nazir_in4603

For thirty straight months, the Federal Reserve pulled more than $2 trillion out of global markets — shrinking its balance sheet from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion.
The most aggressive tightening cycle since Paul Volcker.
And tonight, at midnight…
It ends.
Quantitative Tightening is officially over.
The data paints a picture no analyst expected to line up this perfectly:
86.4% probability of a December rate cut
Consumer sentiment: 51 — the second-weakest ever recorded
Manufacturing: 8 consecutive months of contraction
ADP estimates: ~13,500 jobs lost weekly
And yet the pivot arrives not through panic — but through precision.
The Fed says reserves have returned to “ample.” No repo crisis. No liquidity seizure. No 2019 déjà vu.
A controlled glide into neutral.
Now everything pivots.
Treasury funding pressure eases.
Liquidity stops draining and begins to turn.
Risk assets finally trade without the shadow of a shrinking Fed balance sheet.
December 9 will deliver the final FOMC decision of the year — a cut toward 3.50–3.75% is nearly baked in.
But the real turning point already happened:
Today marked the transition from extraction to equilibrium.
The ripple effects? Massive.
Bond markets lose their biggest forced seller
Equities lose a major headwind
The dollar’s advantage narrows as rate spreads compress
This isn’t a forecast.
It’s a timestamp.
The tightening cycle that shaped 2022–2025 ended as this month began.
Markets built for scarcity now enter a new gravitational field.
Those clinging to the old rules will get hit the hardest.
The calendar shifted.
So did the entire regime.
$BTC