周鸣超

Latest news: Morgan Stanley's spot Bitcoin ETF will start trading tomorrow. $BTC

BAYC dropped from a high of 1.3 million USD to now 12,000 USD, a decrease of 99%. Although it is said that NFTs are already dead, if BAYC or the fat penguin drops below 50 USD, I would be willing to buy one to use as an avatar.

Trader James Wynn's account has been liquidated, with only 900U remaining. $BNB $ETH

Latest news: Michael Saylor stated that the four-year cycle of Bitcoin has 'ended'.

Sister Mu said that Bitcoin has entered a mature stage, and the retracement may be limited, unlike previous cycles where it reached 85% to 95%. In fact, Bitcoin has already retraced by 50%.

Latest news: 🇺🇸 The unemployment rate in the United States has dropped to 4.3%, lower than expected.$BNB

Axios confirmed that a U.S. F-15E "Strike Eagle" fighter jet was shot down inside Iran. Rescue operations are underway. A claim on domestic Douyin states that Iran shot down an F35.

$3.8 billion liquidated in 24 hours, and $BONK surprisingly ranks fourth?

There is one day left in March, $BTC March may end with a gain, concluding 5 months of continuous decline.

🔥 Latest: BitMine added 71,179 $ETH, with a total accumulation of 4.73M $ETH, holding 3.9% of the total supply.

March 20th Cryptocurrency Key News Review
​🏛️ 1. Powell's "hawkish comments" reverberate, BTC fluctuates upward
​Although the Federal Reserve hinted yesterday at fewer rate cuts in 2026, the market seems to have digested this negative news.
​Core of the event: Watcher.Guru reported that after a brief "two-way washout", Bitcoin (BTC) showed strong resilience today, stabilizing above $73,500.
​Twitter opinion: Analysts believe that although the rate cuts are delayed, Powell confirmed that "inflation is on a controllable path", providing reassurance to long-term holders.

​🇬🇧 2. The UK officially passes the "2026 Crypto Asset Regulation Ordinance"
​The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) sparked heated discussions on Twitter today.
​Core of the event: The UK government officially issued SI 2026 No.102, bringing the issuance of stablecoins, crypto asset trading, and staking into a comprehensive regulatory framework.
​Watcher.Guru focus: This regulation will officially take effect in 2027, but from now on, crypto companies operating in the UK must seek authorization from the FCA. Legal experts on Twitter believe this is an important step towards the "de-marginalization" of cryptocurrency into the mainstream.

​🤖 3. X (Twitter) reveals new "agent payment" feature
​The X platform owned by Elon Musk announced a technical update today.
​Core of the event: Multiple Twitter tech bloggers discovered through the code that X is testing a feature called "Agentic Payments", aimed at allowing AI agents to make micro crypto payments on behalf of users.
​Community reaction: This aligns with the previous prediction by CZ (Zhao Changpeng) regarding "AI-driven crypto payments". Watcher.Guru pointed out that this could fundamentally change the creator incentive model on the X platform.

​⚖️ 4. Musk Twitter acquisition trial enters jury deliberation phase
​A protracted legal battle reaches a critical juncture today.
​Core of the event: The jury began closed deliberations today regarding the lawsuit against Musk for misleading investors via Twitter in 2022.
​Impact: If Musk is found liable, he may face billions of dollars in damages. Tesla and cryptocurrency traders on X are closely monitoring the impact of this ruling on the liquidity of Musk's assets.

March 19 Twitter's Four Core Events:
​🏛️ 1. Powell's "Hawkish Pause": Rate Cut Expectations Delayed to Q4
​Watcher.Guru live-streamed the latest remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Powell, becoming today's biggest macro focus.
​Core Content: The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but the dot plot shows the expected number of rate cuts in 2026 reduced from 3 to 1.
​Twitter Hot Discussion: Powell mentioned that "inflation persistence exceeded expectations," causing the US stock and crypto markets to experience a $2,000 bid-ask spike at the moment the decision was announced, followed by a slow recovery due to "uncertainty removal."

