Ray Dalio: Rising Debt Risks Require More Gold and Bitcoin Exposure
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio said recent moves in the U.S. Treasury market reflect the late stage of a “Big Debt Cycle,” with rising debt supply, weaker demand for government bonds, and growing pressure on currencies. He warned that if debt burdens continue to rise, governments may be forced to choose between higher interest rates that hurt the economy or central bank money creation that devalues currencies. Dalio noted that U.S. federal debt has reached about $32 trillion, with annual interest payments around $1 trillion, and projected debt could rise to $55–60 trillion over the next decade without major adjustments. He recommended reducing exposure to bonds and increasing allocations to assets such as gold and a small amount of Bitcoin as protection against debt and currency devaluation risks.
Galaxy Research Backtest: Bitcoin’s 50-Day MA Reclaims Often Fail, 50-Week MA Offers Stronger Con...
Galaxy Research backtested Bitcoin’s historical bear markets using a rule of a 50%+ closing-price drawdown lasting at least 90 days, covering six completed cycles since 2011 and the current drawdown. The study found that 50-day moving average (50d MA) reclaims are fast but unreliable: 43 of 106 reclaims failed across past bears, and the first reclaim failed in every cycle. By contrast, the 50-week moving average (50w MA) provided a stronger signal, with only 2 failures out of 13 reclaims. BTC is currently trading around $77,500, up 32.4% from the June 30 low, with the 50w MA at $82,470. A weekly close above the 50w MA could provide stronger confirmation that the current cycle bottom is in.
According to CoinShares, Bitcoin is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation in the near term, with the $80,000 mark acting as a critical upper resistance level. Analysts suggest that a more definitive market breakout will likely require the Federal Reserve to clearly confirm that policy risks have shifted and that it is no longer leaning toward further monetary tightening. The recent Bitcoin rally has been primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, such as softening U.S. inflation and employment data, rather than crypto-native catalysts. Alongside this macro shift, on-chain data shows that whales have resumed accumulation.
YZi Labs-backed BounceBit to permanently shut down its L1 after 286.5M BB exploit
BounceBit said an attacker exploited a protocol-level authorization flaw in its Evmos-based chain, moving approximately 286.5 million BB from nine mainnet accounts without authorization. The project raised $6 million in a 2024 seed round co-led by Blockchain Capital and Breyer Capital, with participation from OKX Ventures and HTX Ventures, and later received a separate investment from Binance Labs (now YZi Labs). BounceBit will permanently sunset BounceBit Chain and reissue BB as a BEP-20 token on BNB Chain based on a pre-exploit snapshot. The 286.5 million BB moved by the attacker will not carry over to the new token. No private keys or wallets were compromised, and its CeDeFi, Prime and RWA products were unaffected.
Rust Supply Chain Attack Hits Widely Used Crates With Solana Ecosystem Exposure
Security researchers including SlowMist, Socket and StepSecurity reported a coordinated supply chain attack affecting arrayref@0.3.10, internment@0.8.7 and append-only-vec@0.1.9. The malicious releases introduced a typosquatted proc-macro1 dependency whose build script downloaded and executed a remote payload during Cargo builds, meaning simply compiling an affected dependency could compromise a developer or CI host. Rust’s security team removed the malicious releases and locked the maintainer account, saying the maintainer’s machine or publishing credentials were likely compromised. arrayref is widely used across the Rust ecosystem, including dependency chains involving Solana-related components, though this does not mean those downstream projects were compromised.
