Yelia25

#BTC ✅In my opinion, the year 2025 can be considered bearish.

✅Yes, the years 2023–2024 were part of a bullish cycle, with impressive growth from $16,000 to $108,000.

❗️However, 2025 has become either flat or a bearish cycle. For altcoins, it has certainly turned out to be bearish. As for Bitcoin #BTC , its price initially rose by about 26%, then fell by 30%. Essentially, the year ended almost at the same levels from which it started (~$93,500 and ~$87,600 respectively).

❗️Thus, this is not the classic four-year cycle. We see two years of active growth, one year of sideways movement, and one year—a full bearish trend.

🔥If you have enough courage (read "strong eggs"), it’s worth immediately going short #BTC from the current levels up to ~105,000 (without fanaticism, the market knows how to surprise, remember October 10) and closing it around $50,000, sometime between September and November 2026. Considering the funding, such a strategy can bring serious profit.

❗️Be careful and cautious.

$BTC
$ETH

🔻 $AVAX : imbalance filled, buyers are running out of steam

📉 The price has returned to the 10.14–10.56 imbalance zone and stalled near its upper edge. The bounce is unfolding inside a rising wedge, with buyers showing a weak response.

🧐 I consider this buying to be manipulative. Momentum is weak, there’s no visible volume support, and a break below the wedge’s lower boundary would open the way down.

🎯 Scenario: a wedge breakdown and consolidation below it, followed by a move to 10.05, then 9.4. Stop above 10.71, which is above the zone. If the price consolidates above it, the idea is invalidated.

🌍 The backdrop is cautious: the market is waiting for Fed signals and watching ETF flows. If sentiment worsens, altcoins usually react more strongly than BTC. But that’s just the backdrop; the levels are what matter.

💬 What do you think—will buyers hold the wedge, or will we see a breakdown?

❗️ Stay alert and be careful. Always manage your risk.

$AVAX

🥇 Gold is approaching its “own” zone: preparing for a medium-term long

🎯 An interesting medium-term setup is taking shape on $XAUT (1D). The price is gradually moving down toward the strong $3900–4000 support zone, where gold has been bouncing for about a year.

📉 After surging to $4690, the price corrected, and the asset is now trading around $4123. A previous breakout from a prolonged descending wedge led to a confident rally, so buyers have historically stepped in at this zone.

🌍 The broader backdrop matters too: Fed rate decisions, movements in the dollar and yields, as well as inflows into gold ETFs and demand for safe-haven assets. Any change in rate expectations could speed up or slow down the rebound.

📌 Plan: build a medium-term long position in the $3965–3985 zone. I expect buyers to step in and a strong bounce from support. If the price breaks through the zone and holds below it, I’ll reassess the scenario.

💬 What do you think—will gold bounce from $4000 or test a lower zone?

❗️ Be attentive and cautious. Always manage your risk.

$XAUT

🔥 $ADA : pullback into the zone—and then down again?

📉 The 4-hour price action remains under pressure: after bouncing off the highs, $ADA lost momentum and is trading around 0.2528. The structure still points down.

🎯 The key zone above is 0.259–0.263. If the price pulls back, this is where you can look for a reaction and consider a short. There’s no need to chase the move if it doesn’t pull back into the zone.

🔽 The next levels below are 0.2389 and 0.2367, where liquidity has accumulated. If sellers stay in control, the next target is the POI zone around 0.225–0.218.

⚠️ The scenario is invalidated if the price holds above 0.262 on the 4-hour chart: sellers would then lose the initiative, and the picture would change.

🌍 On the macro front, the market is waiting for signals from the Fed, while ETF inflows are uneven. This increases volatility for altcoins, so it’s better to trade from key levels and avoid using excessive leverage.

💬 What do you think will break first—0.2367, or will the pullback reach 0.262?

❗️ Stay alert and exercise caution. Always manage your risk.

#ADA #Cardano #Crypto

$ADA

$STRK under pressure: key support is cracking, and there’s nothing beneath it*👀

📉 After a sharp move up to $0.060, $STRK moved into a correction and ran into a key 4H support zone (around $0.0503–0.0510). The price isn’t bouncing; it’s slowly “trading through” the level. This kind of sluggish action at support often means buyers are gradually running out.

