wxqdoit

$BTC That 15-minute plunge over the weekend briefly touched $73,510, but the rebound afterward looked a little awkward. OI rose along with the price, while the funding rate remained above 0.008%, suggesting that some traders were adding to long positions. CVD, however, kept moving lower, with aggressive sell orders consistently weighing on the order book. Traders were paying to try longs in the futures market, while selling pressure in the spot market never let up. This kind of divergence often suggests that leveraged longs have not yet been fully flushed out.

There is more than one clue as to where the selling is coming from. U.S. spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $1.28 billion last week, their heaviest weekly outflow since late June. MARA also transferred 500 BTC. A transfer does not necessarily mean a sale, but in this market, it is hard to ignore miners’ moves. A large short position of 1,249 BTC is also on Hyperliquid; it could be a directional bet or simply a hedge.

There are buyers on the other side, too. Santiment data shows that wallets holding 1 to 100 BTC accumulated 14,207 BTC over two weeks, with smaller investors buying the dip. But this buying is spread across many wallets, and whether it can withstand ETF redemptions and a cascade of forced long liquidations will depend on whether spot trading volume picks up over the next few days.

Tonight’s October CPI release could amplify these forces. Market bets on a December rate hike are already around 80%. A hotter-than-expected reading would make crowded longs and positive funding rates fuel for the next round of liquidations. If the $73,500 area gives way, $71,000 could quickly come into view. A cooler reading, combined with short covering and retail buying, could push the price back to $75,000. Whether it can hold there will depend on whether OI cools off and CVD turns positive after the recovery.

Five consecutive down weeks do not, by themselves, make a case for a rebound. After the CPI release, first watch whether the price holds as funding rates fall, then watch when ETF flows turn around.

The bullish candle on November 9 stood out. The Dow posted its biggest one-day gain in seven months, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed nearly 7%, and AMD and Applied Materials surged by double digits. On the same screen, $BTC kept ranging between $74,000 and $75,000, briefly touching $75,000 before weakening again. It has now fallen for five straight weeks and dropped below its 50-week moving average, which provided support three times between 2023 and 2025.

The drivers behind this stock-market rally are clear. Hopes for easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices lower, with Brent falling nearly 6% in a single day. Inflation concerns eased, giving growth stocks some breathing room. In theory, falling oil prices should also be a tailwind for assets that generate no cash flow, but crypto failed to catch it. Last week, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $1.28 billion, with ETH ETFs also posting outflows. Strong employment data then pushed the odds of a December rate hike to around 80%. This shadow of higher rates is clearly weighing on crypto prices more than the modest relief from lower oil prices.

The stock-market rebound also looks like an oversold bounce. Nvidia closed lower that day, and the talk of negotiations remained just an expectation voiced by sources. Stocks can trade on sentiment first; after consecutive outflows and a wave of long liquidations, crypto needs real money to come back in.

October CPI is due tonight at 21:30. It is the last inflation report before the December rate decision. Because last year's shutdown means only month-over-month figures are available, there is plenty of room for interpretation, and sharp wicks and liquidations are likely around the release. If the monthly reading is moderate and rate-hike bets ease, the key question will be whether the price can reclaim and hold $75,000. If the data comes in hot, $71,000 and even the 200-week moving average will come back into focus.

In the days after the data is released, it will be more important to watch whether ETF flows can stop bleeding. A single candle can pull the price back up; whether money returns will determine if this crack can close. This is only a personal observation and does not constitute trading advice.

The Nasdaq rose 2.7% overnight, the S&P 500 gained 2.3%, and U.S. stocks were buzzing. But $BTC is still treading water around $75,000, and some traders have gone so far as to say they’re stepping away from the market for a while. Risk assets have rallied across the board, but it hasn’t followed suit. This divergence is worth a closer look.

The problem starts with its own buying demand. From November 2 to 6, U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $1.282 billion for the week—their biggest weekly outflow since late June—with IBIT accounting for almost all the redemptions. The stock market’s rebound is driven by a recovery in risk appetite, but spot demand for BTC is thinning. No matter how aggressively futures traders go long, they can hardly sustain a meaningful trend on their own.