Bitcoin rebounds sharply, U.S. regulators accelerate crypto market rules, Citi prepares Bitcoin custody services, and institutions expand into digital assets. This week also saw continued growth in tokenization, Bitcoin treasury strategies, and AI-related crypto infrastructure. For the complete weekly curated reports, subscribe to our Substack:
Unitree’s Market Debut: Commercial Validation Still Hinges on Repeat Orders
On August 19, SoSoValue hosted a public X Space examining Unitree’s first day of trading, the commercial progress of embodied AI, the company’s competitive position, and how value may be distributed across the supply chain. The discussion featured Levi, co-founder of SoSoValue; Adam, an investor focused on embodied AI; and Echo, an industry practitioner. Their broad conclusion was that Unitree’s listing has given embodied AI a visible public-market reference point, but its valuation remains largely based on long-term expectations rather than proven commercial maturity. A Public Price Signal—and a More Visible Valuation Debate Unitree opened at RMB 1,100 on its first trading day before closing at RMB 845, up 460.34% from its RMB 150.80 offering price. The closing price implied a market capitalization of approximately RMB 341.8 billion, with turnover reaching RMB 23.1 billion. The initial rally reflected strong expectations for humanoid robotics. The subsequent pullback showed that investors remained divided over how much future progress had already been priced in. Private-market valuations can remain relatively stable between funding rounds. Once a company is publicly traded, its valuation is continuously reassessed against orders, revenue, earnings, and the pace of industry development. According to Unitree’s prospectus, the company generated RMB 392 million in revenue and RMB 94.5 million in attributable net profit in 2024. In the first nine months of 2025, revenue reached RMB 1.167 billion, while attributable net profit was RMB 105 million. Against a closing market capitalization of more than RMB 340 billion, the valuation already assumes a prolonged period of revenue growth, lower production costs, and wider adoption. Assessing Unitree at this stage therefore requires more than estimating the potential size of the humanoid-robot market. Investors must also consider whether the company’s orders, earnings, and technical capabilities can develop quickly enough to support those expectations. Levi noted during the Space that one trading day cannot determine Unitree’s long-term value. The listing has nevertheless introduced a continuous public price signal to an industry that was previously valued mainly through private funding rounds. That price reflects the market’s collective expectations. It is not, by itself, evidence that the underlying business has reached commercial maturity. Beyond Shipment Growth, the Key Question Is Whether Customers Reorder The discussion suggested that humanoid robots have made visible progress in locomotion and dynamic control. The more difficult constraints now lie in manipulation, task generalization, reliability, and customer returns. A robot completing a handling, sorting, or assembly demonstration is different from a robot performing the same task consistently in a factory. Industrial customers ultimately care about uptime, failure rates, maintenance costs, deployment complexity, and whether labor savings can justify the initial investment. Echo identified one particularly useful indicator: whether pilot deployments lead to repeat orders. Pilot numbers and shipment growth can demonstrate interest, but they do not necessarily show that customers are receiving sustainable economic value. Some projects may be funded through research budgets, government support, or demonstration programs. A customer expanding its deployment after the first trial provides stronger evidence that the product is delivering measurable returns in a specific use case. Unitree’s prospectus also acknowledges that high-performance general-purpose robots have yet to achieve mature commercial adoption across broader industrial applications. Existing deployments remain relatively limited and fragmented. It is therefore important to distinguish among prototypes, pilot deployments, initial purchases, and repeat orders. Each represents a different level of commercial validation. Unitree Has Established a Manufacturing Lead, but Its Platform Ambitions Remain Unproven Unitree’s current advantages are most visible in product delivery, cost control, supply-chain integration, and brand recognition. The prospectus states that Unitree shipped more than 5,500 humanoid robots in 2025, excluding dual-arm wheeled models. It currently offers more than ten products across bipedal, quadrupedal, wheeled-legged, and robotic-arm categories. Some technologies—including joint drives, mechanical structures, batteries, software, and algorithms—can be reused across different products. This supports faster iteration and helps spread development costs across a broader product portfolio. The listing also gives Unitree additional capital for research, manufacturing capacity, and market expansion. During the Space, one participant said that Unitree develops a large proportion of its core components internally. The prospectus confirms that the company develops and manufactures its own joint modules and has internal capabilities in motors and motion control. It does not, however, disclose a directly comparable figure supporting the claim that more than 90% of core components are developed in-house. Any specific self-sufficiency ratio should therefore be treated cautiously unless supported by further