希哥大坑不伤身
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Gold plunges $120 over three days; the year-to-date gain nearly wiped out
Spot gold breaks through multiple supports, closing at $4,328 per ounce. It fell sharply by 2.7% in a single day, and briefly slipped below the $4,300 round-number level during the session. Since the August peak of $4,696, the cumulative drop has exceeded 7%.
A triple hit that crushed gold prices:
1. The Fed’s hawkish stance has reignited rate-hike expectations; the probability of a September hike surged from 35% to 66%, while U.S. Treasury yields hit a 15-month high;
2. Oil prices jumped 4.6%, stoking inflation fears and sharply increasing gold’s opportunity cost;
3. A stronger U.S. dollar, along with profit-taking flows, has left the technical picture thoroughly broken.
Market sentiment is hesitant. Declines on shrinking volume make it look like buyers are lacking. SPDR Gold ETF cut holdings by 4.85 tons last week, and net long futures positioning fell to 15 million ounces (far below the January peak). In the Shanghai Futures Exchange, open interest dropped by 6,896 lots in a single day, and thinner trading volume suggests insufficient follow-through demand.
Attention now turns to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls on September 4— the final key data release before the September policy meeting, which will set the near-term direction. However, deeper support still remains: a $40 trillion-plus Treasury overhang and the central bank’s trend of purchasing gold have not changed. Over the long run, the credit-substitution logic for gold has not been broken.
⚠️ Short-term volatility is intense—investors should be cautious. This content does not constitute investment advice.
#美联储加息概率升至68%
Spot gold breaks through multiple supports, closing at $4,328 per ounce. It fell sharply by 2.7% in a single day, and briefly slipped below the $4,300 round-number level during the session. Since the August peak of $4,696, the cumulative drop has exceeded 7%.
A triple hit that crushed gold prices:
1. The Fed’s hawkish stance has reignited rate-hike expectations; the probability of a September hike surged from 35% to 66%, while U.S. Treasury yields hit a 15-month high;
2. Oil prices jumped 4.6%, stoking inflation fears and sharply increasing gold’s opportunity cost;
3. A stronger U.S. dollar, along with profit-taking flows, has left the technical picture thoroughly broken.
Market sentiment is hesitant. Declines on shrinking volume make it look like buyers are lacking. SPDR Gold ETF cut holdings by 4.85 tons last week, and net long futures positioning fell to 15 million ounces (far below the January peak). In the Shanghai Futures Exchange, open interest dropped by 6,896 lots in a single day, and thinner trading volume suggests insufficient follow-through demand.
Attention now turns to the U.S. nonfarm payrolls on September 4— the final key data release before the September policy meeting, which will set the near-term direction. However, deeper support still remains: a $40 trillion-plus Treasury overhang and the central bank’s trend of purchasing gold have not changed. Over the long run, the credit-substitution logic for gold has not been broken.
⚠️ Short-term volatility is intense—investors should be cautious. This content does not constitute investment advice.
#美联储加息概率升至68%
XAU+0.67%
GLDETF+1.61%
Apple Swaps Leadership, Breaking to New Highs
Current market cap: About $4.75 trillion (share price: $325.13)
On its first day under the new leadership, Apple’s share price surged 2.61% against the trend, with the company’s single-day market cap jumping by more than $120 billion (about RMB 81.18 billion). The newly appointed CEO, Tim Cook, has taken the reins, and the market has cast an initial vote of confidence with real money.
Bank of America target price: $380 · Implied market cap: About $5.55 trillion
Based on the current number of shares outstanding (market cap of $4.75T ÷ $325.13 ≈ 14.6 billion shares), a $380 target price implies a market cap of about $5.55 trillion—about 17% upside from the current market cap. That translates to roughly $800 billion of potential value increase.
Bank of America maintains a “Buy” rating, with a target price based on a 37x P/E multiple applied to its 2027 earnings-per-share estimate of $10.29. The catalysts are clear: the September 9 unveiling of the foldable iPhone and a全面 acceleration of the AI strategy.
Current market cap: About $4.75 trillion (share price: $325.13)
On its first day under the new leadership, Apple’s share price surged 2.61% against the trend, with the company’s single-day market cap jumping by more than $120 billion (about RMB 81.18 billion). The newly appointed CEO, Tim Cook, has taken the reins, and the market has cast an initial vote of confidence with real money.
Bank of America target price: $380 · Implied market cap: About $5.55 trillion
Based on the current number of shares outstanding (market cap of $4.75T ÷ $325.13 ≈ 14.6 billion shares), a $380 target price implies a market cap of about $5.55 trillion—about 17% upside from the current market cap. That translates to roughly $800 billion of potential value increase.
Bank of America maintains a “Buy” rating, with a target price based on a 37x P/E multiple applied to its 2027 earnings-per-share estimate of $10.29. The catalysts are clear: the September 9 unveiling of the foldable iPhone and a全面 acceleration of the AI strategy.
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