章魚同學Nikki

The fuel you added today, the groceries you bought, the deliveries you ordered, are all quietly becoming more expensive.

The fuel you added today, the groceries you bought, the deliveries you ordered, are all quietly becoming more expensive. No one is notifying you, but the bills won't lie to you.

Not trading stocks, not trading cryptocurrencies, do you think you can hide?

8000 kilometers away, a drone has bombed Saudi Arabia's largest oil refinery, halting 500,000 barrels/day of production capacity. Brent crude oil rose 8.5% in one day, and European natural gas skyrocketed 24%.

> Aviation fuel prices are rising → flight tickets 30,000. Logistics diesel prices rising → delivery fees rising. Fertilizer prices rising → prices of rice, flour, and vegetables rising. Inflation itself is harvesting your savings, without you needing to hold any assets.

> The insurance company for the Strait of Hormuz has withdrawn coverage. 150 oil tankers are stuck outside and dare not move. On Sunday, three ships were attacked, blocking 20% of global oil transportation. This is not "possible", it is "happening".

> Gold surged to $5390, and military stocks hit new highs. Your retirement fund's aviation stocks fell 8%, hotel stocks fell 9%. You didn't place a bet, but you're already losing.

> BTC stabilized at 66000 without collapsing. ETF outflows reached 9 billion, institutions have fled, but prices haven't crumbled. Is the safe haven failing or are institutions washing out? We'll see in three months.

> The most dangerous variable: Saudi Arabia. The refinery was bombed, the royal family said, "We must decide how to respond". If Saudi Arabia falls, all six Gulf countries will be involved, and the global energy stress test will officially begin.

> The 2019 Strait crisis quickly cooled down. This time: the supreme leader is dead, the refinery was bombed, ships were attacked, and insurance has fled. There are no conditions for cooling.

What have you recently felt is increasing in price? Please be specific 👇

Do you believe that someone can buy a life option for just 1 cent?

On Polymarket, 6 accounts, all newly created this February, only bet in one direction: that the U.S. would launch an airstrike on Iran before February 28. The buying price was 1 cent per share. A few hours later, Tehran exploded. The 6 accounts collectively made 1 million dollars.

Some say this is insider trading.
Personally, I find it hard to define. The U.S. had hinted at taking action for several weeks, and on the day before the airstrike, 25 million dollars poured into related contracts. Moreover, among these 6 accounts, one had previously bet on the wrong date and lost 300 dollars. Would someone with real insider knowledge make such a mistake?

The issue lies in their behavioral patterns: all new wallets, single direction, concentrated betting. This combination in on-chain analysis is the "insider trader profile." The same pattern appeared previously in contracts surrounding Maduro's resignation.

And now, Khamenei has been confirmed dead in the airstrike, and Iran immediately retaliated with missiles and drones against Israeli and U.S. military bases, even striking Dubai Airport. Those who previously bet on Khamenei's resignation made profits again.

What is the most terrifying part of this?
Even if someone really bets with a battle plan, there’s nothing you can do about it. Polymarket is overseas, unregulated, and only requires an anonymous wallet.

Then things became even more absurd. The terms did not exclude death; being ousted counts, resignation counts, and dying also counts. As long as he disappears, those who bet correctly can cash out. This is not a prediction market; this is a bounty announcement.

In February of this year, Israel has already filed the world's first criminal charges linking prediction markets with military intelligence. Prediction markets have officially entered the enforcement spotlight from the gray area.

But can the law keep up?
Blockchain can trace every transaction, yet it cannot answer the most critical question: at the moment of betting, is this person gambling, or do they know? If this market continues to exist, who will be the next one to be tagged with a price?