company disclosure. Manufacturing scale and cost advantages also do not automatically translate into a permanent moat. More companies are entering the humanoid-robot market, hardware performance gaps may narrow, and competition is likely to push selling prices lower. If Unitree remains primarily a hardware vendor, normalizing prices could eventually place pressure on margins and valuation multiples. The discussion framed the issue in simple terms: Unitree’s capabilities in the robot’s “body” are more visible than its capabilities in the “brain.” Adam argued that embodied AI requires hardware, models, and data to operate as a single feedback loop. Robots generate data through real-world deployment; that data improves the models; and better models should expand the range of tasks the hardware can perform. Only if this cycle becomes sustainable can a manufacturer begin to develop into a general-purpose platform. Unitree’s prospectus currently classifies its general-purpose humanoid embodied-AI model as being in the basic-research stage. External indicators of its model performance, developer ecosystem, and platform economics therefore remain limited. Levi consequently cautioned that it is still too early to conclude that Unitree will be the industry’s eventual winner. Upstream Data May Be Easier to Track, but the Risk Is Not Necessarily Lower With the eventual market leader still uncertain, the discussion also considered upstream segments such as motors, motion-control systems, reducers, bearings, batteries, sensors, simulation software, and data infrastructure. Compared with predicting which robot manufacturer will dominate, upstream research can draw on more conventional indicators such as order growth, content value per robot, capacity utilization, and customer concentration. That does not mean every company associated with the robotics supply chain will benefit equally. First, manufacturers such as Unitree are increasing their internal development of key components. Growth in robot shipments may therefore not translate proportionally into revenue for external suppliers. Second, some suppliers may have entered the robotics supply chain while still generating only a small share of total revenue from the sector. Rapid industry growth may have little immediate effect on their overall financial performance. Third, when capital crowds into a single theme, upstream valuations may price in demand well before orders materialize. Evaluating an upstream supplier still requires several specific questions: Has it entered the supply chains of leading manufacturers? What is its content value per robot? How much revenue currently comes from robotics? Can it maintain its margins? And do its customers have a credible path from pilot deployments to volume orders? The practical approach discussed in the Space was to monitor two tracks simultaneously: whether critical suppliers are securing recurring orders, and whether robot manufacturers are converting pilots into larger, repeat deployments. This article is based on the August 19 public Space hosted by SoSoValue and has been supplemented with information from Unitree’s prospectus and publicly available first-day trading data. The views attributed to participants are their own.
Nomura-Backed Laser Digital Japan Becomes First New Crypto Exchange in Japan in Four Years
Japan-based Nomura Securities-backed Laser Digital Japan has been approved as a crypto asset exchange service provider, becoming the first new firm to receive such registration in Japan in four years. Laser Digital will initially provide liquidity services to domestic virtual asset service providers and plans to later launch digital asset trading services for institutional investors. Japan has previously reclassified crypto assets as financial instruments, laying the regulatory foundation for potential products such as crypto ETFs.
WuBlockchain Weekly: Bitcoin Surges Sharply, Citi to Launch Bitcoin Custody Service and Trump Say...
1. BTC breaks above $77,500, nearly 20% gain in three days link OKX market data shows that BTC broke above $77,500 and traded at $77,100 at press time, marking a 20% gain in the past three days. ETH surged past $2,400 and is now quoted at $2,412, with a gain of over 25% in the past three days. According to CoinGlass data, around $1.254 billion in liquidations occurred across the network over the past 24 hours, including approximately $1.083 billion in short‑position liquidations, with 155,678 traders globally getting liquidated. The largest single liquidation order took place on Hyperliquid for BTC‑USD, worth $23.5968 million. Strategy holds 840,447 BTC with an average cost basis of $75,385. Based on Bitcoin’s current price, Strategy has broken even and recorded an unrealized paper profit of around $192 million. BitMine holds 5,815,164 ETH with an average cost basis of $3,366. Calculated at Ethereum’s current USD price, BitMine currently carries an unrealized paper loss of roughly $5.792 billion. On August 20, a total of 174,764 traders faced liquidations, with total liquidation value hitting $2.98 billion. A BTC‑USD position on Hyperliquid constituted the largest single liquidation at $48.8 million. This scale surpasses the $2.23 billion single‑day liquidations during the “tariff shock” in February 2025, ranking as the eighth‑largest liquidation event in cryptocurrency history. 