A deeper constraint comes from interest rates. Nonfarm payrolls came in far above expectations, and CME data show the market now sees more than an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. Stocks can still offset tighter monetary policy with earnings and the AI narrative, but BTC is much more sensitive to liquidity. Every uptick in the 2-year yield puts downward pressure on its price.

October CPI is due at 21:30 tonight. It’s the last inflation report before the December rate decision, and the market consensus is 0.3% month over month for headline CPI and 0.2% for core CPI. If core CPI comes in at 0.3% or higher, a rate hike is all but certain. The rally in U.S. stocks may not hold, and the current divergence could turn into a simultaneous selloff. A softer reading could offer some breathing room, but is unlikely to reverse rate-hike expectations.

After the data comes out, first watch which moves first—and in which direction—in the 2-year yield and BTC during the first 15-minute candle. Whether ETF flows can stop bleeding over the next few days will determine if this divergence is just a temporary bout of outflows or the start of a longer period of going their separate ways.

Last week’s “buying” headlines were a little crowded. Strategy bought 1,036 BTC at an average price of about $79,012. In the same week, MARA sold 13,597 BTC to repay $750 million in debt. With one buying and the other selling, retail investors could easily take each side at face value and read it as a bullish-versus-bearish sentiment signal.

The numbers are more revealing when viewed together. $STRATEGY raised about $284 million this week through an ATM offering of MSTR common stock. It spent only about $81.9 million on Bitcoin, while another $188.3 million went toward repurchasing STRC preferred stock. Most of the proceeds from issuing shares went toward adjusting the capital structure; only a small portion actually reached the spot market. MARA’s 13,597 BTC, by contrast, represented real spot-market supply. On a net basis for the week, crypto treasury companies provided relatively little support to the spot market.

The external environment didn’t help either. U.S. spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of $1.28 billion last week, and BTC fell below its 50-week moving average of about $75,500. Liquidations exceeded $1.15 billion over 24 hours, with long positions accounting for most of them. Forced selling from leveraged traders, combined with spot investors pulling out, left the market short of precisely what it needed most: steady buying.

The fuel for Strategy’s buying channel comes from secondary-market demand for MSTR. Amundi’s purchase of more than $72 million in MSTR was one sign of support. Whether ATM issuance can continue will depend on the share price and its premium holding up. When Bitcoin’s price falls, the stock price often drops even faster, narrowing the window for further issuance.

Keep an eye on two things next: whether BTC can reclaim $75,500, and whether ETF outflows can ease. Until both improve, it’s more appropriate to read “buying” as a financing announcement.

There was one glaring disconnect in the overnight session. The semiconductor ETF surged 7.49%, recovering most of last Thursday’s 12% drop. AMD rose 13.26%, and the entire chip sector bounced back. Nvidia, however, closed at $178.67, down 4.27%, after falling as much as 8% intraday. Investors’ stance was clear: the discount tied to the Jensen Huang incident was being applied to Nvidia alone.

There’s a basis for this separation. The board has formed an independent committee, retained outside counsel, said it has seen no evidence of commercial secrets being compromised, and confirmed that Huang will remain in his role. Orders and capacity expansion—key fundamentals—have so far been untouched, so the market is pricing this as a company-specific reputation and succession issue. Some market participants have noted that the related spread is just 15 basis points, and tokenized stocks such as $NVDAB have tracked the spot price with little deviation.

The real wild card is tonight’s core CPI report at 21:30. Oil fell 4.25% to $86.97, and the VIX eased to 19.92. The broader market has taken a breath of relief ahead of the data. If core CPI comes in above the 0.2% consensus, that relief could quickly evaporate. As risk appetite contracts, investors may first sell their most vulnerable positions; the company-specific discount and macro pressure could compound, making it harder for the sector to escape unscathed. If the reading comes in below expectations, the broader market may keep moving higher, and this discount will likely be left on the sidelines.

