SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is around 1.78% wide. The uptrend has lasted 5 hours 15 minutes, with the largest recorded price increase at 15.25%. If price loses this support zone, the trend will likely reverse downward.
SC02 M15 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + meets positive simplification with a previously profitable Long order, the current support zone is around 7.69% wide. The uptrend has lasted 1 day 7 hours 45 minutes, with the largest recorded price increase at 48.32%. If price loses this support zone, the trend will likely reverse downward.
SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry contains POC + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is around 0.83% wide. The uptrend has lasted 3 hours 59 minutes, with the largest recorded price increase at 7.68%. If price loses this support zone, the trend will likely reverse downward.
SC02 M1 - pending Long order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current support zone is around 3.16% wide. The uptrend has lasted 2 hours 42 minutes, with the largest recorded price increase at 24.71%. If price loses this support zone, the trend will likely reverse downward.
📊 TRADING PERFORMANCE & FEAR AND GREED INDEX (FGI) REPORT – UPDATED 15/08/2026
The latest statistical data shows that the correlation between FGI and Win Rate remains weak and continues to lean negative, with r ≈ -0.285. This suggests that FGI is not suitable as a standalone tool for determining order entries, but it can still be useful for quantifying risk. Trading performance generally tends to deteriorate as market sentiment moves into extreme optimism, making FGI more appropriate as an early risk-warning indicator rather than a signal for expanding profit expectations.
Below is a summary of Win Rate (WR), minimum breakeven R:R, and the number of recorded days (n) across different sentiment zones:
Update 2026-08-15, based on community-wide trading
📊 The average win rate is 46.75%
🏆 The highest daily win rate was 78.08% on 2026-04-01. The lowest daily win rate was 15.69% on 2026-01-25
📅 Wednesday has the highest average win rate at 47.11%. Sunday has the lowest average win rate at 46.57%
⏱️ The highest 7-day average win rate was 63.27% for the period ending 2026-04-05. The lowest was 35.60% for the period ending 2026-06-24
⚖️ The number of days with a win rate above the overall average is 360. The number of days with a win rate at or below the overall average is 414
📈 The number of days with a win rate above 50% is 220. The number of days with a win rate between 40% and 50% is 417. The number of days with a win rate below 40% is 137
$VELVET – Liquidation Map (7 Days) – Current Price 0.868
🔎 The 7-day liquidation map shows roughly 1.8 million in short liquidations above the current price, significantly exceeding approximately 800K in long liquidations below. The overall liquidity structure therefore leans strongly to the upside, although a major long-liquidation pocket sits immediately below price.
📉 Below the market, long-liquidation liquidity is heavily concentrated around 0.860–0.844, with 0.844 representing one of the largest individual clusters on the map. Additional downside liquidity appears around 0.776–0.760. Losing 0.860 would increase the probability of a sweep toward 0.844.
📈 Above the market, nearby short-liquidation liquidity remains relatively light across 0.872–0.920 before building more clearly around 1.044–1.092. The largest upside clusters sit further away across 1.212–1.268, particularly around 1.232–1.268. A break above 0.920 would bring 1.044–1.092 into focus.
🧭 The near-term setup is relatively balanced: the 0.860–0.844 cluster is close enough to be swept first, while total short-liquidation exposure above is more than twice as large. Holding 0.860 and breaking 0.920 would tilt the setup toward 1.044–1.092, whereas losing 0.860 would open the path toward 0.844.
Upcoming unlock schedule for 50 tokens. Personally, I only focus on Futures trading when it is a Cliff Unlock event and the unlocked amount exceeds 25% of daily trading volume. If you are focused on long-term investing, these events are still worth monitoring to help optimize your entry points after each unlock.
Currently, there are 6 notable unlock events where the unlock volume is high relative to daily trading volume:
Crypto Market Overview for August 10–15: Bitcoin Retreats from $65,000 as Capital Flows and Volatility Cool
📉 Bitcoin started the week around $64,800–$65,200, briefly moved above $65,300, but failed to sustain the advance and slipped toward $62,800–$63,100 by the end of the week. Ethereum traded in a narrower range around $1,880–$1,910, while the broader market shifted toward sideways to slightly weaker conditions as liquidity faded into the weekend.
