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Trade alerts expected to be realized before July 31
On July 6, we advised that if the USD/JPY exchange rate returned to 158, you could go long. First target: 165. Second target: 170.
The July 6 alert was based on an assessment of market direction, emphasizing the importance of monitoring the market closely. In the actual market, the USD/JPY rate returned to 158 at around 10:00 PM on July 30, then quickly rebounded to 160, validating the effectiveness of the plan.
Trading strategy after the rebound
After the rebound is completed, if the market tests the lows again and returns to around 158, you may consider entering again.
If you missed the first rebound and didn’t catch the orders, it’s recommended to stand aside.
Rebound moves are usually fast and violent—wait patiently for the next opportunity.
How to anticipate accurately? The accuracy of a forecast is not based solely on intuition, but on understanding the规律 of how markets move. Some instruments have predictable price behavior. By analyzing historical data, you can identify patterns. Japan’s market behavior can be surprising, but history has already provided the answer.

Trading strategy for the semiconductor memory market
The 29th alert indicated that a “dead-cat bounce” in the Korea and Japan stock markets was preparing to appear. Today, Hynix, Micron, and SanDisk all rebounded consecutively as expected, so we continue waiting for an opportunity to take a high entry.
The crude oil market is still in a very tight balance—wait for the gap below.
For gold: buy near the converging support level + the psychological price of around 4000, then rebound to 4110. Continue holding.

Trading strategy for Bitcoin
On the short-term timeframe: enter long around 63,750 for Bitcoin, with a stop-loss set at 63,100. Targets: 65,800–66,000 #韩国股市盘中创纪录涨17%

July 29
Crude Oil Trading Strategy
Crude oil rebounded slightly last night, but we didn’t seize the opportunity because everyone was taking a break at the time. A gap formed above crude oil—patiently wait for the gap to be filled, then observe the situation.

Prediction: crude oil may return to around its cost price, about $72. This is also the position of the lower gap, which is a good entry opportunity.

Analysis of the Nikkei Index and the Korean KOSPI
Affected by the yen and the Korean stock market, the Nikkei index fell. The Korean KOSPI may also break below around 5,000, but afterward it could see a “dead cat bounce”—a larger rebound. Stay cautious.
#道指涨超500点

July 28
Crude Oil: Yesterday, I mentioned that around $80, if we see strong momentum, you could consider going long. However, if price breaks downward below an expected rebound, there was no confirmation yet, so we will not participate for now.
Crude oil prices are approaching shale oil cost levels of 68–72, and it is not expected to fall below 70.
Gold: Continue to trade in a range, but liquidity issues may cause a short-term decline. Keep an eye on the area around $3,850—it could provide an opportunity. Gold may be the main investment theme from the second half of this year into early next year. It is recommended to buy physical spot gold.

Bitcoin Trading Strategy
In the short term, Bitcoin is ranging at high levels with no clear trend signals. Do less and observe more.#SK海力士跌13%韩股KOSPI跌10% $GOOGL.US

July 27

Crude Oil Trading Strategy: Based on previous analysis, close all positions in the WTI $92 range. Also, near the Brent $100 area, close all remaining base positions.
Crude Oil Bounce Outlook: Ahead of the mid-term election, oil prices may rebound in the medium term. Watch whether the rebound within $82–$85 can sustain a long (bullish) trend. If it does not sustain, then watch the $76–$75 gap for possible fill.

Gold Trading Rationale
The weekly chart shows a bottoming signal, with consecutive bullish candles absorbing selling pressure. Also, the recent highs have started to rise. If the bullish momentum in gold continues, the rebound target could be the start of a second wave of a large-scale rally.
Previously, we bought around $4040 and will hold patiently, waiting for the rebound.

Bitcoin: No clear trend. Continue to trade in a range and watch the $68,000 level. If the breakout fails, it could trigger another sharp selloff. If it breaks above resistance at $72,000.
#WTI原油期货跌8% $

July 23
Crude oil has broken through the long-term trend line. There are buy breakout-confirmation signals on both the daily and 4-hour timeframes. Wait for a pullback into the 82 to 84 zone before considering a buy. Set the stop loss at around 80.

