After multiple requests from some followers, I’ve decided to open something private.
What I share publicly is only a fraction of the full picture. The market is a game of liquidity, timing, and understanding. Most people always arrive… too late.
Today, I’m officially opening The Alpha Board, a private group built for those who want to see the move before it happens, not after.
Inside, you’ll get: • Advanced market analysis ($BTC , Stocks, macro) • Key liquidity zones & forward scenarios • Smart money flow breakdowns • Clear market structure insights • Direct access + a serious community
This is NOT a signals group. This is where you build a real edge. If you’re tired of: - following the crowd - entering too late - not understanding why the market moves
Then this is exactly for you. Founder one-time access: $39 Limited spots available
Scan the QR code or click on the link to join instantly This post will be auto-deleted in 15 days
The market doesn’t reward the fastest. It rewards the most prepared.
Here's a rough visualization of how I see the most likely scenarios playing out. If you average them, you'll get a feel for the broad concept I have. I can absolutely be wrong, but it's my take on things currently.
Note that I give the diagonal (dotted) trend lines some importance in controlling the price movements as well as the horizontal support levels.
This falls in alignment with my other post on the odds I give these Bitcoin scenarios.
Google searches for cryptocurrencies are starting to rise again.
After a long period of declining public interest, the data is beginning to show renewed attention toward Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and other major names in the market.
We are still well below the levels of euphoria seen during previous major peaks, which makes this move even more interesting.
Retail attention may be starting to return ahead of a broader market recovery.
Google Trends doesn’t just show what people are searching for. It also helps us track when curiosity, interest, and speculation begin to return to the crypto market.
$BTC I’m starting to see old crypto exchanges shutting down their operations.
I’m also seeing many crypto influencers becoming discouraged, losing interest, and shifting their attention to completely different topics.
And, of course, the classic headlines are back again.
Hackers here. Hacks there. Fear everywhere.
I’ve been watching this market for more than 10 years, and the same stories keep repeating themselves.
That is a fractal too.
Market cycles repeat, but so do human emotions.
Fear, frustration, greed, disbelief, and disappointment often drive people to make decisions based on emotions, especially when the market refuses to confirm their biases or exposes mistakes in their analysis.
That is exactly why I keep talking about patience and the importance of trusting metrics with strong historical evidence and reliable backtesting.
During the last bull market, we helped thousands of people navigate the market.
During this bear market, many people have also thanked us for helping them understand what was happening before the narrative became obvious.
So I’ll repeat it again:
Stay confident. Stay calm. Be patient.
And most importantly, use good data, especially Onchain analysis.
I truly believe this is one of the most important keys to long term success when you treat crypto as an investment.
I once learned a saying that has stayed with me:
Real opportunities to build wealth often live exactly where fear, desperation, and disbelief are at their highest.
$BTC is moving sideways, yet the BitMEX Taker Buy/Sell Ratio is spiking to levels you rarely see.
It reminds me of some of the unusual market behavior on FTX shortly before its collapse:
• Open Interest surged • There was no meaningful unwinding • BTC traded at a noticeable premium to other exchanges • Order flow became increasingly abnormal
Some of the largest BitMEX Taker Buy/Sell Ratio spikes (UTC):
Hyperliquid has seen a drastic decline in social media mentions and is now liquidating the bulls.
We have already discussed the excessive leverage surrounding $HYPE .
I highly recommend reading this excellent post.
Bluechip
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$HYPE looks like it’s sitting on a trapdoor.
Here’s the simple version: liquidation levels show where too many traders could get wiped out if price moves against them. When a lot of traders are crowded on one side, price often gets pulled into those zones fast.
Right now, Hyperliquid is around $52.98, and the closest big liquidation pocket is below at roughly $52.38, just about 1.1% lower. What makes this especially interesting is that the pressure is heavily stacked on the long side, which means a small drop could trigger forced selling and create a sharper flush.
Base case for the near term: this setup looks cautious-to-bearish short term. If price slips a bit, it could cascade lower as crowded longs get forced out. That matters because liquidation moves are usually fast and emotional, not slow and orderly. For retail investors, this is a reminder that crowded trades can get punished quickly.
This is exactly why liquidation maps are so useful: they help you spot where the market may move before the big move happens. Proprietary insights like this are what make Alphractal such a powerful edge for understanding crypto in a simpler, smarter way.
Sequence of events: • $5 support perfectly respected after a very brief sweep of the lows (bounced from $4.99) • Channel breaks out, to the upside • Inverse H&S breaks out, to the upside (this is a confirmation the bottom is in) • Neckline of H&S perfectly retested and holds
Textbook TA here. Very clean moves.
I'm bullish $ABCL.US long-term and I have a decent size position. Next to $BTC this is my largest holding currently.