2. SEC Proposes Regulation Crypto Assets: Issuance Exemptions & Conditional Safe‑Harbor for Certain Crypto Investment Contracts link The U.S. SEC has proposed “Regulation Crypto Assets” to establish a specialized securities‑issuance regime for certain investment contracts involving crypto assets. The proposal sets forth two exemptions from registration under the Securities Act: a one‑time applicable exemption permitting issuers to raise up to $5 million over a four‑year period, and another allowing issuers to raise up to $75 million every 12 months. Both exemptions mandate relevant information disclosure to investors, with the latter additionally requiring financial statements and ongoing reporting obligations. The proposal also introduces a conditional safe harbor, under which crypto assets may no longer be governed by the “investment contract” upon satisfying relevant conditions. Securities issued under exemptions of the new rules and certain secondary‑market transactions shall be exempt from state‑level securities registration and qualification requirements. The proposal will open a 60‑day public comment period upon publication in the Federal Register. 3. CFTC Chair: Crypto Market‑Structure Rules Will Move Forward Even Without Clarity Act Passage link Michael Selig, Chair of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), stated that the crypto industry will still receive regulatory rules even if Congress fails to pass the crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act. Selig noted that the CFTC is evaluating multiple crypto regulatory measures and may formulate relevant rules under existing statutory authority. The Clarity Act is currently stalled due to Senate disputes over ethics provisions, with a procedural vote expected in September. In addition, the CFTC is advancing regulatory rules for prediction‑market event contracts and plans to finalize relevant provisions soon, while soliciting public comments on “computational power futures” trading tied to AI computing power. Selig said the CFTC will collaborate with the Department of Commerce to develop standards for AI computing‑power futures to ensure such products meet regulatory requirements. 4. CME CEO Clashes With CFTC and Kalshi Over Prediction‑Market Regulation link CME CEO Terrence Duffy stated at a CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee meeting that certain prediction‑market contracts carry manipulation risks and called for tightened regulation. He pointed out that some self‑certified listed contracts, especially markets concerning political events, could harm industry credibility. CFTC Chair Michael Selig responded that the products referenced by Duffy are not available on U.S. markets. The two sides further discussed prediction‑market regulation. Selig stated the CFTC would push forward revisions to event‑contract rules and strengthen consumer‑protection measures. Subsequently, Duffy and Kalshi Chief Operating Officer Luana Lopes Lara debated market manipulation and regulatory capacity. Jurisdiction over prediction‑market regulation remains contested, with federal regulators and state authorities competing over the regulatory scope for event‑based contracts such as sports‑related ones. 5. Citi Launches Custody+ Platform; Digital‑Asset Custody Supporting BTC to Launch Later This Year link Citi announced the launch of its new‑generation custody service suite Custody+, delivering near‑real‑time and real‑time custody infrastructure for scenarios including continuous trading, shortened settlement cycles and digital assets. Citi stated that its digital‑asset custody service is expected to go live later this year, initially supporting Bitcoin (BTC), and will be integrated within the same service framework as traditional‑asset custody to deliver a unified custody experience for clients. Citi also noted that over 80 percent of its total custody event volume is already processed in real‑time. Custody+ will further incorporate instant settlement, real‑time liquidity management, foreign exchange and Citi Token Services among other capabilities. 6. Tether CEO: AI Products Covering Healthcare and Finance to Roll Out for Emerging Markets link Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino stated that the company is accelerating its expansion into technology and infrastructure sectors beyond financial services, with the next step being the roll‑out of basic AI applications for developing markets. Ardoino said smartphones have become relatively prevalent even in poorer regions, enabling simple AI models to run on‑device. Accordingly, Tether plans to develop AI tools covering vertical sectors such as healthcare, finance and sports, allowing ordinary users to leverage AI in daily life. Ardoino did not disclose specific business models for the AI business. He also revealed that Tether now has over 650 million global users. 7. Kraken Opens US Stock Trading for EEA Users, Supporting Over 7,000 US Equities link Kraken has opened U.S. stock trading for eligible users in the European Economic Area (EEA), covering more than 7,000 U.S. stocks. Within a single account, users can trade traditional U.S. equities, over 600 crypto‑assets and more than 700 tokenized xStocks. The service is provided by Payward Europe Digital Solutions, authorized under EU MiFID II, and is accessible via Kraken Pro and the Kraken App. Existing EEA users must accept additional agreements to gain access. 8. Metaplanet to Inject 2,100 BTC Into Super League to Build US Bitcoin‑Treasury Platform link Japan‑listed Bitcoin‑treasury firm Metaplanet (TSE: 3350) and Nasdaq‑listed Super League Enterprise (Nasdaq: SLE) announced a definitive agreement. Metaplanet intends to inject 2,100 BTC (approximately $132.1 million) and $2.5 million in cash into Super League through its U.S. subsidiary in exchange for common stock, preferred stock and warrants, with an initial total investment of roughly $134.6 million. Upon transaction closing, Super League will be renamed Superplanet, Inc., with a proposed ticker symbol change to SUPA. Metaplanet is expected to hold approximately 95.7% of its outstanding common stock. Superplanet will serve as Metaplanet’s U.S. Bitcoin‑treasury platform. 