Selma Kacvinsky BiXr

Bitcoin (BTC) has just gone through its worst capitulation levels since 2014, but charts are showing signs of a possible imminent recovery in upcoming weeks/months.

Source: CryptoChan

In a recent publication, lead investment manager VanEck reported that BTC had already fired 8 out of 12 capitulation signals. Among these are the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-score, the 49% drawdown from all-time high prices, net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), and percentage supply in profit.

Source: Artemis XYZ

At some point in the last 3 months, the flagship cryptocurrency had fired all 12 signals, indicating a likely bottoming out in preparation for a full-on rally.

Bitcoin breaks above consolidation and taps $69K

At writing time, BTC had broken above its months-long consolidation between $62K and $64K, gained 7.02%, and reached a price of $69,081.

Its MVRV Z-score read 0.53, indicating entry into a neutral zone where price is well supported by actual buyer cost basis.

Additionally, the coin’s apparent demand has turned positive for the first time since February 2026, reaching roughly +25,000 BTC. This indicates an exhaustion in selling pressure and is historically associated with an 18.1% median gain ($81,489) over 60 days at a 78% win rate. 

Further analysis 

Today, Bitcoin flipped its multi-month upper resistance into a new support level when its price rose above $65,000.

The next major resistance lies at $71,300 – $71,500, closely aligned with its 200-day moving average. After that would be the macro hurdle level at $75,000 – $76,638. Crossing this would signal a definitive end to the macro bearish trend. Supporting this would be a Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 50, indicating bulls overtaking bears in the market.

Source: TradingView

Core Market Drivers

Several events have contributed to the recent pump and may support future positive price movements. The first is the US bond buyback operation, which has weakened the dollar and reduced its bond yield, effectively rerouting investor interest to risky assets like Bitcoin.

Another is institutional demand, with spot Bitcoin ETFs returning to consecutive daily net inflows.

A third is the September CLARITY Act vote, an event that will be the decisive factor for long-term institutional sentiment.

Take it to the bank! https://t.co/htvzeyEece

— Senator Cynthia Lummis (@SenLummis) August 18, 2026

Other factors that would affect BTC price would be Fed interest rate changes and developments in the Middle East conflict.

Tutorial (TUT) has suddenly become one of the market’s biggest movers after an explosive rally pushed the price to a record high of around $0.29, marking gains of more than 1,100% in just two days before a sharp reversal. The move was accompanied by a dramatic increase in derivatives activity, with open interest surging and liquidations climbing sharply as traders piled into leveraged positions. 

At the same time, TUT has an underlying AI-education narrative, with its Tutorial AI app and learning platform already live and additional features planned for Q3 2026. With speculation now cooling after the parabolic advance, the bigger question is whether TUT’s fundamentals can support the token beyond the initial hype.

What Is Tutorial Crypto and Why Is TUT Price Rising?

TUT is a BNB Chain-based token tied to Tutorial’s AI-powered crypto and blockchain education ecosystem. Tutorial describes TUT as a memecoin created by builders, while its ecosystem has expanded into an AI learning platform. Its existing products include Tutorial AI, an AI-assisted learning platform, and tools for studying from videos, articles, photos and audio. 

The project says TUT is used within the ecosystem for rewards, access and participation. Here’s why the price exploded. 

Explosive speculative demand: TUT gained more than 1,100% in two days and reached an ATH of about $0.2903. 

Derivatives activity exploded: 24-hour futures volume reportedly reached about $3.34 billion, more than 23 times its market cap. 

Aster perpetual listing: Recent market reports linked part of the initial acceleration to TUT perpetuals becoming available on Aster, bringing new leveraged trading activity. 

Supply-burn narrative: Recent market coverage has also pointed to a token-burn development as another catalyst behind renewed interest. 

AI narrative: The project’s live AI-learning products and upcoming Q3 features provide a fundamental story alongside the speculation. 

Tutorial (TUT) Price Analysis

TUT accelerated sharply from its earlier trading range before entering a near-parabolic advance. Price reached approximately $0.29, establishing a new all-time high before facing aggressive profit-taking. The latest 4H candle shows a sharp rejection, with TUT falling toward $0.13.

Open interest surged above $80 million during the rally before falling back toward $50.17 million, indicating a significant deleveraging phase. Funding rates turned extremely positive during the price spike, showing that long positioning became heavily crowded. The subsequent liquidation spike confirms that the reversal forced substantial leveraged positions out of the market.

The decline in OI alongside the price correction suggests that part of the excess leverage has already been flushed from the market. The key question now is whether TUT can establish a base after the leverage reset rather than immediately attempting another parabolic move. A recovery accompanied by controlled OI growth and less-extreme funding would be more constructive than another sharp rise driven by crowded leverage.

Is This Rally Sustainable?

Tutorial (TUT) price rally may need to cool before another sustained move higher. After reaching around $0.29, the token has corrected toward $0.13, while open interest has fallen sharply from its peak, suggesting that much of the leverage has already been flushed. For traders, $0.15–$0.16 is the first recovery zone, followed by $0.18–$0.20. A break above $0.20 could open the path toward $0.24–$0.25, while a retest of $0.29–$0.30 would require a much stronger recovery. On the downside, losing $0.12 could expose TUT to $0.10–$0.11.