short position openings and long liquidations are amplifying downward momentum

From a market structure perspective, this dual pressure coming from both spot distribution and derivatives is weakening key technical support levels. As buying liquidity decreases, Bitcoin becomes increasingly vulnerable to sharp price dislocations

The recent drop toward the $66,000 region reflects an environment where supply dominance is clearly prevailing. Historically, similar phases have only stabilized once clear accumulation signals reappear across major cohorts and derivatives aggression begins to neutralize

Monitoring whale behavior, cohort accumulation trends, and derivatives flow dynamics will be essential to identifying potential early signs of market stabilization

by Carmelo Alemán, On Chain Analyst

Written by Carmelo_Alemán

As BTC gradually approaches a 50% correction from its October all time high, we can see that stablecoin inflows to exchanges are increasing 📈

In late December 2025, the weekly average stablecoin inflows (7 day moving average) had dropped to $51B, perfectly reflecting the lack of demand we have been facing for several months.

Today, at $98B, these inflows have doubled and have just moved above the 90 day average, which stands at $89B.

This suggests that capital deployment has accelerated in recent weeks, and the market clearly needs it.

Nevertheless, selling pressure remains too strong to be fully absorbed.

It is still a positive signal, as it shows that investor interest is gradually returning at this level of correction.

This dynamic still needs to strengthen, but some participants are already buying this dip.

Written by Darkfost

• Ethereum whales had higher unrealized profit at the 2024 ATH (6) than at the 2025 ATH (10), despite the higher price level.

• Likewise, it can be confirmed that they are currently experiencing more pain during this market drop (13) than during the 2025 drop (7).

• On the other hand, the analysis of weekly price action from 2023 to the present is described in the edited image.

Written by _OnChain

Derivatives data indicate that Bitcoin’s Open Interest has experienced a sharp decline in recent days, falling across all exchanges to around $23.8 billion marking its lowest level since 2024. This drop reflects a significant contraction in the number of open futures positions compared to previous periods, when Open Interest had exceeded $30 billion during phases of strong market activity.

On Binance, data shows that Bitcoin Open Interest fell to approximately $8.7 billion its lowest level since April 2025. This decline coincided , suggesting that the reduction in Open Interest was not driven by a sharp price collapse, but rather by a gradual exit from leveraged positions.

From a behavioral perspective, this environment reflects a transition from heavy reliance on leverage toward a more cautious market structure, as traders close high-risk positions and reduce exposure to volatility. Such phases are often considered constructive over the medium term, as they help reset market structure and flush out weak hands.

Moreover, the combination of declining Open Interest and relatively stable prices indicates that selling pressure is primarily coming from deleveraging in derivatives markets rather than aggressive spot selling.

Open Interest reaching these depressed levels—both across the broader market and on Binance—signals widespread caution, but also reduces the likelihood of large-scale liquidation cascades,

Written by Arab Chain

A clear pattern emerges when observing the adjusted Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (aNUPL) across market cycles.

Historical analysis reveals a consistent pattern: Bitcoin rarely sustains prolonged periods in negative NUPL territory. Previous instances in 2018-2019, 2020, and 2022-2023 all preceded significant market recoveries. Each circled bottom on the chart represents moments when fear dominated sentiment, yet these precisely marked optimal accumulation zones for patient investors.

The current negative reading indicates that the average Bitcoin holder is now underwater on their position, a psychological threshold that typically triggers capitulation selling from weaker hands while creating opportunities for strategic accumulation. The metric's behavioral zones (Hope/Fear, Belief/Denial, Optimism/Anxiety, Euphoria/Greed) illustrate how sentiment oscillates, with current conditions firmly in the despair phase.

What makes this particularly noteworthy is the speed of sentiment deterioration from the euphoric levels seen in late 2024. This rapid transition suggests an acute sentiment reset rather than a gradual decline, potentially shortening the capitulation phase.

For investors and analysts, this NUPL signal serves as a quantitative measure of market psychology at extremes. While it doesn't predict exact timing, history shows these negative NUPL episodes are typically brief and followed by sustained recovery phases.

The confluence of on-chain capitulation and historical precedent suggests we may be witnessing the formation of the next major market bottom.