Bluechip
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Just for the record I'm bullish on AI-biotech company $ABCL
I'm bullish because: The company has incredible fundamentals that I think have been overlooked (meaning the company is undervalued imo). They've been cooking on their tech and vertical integration, while critics wrongly dismiss them as a sleeping giant or a relic of the pandemic era. This is the big mistake, imo.They have a fantastic team & very intelligent leadership (Carl Hansen is a big thinker and gives every indication of being a great leader).They are averse to share dilution.Biotech in general is a hot sector right now (most major biotech ETFs are breaking out, such as GNOM, IBB, XBI [SPDR S&P Biotech])$ABCL.US 's chart looks fantastic (see attached). From a TA-perspective, the chart has clearly bottomed, confirmed by the breakout of a massive, multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This foretells a big move ahead, assuming the right shoulder holds (that's the invalidation point-- around $2.90). In crypto terms, this is like a rare altcoin that actually has strong fundamentals and isn't just a picture of a dog on a coin. This is not a short-term hold for me. It's a multi-year hold, minimum, and maybe a decade-long hold. They have a drug called "ABCL635" that is close to its phase 2 results (see the vertical line I drew on the chart where I think this may be announced). If it's a success, this will be incredibly validating and positive for the company and price. If it fails then expect a big pull-back-- perhaps a drop of 50%. Even if this drug's phase 2 results are sub-par, the company still looks strong to me. The company is a powerful machine that is going to pump out drugs with innovative technology. This is all my opinion of course. I'm aware this isn't crypto-related, so I won't frequently post about it, in order to keep my channel crypto-focused. But just thought I'd share that I like the company and I have a position in it. Obviously this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I see here. I noticed you are into biotech as well, Income Sharks. This is one of the hotter plays in the biotech sector-- if not the hottest-- imo. $ABCL.US
Here’s the simple version: liquidation levels show where too many traders could get wiped out if price moves against them. When a lot of traders are crowded on one side, price often gets pulled into those zones fast.
Right now, Hyperliquid is around $52.98, and the closest big liquidation pocket is below at roughly $52.38, just about 1.1% lower. What makes this especially interesting is that the pressure is heavily stacked on the long side, which means a small drop could trigger forced selling and create a sharper flush.
Base case for the near term: this setup looks cautious-to-bearish short term. If price slips a bit, it could cascade lower as crowded longs get forced out. That matters because liquidation moves are usually fast and emotional, not slow and orderly. For retail investors, this is a reminder that crowded trades can get punished quickly.
This is exactly why liquidation maps are so useful: they help you spot where the market may move before the big move happens. Proprietary insights like this are what make Alphractal such a powerful edge for understanding crypto in a simpler, smarter way.
I warned you when $BTC was still above $66K. The level was clear: $66.7K was the key structural resistance. BTC failed to reclaim it and the rejection followed. Now we’re sitting around $62.4K, right where the move started to accelerate lower. This is why I keep saying: Don’t chase the move. Read the structure. The chart usually tells you before the narrative does.
Bluechip
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This is the power of these incredible metrics!
$BTC touched the exact midline of the Structural Market Bands chart.
$BTC ’s Adoption Score has remained at 1 for the past 15 days.
This means Bitcoin’s network adoption is currently at a low level relative to its historical trend, reflecting weaker network activity and connectivity compared to more active periods.
Moments like this are often observed near cycle bottoms, when investor participation is limited and bearish narratives tend to dominate market sentiment.
The metric is based on the Metcalfe Ratio and its historical distribution:
A score of 3 signals high adoption, above the 80th percentile. A score of 2 signals moderate adoption, between the historical median and the 80th percentile. A score of 1 signals low adoption, below the historical median. A similar pattern can also be observed in Dogecoin, Litecoin, and several other cryptocurrencies.
In other words, the best accumulation opportunities often emerge when participation is low and most investors are no longer interested.
Liquidity levels have shifted significantly upwards. A very high density of short liquidation pools has accumulated above the current price of $63,700.
Short Liquidations: $64,800 – $65,620 (Liquidation peak exceeds $150M) Long Liquidations: $62,980 – $63,460
The Fed Holds Rates Steady… But the Growing Divide Inside the FOMC Sends a More Dangerous Signal to Markets The U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, as inflation remains above its 2% target. But the more important story isn't the decision itself. It's what happened inside the FOMC. Three policymakers dissented from the majority and called for a 25-basis-point rate hike. This isn't just a temporary disagreement. It marks the second consecutive meeting where this split has emerged, highlighting growing concerns that inflation may prove more persistent than markets expect. Why is the concern growing? Rising energy prices linked to the conflict with Iran are bringing inflation risks back into focus, while continued spending and investment tied to the AI boom are supporting demand and economic activity. And this creates the Fed's real dilemma: If it keeps rates higher for longer, it could put further pressure on growth, markets, and credit. But if it begins easing monetary policy before inflation is clearly under control, it risks reigniting price pressures. So perhaps the most important question for markets is no longer: When will the Fed cut rates? It may now be: Is the tightening cycle really over, or is another rate hike back on the table? The September meeting could be even more sensitive, particularly if upcoming inflation data fail to show convincing signs of cooling. For markets, a renewed rate-hike scenario could push Treasury yields and the dollar higher, while increasing volatility across equities, gold, and other risk assets. The bottom line: The Fed didn't raise rates this time. But it sent a clear message: The fight against inflation isn't over. Markets that were discussing the timing of rate cuts just months ago may now find themselves facing a very different scenario. What do you think comes next: a Fed rate cut… or another hike?
• 44% of gross gamma expires • Current dealer-GEX proxy: −$116M per 1% move • With no equivalent replacement, modeled GEX resets to −$40M • Gamma flip falls from $62,849 to $61,949
That could remove much of the derivatives structure currently pinning $BTC near $65,000.
If price breaks higher, the model’s +5% scenario implies approximately $541M of dealer buying.
Direction is not guaranteed.
But above $65,000, the structure can shift from pinning price to chasing price.