🧱 This is an important zone: there are practically no strong levels lower on the chart for the price to hold on to. The last time this area was occupied was before the impulse move, and beyond it lies a liquidity vacuum all the way down to around $0.047.

🎯 The key trigger is a break and close below $0.05062. If that happens, I expect an impulsive move down: the first target is $0.048, followed by the $0.047 area. As long as the price holds within the zone, I’m staying on watch: the main scenario is a continued correction.

🛡 Invalidation scenario: a move back above $0.0525, followed by consolidation and a break out of the zone to the upside. That would ease the pressure on support, and we could expect another test of $0.053–0.054. Without that, I’m trading levels only, with no rush.

💬 What do you think: will $0.05062 hold, or are we in for a quick drop to $0.047?

❗️ Stay alert and be careful. Always manage your risk.

$STRK

🔥 $ZEC broke out of the sideways range: targets 1,428 → 1,455 → 1,494

⚡️ $ZEC broke above the local high of the 4-hour range and is holding above 1,380. The momentum is strong, but without confirmation that it can hold, this is still only a potential continuation.

🎯 The first target is 1,428: a reaction zone where partial profit-taking makes sense. Holding above it opens the way to 1,455.

📍 The final target for this move is 1,494. This is a strong level, so we’ll watch for a reaction there and avoid chasing the price.

⚠️ The 4-hour Stochastic is overbought, while the RSI isn’t yet, so a pause may follow the surge. The macro backdrop (Fed rhetoric, ETF flows) could add volatility around these levels.

🤔 Which level will ZEC hit first: 1,428 or straight to 1,455?

❗️ Be alert and careful. Always manage your risk.

$ZEC

📅 **U.S. macro week: PMI, ISM, FOMC minutes and the labor market. What could move the market**

🗓 Monday (today), Kyiv time. September Services PMI comes out at 16:45: forecast 58.7, previous 56.5. At 17:00, the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is released: forecast 55.1, previous 55.4. Strong figures could increase expectations of a hawkish Fed, while weak ones could cool them.

🛢 Wednesday, 17:30. Crude oil inventories, previous reading +0.922M. This is an indirect signal for energy prices and inflation expectations.

📜 Wednesday, 21:00: FOMC minutes. The main event of the week. The minutes will show how united officials were. The odds of an October rate hike are currently estimated at just 18.3%.

💼 Thursday, 15:30: jobless claims. Forecast 200K, previous 197K. An increase in claims points to a cooling labor market and usually lowers expectations of Fed tightening.

🧭 The highest volatility is possible when the data is released. Coming up on the calendar: CPI on October 14 and the Fed decision on October 28. It’s better to wait for a confirmed move rather than chase the first candle.

💬 Which event of the week do you think will have the biggest impact?

❗️ Be alert and careful. Always manage your risk.

$BTC
$ETH

🔥 $SHIB is building strength beneath resistance: the upside target remains in play

🧱 On the 4H chart, the price is holding within a range near the 0.00600–0.00603 zone. This looks like accumulation: pullbacks are being bought, while resistance is being pressured from below.

🚀 A close above 0.00603 opens the way to the local high at 0.006241. Beyond it, liquidity remains untapped and targets remain unfilled.

🛡 If the breakout fails, the zones of interest below are 0.00585 and 0.00575. As long as the price holds above them, the bullish scenario remains valid.

🌍 The macro backdrop is still supportive of the market: odds of a Fed rate hike in October have dropped significantly, and flows into BTC ETFs have been positive for a third consecutive week. But CPI is due on October 14, and the Fed decision comes on October 28. So it’s best to wait for a confirmed close above 0.00603 before calling a breakout.

💬 Which level will break first: 0.00603 to the upside or 0.00585 to the downside?

❗️ Be alert and cautious. Always manage your risk.

$SHIB

🚀 $AIO : long impulse on breakout, RCI on the bulls’ side

📈 $AIO broke the descending line from 0.079 and exited the range 0.035–0.043. Price is around 0.0455, and volumes on the breakout increased. The priority now is the long scenario.

📊 The RCI on 4H turned upward and entered the strength zone (about 74 on the chart). Buyers took control after a long correction.

🟢 Long logic: retest the breakout 0.0422–0.0400 and hold this zone (you can also try from the current levels). This is where the main volume sits by profile, so the buyers’ reaction will be indicative.