The more distant tail risk lies in the investigation’s findings. If it uncovers client favoritism or related-party transactions, the issue would escalate from personal conduct to corporate governance. If a CEO transition comes into play, the valuation anchor for the entire AI chip sector would be at risk. For tonight, the focus is on CPI; after that, watch for the investigation report and statements from institutions. This is for observation only and does not constitute investment advice.

U.S. stocks got a powerful shove higher overnight. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Nasdaq 100 all posted their biggest one-day gains, while the VIX plunged 5.72 points to 19.92—its biggest one-day drop since April 2025. Normally, once volatility eases, risk assets should all breathe a sigh of relief. But $BTC only clawed its way back from below 74,000 to around 75,100, with a limited rebound.

The divergence comes down to interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield remains near 4.86%, and markets are pricing in an 84.2% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December. This rebound in U.S. stocks looks more like a recovery driven by short covering and falling volatility. Pressure on the crypto market, meanwhile, is coming from the flows themselves: spot ETFs saw net outflows of around $1.28 billion last week, and flows have turned net negative for the year. Of the roughly $1.16 billion in liquidations over 24 hours, nearly 90% were long positions. On the same night, the two markets liquidated leverage in exactly opposite directions.

October CPI, due at 9:30 p.m. Beijing time tonight, will test this fault line. If the data is softer and yields fall in response, the U.S. stock rebound will have a stronger footing to continue, and BTC may get a chance to test the 76,000–77,000 range. If inflation comes in hotter than expected and rate-hike bets rise further, the rally in U.S. stocks could quickly fizzle out, pulling both markets lower. In that case, the divergence itself would have little significance.

After the liquidations, long-side leverage has eased considerably. Next, watch whether ETF outflows narrow and whether buyers step in around 74,000 when the data comes out.

Monday’s closing screens looked a little disjointed. Middle Eastern media reported progress on the US-Iran nuclear issue, and the Nasdaq climbed steadily to close up 2.88%. The VIX dropped 5.72 points in a single day, falling back to 19.92—its biggest one-day decline since April 2025. Yet even as fear receded so decisively, Bitcoin traded sideways around 74,900 for the entire US session, ending the day nearly flat, while ETH actually fell about 4.5% over 24 hours.

The pattern of the past few weeks feels familiar. When tech stocks sell off, crypto gets dragged down with them; when tech stocks rebound, crypto stays put. Nvidia fell about 5% that day, yet the indexes still surged, suggesting that money was rotating within the US stock market to find sectors poised to benefit from easing fears. Crypto didn’t make the list. The emotional scars left by five straight weeks of declines have made it slow to react to good news and especially sensitive to bad news.

The source of this recovery was the unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium. The reports have so far come only from Middle Eastern media, with no official comment. Interest rates and the dollar remain the forces that truly determine the backdrop for risk-asset valuations. This week’s CPI report is the real hurdle. If inflation comes in mild, rate-cut expectations could rise and the dollar could weaken, giving crypto a reason to catch up. If the data runs hot, the US stock market’s gains may be erased—and what’s being called a decoupling could give way to a renewed correlation in even uglier fashion.

For now, watch whether BTC can break above 76,000 on strong volume. If it holds, Monday’s move could be seen as crypto lagging behind. If it can’t, even a strong Nasdaq would leave the two markets moving on separate tracks. If the US-Iran reports are denied, the first domino in this rally will fall.

That 5:45 a.m. candlestick came out of nowhere. In just fifteen minutes, $ETH was hammered from 2221 to 2051.9, while $BTC dipped from 75568 to 73385. There were no headlines or macro shocks at the time—just leveraged longs being forced out in droves. By the end of the day, liquidations totaled about $1.15 billion, including $1.04 billion in long positions. ETH alone accounted for nearly half.

A few hours later, the story changed on the other side of the ocean. Middle Eastern media reported progress on the U.S.-Iran nuclear issue, the Nasdaq’s gains briefly widened to 3%, and Brent crude settled down 5.85% at $92.57 a barrel. As oil prices eased, inflation pressures and interest-rate expectations cooled along with them. Tech stocks were the first to benefit, and $QQQ rebounded after its drop.