9. Trump: CFTC Chair Pushing Hyperliquid for Legal US Market Entry link U.S. President Donald Trump stated at a White‑House event with tech‑industry leaders that CFTC Chair Mike Selig approved the first “genuine” Bitcoin perpetual contract to be listed on a CFTC‑registered exchange back in May of this year. He added that efforts are underway to bring Hyperliquid into the U.S. market in a fully compliant and lawful manner. 10. Ondo Executive: Tokenization Mirrors Early‑Stage ETF Development Cycle link John Hoffman, Head of Product at Ondo Finance, said that asset tokenization follows a development path similar to early ETFs, gradually moving past market skepticism toward adoption. Ondo launched its tokenized US‑Treasury product OUSG in 2023, and its Treasury‑related products now hold around $2 billion in TVL. Ondo Global Markets, its tokenized stocks and ETF platform, hit $1 billion in TVL within eight months after launch. Hoffman noted that Ondo’s perpetual‑contract platform has recorded approximately $9 billion in notional trading volume in seven weeks since going live. The firm also plans to launch “smart portfolios” that bundle multiple tokenized stocks into a single token. These products are currently available only for non‑U.S. markets, and Ondo aims to offer tokenized products in the United States following legislative progress such as the Clarity Act. Binance founder CZ stated that “tokenization of everything” should be advanced. Tokenization is one of the best ways for nations to raise capital or attract foreign direct investment (FDI), and both countries and enterprises have incentives to sell tokenized stocks to global investors. CZ voiced support for advancing tokenization across all blockchains. Though this brings liquidity fragmentation, multi‑party parallel advancement represents the fastest way to scale the industry. High interoperability among assets from different issuers can mitigate liquidity fragmentation to some extent. Fundraising Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) plans further investment in Polymarket, with cumulative investment exceeding $1.6 billion. link Etched announced the completion of a $700 million financing round, valuing the company at $21 billion. link Ethena has entered into a $1 billion secured warehouse financing arrangement with FalconX. link NeoSoul closed an $11 million Pre‑A financing round, with participation from MH Ventures, Amber Group and others. link Beldex completed an $8 million financing round led by Sigma Capital. link Learn more, check out crypto-fundraising.info. Follow us Twitter: https://twitter.com/WuBlockchain Telegram: https://t.me/wublockchainenglish
CryptoQuant Analyst: Bitcoin Rally Fueled by Binance Short Squeeze, Pullback Risk Remains
CryptoQuant analyst BorisD said Bitcoin’s rally this week was driven primarily by concentrated short liquidations in Binance futures rather than spot buying. Binance’s Short Squeeze indicator rose to 6.94, its highest level since November 2024. He said much of the move was fueled by forced buying as short positions were closed, warning that Bitcoin could face a pullback if spot demand fails to take over once the squeeze loses momentum.
Strategy Reclaims Its BTC Cost Basis, Posts $192 Million in Unrealized Gains
According to the data, Strategy holds 840,447 BTC at an average cost of $75,385. With Bitcoin trading at $75,613, the company has moved back above its cost basis and is sitting on approximately $192 million in unrealized gains. BitMine holds 5,815,164 ETH at an average cost of $3,366. At Ethereum’s current price of $2,370, its unrealized loss stands at approximately $5.792 billion.
On August 20 (ET), spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of $606 million, marking four consecutive days of net inflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded total net inflows of $221 million, also extending their four-day net inflow streak.
Highlight Clip: U.S. SEC Chairman: The U.S. Is Entering a Historic Era of Crypto Regulatory Reform
U.S. SEC Chairman: The U.S. Is Entering a Historic Era of Crypto Regulatory Reform U.S. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins announced on August 19 a new rule proposal called “Regulation Crypto Assets.” Atkins said the blockchain industry has long faced a key question: how can projects raise capital to develop crypto assets while the networks where they will be used are still being built, and remain compliant with federal securities laws? The proposal would provide issuers of relevant investment contracts with a clear compliance path. Meanwhile, the SEC will continue supporting Congress as it advances the CLARITY Act.
JUST IN: MANTRA Chain Halts Network and Freezes All Transactions Amid Unidentified Incident
MANTRA Chain, an RWA-focused Layer 1 blockchain, has halted its network as a precaution while investigating an unidentified incident. All endpoints and transactions are currently frozen, temporarily affecting deposits and withdrawals. The team said it has yet to determine the root cause or provide a timeline for network restoration. MANTRA previously raised $11 million and later launched a $108.8 million ecosystem fund, with Nomura’s digital asset arm Laser Digital and Brevan Howard Digital among its capital and strategic partners. MANTRA is the project behind the OM token, which plunged approximately 90% within a short period in April 2025.