​🇸補 2. Salvadoran President: Continuing to Increase BTC Holdings through "Volcano Bonds"
​After the Federal Reserve meeting, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele took to Twitter again.
​Event Core: Watcher.Guru confirmed that El Salvador utilized funds raised from recent Volcano Bonds to purchase another 500 BTC.
​Deep Impact: Bukele posted the country's BTC reserve address on X, which has significantly lower holding costs than market price, and this action has been viewed by the Twitter community as the "strongest counterattack" against fiat currency inflation.

​🇪🇺 3. EU MiCA 2.0 Draft Leaked
​News regarding European crypto regulation went viral on Twitter today.
​Event Core: An internal draft about MiCA 2.0 (Regulation of Crypto Assets Market Amendment) was leaked.
​Key Terms: The draft suggests implementing stricter identity verification (KYC) requirements for **Fully Decentralized (Full DeFi)** protocols. Watcher.Guru pointed out that this has raised collective concerns among developers of decentralized protocols like Uniswap, fearing it would undermine the privacy core of Web3.

​💳 4. Mastercard's Deep Integration with MetaMask
​The payment giant has reached a milestone partnership with the largest non-custodial wallet.
​Event Core: Mastercard announced the launch of an "on-chain debit card" specifically for MetaMask users.
​Technical Details: Users can directly make real-time purchases at Mastercard-supported merchants using their USDC balance within the wallet. Comments on Twitter unanimously agree that this is a key milestone for cryptocurrency transitioning from "speculative assets" to "everyday currency."

March 18 Crypto Market Review:
​🏛️ 1. Federal Reserve Meeting Day: The Whole Network is Watching Powell
​Core Event: The Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its interest rate decision today at 2:00 PM (Eastern Time). Currently, the market widely expects the interest rate to remain unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%.
​Twitter Focus: Watcher.Guru noted that the real focus of the market is on the subsequent "dot plot" and Powell's speech. Due to the rise in energy prices triggered by geopolitical issues (crude oil fluctuating around $105), macro analysts on Twitter are vigorously debating whether the Federal Reserve will turn to a more aggressive hawkish stance in the second half of 2026.
​📉 2. Coinbase Withdraws Support for the CLARITY Act
​Core Event: Coinbase suddenly announced its withdrawal of support for the Senate version of the CLARITY Act, which aims to establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins in the United States.
​Market Reaction: This move forced the previously scheduled Senate Banking Committee vote to be canceled. The Twitter community believes this reflects a deep rift between crypto giants and lawmakers on the issue of "who controls the underlying infrastructure," and it also means that U.S. crypto legislation may once again be at a standstill.
​💹 3. Bitcoin (BTC) Stands Firm at $74,000
​Market Dynamics: Despite being on the edge of the FOMC meeting's "quiet period," BTC performed resiliently today, successfully breaking through and holding the $74,000 level.
​Institutional Signals: Watcher.Guru cited data showing that weekly fund inflows into spot ETFs, such as BlackRock, have exceeded $760 million. This indicates that amidst macro uncertainty, institutional funds are viewing BTC as a safe-haven asset against energy-driven inflation.
​🚨 4. Security Alert: Bitrefill Faces Cyber Attack
​Security Incident: Crypto e-commerce giant Bitrefill disclosed that it has suffered a cyber attack, with rumors on Twitter pointing to North Korea's Lazarus Group.
​Community Reminder: Security accounts are reminding users to check API permissions and strengthen account security.