🎯 Targets: first 0.0555 (September high); if it consolidates above, the next milestone is 0.0600. The scenario weakens if price falls below 0.0400.

💬 What do you think—will we go into the retest at 0.042, or will we go straight to 0.0555?

❗️ Be careful and stay precise. Always follow risk management.

$AIO

$PUMP : while ALTA is sleeping, it’s charging 🚀

🔥 $PUMP looks noticeably stronger than the rest of the alt market: the momentum is clean, pullbacks are shallow, and the trend remains upward.

📍 After such momentum, chasing the price doesn’t seem appealing. More interesting is the 4h POI zone: $0.0062 – $0.0059$. There’s an unfilled 4h FVG left, and that’s exactly where it makes sense to look for a reaction.

📊 The local high around $0.0066 has already been taken, so the pullback to the POI looks healthy. On the 4h timeframe, the Stochastic and RSI are not overbought, but on the daily, the Stochastic is already overheated. That means the better entry is from the zone, not by chasing the market.

🎯 Target: ~0.009$+. Along the way, consider the supply zone $0.0070 – $0.0075$—it’s reasonable to take partial profit there. Scenario invalidation: a close below $0.0050$. From the middle of the zone, that gives roughly a 1:2.7.

🌍 From the macro side right now, the key things are the Fed rhetoric and inflows into the BTC ETF. If they support risk appetite, it will be easier for alts to hold the momentum. If not, a deep pullback into the POI is quite possible.

💬 What do you think—will the $0.0062–0.0059 zone play out, or will the market manage to dip lower?

❗️ Stay alert and be careful. Always follow risk management.

$PUMP

🔥 $ZEC : correction is approaching the key zone

📉 $ZEC remains one of the strongest coins in the market, but locally it’s declining: after breaking above the rising line, the price retraced from $1700 back to the $1300 area.

🎯 Nearest correction target: a high-volume zone at 1250–1200$. That’s exactly where I expect the buyer reaction—possibly with false moves within the zone before a reversal.

📊 First resistance: 1400–1440$. A return above it will be a sign that the seller pressure is weakening. A consolidation below $1200 cancels the scenario.

🌍 The macro outlook (Fed rate expectations, ETF flows) may add volatility, so how price reacts at these levels matters more than forecasts.

💬 What do you think—will the 1250–1200$ zone hold, or will the price go deeper?

❗️ Be careful and stay cautious. Always follow risk management.

$ZEC

🔥 $AKE : After +3000% is the market preparing another trap?

🎯 The asset has delivered about 3000%. The price has since corrected from the highs and is now ranging around 0.032.

🧲 Limit orders are sitting right next to major liquidation levels, and the price isn’t dropping without signs of big buys. It looks like the MM is setting up a manipulation.

📍 Key zone: 0.027–0.0313. The local low around 0.0285 has already been tested; below it lies long liquidation liquidity. Above the nearest target is 0.0385, and above that there’s a very dense liquidity layer at 0.071–0.0938.

🌍 The macro backdrop also matters: the market is waiting for signals from the Fed rate and tracking ETF flows. In such periods, alts with thin liquidity can move sharply both ways.

⚖️ My scenario: first, sweep out the long liquidation liquidity from the zone, then go long based on the reaction. Bold traders may consider entry from current levels, but with a smaller volume.

💬 What do you think: will they take out the 0.0285 low first, or will the price move straight to 0.0385?

❗️ Stay careful and be prudent. Always manage risk.

$AKE

🔥 $BCH under pressure: 304 decides where the correction will go

📉 The 4H price is holding around 309 after a sharp drop. Every rebound hits the 314–317 zone, and the seller still controls the situation for now.

🎯 Key level — $304. Below it, stops have piled up, and a breakdown with confirmation opens the way down. As long as the level isn’t broken, this is just anticipation.

🧩 Plan: you can enter a short position now with a small volume. The main part of the position is built after a confident breakout of 304. Above 317, the scenario is invalidated.

💰 Take-profit target for closing — around $288. There’s a strong volume zone there, and buyers’ reaction is likely.

🌍 Macro adds caution: the market is waiting for Fed rate signals, while flows into BTC ETFs remain unstable. Risk appetite is weak, and alts react to this more strongly than BTC.

