夜饭YF

A painful lesson bought for 1 million
From October 2025 to before the Spring Festival in 2026, in just five short months I earned a hundredfold. However, in the following months of market action, I basically gave all the profits back.

During the downtrend, the sell-off of the A and C waves is very fast and the drop is large—that’s exactly why shorting can make money. In terms of timing, it also lines up perfectly with the period when profits were rising steadily.

As for losing money, timing-wise it’s in the choppy downtrend period right after the C wave sell-off is completed. There’s no clear one-way trend—just back-and-forth whipsaw, repeatedly cutting losses. Not only did I keep stopping out, some of the positions I opened were too large, and when things went wrong I refused to admit it, stubbornly holding on.

After reviewing the last two cycles of bull and bear markets, and mapping Bitcoin’s price action using Elliott Wave theory, the weekly-level K-lines are generally easy to identify and have very consistent patterns.

The hardest part is fighting human nature. Once I had already profited from the main down legs—the first two major down waves—I still wanted to make every last cent. Greed and the inertia of having made money earlier made it impossible to strictly follow my own trading system and adhere to trading discipline. That may well be the root cause of the losses.

I’ve paid a tuition of 1 million. It can’t be only about paying the money—keep doing continuous reviews, keep improving your trading system, and keep managing your emotions, so you can take on the next round of the coming big-BTC bull market again.$BTC $CRCL

$Endgame Thinking on Circle

Duan Yongping mentioned in an interview the idea of 'vaguely correct.'
He doesn’t dive deep into financial reports; they merely help him filter out companies he won’t buy.
He doesn't focus on short-term trends either.
Tracking daily, weekly, or monthly movements is tough,
but looking at three, five, or ten years provides clarity.
This is probably what 'first principles' and 'endgame thinking' are all about.
It reminds me of the endgame discussed in 'On Protracted War.'

How will Circle move forward?
Will the stock price hit $50 again?
Can $USDC continue to boost its market share despite competition?
We can’t predict this year or next,
but looking at a five- to ten-year cycle,
a stablecoin issuance of $3-5 trillion or even more is highly certain.
If CRCL's market share in five years is 30% or 50%,
will USDC's issuance be $1-2 trillion?
Then what should CRCL's valuation be?
Expectations of $500-1,000 billion are reasonable!

Even from the current $125 CRCL with a $30 billion market cap,
there's a potential 20-30x return over the next decade.
If you bought at $50,
congratulations on your hundredfold return.
All you need to do is HODL,
even if the sky falls, just hold on tight.

If Bitcoin ($BTC ) continues in a bear market,
I’ll keep buying more shares if CRCL dips below $80.
If not, I’ll hold my current stocks steady,
looking for short-term opportunities in contracts during an uptrend.

For most retail investors,
CRCL presents a highly certain moonshot opportunity.
As long as you can hold, there's a good chance plenty of people will hit a lifetime
10-100x opportunity.
Even if you’re not going all in, don't allocate less than 30%.

Investing isn’t short on stars,
it’s missing wise folks.
Be friends with time.

🌈 Follow me, I’ll follow back!

$VIRTUAL Lailai these early projects all got pulled, this AI concept hasn't sparked much of a big response yet, but the fundamentals are also quite solid. Keep the big plan steady and ride it for a surge upward!

The storage sector has made the strongest $AR , wiping it out! Whenever the storage sector has a行情 (market setup), it’s usually led by AR. But when I looked at its data, the project’s performance is actually very poor—it’ll eventually go to zero, sooner or later, but it doesn’t affect your play at noon!
In the same sector, $WAL has a small market cap. It hasn’t really risen much, so I bought 2000U. There isn’t much volume, so it may not go up, and it could even drop—it's just human nature at work: people like to buy low-priced cheap stuff (which is often cheap with no good quality). I don’t recommend buying it. I only bought a little to mess around with it. If it doesn’t pump tomorrow, I’ll cut!