Written by MorenoDV_

I believe it is especially important to track the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio (Binance) during downtrend periods, because this metric measures action, not expectation. Binance has the highest spot and derivatives liquidity and can be considered the main hub for institutional and whale activity. For this reason, a large portion of major price movements driven by big investors takes place on Binance. Taker Ratio data from smaller exchanges can be misleading. In short, the Binance Taker Ratio reveals the real price pressure in the market.

On the chart, Ethereum’s Taker Buy/Sell Ratio is below 1 (around 0.94), indicating that sell side pressure dominates market orders. Buyers are waiting with limit orders, while sellers have already taken action.

Both SMA(30) and SMA(50) short and mid term averages are also below 1, with no sharp upside breakout. This shows that the selling pressure is not temporary, but structural and persistent.

With this data, even if ETH price moves upward, every rally is likely to be met with selling. There is a clear downward trend bias. Selling is aggressive, buying remains passive, and Ethereum is experiencing a true bear season. It is not difficult to say that this condition is likely to persist for a while longer.

Written by PelinayPA

As Ethereum undergoes a severe correction, revisiting the $2,100 price level, on-chain data reveals a significant shift in market sentiment, particularly among US investors.

Data Analysis:

The Ethereum Coinbase Premium Index (30-day Moving Average) has plunged to its lowest recorded value since July 2022.

What is it? This index measures the price gap between the ETH/USD pair on Coinbase Pro (US institutional proxy) and the ETH/USDT pair on Binance (Global retail proxy).

The Signal: A deeply negative premium, especially on a smoothed 30-day basis, confirms that the selling pressure is originating heavily from US entities. While global retail traders might be holding or buying the dip, US institutions appear to be aggressively “de-risking” or exiting positions.

Implications:

The last time the 30-day SMA was this negative was during the depths of the 2022 bear market. This suggests two possibilities:

Bearish Momentum: US demand—a key driver for crypto rallies—is currently non-existent, which could suppress any immediate price recovery.

Contrarian Signal: Historically, extreme negative premiums often coincide with “capitulation” phases. When the premium reaches these extremes, it can sometimes mark a local bottom, as the most aggressive sellers have finally exhausted their supply.

Conclusion:

The $2,100 level is a critical psychological and technical support. However, for a sustainable reversal, we need to see the Coinbase Premium normalize or flip positive. As long as US investors are selling at a discount compared to the global market, upside momentum will likely remain capped.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Bitcoin has finally retraced to retest its most significant historical price structure: the $68K-$72K zone. This area represents the previous cycle’s All-Time High, now undergoing a classic “S/R Flip” (Support/Resistance Flip) test.

The reaction at this level is critical. A successful defense of this zone confirms the long-term bullish structure. However, a breakdown here would be technically catastrophic, likely opening the door for a much deeper correction as the price falls back into the previous trading range.

On-Chain Warning:

While price action sits at support, the underlying derivatives data suggests intense selling pressure. The Bitcoin Taker Buy Ratio (14-day SMA) on Binance has dropped to 0.486, marking its lowest level since last October.

Interpretation:

The Taker Buy Ratio measures the ratio of buy volume to sell volume executed by “takers” (aggressive market orders).

A value of 0.486 indicates that aggressive sellers are currently dominating the market, overwhelming the buyers.

The fact that this metric is making new multi-month lows while price is at a major support suggests that the “buy the dip” demand is currently being absorbed by even stronger aggressive selling.

Conclusion:

We are witnessing a clash between a major technical support level and bearish market sentiment. For the $68K-$70K level to hold, passive limit orders will not be enough; we urgently need to see the Taker Buy Ratio pivot upward, indicating that aggressive buyers are stepping in to defend this level. Until this metric recovers, the risk of losing the $68K-$70K support remains high.

Written by CryptoOnchain

Current on chain drawdown data shows Bitcoin has declined roughly 36% from its recent cycle high, marking one of the sharpest pullbacks of this bull phase. In isolation this magnitude appears severe, but historical cycle comparison suggests the correction remains structurally consistent with prior bull market behavior rather than signaling a confirmed macro top.