💬 What do you think—will we break 304, or bounce back to 317? Write your thoughts in the comments!

❗️ Be careful and stay precise. Always follow risk management.

$BCH

🚀$SOON : +32% per day, and beneath the price there’s an enormous void

📈 SOON fired from 0.41 to 0.55$ with a single daily candle. RSI and Stochastic on D and 4H are in the overbought zone.

🕳 Below there’s almost no support: between 0.55 and the 0.29–0.30$ zone it’s empty. After vertical impulses, markets often swing back through such gaps.

🎯 The key resistance area is 0.55–0.60$ (day high 0.5614), and above that: 0.63–0.64$. I’m expecting a reaction specifically from here; my limit orders are placed inside the zone.

🌐 Macro adds nervousness: the market is waiting for FOMC/FRС rate signals, and ETF inflows or outflows set the appetite for risk. On low-liquidity alts, this amplifies moves in both directions.

⚠️ SOON is a highly speculative token—best to underestimate the risks. As long as the 0.55–0.60$ zone holds, a pullback looks like the base scenario. A confident close above 0.645$ will invalidate it.

💬 What comes first: a pullback to 0.41$ or a test of 0.64$?

❗️Be careful and stay cautious. Always follow risk management.

$SOON

🔥 $AAVE is growing on positive sentiment, but the chart has reached an important zone

📈 $AAVE has risen by about 11% and is trading at 166–167. The move has been impulsive, without deep pullbacks. Ahead is the first serious sellers’ area: 173–182.

📰 The news backdrop supports the rise. Aave V4 launched the Equities Hub on Base: with tokenized stock as collateral (Apple, Tesla, and others), you can borrow USDC. Plus, Aave Labs’ subsidiary companies have been registered with the UK’s FCA. The optimism is real, but a noticeable part is already priced in after the impulse.

📊 On the daily timeframe, price is entering the area of prior consolidation, from which a sell-off used to start. The impulse hasn’t run out yet, but the room to move is shrinking.

🎯 Plan: don’t short the market—build a position in parts using limit orders in the 173–182 zone. This improves the average entry price and splits the risk across multiple entries.

🛡 Scenario cancellation: a 4H candle close above 182. Targets: 155, then 149, deeper at 140. At 155, it’s logical to take profit on part of the position.

🌍 Macro: the market watches Fed signals and ETF flows. Any news can either accelerate or halt the pullback, so position size should be moderate.

❓ What do you think is stronger: the positive news backdrop or the 173–182 zone?

❗️ Be careful and stay disciplined. Always follow risk management.

$AAVE

🔥 $HYPE : breakout held, price inside the triangle — what next?

📈 $HYPE is trading around 90.4 USDT. On the hourly chart, the structure hasn’t been broken: price aggressively pushed out above a key level and is holding above it.

🔺 A triangle is forming now: on top, a descending line is pressuring around 91–92, and on the bottom, an ascending support line is holding around 89. Volatility is compressing, which usually precedes a momentum move.

🎯 Key levels: 90.24 — the breakout-retention zone; 88.444 — stop-loss; losing it breaks the scenario; 97.992 — take-profit, followed by the psychological level at 100. Upside to target is roughly 1:4 versus the risk.

🌍 The macro backdrop remains important: expectations for the Fed rate and flows in crypto ETFs set the overall risk appetite. For altcoins like #hype , this can amplify moves in both directions.

⚖️ Sentiment is moderately positive: as long as price is above 88.444, buyers are in priority. A drop below that level means a return to the sideways range.

💬 What do you think happens first: a breakout above the triangle’s upper boundary, or a retest of 88.444?

❗️ Stay alert and be careful. Always follow risk management.

$HYPE

🔥 The week that will determine market mood: inflation, GDP and NFP in one chart

📅 Tuesday: CB consumer confidence (forecast 90.1) and JOLTS (7.23M) at 17:00. This is just a warm-up, but weak vacancies are already setting the tone for the labor market.

📊 Wednesday — the main day for inflation. Core PCE (y/y) is expected at 3.4% versus 3.3% prior, and m/m at 0.3%. ADP (70K vs 38K) comes out at 15:15, and GDP for Q2 (1.5%) at 15:30. If PCE is above the forecast, Fed rates stay under pressure—and crypto and other risk assets will feel it first.