If the pullback after the breakout is successful, the target is in the 98 to 100 range. The stop loss is about 3 points, with a risk-reward ratio of 1:4.

Gold has broken through a major trend line, but it may consolidate and range at higher levels. Consider watching the pullback areas. The initial target is around 4080, possibly going as low as 4020.

After the breakout, wait for consolidation and a new move; if the trend continues, the upside could reach around 4500.

Bitcoin short-term long opportunities
1. Bitcoin pulls back to around 64800. Set the stop loss at around 64000–63800. Target 67500.
2. Risk-reward ratio 1:3. Participate with a small position on the counter-trend setup. #比特币市值占比升至59%

July 22
Gold Trading Ideas Sharing
Gold yesterday tightened to the extreme. A breakout on the smaller timeframe, followed by another breakout after a pullback. The entry point is 4050. After breaking the trendline and the horizontal resistance, the outlook is bullish for gold, with targets at 4200 and 4500. The daily timeframe closes higher, targeting 4500. If it pulls back to 4200, that is an opportunity to add to the position.

Crude Oil Trading Ideas Sharing
The crude oil entered at 68 should be closed around 84. Keep a remainder position or not—depending on whether the downtrend line is broken. If the downtrend line is broken, buy again on the pullback. Set the stop-loss below the consolidation range.

Market Risk Warning
The yen continues to weaken, which may trigger a sell-off wave and impact assets such as the Nikkei and South Korean stock markets. This could lead to a financial crisis.
US Treasury yields rise, crude oil prices rise, the US stock market is unstable, and a correction may be on the horizon.

Bitcoin Trading Ideas Sharing
For Bitcoin, watch around the weekly trendline, but there is insufficient volume. Be alert to the risk of a sharp drop. The target is around 68000. If it breaks below the trendline or breaks below the pullback level, continue to look bearish.
Without increased volume accompanying price gains, I’m not optimistic about an upside move.#比特币触及66500美元一个月高点

July 21
Gold Trading Strategy
1. If a wedge and channel signals appear on a lower timeframe, wait for confirmation after the first breakout.
2. After the 15-minute chart confirms the breakout, you may go long around 4030, set the stop-loss at 4000, and target 4100.
3. For left-side trading, wait for a pullback to buy from lower levels; for right-side trading, wait for a breakout of the trendline.
4. After breaking the trendline, there may be a retest; it’s recommended to try with a small position, and add to the position after the breakout.
- Crude Oil Trading Strategy
1. Crude oil has already taken profit and exited; the high-level reaction was likely a false signal.
2. If crude can’t push higher, it may continue to retrace; there is a gap below around 70 to 72.
3. When the price retraces to the area near the gap, you can attempt a long; the targets are 77 or 76.
4. Brent is clearer—use WTI as the reference.
Nikkei and COSP Trading Strategy
1. Nikkei and COSP may rebound, but overall conditions remain bearish.
2. The Nikkei low hasn’t been broken, but the COSP low has been fully broken—there is a strong correlation.
3. Korea’s stock bull market may be over; retail investors used leverage to chase higher, then prices rolled over.
Bitcoin and Ethereum Trading Strategy
1. Bitcoin broke out weakly with insufficient volume, so it may continue to retrace.
2. Ethereum’s trendline hasn’t been broken; it may consolidate and then break out again.
3. Funding rate has turned positive again; there is no aggressive shorting, so the market may trade sideways.#韩国散户杠杆持仓降至三个月低点

July 20
Sharing crude oil trading ideas.
Crude oil was advised to exit in the morning; it’s recommended to keep 25% to 30% of the core position and continue observing. Since April, crude oil has been bullish, going through several multi-leg long swings. This time, the entry was around 68, with a target around 85; about 70% of the position has been taken profit on.

Gold trading ideas
Gold price action is consolidating and oscillating with a decreasing range, nearing the direction decision point. The central bank has been continuously buying gold, with strategic reserves increasing; it’s recommended to buy gold ETFs.

Wait patiently for the market to show clear bottom signals before buying futures or contracts.