The crypto market failed to catch the same macro tailwind, and the reason was probably internal. Long positions were too crowded, so once prices broke down, it turned into a stampede. Before the external shift in sentiment could filter through, the market had already flushed out its own leverage. Seen this way, the divergence looks more like a difference in timing; the two markets may not actually have parted ways in their appetite for risk.

Next, it’s a question of which market recovers first. After the liquidations have cleared, if BTC can hold the low of 73385, it’s more likely to follow the Nasdaq’s recovery. The Nasdaq is still down about 3.4% for the week, and geopolitical news is mostly secondhand and could turn at any moment. Before CPI comes out, rate-hike expectations also lack a clear anchor. If this tech-stock rebound is merely a sentiment-driven recovery, crypto could be at risk of retesting its lows.

The two things I’ll be watching most are the strength of the U.S. stock market at tonight’s close, and whether ETH can reclaim the breakdown point around 2200.

Nvidia has fallen into bear-market territory, but the drop itself may not be what’s really unsettling investors. In the same afternoon, Google launched two chips, reports surfaced one after another that Jensen Huang was facing national security scrutiny, and he also stopped attending Anthropic’s CEO forum on Monday. With several developments crammed into an hour, it’s hard for the market to view them separately.

Doug Huber says governance has entered the discussion around Nvidia’s valuation—a significant statement. A considerable part of the premium Nvidia has enjoyed was tied to this person: its product cadence, customer relationships, and ability to navigate a complex geopolitical environment. Once management stability shifts from gossip to a variable that warrants a discount, institutions tend to react directly: trim their positions first, then wait for answers. As for the private timelines circulating in the community, and who received what briefing and when, there’s no hard evidence so far. Treating speculation as a script will only amplify the noise.

There are two possible paths from here. Tengler expects Huang to stay on. If the scrutiny doesn’t gain substance, some of the fear discount could be reversed, but the competitive narrative sparked by Google’s chips won’t disappear. If the scrutiny escalates or there’s a personnel change, the founder premium is what gets stripped away. And if inflation and interest-rate expectations tighten again at the same time, high-valuation growth stocks are often the first to be singled out as risk appetite contracts.

What’s worth watching next is Nvidia’s official response to the scrutiny, and whether capital is leaving the AI ecosystem or rotating into other compute plays. Whether the first rebound in a bear market comes on strong volume will tell us if the market sees this as a passing episode or a new benchmark for valuation.

There are two opposing forces of money at work on the chart. Last week, U.S. $BTC spot ETF net outflows were about $1.28 billion, the highest weekly level since June, with IBIT alone accounting for $1.21 billion. ETH ETFs saw their sixth straight week of outflows, with about $365 million for the week. On the other side, a whale borrowed 22 million USDT to buy 10,000 $ETH at an average price of about $2,155. Another address that had been dormant for more than two years withdrew over 34,000 ETH from an exchange in one go.

From a liquidity perspective, these two things change two different kinds of supply. ETF redemptions are large-scale passive selling pressure, which is transmitted through market makers to the spot order book. Whale withdrawals reduce the chips that can be sold at any moment on exchanges, thinning the circulating float. A thin order book has two sides: it is lighter on the way up, but just as fragile on the way down.

That leveraged buying deserves a closer look. Buying with borrowed USDT means those chips come with a cost basis and liquidation price. After the weekend’s more than $1 billion in liquidations washed through one round, if prices keep moving lower, today’s buyer may become tomorrow’s seller. A withdrawal only shows that the chips left the exchange; where they went and how long they will be held remain invisible.

After five straight red candles, BTC is around $73,500, having already fallen below the 50-week moving average. The 200-day moving average range of $73,000 to $73,600 is the first line of defense right now. The key is whether ETF redemption pressure can ease and whether there is meaningful volume support in this area. If it is lost decisively, the $68,000 area will be the next place to assess support. On the upside, first watch whether it can reclaim the $75,000 to $76,000 range.

The correction in U.S. tech stocks and macro uncertainty are still weighing on the market, so these two pools of capital will likely keep pulling against each other in this gap for a while. Whoever lets go first, the weekly close will give the first answer. The above is only my personal observation and does not constitute any trading advice.

