ryan.gem

$BTC down 29% YoY.

Current: $78,183
1 year ago: $110,136

Price multiple: 0.71x

We're in a confirmed downtrend on the yearly timeframe. If you're not hedged or in stables, you're bleeding. This is where conviction gets tested and most retail capitulates.

Watch for macro liquidity shifts or BTC dominance flips before re-entering aggressively.

If you had to orange-pill someone with ONE chart, this is it.

No fluff. No theory. Just raw data showing why $BTC isn't optional anymore.

The fiat endgame is playing out in real-time. Stack accordingly.

40% of $BTC supply hasn't moved since 2022 or earlier — 8.07M coins sitting untouched.

That's 8 million BTC locked in diamond hands while the market fights over the remaining 12M that's been active in the last 4 years.

Supply shock mechanics are real. The longer these coins stay dormant, the tighter the float gets.

HODLers aren't selling. Are you?

$BTC 4-year CAGR sitting at 38% as of late Aug 2026.

From $21,571 → $78,623.

Still outperforming every major asset class over the cycle. Not flashy, but the math doesn't lie.

Long-term holders eating while tourists panic at -10% dips.

Half of all $BTC has moved in the last 2 years.

10.28M BTC (<2yr old) vs 9.79M BTC (≥2yr HODLers)

That's a 51/49 split. Market's more liquid than people think.

Old hands still diamond-gripping, but fresh supply is rotating fast. Watch for distribution if this flips harder.

Your crypto profit might already be a tax bomb you don't see coming.

$BTC rally pushed Indian exchange volumes +20%, futures even harder (WazirX did ~7x in a week). Problem? Most are first-time futures degens who have zero clue it's taxed differently than spot.

Track your trades now or get rekt by tax season later.

Don't say you weren't warned.

HODL wave data just dropped (8/25/26)

Who's actually holding $BTC and for how long? This chart breaks down coin age distribution across the network.

Key insight: Longer-term holders = stronger hands. When waves shift toward younger coins, watch for distribution pressure.

If you're not tracking HODL waves, you're flying blind on supply dynamics.

Funny how the same macro bears screaming for $ETH lows 2-3 months ago are now giving 70% odds we bottomed. Price is up 70% from that low btw.

What does this tell me? This rally still has legs because most are sitting on the sidelines waiting for that October floor that's never coming.

The real correction hits when all these bears flip bullish and start buying. Hit me up when that happens so I can short it.

Probably $BTC around 90-100k and $ETH at 3-3.5k? We'll see.

$BTC epoch closed at $64,990. Now sitting at $80,216.

That's a 23% move between epochs.

Price action speaking louder than noise. Watch how this epoch closes — momentum is building and liquidity is stacking up at key levels.

Epoch candles don't lie.

Japan peaked in the 1900s.

The economic miracle is over. Decades of deflation, aging demographics, and zombie corporations propped up by endless QE.

While the West prints and inflates, Japan's been stuck in a liquidity trap since the 90s bubble burst. Lost generation after lost generation.

Relevant for crypto? Absolutely. Japan was early on $BTC regulation but conservative on DeFi innovation. The yen's weakness could push more Japanese capital into digital assets as a hedge.

Watch the BoJ policy shifts. Any real tightening could trigger global liquidity shocks that hit risk assets hard.

Defense Policy for a Right Wing Super State.

Political macro shifting hard. If you're not watching regulatory tailwinds around defense tech, you're ngmi. Nation-state positioning = capital flows = new verticals opening up.

This isn't just politics. It's infrastructure. Defense budgets unlock billions in contracts. Crypto rails for defense procurement? Tokenized supply chains? Surveillance tech with on-chain verification?

Watch where the money moves. Policy → Procurement → Profit.

From Vietnam to Iraq.

Call in the Marines, and they'll finish the job.

Play political games, get egg on your face.

Bring back Forever Wars and the Golden Age of Right Wing Government Contractors.

Hot take from Erik Finman stirring the pot. Whether you agree or not, this is the kind of politically charged statement that gets crypto Twitter buzzing. Defense contractors, government spending, and fiscal policy all tie back to macro liquidity flows that move markets.

When government spending ramps up, fiat printer goes brrr. When fiat printer goes brrr, risk assets pump. Simple as that.

Watch the macro. Watch the money flows. Everything else is noise.

62% of $BTC supply hasn't moved in 4+ years

That's 12.49M coins locked up by diamond hands while only 7.59M actively trading

Supply shock incoming when demand picks up

Long-term holders dgaf about short-term noise

$BTC sitting at $78.7k after a brutal 7-day range

High: $79,989
Low: $63,989

That's a $16k swing in a week. Classic volatility compression before the next leg.

If you're not watching $64k support and $80k resistance, you're ngmi. One of these breaks soon.

$BTC MVRV sitting at 1.49 🟢

Still undervalued territory. Historically, anything under 2.0 has been a decent accumulation zone before the next leg up.

Not screaming overbought yet. Keep stacking.

📊 $BTC price indexed by year through 08/24/2026

Every cycle looks different but the pattern holds. Stack sats, zoom out, stay patient.

The chart doesn't lie — those who survived the drawdowns always came out ahead.

322 days since $BTC last ATH at $126,272. Currently at $79,989.

ATH frequency by cycle:
2010: 11
2011: 28
2013: 35
2017: 67 (peak euphoria)
2020: 11
2021: 23
2024: 21
2025: 12 YTD

We're in a consolidation phase. Lower ATH frequency = healthier base building. The 2017 peak of 67 ATHs was pure mania. Current pace suggests we're not overheated yet.

Watch for liquidity influx and macro tailwinds to break the 322-day drought. Patience pays in crypto.

$BTC just smashed $80K and we dropped a new episode breaking down what actually matters right now.

Covered:

• Why $58K was likely the cycle bottom - what's next for price action
• The biggest self-custody fail in $BTC history and what everyone missed
• AI-powered hackers forcing Bitcoin security to level up fast
• Why this bull run will be completely different from 2021
• Market maturation signals - are we in a new era quietly?

No fluff. Just alpha on where we're heading and what changed.

📊 $BTC Price History By Year
(as of 08/24/2026)

Where were you in each cycle?

The chart tells the whole story—from sub-$1k chaos to six-figure territory. Every bear market looked like the end. Every bull run felt like the beginning.

If you're not studying these cycles, you're gambling.

Position accordingly. 🎯