Bitcoin trading ideas
The bitcoin weekly trendline has not been broken, and there hasn’t been a spot buying surge; there may be limited potential for a small rebound. Personally, I closed all my long orders around 58,800 near 63,650. #WTI原油涨2%至84美元

July 17 Oil Trading Outlook
Oil is currently consolidating with a slight downward drift. If it continues to fall, it may retrace to the $75–$76 range. It’s recommended to wait for a long opportunity. Target zone is around $85. There is a gap and a trendline nearby. Currently, on the smaller time frame it is in wave 4 retracement; wait for the extension of wave 5, then take profit.

Gold Trading Outlook
Gold has broken through the $4,000 level. Continue to wait for opportunities near $3,800. On the daily chart, gold still shows a bearish trend. Be cautious when bottom-fishing.

Stock Market Trading Outlook
The stock markets of South Korea and Japan are weak—especially Japan. The previous highs have not been broken, and the structure indicates a bearish trend.
Exchange rates and government bonds are the foundation of the country. Weakness in currency and government bonds leads to a soft stock market, even affecting economic activity.
South Korea and Japan’s stock markets are still setting the example for the U.S. stock market, so stay alert and be prepared to defend.

Bitcoin Trading Outlook
Bitcoin is consolidating in the $65,000 range. After breaking down, pull back and then continue lower. Earlier, the advice was that after a breakdown of this range, one should short on the retest.
The hourly timeframe clearly shows a bearish structure—be cautious of a potential acceleration to the downside.
Spot buying volume is shrinking; rebounds lack strength. Although price rises, momentum is fading, and a rebound may be nearing its end.

Ethereum Trading Outlook
Ethereum has touched the $1,900 area and there was a prior indication that it could be shorted. On the smaller time frame, it now shows a retracement trend. If it breaks below $1,800, then after a pullback, attempt a short.

ZEC Trading Outlook
After ZEC broke out, it pulled back. Wait for an opportunity around the trendline near 520 to break down and then short on the retest.#亚洲股市连续第二日下跌

July 15 Crude Oil Trading Ideas
The crude oil trend is strong. After a slight decline yesterday, it continued to rebound. There are two scenarios: consolidation in place followed by an upside breakout, or a rebound after a pullback to 75–76.
Target is $85. After a breakout, look for $90.

Gold Trading Ideas
Gold saw a big rebound yesterday, but the downtrend structure hasn’t been broken yet, and it remains in a range. The range is tightening; wait for a deeper pullback level. Even good news didn’t allow gold to continue its strength, so we still expect further downside testing.

Bitcoin Trading Ideas
Bitcoin rose yesterday following the release of interest-rate results, breaking through $65,000. However, volume has shrunk and the rebound looks weak. The long position at 58,800 has already taken profit on half; the rest should continue to wait until 68,000 to fully exit. Short positions should also wait until 68,000 before considering.
#特朗普撤销霍尔木兹20%货运费

July 14 Crude Oil Trading Thoughts
The crude oil price entered a long position around 68, and has since risen to about 80 at its peak. Previously, the price pulled back to between 70 and 72; it is recommended to open new positions or add to positions within this range.
Wait patiently for the upper gap to be filled. The expected target price is between 85 and 90. The rise in crude oil may cause gold to fall; the expected gold price decline is to around 3800.

Global Stock Market Analysis
Crude oil上涨（rising crude oil） puts pressure on global stock markets; indices such as China A-shares, KOSPI, and the Nikkei are all affected. We previously warned about the risks.
The South Korean government opened leveraged ETFs at high levels, causing many retail investors to get stuck in losses. The South Korean government, in cooperation with the chaebols, pushed ordinary people to become the next buyers.
The United States may seek to ease its own crisis by triggering a chain reaction—by detonating the South Korean stock market and economy, and thereby detonating Japan—leading to a potential Asian financial crisis. #科技股拖累美股走低