UK HMRC Sent More Than 81,000 Crypto Tax Warning Letters in 2025/26
According to Protos, the UK’s HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) sent more than 81,000 warning letters to crypto holders suspected of unpaid taxes during the 2025/26 financial year, nearly triple the 27,714 letters sent in 2024. HMRC said the unpaid taxes largely stem from gains made during the crypto bull market between 2022 and 2025. Selling, gifting, swapping or using crypto for purchases may trigger capital gains tax obligations, while unpaid taxes can result in penalties of up to 100% of the amount owed, plus interest. HMRC expects new powers next year to require offshore crypto firms to disclose customer information and estimates the measures could raise £315 million by 2030.
CZ: Tokenization Is One of the Best Ways for Countries to Attract Foreign Direct Investment, Supp...
Binance founder CZ said that “all assets should be tokenized.” Tokenization is one of the best ways for countries to raise funds or attract foreign direct investment (FDI), and countries and companies are incentivized to sell tokenized shares to global investors. CZ said he supports advancing tokenization on all blockchains. Although this would create liquidity fragmentation, simultaneous efforts by multiple parties would be the fastest way to expand the industry; if assets issued by different issuers have high fungibility, this could mitigate liquidity fragmentation to some extent.
Binance Employees Detained in UAE, Company Says They Were Questioned Over Third-Party Fund Flows
The New York Times reported that two Binance employees were detained by UAE authorities in recent weeks as part of an investigation into potential financial crimes involving the crypto platform. Binance told Reuters that a small number of employees were asked to provide statements as part of a routine inquiry into third-party fund flows through a Binance client money account. The company said the employees were not targets of the investigation and were later released. Binance added that it is working with Dubai Police and other UAE authorities to establish coordination procedures for such inquiries.
Franklin Templeton Plans to Integrate Tokenized Assets Into Traditional Funds
Franklin Templeton plans to integrate tokenized assets into traditional investment funds after receiving SEC clearance for digitally native products to be used within conventional funds. The firm intends to use its tokenized money market fund, Franklin OnChain U.S. Government Money Fund (BENJI), as a holding or collateral asset within ETFs and mutual funds. The move could take effect as early as Q4 and expands Franklin’s blockchain strategy from issuing tokenized versions of traditional assets to using tokenized assets in fund management. Franklin currently manages about $2.6 billion in tokenized money market fund assets and plans to launch additional tokenized products that could be used as cash or collateral across its fund lineup.
CFTC Chair: Crypto Market Structure Rules Will Come Regardless of Clarity Act Outcome
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig said the crypto industry will receive market structure rules even if Congress fails to pass the Clarity Act. Selig said the agency is evaluating potential crypto regulations and has the authority under existing laws to establish rules if legislative efforts stall. The Clarity Act, which could give the CFTC primary oversight of digital assets, has faced delays in the Senate over disputes surrounding ethics provisions. The agency is also working to finalize rules for prediction market event contracts and has launched a public consultation on “compute” futures tied to AI infrastructure. Selig said the CFTC is coordinating with the Commerce Department on standards for AI compute futures to ensure only appropriate products enter the market.
2026 Q2 CEX Trading Data Review: Whose OI and Trading Volume Were Inflated?
An analysis of Q2 CEX data examined trading volume-to-reserve (Vol/PoR) and open interest-to-reserve (OI/PoR) ratios across eight major exchanges, with Hyperliquid used as the benchmark. Binance and OKX remained within normal ranges, while Bybit’s higher Vol/PoR ratio was mainly driven by declining reserves. KuCoin’s previously elevated trading volume normalized after incentive programs were reduced, but MEXC and Gate continued to show elevated ratios, with MEXC’s derivatives Vol/PoR reaching 3.73x and Gate’s total Vol/PoR rising to 3.25x. In OI analysis, MEXC recorded the highest OI/PoR ratio at 3.06x, followed by Gate at 2.33x, while KuCoin and HTX showed unusually high OI-to-volume ratios. RWA perpetual trading expanded in Q2, with SanDisk and SK hynix among the largest contributors, although tokenized equity spot markets remained too small to materially affect reserve-based metrics. As exchange reserves declined during the quarter, some platforms’ reported trading activity and open interest did not fall proportionally, widening the gap between reported metrics and underlying capital levels.
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