🏭 Thursday: jobless claims (199K), PMI (57.0) and ISM (55.0) from 16:45–17:00. Strong industry plus stubborn inflation means the Fed isn’t in a rush to ease policy.

💥 Friday, 15:30 — NFP. Forecast 98K vs 162K last time; unemployment rate 4.1%; wages +0.3% m/m. A weak report may support expectations of rate cuts, but strong wages will bring back inflation fears.

⚖️ The outlook is balanced, with no clear bias. With such a packed calendar, expect volatility spikes around 15:30 on Wednesday and Friday—so it’s better to rely on key BTC levels rather than guesswork.

🗳 What do you think will move the market more: Core PCE or NFP?

❗️ Be careful and stay prudent. Always manage risks.

$BTC
$ETH

📌 $AAVE tests the key demand zone after rebounding from 157

🔥 $AAVE in two weeks delivered a strong impulse — from the 127 area up to the high of 156.94, and now it’s pulling back: −3.37 (−2.16%), price at 152.74. The first serious correction after a strong rally — the market is deciding whether this was a pause before continuation or the start of a reversal.

📊 Price has moved right up to the demand zone 151.40–153.16, from where buyers previously reversed the move. Above that is a dense supply zone 156–160, from where the pullback began. Next, on the higher timeframe, the key resistance is at 163.8.

📈 On the 4H there’s no overbought condition, and on the daily RSI is in the overbought area — a deep correction is quite possible before the asset gathers strength for a new impulse.

🌍 The backdrop is tense — the market is repricing the Fed rate trajectory; flows into spot ETFs this week are mixed, with no clear edge.

☑️ Scenarios: Holding above 151.40 preserves the bullish structure; targets are 156–160, then 163.8. A close below 151 will shift focus to 144–146, from where the impulse began.

❓ Do you think buyers will hold the 151–153 zone, or will the correction go deeper?

❗️Stay alert and be careful. Always manage risk.

$AAVE

$PUMP : return to falling resistance — heading for 0.0054 🚀

📊 $PUMP today is up +6.49%, trading around 0.004465, and is confidently approaching the downward trendline that has been capping the price throughout the decline from the local high of 0.0054–0.0056. The reaction to a breakout of this line is the key moment for the next scenario.

📈 The structure of the past weeks looks like a classic fading drop: the range tightened, the selling volume ran out, and the price began forming higher local lows in the 0.0037–0.0044 area. The current momentum looks like an attempt to exit the descending wedge, and the first candle that holds above the resistance line will confirm a trend change.

🎯 The nearest resistance is the 0.0047–0.0048 zone, after which the path opens toward the target 0.0054 — the local high from which the drop started. A retest of the broken trendline (around 0.0042–0.0043) as support would be a healthy scenario before the continuation of the up-move; a move back below this zone would invalidate the idea.

🤔 What do you think—will PUMP break through the resistance on the first try, or will there be a retest first?

❗️Be careful and stay cautious. Always follow risk management.

$PUMP

🔻 $QNT — short from the 107.93 zone

📌 Such vertical impulses rarely continue from the very first touch of a key resistance—especially when it coincides with a local ATH from last November (the horizontal line at 107.93). The reaction is already visible: two pokes at the level and a downward rejection—this is a typical false breakout / liquidity grab above the old high.

☑️ Entry
Short from 107.93—the area of the high of the breakout candle. You can enter right here on the rejection, or wait for a retest of the level from below for a cleaner entry with less risk.

❌ Stop
Above the local high of the breakout candle, with a buffer under the wick—approximately 110–111. A 4H close above 111 invalidates the setup: that means the impulse hasn’t yet fully exhausted.

🎯 Targets
T2 — 88–90 (~50% retracement of the impulse leg)
T3 — 78–82 (closer to the body of the breakout candle)

⚠️ Risk management
QNT is a small-cap and volatile asset; volumes relative to its market cap are not very high—moves can be sharp in both directions, so leverage and position size are conservative. The main risk: if #BTC #ETH are strong and the market is in risk-on, then alts can easily push through levels like these.

⁉️ Which level will be bought first—98, or will they dive straight to 88?

❗️Be attentive and careful. Always follow risk limits.

$QNT