片刻

🧵 Global Macro Update: CPI, Liquidity & Crypto Positioning 1️⃣ CPI Is the Macro Trigger U.S. CPI has cooled significantly from 2022 highs and is now hovering near the Fed’s target range. Headline inflation ≈ moderating. Core inflation = sticky but stabilizing. Translation: The inflation shock cycle is largely behind us. 2️⃣ Why This Matters for Crypto Crypto doesn’t trade on inflation alone. It trades on liquidity expectations. CPI ↓ → Fed tightening pauses → Rate cuts priced → Liquidity expectations ↑ And liquidity is the oxygen for BTC & ETH. 3️⃣ The Liquidity Cycle 2022: High CPI → Aggressive hikes → Liquidity drain → BTC bear market. 2023–2025-Early 2026: Disinflation trend → Slower tightening → Stability in yields → Risk appetite returns. We are no longer in a liquidity contraction regime. We are transitioning toward neutral → potentially expansionary. That’s structurally bullish. 4️⃣ $BTC BTC Macro Positioning BTC behaves like: A high-beta liquidity asset in tightening cycles A macro hedge during monetary expansion With CPI cooling: ✔ Rate volatility declines ✔ Dollar strength moderates ✔ Financial conditions ease That creates tailwinds for BTC. 5️⃣ $ETH ETH & Risk Layer ETH is more sensitive to: Risk appetite Tech equity correlations Capital rotation within crypto If CPI continues moderating and cuts get priced in, ETH typically outperforms in mid-cycle liquidity expansions. 6️⃣ The Real Risk The only macro threat here: If CPI re-accelerates. That would: → Push yields higher → Strengthen USD → Tighten liquidity again Until that happens, macro backdrop remains constructive. 7️⃣ Big Picture We’ve moved from: Inflation Shock → Policy Panic → Liquidity Crunch To: Disinflation → Policy Patience → Liquidity Stabilization Crypto thrives in stabilization turning to expansion. Macro regime has shifted. #WriteToEarnUpgrade #CPIWatch #Macro #CryptoMarkets #Fed