The market diverged sharply on Monday. $NVDA opened down more than 7% after the board launched an independent investigation into Jensen Huang. The key question is whether he has been targeted by foreign intelligence, and the company’s relationship with Megaspeed is also under scrutiny. At the same time, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index climbed 5% intraday, while AMD rose 8.9% after Oppenheimer upgraded it to Outperform.

This divergence suggests money is still in the AI trade, but has temporarily moved away from the sector’s leader. The board has said there is currently no reason to believe company secrets have been leaked, and Huang remains CEO. This looks more like a people-related risk; the business itself has not been directly harmed. The problem is that the investigation has no timetable. Until it reaches a conclusion, the valuation discount will remain in place, naturally prompting institutions to rotate into peers with cleaner narratives.

Don’t read too much into today’s strength, either. BTIG warned that the SOX has fallen below its 200-day moving average, a sign of weak long-term returns. Much of the 5% one-day rally reflects a rush of concentrated rotation flows. Once positioning becomes crowded, reversals can come quickly, and leveraged products can see even more extreme swings.

The real gatekeeper is CPI tomorrow at 21:30. The market is betting on whether expectations for a December rate hike will change. If inflation comes in hot, rising rate expectations will compress valuations across growth stocks, making sector rotation difficult to sustain. Nvidia’s company-specific headwind would then compound the broader macro headwind. If the data is moderate, the rotation could continue, and investors may also revisit the sector’s leader, which has been weighed down by the investigation.

The key things to watch next are whether the SOX can hold on to today’s gains after the CPI release, and whether any new details about the investigation emerge.

On Monday, the chip sector presented a rather contradictory picture. Nvidia fell more than 5% in premarket trading, while AMD surged 8.9% after Oppenheimer upgraded it to Outperform, and U.S. chip stocks as a whole continued to extend their gains. Within the same sector, one stock was being marked down while another was attracting buyers. Money is still in AI—it has just switched vehicles.

It all started with that apology letter from Jensen Huang. The board has formed an independent committee and hired outside counsel to investigate. The official position is that there is currently no evidence of confidential information being leaked; he will continue as CEO, and chip deliveries are not expected to be affected for now. What the market really can't let go of is the connection between the parties involved and Megaspeed, a buyer of computing power. The company has long faced allegations of bypassing chip controls. A private-conduct controversy may gradually fade with time, but once export controls enter the picture, the valuations of the entire computing-power supply chain are at stake.

So $NVDAB is currently carrying a governance discount, with its duration hinging on the closed-door congressional questioning on November 18. If the investigation quickly narrows to an individual matter, the discount could rapidly reverse, and positions chasing AMD would have to turn around. If it uncovers supply-chain violations, AMD will also find it hard to escape unscathed, and rotation within the sector could turn into a broader retreat.

The nearer-term variable is October's CPI, due tomorrow night at 21:30. If inflation comes in above expectations, the odds of a December rate hike will be repriced, putting pressure on high-valuation growth stocks across the board and pushing the governance story of individual stocks into the background. For highly leveraged positions in crypto markets riding the AI narrative, this is also the key factor to watch over the next couple of days.

How tomorrow night's data comes in will determine whether capital continues to rotate within the sector or steps back across the board. The above is solely my personal observation and does not constitute investment advice.

$BTC is sitting near 74,000, barely moving. U.S. stocks bounced, but it didn’t follow. That sluggishness is itself a signal: the market is waiting for an event that could reprice interest rates, and that event arrives tomorrow night at 21:30.

October CPI is the last major inflation report before the December 10 rate decision. After the nonfarm payrolls report, the probability of a rate hike in December has already been pushed above 75%. The market expects headline CPI to rise 0.3% month over month, with core CPI between 0.2% and 0.3%. The disagreement lies in that 0.1 percentage point. If core CPI comes in close to 0.3%, rate-hike expectations will be all but confirmed, and risk appetite will take another step down. Only a core reading clearly below 0.2% would leave room for expectations of tighter policy to ease.