Previous expansion cycles regularly recorded interim drawdowns between 30% and 50%. Both the 2011 to 2015 and 2015 to 2017 bull markets experienced repeated deep retracements before continuation higher. Even during the 2018 to 2021 cycle, multiple corrections exceeded 35% while the broader uptrend remained intact. Relative to these periods, the current decline sits within the lower to mid historical range.

Market maturity continues to compress volatility over time. Early cycles saw deleveraging events exceeding 60% due to thin liquidity and limited institutional participation. Today, deeper derivatives markets, ETF flows, and stronger spot liquidity help absorb sell pressure more efficiently, reducing systemic downside risk despite elevated leverage.

Short term drawdown metrics confirm near term stress. The weekly SMA smoothed drawdown has now broken below the negative 30% zone, an area historically associated with late stage corrections and localized capitulation. These phases are typically driven by forced liquidations and speculative positioning resets.

Meanwhile, the 30 day drawdown band has widened significantly as price trades well below short term averages. Similar deviations in prior cycles often preceded local bottom formation once seller exhaustion emerged.

Liquidity conditions and capital inflows remain decisive. As long as drawdowns stay within cyclical norms and long term holder distribution remains limited, the broader bull market structure remains statistically intact despite heightened volatility.

Written by CryptoZeno

NVT Golden Cross is a leading on-chain indicator that shows whether Bitcoin is becoming expensive or cheap relative to on-chain transaction volume. By comparing short- and long-term NVT trends, it aims to identify early phases of market overheating and cooling. Readings **above 2.2** indicate that price is overheated relative to network usage and increase the risk of local tops, while values **below -1.6** suggest that price is compressed versus on-chain activity, strengthening the probability of local bottom formation. The metric is not designed to call exact tops or bottoms, but rather to highlight **potential turning zones** ahead of time and works best when combined with other on-chain signals.

In the latest chart, NVT Golden Cross is sitting around **-1.9**, firmly within the historical **“cold zone” below -1.6**. This suggests that price is currently suppressed relative to on-chain activity and that on-chain valuation is approaching a **local bottom zone**. However, this does **not** confirm a bottom on its own. Historically, during deeper corrections, NVT Golden Cross has extended further into oversold territory, at times reaching **-3 or lower** before a sustainable reversal emerged. Therefore, while the probability of a short-term relief bounce is increasing, **further downside and deeper cooling cannot be ruled out**, and confirmation from additional signals such as SOPR, UTXO profitability, and key price level reclaim remains critical.

Written by tugbachain

The question dominating the cryptocurrency market is: "How far will this Bear Market go?" Bitcoin, which has accumulated a 17% decline this year, faces a perfect storm of massive institutional outflows from ETFs ($12 billion in three months), global risk aversion, and a lack of clear regulatory support. However, this scenario of intense selling by major players may be paving the way for a future reversal. The focus now shifts to identifying the accumulation zone – the level where selling pressure exhausts itself and from which 'whales' and funds can re-enter with intensity, signaling the end of the downtrend.

THE TOOL SIGNALING THE ACCUMULATION PHASE

To navigate this turbulence and anticipate this turnaround, a didactic on-chain data-based indicator proves crucial: the BTC: Signal DCA Cycle. It redefines the well-known term "DCA" (Dollar-Cost Averaging) as a framework for interpreting the market cycle, segmenting it into three clear phases based on monthly Bollinger Bands:

◾Distribution → Price touches the upper band (euphoria).

◾Capitulation → Price crosses the 20-month moving average in decline and seeks the lower band (panic).

◾Accumulation → Price finds support at the lower band and consolidates (buying phase).

The current price convergence toward the band signaling the start of the accumulation phase, situated around $54,6K, suggests we are in the critical transition between Capitulation and Accumulation. This level, identified based on the historical analysis of the BTC: Signal DCA Cycle, establishes itself as the prime candidate for the bottom region of this Bear Market.

CONCLUSION

Anticipating market movements is a strategic privilege. Tools like the BTC: Signal DCA Cycle convert complex on-chain data into clarity, transforming the investor from a spectator into the architect of their own accumulation. While most wait for the obvious reversal, you will already be positioned in the region where the cycle is reborn.