🏦 Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded solid inflows early in the week, indicating that institutional demand remained present. However, several outflow sessions later reduced short-term momentum, reflecting a mix of selective accumulation and profit-taking.
📊 Funding rates for BTC and ETH remained mostly neutral to slightly positive, while open interest showed no sharp expansion and liquidations stayed moderate. In the options market, short-term Bitcoin implied volatility continued to compress, with 1-week ATM IV around 26%, suggesting limited expectations for an immediate breakout.
🐋 On-chain data showed net BTC flows toward major exchanges, potentially increasing near-term sell-side supply. At the same time, large whale wallets continued to accumulate, creating a divergence between short-term supply pressure and medium-term structural support.
💵 Stablecoin market capitalization remained broadly flat, suggesting that fresh liquidity has yet to expand enough to drive a stronger move. Altcoins remained highly selective, while token unlocks in projects including $AVAX , $ARB , $APT and SEI could add localized supply pressure.
🔎 In the near term, $62,500–$63,000 remains an important support area for Bitcoin, while $65,000–$65,500 is the key zone that needs to be reclaimed to improve the price structure. With ETF flows, liquidity and IV still lacking a strong directional signal, range-bound trading may remain dominant until a new catalyst emerges.
Global chemicals market overview for the week of August 10–15, 2026 showed rising cost pressure from energy, while weak downstream demand continued to limit broad-based price gains
🛢 Crude oil’s weekly advance continued to spill over into petrochemicals and feedstocks across Asia. China methanol rose around 4.9–5%, butadiene gained nearly 5%, while benzene, propylene, styrene and PTA were generally steadier or posted mild recoveries after earlier declines.
🏭 Polymers reacted more slowly, with PP and LLDPE in China rising only around 1.5–1.7%, while PVC was broadly flat. Higher naphtha and cracker feedstock costs supported prices, but cautious demand from packaging, automotive and construction limited producers’ ability to fully pass costs on to buyers.
🌾 Fertilizers remained mixed as China urea fell around 1.7%, while ammonia and phosphate prices stayed elevated. The divergence suggests improving urea supply, while other chains continue to reflect the lingering impact of earlier Middle East supply disruptions.
🌍 Elsewhere, excess capacity in Asia continued to pressure caustic soda, acetic acid and parts of the phenolics chain. No new systemic plant disruptions emerged during the week, meaning geopolitical risks were reflected mainly through energy, naphtha and logistics costs rather than widespread product shortages.
📊 Overall, the market remains more “cost-push” than “demand-pull.” Over the next 1–2 weeks, petrochemicals may stay supported if crude remains elevated, PE/PP could trade sideways to slightly higher, while urea may remain under pressure if supply continues to improve. Hormuz developments and crude oil prices remain the key variables to watch.
Global Energy Market Overview for August 10–15, 2026 — Hormuz risks lift oil prices while demand signals remain cautious
🛢️ Crude oil ended the week up around 5–6%, with Brent near $88.5 per barrel and WTI around $82.4. The main drivers were stalled U.S.–Iran negotiations, attacks on oil tankers, and concerns that energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz could remain constrained.
📦 However, underlying supply-demand conditions do not fully support a sustained rally. U.S. crude inventories rose by 17.4 million barrels, the largest increase in more than 3.5 years, while both OPEC and the IEA lowered their 2026 oil demand outlooks. At the same time, the IEA estimates the market is still facing a supply deficit of around 1.8 million barrels per day this quarter due to Hormuz-related disruptions.
🚢 Physical market tightness remains visible in shipping and refining. VLCC freight rates stayed above $100,000 per day on several major routes, while diesel and jet fuel crack spreads remained elevated amid constrained refining capacity and relatively tight middle-distillate supplies.