There is also a $125 billion Treasury auction this week, with the 30-year yield hovering near 5.26%. If demand is weak, long-term yields will keep rising, and tech stocks will be hit first. Crypto is unlikely to escape unscathed. With inflation and Treasury issuance risks converging in the same week, the transmission from interest rates to risk assets is actually quite direct.

The flow picture offers no support either. From November 2 to 6, spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of about $1.282 billion. Flows briefly turned positive on the 4th, but returned to outflows on the 5th and 6th. Flows also diverged across issuers: on the 6th, IBIT saw $403 million in outflows, while FBTC had inflows of about $42.8 million. That shows some buyers are stepping in, just not consistently enough yet.

The period around an event is when highly leveraged positions are most vulnerable, and sharp wicks in either direction are possible in the few minutes after the data comes out. I’d rather watch two things: whether 74,000 holds after the data is released, and whether ETF outflows narrow over the next few trading days and inflows persist for several consecutive days.

Friday’s rebound hasn’t found its footing yet, and $NVDAB fell another 5% before the bell. The Nasdaq dropped 3.4% last week, while XLK posted its worst weekly performance since April 2025. On Thursday, Nvidia lost about $440 billion in market value in a single day. SOXX is down 38% from its 52-week high, and Micron is down 45%. On Friday, AMD bounced 9% and Micron rose 5% as the stocks hit hardest the day before were bought back. Is this short covering or money flowing back in? We’ll find out at tonight’s open.

Wall Street analysts are divided. BofA thinks this selloff is about valuation multiples; its FY2028 EPS forecast is still above the consensus estimates for most companies. Morgan Stanley believes the pullback may be nearing its end. Citi, meanwhile, downgraded U.S. equities and upgraded European equities. Three interpretations of the same market.

For a stronger scenario, the key is whether buyers can absorb that 5% premarket drop after the open. If leaders with strong order books and pricing power hold above Friday’s lows, and retail ETF buying against the trend is joined by institutional short covering, Friday’s recovery may finally gain a foothold.

A back-and-forth market is more likely. A valuation reset is unlikely to be over in a week. Leading stocks may hold up relatively well, while companies with nothing but a story continue to bleed, leaving the indexes to churn and digest the pullback.

In a weaker scenario, watch out for retail buying turning into passive bag-holding. If losses deepen after the open and Friday’s gains are completely wiped out, hedge funds may not be done unwinding positions, and the Nasdaq’s gap of more than 10% from its high could widen further. The strength of buying in the first half-hour after tonight’s open will probably offer an early answer.

The weekend’s most striking moment came during Nvidia’s overnight trading. Jensen Huang issued an apology to all employees, and the board launched an independent investigation that same day to determine whether he had become a target of a foreign intelligence operation. $NVDA fell nearly 6% at one point in overnight trading. The market was already cooling on AI, and this news landed at its most vulnerable point.

The stage had already been set. The Nasdaq fell 3.4% for the week, U.S. chip stocks were broadly lower in premarket trading, and hedge funds sold tech stocks at one of the fastest rates on record. What was really draining liquidity was interest rates. After nonfarm payrolls came in far above expectations, some believe the odds of a December rate hike had risen to 80%. Money flowed back into bonds, and high-valuation hardware assets were the first to be repriced.

The crypto market sits at the end of the same conveyor belt. $BTC has fallen for five straight weeks, hitting a low near 75,000, while ETF funds have seen consecutive outflows. Right now, its price action looks more like that of a high-beta tech stock, rising and falling with the Nasdaq’s risk appetite. Blaming the entire sell-off on Nvidia would overstate the cause and effect. The governance turmoil is more like a match; the dry kindling is the expectation of tighter liquidity.

Asia offered a counterpoint: Taiwan’s stocks rose 4.94%, ending a seven-day losing streak, while the Nikkei gained 2.33%—a sign that not every part of this chain is gripped by panic.

Tuesday’s CPI report will determine whether this sentiment persists. If inflation remains stubborn, pressure from Treasury yields and the dollar will continue to weigh on tech stocks and Bitcoin. If inflation cools, there may be a chance for buyers to step in near 75,000. The progress of the Nvidia board’s investigation is another variable, and the market could seize on it separately at any time.