Written by GugaOnChain

📰 Daily Market Update:

Recent on-chain data reveals a complex, multi-layered distribution phase happening across both Bitcoin and Ethereum, as reflected in the charts.

📊 [BTC] Binance Inflows by Trader Size

This chart tracks the 7-day moving average of Bitcoin inflows to Binance, segmented by trader size:

🐋 Whales (large capital holders)

👨‍💼 Mid-size / professional traders

🤡 Retail traders (very small and almost flat at the bottom)

🔬 Key Observation

📅 On February 3, the 7-day average inflow from mid-size traders exceeded 9,400 BTC

📅 The previous peak was around 7,300 BTC on January 31, which we highlighted in an earlier update

📉 This increase in inflows directly coincided with a drop in BTC price, from around $77k to current levels belo 73k.

📊 [BTC] - Binance Whale to Exchange Flow

This chart shows the USD value of Bitcoin transferred by whales to Binance over time.

🔬 Key Observation

📈 Whale inflows to Binance started rising sharply from January 31

📈 Total whale inflow increased from $3.5B to nearly $5.5B by February 4

📉 During the same period, BTC price dropped from ~$84k to below $73k

The timing strongly suggests that whale behavior played a role in accelerating the downside move.

📊 Whales Screener

The Whales Screener model tracks real-time netflows of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins across more than 100 active whale wallets, monitoring movements to and from spot exchanges.

🔬 Recent highlights:

📅 On February 3, Ethereum recorded a sharp positive net inflow to spot exchanges with total ETH inflows surpassing $550 million.

Shortly after, the price dropped from $2,300 to below $2,100.

📉 At the same time, stablecoins showed a negative netflow of around –$425M

📈 This was followed by Bitcoin inflows on February 4, exceeding $250M

🧠 Final Conclusion

Monitoring exchange inflows, remains one of the most powerful tools in on-chain analysis.

Understanding these flows helps explain not just what the market is doing, but who is driving the move.

Written by Amr Taha

Until last year, when deposit transactions increased, the long side's expectations were high. This year is difficult because the use of Binance has changed.

Written by Crypto_Lion

Whenever dolphin holdings are low, prices are falling.

Written by Crypto_Lion

The Dolphins are weak, but so is the US itself.

Written by Crypto_Lion

Data shows Bitcoin trading near $73000, while the Log Cycle Z-Score has registered a reading close to -2.24, its lowest level since 2022. Historically, this deep negative zone represents a period of significant selling pressure and exhaustion, where prices are well below their long-term logarithmic average. In past cycles, readings below -2 have often coincided with local bottom formations or accumulation zones, which later preceded gradual recovery waves.

Interestingly, this negative reading does not necessarily signify an immediate reversal, but it does indicate that the market has moved into a statistically low-valuation zone relative to its historical trajectory. In other words, further downside risk becomes relatively limited, while the risk-to-reward ratio improves for medium- and long-term investors.

From a behavioral perspective, this phase reflects a general sense of pessimism, reduced risk appetite, and decreased leverage in derivatives markets—elements that typically recur near the end of corrective waves. The negative reading of the index, coupled with the price remaining significantly above previous cycle highs, reflects market maturity and a broader base compared to past years.

The current Log Cycle Z-Score reading on Binance suggests that Bitcoin is entering a historical range previously associated with the beginnings of rebalancing and bottom formation, rather than the end of major uptrends. While short-term volatility may persist, the bigger picture favors a gradual accumulation scenario rather than a structural breakdown.

Written by Arab Chain

Since 2025/12/16, Coinbase Premium has stayed below 0 continuously, signaling that the US is not interested in buying yet.

For trend trading followers, we wait till Coinbase and the US whales move.

Written by BQYoutube

In a classic, typical bear cycle, we witness Bitcoin price dropping below the cost basis of accumulation addresses. However, this hasn't happened yet. Currently, Bitcoin Accumulation Addresses Realized Price is at 74.6K. This level is very critical for the bears in Bitcoin.

Do you think BTC will drop below this level?

Written by burakkesmeci