🔥 Natural gas markets continued to diverge by region. European TTF and Asian JKM prices remained supported by LNG supply risks and import competition, while U.S. Henry Hub held around $2.7–3 per MMBtu thanks to strong domestic production and relatively comfortable inventories.
🌏 Asian demand has yet to show a strong recovery, with Chinese crude imports remaining below normal levels in recent months. This has helped limit some of oil’s upside despite persistent geopolitical premiums and elevated logistics costs.
📊 In the near term, oil prices are likely to remain highly sensitive to developments around Hormuz. Continued restrictions on flows through the strait could keep prices elevated, while diplomatic progress, further U.S. inventory builds, or weaker-than-expected demand data could trigger a correction.
$POL – Liquidation Map (7 Days) – Current Price 0.0751 🔎 The 7-day liquidation map shows roughly 2.7 million in short liquidations above the current price, significantly exceeding approximately 1.6 million in long liquidations below. The liquidity structure therefore leans clearly to the upside, while the first meaningful short-liquidation clusters also sit relatively close to price. 📈 Above the market, short-liquidation liquidity begins building immediately around 0.0756–0.0762 and increases sharply across 0.0768–0.0774. The strongest nearby cluster sits around 0.0768, with additional liquidity remaining elevated across 0.0780–0.0798. A break above 0.0756 would increase the probability of an extension toward 0.0768–0.0774.
📉 Below the market, the nearest long-liquidation liquidity is concentrated around 0.0743–0.0737 before becoming denser across 0.0729–0.0717. The strongest downside cluster sits near 0.0723. Losing 0.0743 would increase the probability of a sweep toward 0.0737–0.0729.
🧭 The higher-probability scenario is an initial move toward 0.0756–0.0774 because upside liquidity is both larger overall and closer. A breakout could shift focus toward 0.0780–0.0798, while a loss of 0.0743 would strengthen the downside long-sweep scenario toward 0.0737–0.0723.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry contains POC + meets positive simplification with a previously highly profitable Short order, the current resistance zone is around 0.71% wide. The downtrend has lasted 17 hours 45 minutes, with the largest recorded price decline at 6.16%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend will likely reverse upward.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is around 6.83% wide. The downtrend has lasted 9 hours 35 minutes, with the largest recorded price decline at 35.68%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend will likely reverse upward.
Agricultural Market Overview for the Week of August 10–15, 2026
🌾 Agricultural markets leaned positive over the past week, led by grains, with the August 12 WASDE report serving as the main catalyst. USDA cut U.S. corn yield to 180.7 bushels per acre and lowered ending stocks to around 1.653 billion bushels, providing strong support for corn prices after the release.
🌽 Wheat also strengthened as Black Sea logistics risks increased. Operations at several Russian ports faced disruptions, while USDA lowered its wheat export forecasts for Russia and Ukraine. Supply concerns encouraged buyers to seek alternative origins and added further support to CBOT prices.
🌱 Soybeans posted more moderate gains as the U.S. supply outlook remained relatively balanced. Sinograin auctions and the potential for stronger purchases of U.S. soybeans supported near-term demand, although large Brazilian supplies continued to limit upside. Conab currently estimates Brazil’s total grain production at around 360.8 million tonnes.
🍬 Soft commodities were mixed. Sugar stood out with a weekly gain of around 9.5% amid weather concerns, while coffee and cocoa remained under pressure as markets assessed a more favorable supply outlook. Speculative flows were generally more concentrated in grains.
📊 Looking ahead, markets are likely to focus on U.S. Crop Progress data, Corn Belt weather, actual export demand and developments in the Black Sea. Corn and wheat retain support following WASDE, although ample South American supply and improving weather conditions could limit further gains.
$PUMP – Liquidation Map (7 Days) – Current Price 0.002803
🔎 The 7-day liquidation map shows roughly 7.5–8 million in long liquidations below the current price, exceeding approximately 5–5.5 million in short liquidations above. The overall liquidity structure therefore leans to the downside, although upside clusters remain large enough to generate volatility if price recovers.
