The Principles

#USRetailSalesMissForecast : U.S. Consumer Spending Disappoints in December U.S. retail sales missed expectations in December 2025, pointing to weaker consumer demand as the year closed and raising questions about the strength of economic growth heading into 2026. According to the U.S. Commerce Department, headline retail sales remained flat month-over-month (0.0%), falling short of economist forecasts for a 0.4% rise and signaling the weakest result in recent months. Core retail sales — which exclude volatile categories — also slipped, highlighting broader retail softness. Data showed that several key retail categories — including furniture, electronics and clothing — saw declines in spending, underscoring a pullback in discretionary consumer behavior amid tighter budgets. Economists warn that stagnant retail sales could weigh on consumer-driven GDP growth, given that consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of overall U.S. economic activity. Markets reacted to the disappointing report with gains in Treasury bonds, as weaker consumption trends often soften inflation pressures and reinforce expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve stance on interest rates. Given slowing retail momentum and other mixed macro signals, investors will be closely monitoring upcoming employment and inflation data for clearer policy direction. Market Implication: A significant retail sales miss may temper economic growth forecasts and heighten volatility across equity and fixed-income markets.