晓鹏King
13 Posts
晓鹏King
创业者，工程师，投资者
BTC Holder
Frequent Trader
8.9 Months
6 Following
46 Followers
34 Liked
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Is there really that logic of value investing being discussed in the crypto world?
Whether you call it investing or speculation, in the end the purpose is always to make money.
If you can consistently make money in a casino,
then you can also say that you’re doing investing.
On the other hand, if you’re steady and doing well all along,
but then because of one investment,
you end up losing all the money you had before,
then ultimately, it can only be called gambling.
No matter what, what matters in the end is whether you have the ability to make stable, sustainable profits.
$BTC $NVDAB —these two: one is investing, and one is speculation.
Which one would you buy?
Whether you call it investing or speculation, in the end the purpose is always to make money.
If you can consistently make money in a casino,
then you can also say that you’re doing investing.
On the other hand, if you’re steady and doing well all along,
but then because of one investment,
you end up losing all the money you had before,
then ultimately, it can only be called gambling.
No matter what, what matters in the end is whether you have the ability to make stable, sustainable profits.
$BTC $NVDAB —these two: one is investing, and one is speculation.
Which one would you buy?
#大资金做多 $BTC
Recently, the stock market’s semiconductor and storage sectors have started to pull back.
Meanwhile, traditional “old guys” stocks like liquor and banks are becoming popular again.
BTC, as the crypto market’s “old guys” stock,
has also seen a noticeable small wave of gains recently.
Most likely, this is because large capital took short-term profits from semiconductors and then looked for a new target.
However, this rally probably won’t last.
The reason is that, before 30 years ago, the fundamentals of storage and semiconductors were still in an uptrend.
The peak of this wave was in 2028.
This pullback is only institutions taking profits ahead of a six-month period,
plus the market sentiment was amplified by Mate’s comments about renting out computing power before.
But the fundamentals of semiconductors have not changed.
Semiconductor wafer fabs are clearly long-cycle projects.
In the short term, the storage oversupply pressure is still very difficult to resolve.
This wave of semiconductor and storage gains will continue,
but the recent pullback should keep going for a while.
If the price is suitable,
you can add positions a bit!
As for BTC and ETH as the “old guys” stocks,
this rally also won’t last too long.
It’s likely to grind upward slowly,
but in the end it will definitely turn back.
The total amount of money in the market is limited.
If prices rise here, they must fall there!
That’s the so-called ebb and flow of gains and losses.
And in the crypto market, there’s no real concept of fundamentals.
It’s entirely driven by large capital and the overall market trend.
Therefore, in the short term it’s still a choppy range-bound market;
in the medium term it’s a downtrend;
but in the long run, it will definitely be an uptrend!
Currency over-issuance and inflation are the fundamental reasons for long-term growth!
Recently, the stock market’s semiconductor and storage sectors have started to pull back.
Meanwhile, traditional “old guys” stocks like liquor and banks are becoming popular again.
BTC, as the crypto market’s “old guys” stock,
has also seen a noticeable small wave of gains recently.
Most likely, this is because large capital took short-term profits from semiconductors and then looked for a new target.
However, this rally probably won’t last.
The reason is that, before 30 years ago, the fundamentals of storage and semiconductors were still in an uptrend.
The peak of this wave was in 2028.
This pullback is only institutions taking profits ahead of a six-month period,
plus the market sentiment was amplified by Mate’s comments about renting out computing power before.
But the fundamentals of semiconductors have not changed.
Semiconductor wafer fabs are clearly long-cycle projects.
In the short term, the storage oversupply pressure is still very difficult to resolve.
This wave of semiconductor and storage gains will continue,
but the recent pullback should keep going for a while.
If the price is suitable,
you can add positions a bit!
As for BTC and ETH as the “old guys” stocks,
this rally also won’t last too long.
It’s likely to grind upward slowly,
but in the end it will definitely turn back.
The total amount of money in the market is limited.
If prices rise here, they must fall there!
That’s the so-called ebb and flow of gains and losses.
And in the crypto market, there’s no real concept of fundamentals.
It’s entirely driven by large capital and the overall market trend.
Therefore, in the short term it’s still a choppy range-bound market;
in the medium term it’s a downtrend;
but in the long run, it will definitely be an uptrend!
Currency over-issuance and inflation are the fundamental reasons for long-term growth!
After Xiaohongshu spent 1.7 billion RMB to secure World Cup broadcasting rights,
it went into overdrive with aggressive ad placements, poaching stars, grabbing commentators—while also trying to minimize advertisements during the matches.
They even arranged celebrity guests to chat about the game in the halftime.
At first, they were hoping to ride this surge in popularity to push for a listing.
But then, because of layoffs without compensation, their own employees reported them.
In the end, another round of bizarre moves led to the failure of its Hong Kong stock listing!
Has anyone been watching football live streams on Xiaohongshu this year?
#2026足球风潮 #港股IPO
it went into overdrive with aggressive ad placements, poaching stars, grabbing commentators—while also trying to minimize advertisements during the matches.
They even arranged celebrity guests to chat about the game in the halftime.
At first, they were hoping to ride this surge in popularity to push for a listing.
But then, because of layoffs without compensation, their own employees reported them.
In the end, another round of bizarre moves led to the failure of its Hong Kong stock listing!
Has anyone been watching football live streams on Xiaohongshu this year?
#2026足球风潮 #港股IPO
In short-term contracts it’s either long or short.
Follow the trend by the candlestick chart.
Victory is achieved as long as you exceed 50%.
Make sure your take-profit and stop-loss ratios are greater than 2:1.
Friends,
With this approach, can you really make money?
Follow the trend by the candlestick chart.
Victory is achieved as long as you exceed 50%.
