GEMINI

Dealers are short gamma between 58k and 74k, with the largest concentration around 63k. In this setup, their hedging activity tends to amplify moves rather than absorb them. If price rises they have to buy more and if it falls they have to sell more, which reinforces the direction. That makes the market more sensitive to breakouts, especially on the downside and increases the chance of sharp, fast reactions once key levels break.

The market is currently pulling back but the long term structure is still holding firm. The LTH Cost Basis continues to rise and is now around $38.2K, showing that long term holders are accumulating at higher levels. At the same time, the Realized Price is trending down near $55.0K.

If this pattern continues, both metrics are likely to compress into a key support corridor between $43K and $51K within the next quarter. That range could become a critical decision zone for the market’s next major move.

Selling pressure on Coinbase continues to hold. The Coinbase Premium Gap has stayed negative for its longest stretch since November 2024, showing that sellers are still dominating and demand remains weak on the platform.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

As #Bitcoin continues its correction, volatility is rising due to ongoing macro uncertainty, incomplete economic data after the shutdown and geopolitical tensions putting pressure on the market. The situation is made worse by high leverage in the derivatives market, where liquidations trigger chain reactions that intensify price movements.

Since late summer, volatility has been trending higher, with a major spike during the large liquidation event on October 10, and further elevated swings seen in November, late January, and early February. Overall, the market remains fragile, with sharp movements likely to continue.

With unrealized profits shrinking across the board, #Bitcoin’s NUPL is now sitting near 0.18, firmly in the Hope/Fear zone. That tells us most holders are not deeply in profit, which makes the market more sensitive to every move. In this kind of phase, upside attempts often struggle. Even small rallies can attract sellers who prefer to lock in limited gains rather than wait for a bigger breakout.

At the same time, if price starts slipping, hesitation can quickly turn into broader selling as confidence fades. It’s usually a reactive environment where follow through is limited and sentiment shifts fast. Careful positioning and patience tend to matter more than aggressive entries when conviction is this thin.

For most of the past three months, both #Bitcoin and #Ethereum spot ETFs have been seeing steady outflows, with the 30 day #SMA of net flows staying in negative territory. Instead of fresh capital coming in, funds have generally been moving out. There hasn’t been any consistent shift toward positive inflows that would signal renewed confidence from investors.

Activity levels suggest that large players are either staying on the sidelines or trimming their positions. Unless this trend flips and we start seeing sustained inflows over several weeks, it’s hard to say that meaningful demand has returned to the market.

#Bitcoin mining difficulty just dropped 11.16%, the biggest decline since the July 2021 China mining ban. It’s now the 10th largest negative adjustment in Bitcoin’s history. This indicates a noticeable drop in hash rate, meaning some miners likely went offline. The network is simply recalibrating to keep block times stable.

There’s heavy long exposure in this range. One strong push down could spark a liquidation cascade worth billions. At the moment, downside pressure remains dominant.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

Since the drop below $80K, the 30 day #SMA has slowly increased to 3.2%. That steady rise suggests bigger players are accumulating gradually.

A similar pattern appeared in early 2022, when whales built positions in phases before the next bull run. If this trend continues, it could mean large entities are positioning quietly again.

The #Bitcoin market is absorbing a huge amount of pain right now, with the 7 day moving average of realized losses reaching $2.3 billion, a level seen only once before during the Luna crash in June 2022. Back then, Bitcoin was around $19K and the market was going through a full systemic collapse with forced liquidations and broken confidence across the board.

Today, Bitcoin is trading near $67K, and this move is happening after an all time high, making it a correction rather than a collapse. The losses look similar on paper, but the reason behind them is very different, driven by profit taking, short term fear, and leverage reset instead of structural failure. Context like this changes how these numbers should be understood.

Market liquidity continues to show signs of strain as the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D SMA) trends lower, currently around 1.32 and edging closer to the pivotal 1 level. This gradual decline highlights a weakening balance between profit realization and loss absorption. When this metric has sustainably fallen below 1 in past cycles, it has typically aligned with periods of broad capitulation, where realized losses dominate market activity. These phases often reflect elevated stress, reduced risk appetite, and widespread defensive positioning.

Should the ratio continue to compress toward or beneath this threshold, it would suggest that selling pressure remains unresolved. Historically, such conditions have tended to precede either heightened volatility or the early stages of a market stabilization process, depending on the surrounding liquidity and macro backdrop.

Still Extreme Fear 👀

EVERY CYCLE COMES UP WITH A NEW SATOSHI CLAIM 🤯🤣

🕵️‍♂️ 2010: Hal Finney
🕵️‍♂️ 2012: Nick Szabo
🕵️‍♂️ 2014: Dorian Nakamoto
🕵️‍♂️ 2016: Craig Wright
🕵️‍♂️ 2018: Adam Back
🕵️‍♂️ 2020: Jack Dorsey
🕵️‍♂️ 2022: Elon Musk
🕵️‍♂️ 2024: Peter Todd
🕵️‍♂️ 2026: Epstein

Who is really behind the Bitcoin’s greatest mystery? 👀

This cycle was defined by relatively shallow drawdowns, assuming the early October all time high marked the conclusion of the latest bull market. Price pullbacks were limited and orderly, closely resembling the structure seen during the 2015-2017 period. Compared to previous cycles, volatility on the downside remained muted, suggesting healthier liquidity conditions and more balanced market participation.

Nearly seven years of silence ended as a dormant #Bitcoin whale moved 2,043 BTC, instantly drawing market attention. The coins trace back to purchases made around February 19, 2019, when Bitcoin was trading far below current levels.

At its height, the unknown entity controlled close to 39,000 BTC, all originally received via Cumberland’s OTC trading desk. When wallets inactive for years suddenly come alive, the market tends to speculate. This transfer could point to profit realization, portfolio restructuring, or preparation for a larger move, but for now, the intent remains unknown.

Crypto market liquidity is going down, which is why #stablecoin supply is shrinking. #Bitcoin now needs much more liquidity to hold its current valuation, so as long as stablecoins keep flowing out, any #BTC recovery is likely to be temporary. Liquidity can return quickly if the overall economic outlook improves, and this week’s inflation and unemployment data are important for that.

On #coinbase Advanced, which is mostly used by institutions and whales, stablecoin flows dropped sharply after the last market top, a pattern seen before at previous tops. Although flows have recently turned slightly positive, the amount is still too small to meaningfully improve the broader liquidity situation.

Realized losses are still dominating the market, showing that many investors bought near the top and are now selling at a loss. Even some long term holders are exiting, which highlights how difficult #Bitcoin can be to hold during volatility. The realized profit to loss ratio is currently at 0.25, meaning losses are far outweighing profits and the 7 day average is close to bear market levels, although the yearly average remains much higher.

One positive sign is that today realized profits slightly exceeded losses for the first time in weeks, which may suggest that selling pressure is starting to cool, even though panic driven selling can still continue for some time.

Still Extreme Fear 👀