March 16:
​🚀 1. Ethereum (ETH) Surges: Institutional Funds Pour In
​The most discussed topic on Twitter today is Ethereum's single-day surge of over 12%.
​Core of the event: Watcher.Guru reports that the spot Ethereum ETF has seen significant net inflows (over $450 million), driving ETH's price performance far exceeding that of Bitcoin.
​Community discussion: Analysts point out that the concentrated release of Layer-2 and Layer-3 ecosystems, along with the stability of Staking Yield, is attracting traditional institutions to shift from BTC to ETH.
​🏛️ 2. Major Personnel Changes at SEC: Enforcement Division Director Resigns
​A recent official announcement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has caused a stir on Twitter.
​Core of the event: SEC announces the resignation of Enforcement Division Director Margaret A. Ryan, with Sam Waldon taking over as acting director.
​Deep impact: Current SEC Chairman Paul Atkins later posted that the enforcement division will return to its original intention of "combatting fraud and manipulation." The crypto community on Twitter reacted enthusiastically, viewing this as a clear signal that regulatory policy is shifting from "high-pressure enforcement" to "friendly compliance."
​🛡️ 3. UK Releases Anti-Fraud Strategy for 2029
​Crime prevention related to AI and digital assets has become an international hotspot.
​Core of the event: The UK government has officially released its anti-fraud strategy, which will last until 2029.
​Twitter focus: The document emphasizes the risks posed by the combination of social media and cryptocurrency. Watcher.Guru reminds users to pay attention to the regulatory warnings concerning the application of AI deepfakes in investment fraud.
​🐕 4. Meme Coin Popularity Revives: Solana Ecosystem Active
​Despite a complex macro environment, speculative sentiment remains strong.
​Core of the event: Solana (SOL) has surged over 7% today against the trend, driving explosive growth in Meme coins (such as Dogecoin-related clones) within its ecosystem.
​Technical perspective: Quantitative traders on Twitter are monitoring hotspots using volume spike indicators, with today's trading volume on Solana's decentralized exchange (DEX) surpassing recent highs.

Today's cryptocurrency-related hot events:

🚨 Macro and Geopolitics: The market's emotional barometer
FOMC interest rate meeting outlook: This week (March 18), the Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting. Currently, the market expects a probability of over 92% that the interest rate will remain between 3.50% and 3.75%. Traders on Twitter are closely watching Jerome Powell's economic forecast, which will determine the liquidity direction for the second half of 2026.

Middle East conflict and oil price chain: The energy supply chain disruption caused by the US-Iran situation continues to ferment, with crude oil prices fluctuating between $100 and $111 per barrel. Twitter analysts point out that the inflation pressure brought by rising oil prices is weakening liquidity in the cryptocurrency market; this "inflation chain" is the focus of today's discussion.

💰 Cryptocurrency market dynamics: Volatility in recovery
Strong rebound after BTC flash crash: After a geopolitical-triggered flash crash to $62,400, Bitcoin has rebounded to around $70,000 today. Watcher.Guru notes that despite the Fear and Greed Index being in the "fear" range (around 28), institutions are "buying in blood."

Ethereum and XRP strengthen: Ethereum (ETH) recorded a weekly increase of +10%; while XRP broke the $1.40 mark due to a 300% surge in trading volume, becoming a hot topic of discussion on Twitter today.

Spot ETF capital flow: Spot ETFs saw a three-day reversal inflow of +$450 million, with BlackRock's ETHB performing brightly on its first day, indicating a continued appetite from traditional capital for crypto assets.

🛠️ Technical and policy outlook:
CZ's AI layout: Zhao Changpeng (CZ) has been speaking frequently on Twitter recently, predicting that AI agents will dominate cryptocurrency payments and sharing the development tools he is using, which has sparked great interest in the developer community.

The CLARITY Act: A bill regarding stablecoin profits and cryptocurrency regulation has been stalled in the Senate, and policy analysts on Twitter are fiercely discussing the banking sector's obstruction of the bill.