From a historical perspective, in major bull markets, the main uptrend at a large level usually requires a long period of consolidation and sideways volatility. If you miss the run, don’t be anxious—there will always be trading opportunities. A $250,000 Bitcoin is very likely to be seen! $BTC $CRCL

The bull market has been going on for so long, yet the returns haven’t risen to the surface. I basically played around for a whole year with nothing to show for it. I haven’t even amassed many followers!
But for no particular reason, I still firmly believe that the return rate will set a new record in this bull market!
Every person who loves trading and investing needs to have confidence in themselves. Keep it up!
Last year I shared mostly trading orders. Going forward, I’ll share more research and analysis information, and fewer screenshots of wins!$BTC $CRCL

If the bull market comes, the basic lineup is still $BTC (or MSTR) + CRCL. Altcoins are less certain, but holding onto the AI theme is probably not a bad bet. So who should you choose on the AI side? My own picks are $TAO + $VVV + FET

$CRCL emptied a bit, but it still was short-lived—when the next bull market comes, CRCL is a candidate that can outperform the big coin!$BTC

Continuous surge of 17,000 points—shouldn’t you short it? $BTC $CRCL

The MicroStrategy has just briefly got out of the red and returned to break-even. Their cost basis is $75,385. Now they’ve moved from a floating loss of $9.904 billion a few days ago to break-even—achieving it in just a short three to five days!
So if they push it up like this without a pullback, do the lessons from past bear markets no longer apply? Also, how about giving it another two or three months for a pullback and consolidation? Right now, this one can only be watched, not chased!$BTC $CRCL

$BABA times re-tested without breaking the prior low, now trying hard to break through the resistance at 133. The current price is a good entry point if you’re bullish—more conservative investors can wait for a breakout above 133 and then buy!

$SNDK The bottom rebounded by 800 points; is it about enough? Maybe it’ll still poke upward a bit—just paused for a little while first!

Domestic AI applications still need to look at ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent. ByteDance hasn’t gone public yet. Alibaba’s consumer attribute is too strong, and recently, due to a revaluation of its cloud computing business, its stock has jumped quite a lot. Meanwhile, Tencent has fallen too sharply recently because it has increased its AI capital expenditure. At this time, with the price around 440, here are my assessments of Tencent:
1、For long-term positions, you can start building; buy the more it drops.
2、For contract short positions, it’s best not to short. If you do short here, the downside move is fairly limited—after all, a 15x PE is considered cheap, so it’s unlikely to replay the 2022 scenario.
3、For contract long positions, you need to wait a bit more. My idea is to continue the consolidation and base-building. The EMA10–120 moving averages should stick together, and then prepare for a breakout. Enter long positions once it stands above the EMA120. Add to the position when it breaks through the 500 level. After confirming an upward trend, a fairly steady and tradable range would be at least those ‘a dozen-plus points’ between 500 and 570.
Just some predictions—waiting for verification, waiting for the moment to strike $HK0700 #腾讯

Maoyou brothers, the sky has collapsed!
The state-owned fund team has run away!
I’m not sure whether they cleared out or reduced holdings,
but at least we’re below 3,487,000 shares now.
Last quarter: 10.4 million shares

Could this mean liquor stocks have truly hit the bottom?
Could tech have truly peaked?
The state-owned fund may still not be bearish on liquor,
but there’s a mission to fulfill.
Where did the money they sold go?
Into tech???
When will Binance list the Moutai futures contract?
Grateful to @CZ , grateful to #茅台

$HK0700 Tencent isn't that it doesn't dare to buy; it's that if it buys now, then in the afternoon and over the weekend the rates would skyrocket, and liquidity is still too weak, so it really doesn't dare to trade (including companies like Xiaomi, Meituan, and Pop Mart).

$GLW Corning, it surged up before the market opened last night, then saw a slow decline during the day, and at the close it suddenly saw a large-volume drop! Even on the daily chart, it rebounded to a key area and got blocked!
No matter how you look at it, it’s like an old immortal clinging to a last breath!

If there’s any rebound during the day or before the evening session, open with gaps higher and go short on the open!

Original words written by Sun Yuchen in his own book: During the investment period, Tesla’s Bitcoin holdings suffered several major crashes, almost wiping me out financially. Since then, I’ve also understood that no matter how confident you are in an investment, leverage shouldn’t be too high!

Even someone as strong as Sun Ge also almost died because of leverage! ​​​$BTC

$GOOGL what happened, got educated!

$SPCX made 2000 but didn’t sell; in the end, it lost 1000U net. No matter how good the financial report is, it can’t hold back the huge unlock selling pressure. Let’s see how it goes later; for now, don’t touch it!

$AMZN reduce Amazon holdings, retain a bit more Google $GOOGL . Amazon boss Bezos also reduced holdings at a high level, he really knows how to do it! As this wave rises, Google is still quite a bit cheaper than Amazon!