📉 Below the market, long-liquidation liquidity is concentrated around 0.002711–0.002647, with notable clusters near 0.002647 and 0.002615. Further downside liquidity remains elevated across 0.002583–0.002551. Losing 0.002711 would increase the probability of a sweep toward 0.002679–0.002647.
📈 Above the market, short-liquidation liquidity begins building around 0.002839–0.002887 and becomes denser across 0.002923–0.003007. Notable clusters sit near 0.002887, 0.002967 and 0.003007–0.003039. A break above 0.002839 would bring 0.002887–0.002923 into focus.
🧭 The near-term setup modestly favors an initial downside liquidity test because total long-liquidation exposure is materially larger. Conversely, holding above 0.002803 and breaking 0.002839 would shift attention toward a short-liquidation sweep across 0.002887–0.002923, followed by 0.002967–0.003007.
SC02 M5 - pending Short order. Entry lies within LVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is around 1.01% wide. The downtrend has lasted 7 hours 50 minutes, with the largest recorded price decline at 5.30%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend will likely reverse upward.
SC02 M1 - pending Short order. Entry lies within HVN + not affected by any weak zone, the current resistance zone is around 4.30% wide. The downtrend has lasted 2 hours 14 minutes, with the largest recorded price decline at 28.14%. If price breaks above this resistance zone, the trend will likely reverse upward.
Global Equity Market Overview, August 10–15: Asia Leads as U.S. Stocks Hold Near Record Highs
🌍 Global equity markets remained divided over the past week. In the U.S., the S&P 500 gained around 0.4% and stayed near record territory, while the Nasdaq edged higher and the Dow Jones fell about 0.6%. Europe was mostly flat to slightly lower, while Japan and South Korea stood out on strength in semiconductors, memory and AI-related expectations.
🇺🇸 U.S. economic data generally pointed to easing price pressures and softer demand. CPI, PPI and retail sales reinforced expectations that the Fed may not need to tighten further in September, supporting risk assets. At the same time, weaker consumer signals increased attention on the pace of economic cooling.
💻 Q2 earnings continued to provide support as corporate results remained broadly solid. Within technology, flows showed signs of broadening beyond selected mega-caps toward memory, storage and AI infrastructure, while Japan and South Korea benefited more directly from semiconductor strength.
🔄 Market leadership also became more diversified. Energy was supported by oil prices and Hormuz tensions, while Financials and Defense improved and small- and mid-cap stocks participated more strongly in several sessions. Consumer Discretionary lagged as the U.S. consumption outlook became more cautious.
⚠️ Oil volatility and geopolitical risks remain potential sources of rapid sentiment shifts, although they were not enough to reverse the broader weekly trend. The VIX stayed low, indicating relatively stable risk sentiment.
📊 In the near term, the bias remains sideways to slightly positive if U.S. data continue to soften and earnings remain stable. Markets will focus next week on Fed signals, remaining earnings releases and oil developments to assess whether the current rotation can broaden further.
$HOME – Liquidation Map (7 Days) – Current Price 0.0092
🔎 The 7-day liquidation map shows roughly 3.2–3.3 million in long liquidations below the current price, exceeding approximately 2.4 million in short liquidations above. The liquidity structure therefore leans to the downside, while meaningful downside clusters also sit closer to the current price.
📉 Below the market, long-liquidation liquidity is concentrated immediately around 0.00909–0.00897 and remains elevated across 0.00885–0.00873. Larger downside clusters also appear around 0.00861–0.00849. Losing 0.00909 would increase the probability of a sweep toward 0.00897–0.00885.
📈 Above the market, short-liquidation liquidity remains relatively light around 0.00957–0.00981 before increasing from 0.01021. The heaviest upside clusters sit across 0.01033–0.01057, with several large concentrations around 0.01045–0.01057. A break above 0.00981 would bring 0.01021–0.01033 into focus.
🧭 The near-term setup favors an initial test of 0.00909–0.00885 because downside liquidity is both larger overall and closer. Conversely, holding 0.0092 and breaking above 0.00981 would shift attention toward a short-liquidation sweep across 0.01021–0.01057.