July 13 crude oil trading ideas
The crude oil weekly chart shows a strong rebound with a gap-up opening. The bullish real-bodied candle below is larger than the previous bearish one, engulfing the prior bearish candle.
On the daily timeframe, the previous large bullish candle pullback has basically reached the 72–70 area. It is expected to rise to around 85–90. Keep the long position entered around 68.
In terms of fundamentals, freight rates, insurance premiums, restocking needs, and geopolitical factors have all pushed the oil price’s central (midpoint) upward. With additional support from sentiment later on, you could see 110–100
Gold trading analysis
Gold volatility is low, so it is not very suitable for short-term trading, but it is already very close to the bottom—wait patiently for a new opportunity.#币安九周年

July 10 Crude Oil Trading Outlook
Crude oil remains bullish. A reasonable pullback level is around 70 yuan. The crude oil price pivot has shifted upward to between 85 and 90 USD, with an overhead nearby gap.

Gold Trading Outlook
Gold is at around 3800—wait for a long opportunity, or consider entering only after a break above the trend line.

Bitcoin Trading Outlook
1. Bitcoin has been relatively strong recently. Take partial profits on the earlier long position around 63,500. Then move the stop to protect, but it has not broken below around 61,000. Price action continues to rise. The target for fully exiting is around 68,000 to 69,000.#CFTC警告若加密法案停滞将全面监管 $SPCXB

July 9 oil trading strategy
Factors such as crude oil restocking, higher shipping/flight fees, and limited production capacity have pushed up the price center of gravity.
Because the crude oil price did not fall despite good news, but instead rose, we chose to buy around 68 yuan. The current price is 74 yuan, up 10%. Continue to hold and wait for further upside.
There is a gap from 85 to 90 yuan, so take partial profits. Before there is a clear structure, it is not recommended to add to the position. Wait patiently for a structure to form.
Gold trading strategy
The rise in crude oil puts pressure on gold and may lead to further downside in the short term. Do not enter a long position for now.
Bitcoin trading strategy
The rise in crude oil puts pressure on Bitcoin and may cause it to range or fall in the short term.
For short positions, continue to wait for 68000-69000. For long positions, temporarily consider 60000-60500. If crude oil becomes too strong, abandon the long plan #美联储纪要显示加息分歧 $NVDAB

July 6 Bitcoin Trading Strategy
1. The long position entered around 58,800 has already reached the first take-profit target.
2. If the second trend line is broken, the target is between 68,000 and 70,000.
Weekly Chart Analysis
1. The weekly charts of Bitcoin, gold, and crude oil show signs of a rebound.
2. Bitcoin’s weekly chart forms a bullish engulfing pattern, which may rebound to around 68,000.
3. Gold’s weekly chart closes bullish, which may rebound to around 2,450.
4. Crude oil’s weekly chart closes bullish, which may rebound to around $100.
Analysis of Capital Inflows and Outflows
1. Take-profit by shorts leads to a natural rebound, with limited upside.
2. Large purchases by ETFs result in capital inflows.
3. There isn’t much liquidation data, so market sentiment remains stable.
Gold Trading Strategy
1. Gold may continue rising to around 2,450; it’s recommended to take partial profits.
2. If it breaks above 2,450, you can consider continuing to hold or adding positions.
3. If it falls back to around 3,800, consider buying.
Crude Oil Trading Strategy
1. Crude oil forms a small bullish pattern and may rebound to the area near the gap.
2. The crude oil consolidation zone may be between $90 and $100.
3. There are increasingly more shorts, but geopolitical risk still remains.
Analysis of US Stocks and Nikkei Index
1. US stocks remain bearish, and the Nikkei index may weaken.
2. The Japanese government’s intervention in the yen may lead to the yen weakening.#SpaceX将于7月7日纳入纳斯达克100 $SPCXB