📊 Macro Liquidity Report: How Far is BTC from Breaking Through?
1️⃣ Liquidity Buffer Zeroed
The ON RRP (Reverse Repo) has dropped to a very low level of 0.43B in the chart. This means that the 'invisible monetary easing' dividend that supported the market over the past two years has basically been exhausted. Any increase in liquidity in the future must rely on the Federal Reserve stopping the balance sheet reduction or the Treasury's TGA being unlocked.
2️⃣ TGA Sword of Damocles: 805B Reservoir
Currently, the balance of the US government (TGA) remains at a high level of 805.8 billion.
Bearish Side: Funds are locked in government accounts and have not flowed into the market, suppressing BTC's upward momentum.
Bullish Side: This is potential 'nuclear-level' ammunition. Once the TGA starts to decline rapidly (increased government spending), net liquidity will experience explosive growth.
3️⃣ Net Liquidity vs BTC Trend
In the chart, 'Arithmetic 1' (Net Liquidity) is currently flat at 5.84T. The recent fluctuations of BTC (purple line) closely match the plateau period of this curve. Without an increase in liquidity, it is difficult for the coin price to soar.
4️⃣ Timing Judgment from a Quantitative Perspective
Fluctuation Period: It is expected to still need 1-2 months of bottoming, waiting for TGA consumption.
Explosion Point: Pay attention to TGA falling below 600 billion or the Federal Reserve announcing a slowdown in QT.
⚠️ Conclusion: The capital game in the market has reached its limit, and the depletion of RRP means lower tolerance. Maintain flexibility in positions and wait for signals from TGA's distribution.
#BTC #Crypto #Liquidity #MacroMicro $BTC

​🎮 Nintendo sues the US government, let's take a look at Nintendo's legal department: analysis of the strongest "ultimate move" in the Eastern Hemisphere ⚖️

​Rumor has it, if you fall onto a deserted island, don’t seek help, just draw Mickey Mouse or Mario on the beach, and the legal department will immediately send a helicopter to sue (rescue) you.

​🥊 The Battle of Gods: The Birth of Kirby
​In the 1980s, Universal Pictures saw "Donkey Kong" become popular and claimed Nintendo infringed on "King Kong". As a result, Nintendo's lawyer John Kirby shot back: Didn't you personally prove that the "King Kong" image was in the public domain to make the movie?
​Outcome: Universal paid $1.8 million. To show gratitude, Nintendo named that pink little round ball **"Kirby"**.

​💀 Classic Record: Whoever touches it dies
​Magician Yuri: "Your Yonkira is hinting at me with a spoon!"
​Nintendo: "Then why don’t you teleport on stage and show us? Can’t do it? Then get lost."

​Phantom Beast Palu (ongoing): Not suing you for drawing it similarly, but specifically suing you for the **"ball capture"** gameplay patent.
​Key Point: As long as you want to "borrow", Nintendo's patent library is extensive enough to bankrupt you.

​🚀 A dimensional strike against the crypto space (Crypto/Web3)?
​Nightmare of NFT knockoffs: Don’t think that just changing the color or putting it on a chain makes it "decentralized". Nintendo's DMCA (copyright warning) can take you down directly from the front-end hosting, even pinpoint-exploding GitHub.

​GameFi patent wall: Most current blockchain games are copying "Pokémon". Nintendo's lawsuit against "Phantom Beast Palu" sent a signal: "Gameplay mechanics also have patents". In the future, if blockchain games lack original mechanics, they might get a lawyer's letter as soon as they issue tokens.

​Copyright > Consensus: In the eyes of the legal department, your "community consensus" is just a piece of scrap paper in front of the law. "Strong IP + Strong Legal" is the real moat of Web2; Web3 projects seeking to break through must rely on originality as the only way out.

​Summary: Crypto friends, tread carefully when riding the hype. The strongest legal department in the Eastern Hemisphere is the real hype master 😂
​#Nintendo #Nintendo #Web3 #GameFi #CopyrightProtection #幻兽帕鲁

Once again, waterfall face washing has started 😭😭$BTC

If there is still a bull market this round, the one who might be sacrificed is Brother Majie 😅