Ahead of Monday’s market open, chip stocks are broadly lower, with Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Marvell, and Arm all falling. The community is still buzzing about turmoil in Nvidia’s management, and one post claimed that $NVDA fell nearly 6% at one point in after-hours trading. The details should be confirmed through official information, but the market has already reacted: hedge funds are selling tech stocks at one of the fastest rates on record.

That selling pressure has spilled over into crypto, and the path is straightforward. AI chips have long been a leading sector for risk appetite. When a leading sector falls, the same leveraged investors tend to cut positions across different asset classes, making it hard for $BTC to escape the impact. For the first time in two months, BTC has closed below its 50-week moving average. It is now holding near $73,000, moving almost in lockstep with the tech sector’s retreat from risk.

Interest rates are a deeper source of pressure. Some community members attribute it to last week’s strong nonfarm payrolls data and the resulting rise in expectations of interest rate hikes. If that is the case, a stronger dollar and higher Treasury yields could lead to repricing in both tech stock valuations and crypto assets. Whether gold can attract safe-haven flows is also worth watching: it could help show whether investors are fleeing risk or pulling back from liquidity across the board.

That makes Tuesday’s CPI report the point where several threads converge. If inflation cools, chip stocks and BTC may both get some breathing room. But if inflation remains stubborn, the $73,000 level will face pressure from both tighter macro conditions and investors pulling out of equities.

I’ll be watching two things. First, whether Nvidia can recover its after-hours losses once regular trading begins. Second, whether Treasury yields and BTC move in opposite directions when CPI is released. The answer to whether the correlation between stocks and crypto is just a brief emotional echo or has become deeply entrenched will likely emerge over those few hours.

Nvidia’s pre-market trading on Monday looked a little awkward. It closed at $186.64 last Friday, then slipped to just above $180 before the market opened, down about 3.4%. Over the same period, TSMC rose more than 6% and SK Hynix gained nearly 5%. Money hasn’t left the AI supply chain; it has simply steered clear of this one name for now: $NVDA .

It started when Jensen Huang apologized in an email to employees over personal matters and also said the board had launched an independent investigation into national security concerns raised in media reports. Accounts differ on which country’s intelligence agency the parties involved may be linked to: some point to Beijing, others mention Singapore. For now, these claims remain at the level of reporting and hearsay and cannot be treated as fact. The board said there was no reason to believe confidential information had been leaked and reaffirmed its support for him as CEO.

The market is more focused on the timing. A closed-door briefing requested by three Republican House committee chairs is scheduled for November 18, the day after the Q3 earnings report. A common move among institutions is to first trim the premium attached to key individuals, then shift positions to supply-chain stocks with a cleaner narrative. That likely explains some of the strength in TSMC and Hynix. If the investigation remains limited to personal matters, the AI story should be largely unaffected. If it touches on customer channels and export controls, expectations for China-related business and valuation multiples will have to be reassessed.

One more reminder: on-chain proxy tokens such as NVDAB and the U.S.-listed NVDA are two different assets, with discrepancies in both pricing and liquidity. When using contracts to express a view, leverage can be amplified during an event window.

The earnings results themselves may also overshadow this issue. Over the next couple of days, first watch the wording used in the guidance when discussing China-related business, then see whether any lawmakers signal their views before or after the briefing.

$ETH When the market was moving sideways, trading was so quiet it felt like an empty arena. This time, ETH fell below 2,100 USDT, with 24-hour trading volume at about $7.981 billion. The community estimates that was roughly five times the usual level, and almost all of that volume came during the decline. The drop was about 6.5%, noticeably steeper than BTC’s. Heavy volume on a decline usually means aggressive sellers are rushing for the exits, while buyers can only keep lowering their bids.

Institutions have offered no cushion either. U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have seen net outflows for a sixth straight week, totaling about $365 million last week. ETHA alone saw about $346 million flow out, while FETH recorded a small net inflow, highlighting a clear divergence within the group. With one fewer steady buyer on the spot market, order-book depth thins, and the same selling pressure can carve out a much longer candle.