July 3 Bitcoin rebound analysis
1. After entering at 58,800, Bitcoin rebounded to 62,000; it is recommended to take profit on part of the position.
2. The long position structure is still present; continue to look for a long rebound, but be cautious of high-level market volatility.
3. Potential pullback to 59,500; it is recommended to enter a short-term long, with a stop loss set at the low point.
Analysis of fund inflow and outflow
1. Spot inflows have increased, outflows have decreased, and ETF outflows are ongoing.
2. Total asset outflows may be nearing the end.
3. Bitcoin is bearish in the long run; after the rebound, it will continue to fall.
Analysis of funding rate
1. The funding rate is neutral, with intense long-versus-short competition.
2. It may trigger a new round of long/short switching.
Gold long order analysis
1. On the four-hour timeframe, a large bullish candle appears; enter a long when price retraces to the neckline.
2. The entry price for the long is 4,050; currently holding.
3. After breaking the trend line, expect a move up to 4,500.
Crude oil long order analysis
1. The oil gap has been filled, and a strong structure has appeared on the smaller timeframe.
2. It is recommended to wait for a break of the gap before entering a long.
3. After the breakout, enter on the pullback; set the stop loss below the gap.#以太坊突破1700美元涨7.98%

July 2, four-hour level analysis
At the daily level, Bitcoin has formed a small rebound with a volume-supported rise. Enter a long position around 58,800 and continue holding. On the four-hour level, when the price pulls back to the neckline area, that can serve as the first take-profit target. If it breaks above 63,000, then look toward 68,000; if it gets rejected, the rebound ends.
Regarding the inflow and outflow data: the outflow amount has sharply decreased, which may trigger a continuation of the rebound.

Crude oil and gold trading ideas
1. The oil gap has been filled; in the short term it may drag down the oil price, but in the long term it remains bullish.
2. Gold price continues to consolidate. On the four-hour level, it closed with a large bullish candle; if it pulls back, you may consider a long position #比特币ETF6月净流出45亿美元

July 1st
Bitcoin Market Update
Bitcoin may form a small rebound around 58,800, with a target near 63,000. The rebound is based on relatively larger trading volume, an hourly bullish candle follow-through, and long lower wicks. ETF sell volume has been decaying, and the market has not seen a crash.

Bitcoin’s monthly chart is very bearish, and a candle with an especially long upper wick may form. Therefore, there is a high likelihood that after the rebound, prices will continue to fall.

Monthly outlook for crude oil and gold
1. Crude oil monthly levels are seeing an upside pullback to fill the gap.
2. Gold’s monthly chart may continue to decline, but the downside may be limited. Consider waiting around 3,800.

Risk of a sudden plunge in the Japanese yen
1. A sharp drop in the yen could trigger a plunge in the Nikkei, leading to a “triple kill” across stocks, bonds, and FX.
2. Bonds and currency are the pillars of the country; currency depreciation can impact the bond market and then drag down the stock market.
#Q2加密黑客损失7.803亿美元 $

June 29
For now, there aren’t many people chasing shorts on BTC, so the market is prone to extreme rebounds. And with the sale of more than 600 million yuan worth of ETF holdings, it indicates that buyers at this price level do not fully approve. Without spot purchases, it will be difficult to reverse the trend.
Also, the closing price is below 61,000. If there are no buyers for a long time, the market may begin a new round of sharp sell-offs.

Crude Oil and Gold Analysis
1. Crude oil has already reached the spot buying zone. Wait patiently for the right-side long structure before getting involved.
2. The Gold ETF is treated as a spot purchase. Continue to wait for a long structure, or enter after breaking above the trendline.

Japanese Yen and US Stock Analysis
1. The Japanese yen continues to depreciate, and US stock market liquidity is starting to tighten.
2. US stock positions are overly concentrated and have already reached 40%. Once it collapses, a cascading reaction can occur. Watch the risk #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC $BTC

June 26
Bitcoin’s daily chart closed below sixty thousand, which isn’t a good sign. The same applies to the weekly and monthly charts. On the four-hour timeframe there hasn’t been a bullish candle; although yesterday saw a massive volume, there was no rebound.
After a surge in volume with no rebound, it usually means the downtrend continues. If it keeps ranging for a long time, it could eventually form a parabola-like decline.
Capital flow out and original share data
ETF outflows have continued. MSTR’s original share data shows that shareholders’ original share value has also plummeted by 25%
Once Bitcoin broke down through the key psychological level, that threshold has been lost—unless the daily chart prints an extremely large bullish candle that reclaims 60000, there may be a chance to turn bullish.
Ethereum’s first bottom is around 1350, and the second bottom is around 1100. #SOL一个月下跌20% $BTC