Make sure your take-profit and stop-loss ratios are greater than 2:1.
Friends,
With this approach, can you really make money?
A few days ago, when I deposited money on Binance, a coin dealer added my WeChat.
After that, he kept asking me about contracts,
and he also made me look at his live trading account.
Then he wanted to take me to play with contracts.
For the first time, he opened a 100x leverage contract.
He posted screenshots showing that he made a profit of several thousand yuan.
I still haven’t figured out—what is the purpose of someone like this who brings people into trading?
Does anyone know?
#合约 #带单
After that, he kept asking me about contracts,
and he also made me look at his live trading account.
Then he wanted to take me to play with contracts.
For the first time, he opened a 100x leverage contract.
He posted screenshots showing that he made a profit of several thousand yuan.
I still haven’t figured out—what is the purpose of someone like this who brings people into trading?
Does anyone know?
#合约 #带单
After the current BTC price drops below the mining cost, it is expected to trade sideways for about half a year, and then slowly rebound once the market has forgotten.
Just wait quietly for the next wave of market action!
Just wait quietly for the next wave of market action!
晓鹏King
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$BTC #比特币走势分析 The next point is 88000, and then it will rush to 70000.
Currently, the single coin production cost of BTC is around 70000 in pure electricity costs, and the total cost is at 87000. Whether it can reach this point depends on the future value support level! $BTC
The average cost of all Bitcoin values currently is as follows:
Period (Halving Cycle) Time Range Block Reward (BTC) Number of Bitcoins Mined (ten thousand pieces) Average Cost Estimate (USD/BTC) Total Cost (hundred million USD)
Period 1 2009-2012 50 1,050.0 10 1.05
Period 2 2012-2016 25 525.0 500 26.25
Period 3 2016-2020 12.5 262.5 5,000 131.25
Period 4 2020-2024 6.25 131.25 40,000 525.00
Period 5 (partial) 2024-2025 3.125 19.5 90,000 175.50
Total — — 1,987.5 — 859.05
· Calculation process:
· Total number of mined Bitcoins = 1,987.5 ten thousand pieces
· Weighted average cost = 859.05 hundred million USD / 1,987.5 ten thousand pieces ≈ 4,321 USD/BTC
Considering that many early coins have already lost their keys, this part may account for about 1/4 of the total quantity.
In addition to the lost ones, there is also a large portion of long-term holders of Bitcoin, which account for about 3/4 of the total circulating market.
Therefore, the real cost of a single Bitcoin is approximately 21,000 USD.
The only factor affecting the value of a single coin going forward is the electricity cost. Even if controllable nuclear fusion is achieved in the future, making electricity costs approach 0, the maintenance of its infrastructure will still require costs, thus, its price is also unlikely to fall below the current average cost.
Currently, the valuation logic of Bitcoin is based on the cost and time of its mining rewards, and these two points will become increasingly expensive with the accumulation of time. Because the number of coins mined is in a decreasing state, while the time cost remains unchanged, the value of a single coin will continue to rise.
In contrast to the valuation logic of gold, it is known that the total storage of gold on Earth remains unchanged. If it is exchanged equivalently with the total GDP of the world, it means that the increase in global GDP should correspond to the increase in gold prices. It is known that global GDP will continue to increase year by year, and the total amount of USD is also increasing, which means that the value of gold depends on the world's economic growth.
This is somewhat different from Bitcoin's growth logic.
$BTC #比特币走势分析 The next point is 88000, and then it will rush to 70000.
Currently, the single coin production cost of BTC is around 70000 in pure electricity costs, and the total cost is at 87000. Whether it can reach this point depends on the future value support level! $BTC
The average cost of all Bitcoin values currently is as follows:
Period (Halving Cycle) Time Range Block Reward (BTC) Number of Bitcoins Mined (ten thousand pieces) Average Cost Estimate (USD/BTC) Total Cost (hundred million USD)
Period 1 2009-2012 50 1,050.0 10 1.05
Period 2 2012-2016 25 525.0 500 26.25
Period 3 2016-2020 12.5 262.5 5,000 131.25
Period 4 2020-2024 6.25 131.25 40,000 525.00
Period 5 (partial) 2024-2025 3.125 19.5 90,000 175.50
Total — — 1,987.5 — 859.05
· Calculation process:
· Total number of mined Bitcoins = 1,987.5 ten thousand pieces
· Weighted average cost = 859.05 hundred million USD / 1,987.5 ten thousand pieces ≈ 4,321 USD/BTC
Considering that many early coins have already lost their keys, this part may account for about 1/4 of the total quantity.
In addition to the lost ones, there is also a large portion of long-term holders of Bitcoin, which account for about 3/4 of the total circulating market.
Therefore, the real cost of a single Bitcoin is approximately 21,000 USD.
The only factor affecting the value of a single coin going forward is the electricity cost. Even if controllable nuclear fusion is achieved in the future, making electricity costs approach 0, the maintenance of its infrastructure will still require costs, thus, its price is also unlikely to fall below the current average cost.
Currently, the valuation logic of Bitcoin is based on the cost and time of its mining rewards, and these two points will become increasingly expensive with the accumulation of time. Because the number of coins mined is in a decreasing state, while the time cost remains unchanged, the value of a single coin will continue to rise.
In contrast to the valuation logic of gold, it is known that the total storage of gold on Earth remains unchanged. If it is exchanged equivalently with the total GDP of the world, it means that the increase in global GDP should correspond to the increase in gold prices. It is known that global GDP will continue to increase year by year, and the total amount of USD is also increasing, which means that the value of gold depends on the world's economic growth.
This is somewhat different from Bitcoin's growth logic.
比特币可以和黄金进行价值比较
41%
比特币不能和黄金进行价值比较
59%
17 votes • Voting closed
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