There are contrarian buyers, too. An address, 0xFD1…6FEe3, bought back 10,000 ETH at an average price of $2,149.25. The holder sold near $2,358 in August. It is tempting to treat $2,149 as support, but that figure only records the cost of one trade. The current price has already fallen below it, showing that this buying failed to hold the price up. More important than the number is whether the address adds to its position, holds for the long term, or transfers its ETH elsewhere.

The next key event is the release of U.S. October CPI on Tuesday evening. Liquidity in the order book will likely remain thin ahead of the data, and any surprise could be amplified. The key question is whether heavy volume on the way down gives way to lighter volume as prices stabilize, and whether weekly ETF flows can break the six-week streak. Until then, $2,149 looks more like a level that needs to be reclaimed.

That Monday morning wick was a clean, sharp jab. $BTC briefly dipped to around 73500, wiping out leveraged bulls across the board before being pulled back to around 75000. At the same time, Nvidia fell more than 3% after hours, and the perpetual contract linked to $NVDA dropped nearly 4%. Put the two charts side by side, and they almost move in the same breath.

The trigger was Jensen Huang’s apology letter and the board’s launch of an independent investigation. The foreign intelligence angle raised in media reports has not been confirmed by the parties involved. The board has also publicly expressed confidence in management. What the market is really pricing in is whether governance uncertainty at the AI computing leader could spill over into the policy arena. For now, requests for an explanation are still being handled in closed-door briefings, and public hearings remain some way off, so sentiment could cool at any moment.

Crypto was already on shaky ground. It had fallen for five straight weeks, with the weekly close below the 50-week moving average. Spot ETFs saw net outflows of about $12.8 billion last week, and the jobs report pushed rate-hike expectations higher again. Rising rate expectations, pressure on tech stocks, and ETF outflows were already piling up. The Nvidia news was more like a spark landing on dry tinder; it wouldn’t be fair to pin the entire price move on it.

Two price levels matter most from here. Around 75000, the 120-day and 50-week moving averages converge. A sustained move back above them would suggest that the morning’s drop was mainly a leveraged-position flush. If 74000 is breached again on heavy volume, the pressure will be more than just a retest after liquidations. Nvidia’s earnings on November 18 and the U.S. October CPI report will provide answers from the AI narrative and interest-rate perspectives, respectively.

The weekend’s news is still hanging in the air, yet to be tested by a cash-market session. Nvidia’s board announced Sunday that an independent committee of directors had hired outside counsel to investigate, following media reports that Jensen Huang had become a target of a foreign intelligence operation. The board’s wording was measured: there is currently no reason to believe that national security or company secrets have been compromised, and Huang will remain CEO and cooperate with the investigation. He has acknowledged only issues involving personal relationships; the claims involving intelligence remain at the level of media reports and suspicion.

The market’s initial reaction was intriguing. $NVDA fell more than 3% in overnight trading, while Nasdaq futures briefly dropped 0.8% before turning up 0.3%. For now, investors are treating this as a stock-specific risk rather than letting it spill over into sector-wide panic. But overnight liquidity is thin; the real test comes at the cash-market open at 22:30 Beijing time tonight. The stock closed at $186.64 last Friday. Thursday’s low was $181.46, and trading volume that day reached 306 million shares, making it the thickest recent concentration of shares traded.

The problem is that the stock was already in a vulnerable position. It is down about 22% from its October 6 high, has closed lower for five consecutive weeks, and debate over when AI capital spending will pay off has yet to subside. Long positions were already far from comfortable. At a time like this, uncertainty at the governance level can easily become an excuse to trim holdings.

The calendar ahead is packed. U.S. October CPI is due at 21:30 on November 10; if inflation comes in hot, rate-hike expectations could rise, often putting pressure on high-valuation growth stocks first. November 11 is the deadline for Congress to respond on scheduling, and a closed-door briefing is set for November 18. In between, the third-quarter earnings report is due at 06:00 Beijing time on November 18. The key question is whether $181.46 can hold. If both macro conditions and stock-specific factors weaken at the same time, watch for a deeper pullback.

These are personal observations only and do not constitute investment advice.