BTC POST

Bitcoin is now deep into its 4-year cycle and the structure deserves respect.
We are currently in month 38 out of an average 48-month cycle. Historically, this is the phase where momentum fades, sentiment deteriorates, and price action becomes unforgiving.
$BTC
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Right now, Bitcoin is closing its third consecutive month below the 10-month moving average, and is on track to print a fourth red monthly candle in a row something we haven’t seen since 2018.
That alone doesn’t guarantee anything. But context matters. The recent move toward $98,000 increasingly looks like a counter-trend rally, not the start of a new expansion phase.
More importantly, Bitcoin is showing a clear divergence from other asset classes, a behavior that has historically appeared during cyclical transitions rather than during sustained bull legs.
I don’t enjoy being bearish especially on Bitcoin.
I rarely short markets, and I fundamentally believe that high-quality asset classes do not stay suppressed forever. My default stance is bullish. Always has been. But markets are not driven by belief alone.
They are driven by cycles, liquidity, and sentiment and Bitcoin has respected its 4-year rhythm with remarkable consistency across every prior cycle.
This is the uncomfortable truth many prefer to ignore:
You can be very bullish on fundamentals while still acknowledging that timing matters.
Every cycle has a phase where optimism overstays its welcome. Where narratives stretch to defend price. Where hope replaces confirmation. And right now, a large portion of bullish discourse on X is less about objective analysis and more about incentives selling services, funds, access, or clout. That doesn’t make people malicious. It makes them human.
Cycle declines are not about fundamentals breaking. They are about sentiment being reset.

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