WiseInvest513

The Live Talk Show Episode 2 is here! Our guest for this episode is a very popular U.S. stock (US equities) influencer on Twitter, @Wendy000120

On Twitter, she shares practical insights as a U.S. stock trader; privately, we call her the “Big Sister Lan,” a genius trader!

She started out as a Web3 beginner. After getting into the community, she jokingly called herself the “king of getting out at the wrong time” (selling too early). Later on, she gradually shifted her focus toward U.S. stocks and AI, slowly finding her direction. In her past tweets, she also provided extremely precise price levels for many products—her traits as a genius trader began to show more and more...

She’ll talk about position management, market research and investment (due diligence) as well as how to filter and select information sources. She’ll also share her transition from emotional trading to placing more emphasis on staying alive in the market. With her witty, humorous, yet insightful style, she’s been followed and loved by many friends...

This Saturday at 8:30 PM (8/22), we’ll be going live on @Bitget_zh. The livestream link is below: https://t.co/wSyVh7nTtK

And at the same time, this is also Big Sister Lan’s first livestream in Web3. In the past, we could only get to know her through her videos. This time, we’ll finally be able to see her real face in the livestream!

We’ll also prepare 100U cash红包 (randomly dropped) in the livestream. Thank you for your continued support—make sure you show up on time when the time comes.

In addition, to thank our X friends for their support, we’re also running a giveaway on X:

Like + retweet this post, and in the comments, write the question you want to ask her. We’ll select 5 people from the comments to receive a beautiful insulated tumbler (the image will be posted in the comments).

This Saturday at 8:30 PM—let’s lock in on the livestream together. We’ll hear how Big Sister Lan went from “getting out at the wrong time” all the way to still being at the table today!

I’ve prepared a lot of精彩 (great) questions too—so we’ll wait for everyone to dig in and explore them together...

See you in the livestream...

Taking advantage of the weekdays when it’s less crowded, I came to Foshan with my partner to stroll around Qinghui Garden…

It’s been a long time since I played in a place like this garden. The last time I visited these kinds of gardens was when I was studying in Suzhou—at the Humble Administrator’s Garden, the Lingering Garden, and the Lion Grove. And before I knew it, a few years have passed.

The architecture in Suzhou gardens is clearly Suzhou-style—more of the “little bridges and flowing water, homes of common folk” kind of scene. What they pursue is a poetic, picturesque mood and a scholar’s spirit.

Overall, the style is elegant and simple, bright and beautiful. It emphasizes the art of “leaving empty space,” and the buildings feel more like scenic backdrops that blend into nature.

Qinghui Garden is more Lingnan style: open, lively, and strongly decorative. It’s different from the restrained and understated feel of Suzhou architecture. Instead, it lays out the scenery everywhere, full of energy.

The garden feels like a venue for displaying wealth and hosting social entertainment. The buildings themselves are the stars—they need to be striking enough to complement the garden, achieving the effect of “1+1>3.”

After walking around, I personally think the biggest difference lies in the windows.

Suzhou-style architecture uses mostly round windows—leaving space as an artistic choice, showing the building and the scenery together.

Lingnan-style windows feature Roman-style arched doors and windows, Baroque-style column capitals, and also very distinctive Manchu windows and colored glass.

I can’t really say which is better. I guess each has its own strengths.

Also, the weather was a bit hot. Sure enough, summer is still best for going to the Northern Summer Resort to beat the heat.

😂😂😂

After hoarding nearly $400 billion in cash, Buffett has finally started to spend

Keep watching this round of Q2 13Fs. After we finish with Buffett, there are two more—once we’re done, we won’t go into it in detail; we’ll just put it on the website…

Earlier we covered Glenview and Eastern Harbour. Today we’ll look at something I think is even more interesting—Berkshire.

After I went through this 13F, my biggest takeaway wasn’t “what stocks Buffett bought again,” but rather this: Berkshire, which had hoarded cash for years and kept saying the market was too expensive, has finally started spending again.

For a long time, Berkshire’s biggest label wasn’t buying stocks—it was selling them.

As cash kept piling up, it reached a peak of nearly $380 billion. The market was even constantly debating: with this much money, when exactly is Buffett planning to use it? And what kind of assets would truly catch Buffett’s eye…

Finally, Q2 brought a change.

In this quarter, Berkshire bought about $23.5 billion worth of stocks and sold about $3.7 billion, directly ending the previous streak of 14 straight quarters where it sold more than it bought. Cash also fell from about $38.02 billion at the end of Q1 to $36.47 billion, and it spent another $4.5 billion to repurchase its own shares.

So the most worth paying attention to this time, in my view, isn’t the ups and downs of any single stock, but the shift in Berkshire’s capital allocation:

From “cash is king,” back to a stage where “the money starts going out.”

So where did the biggest chunk of money go?

Google.

As of June 30, Berkshire held nearly 106 million shares of Alphabet; the value at quarter-end was about $37.76 billion.

Whereas at the end of Q1, it held only about 57.84 million shares—meaning its share count increased by roughly 83% in a single quarter.

Alphabet has now become Berkshire’s third-largest stock investment, behind only Apple and American Express. You can also see it directly in the SEC’s original 13F: in Q2, the combined holdings of $GOOG and $GOOGL were about 106 million shares.

A fun fact: American Express is the stock with the highest return for Buffett—120% return over 34 years…

What’s even more interesting is that I don’t think this can simply be understood as “after Buffett retired, the new management started buying tech stocks.”

Because Buffett himself later publicly said that this Alphabet investment originally came from his own idea. And in June, Berkshire even set aside $10 billion to participate in Alphabet’s financing, helping Google keep expanding its AI infrastructure.

I find this pretty interesting 😂.

Do you remember how Buffett used to evaluate Google?

He and Munger knew very early that this business was extremely good—GEICO was even an early big customer for Google ads. But later, both of them admitted: they missed this investment at the time.

And then, more than a decade later, Berkshire really started buying Google as a core position.

Also, the logic for buying Google now is completely different from ten years ago.

Back then, Google’s core was Search + Advertising. Now, it has Google Cloud, Gemini, TPU, and an ever-growing investment in AI infrastructure behind it.

So when I look at this Berkshire move, it feels more like this:

They missed the internet era of Google in the past, and this time they don’t plan to miss the AI era of Google.

Of course, Berkshire didn’t just buy Google this quarter.

It continued increasing positions in Delta, Lennar, Macy’s, and also introduced a very small D.R. Horton position. On the other side, it kept trimming holdings of Bank of America, Capital One, Ally, Kroger, etc., and it fully exited Constellation Brands.

But when you put these changes together, I think what’s truly worth watching is one big direction:

Berkshire has finally started to think that the prices of certain assets are once again worth taking cash out for—which matters far more to me than “Buffett bought Google, so Google should go up.”

Of course, 13Fs are never meant for copying homework. I mentioned this before: it’s more like a navigation tool for where “big money” funds are flowing…

What we really should watch is this: a机构 that has held more than $360 billion in cash and has been extremely cautious for the past few years—when does it start being willing to take risks again?

The answer from Q2 is already very clear:

The money is moving.

And one of the most important directions within that is Alphabet.

So going forward, I’ll actually keep watching two things:

First, whether Berkshire keeps shifting from net selling to net buying in the next few quarters.

Second, whether the Google position will continue to be increased.

If these two trends continue, then this Q2 may not be just an ordinary portfolio reshuffle.

It could be a turning point for Berkshire—from “hoarding cash,” to “allocating capital to assets.”

And if it keeps moving in that direction, I think it’s absolutely worth ongoing attention. Because a long time ago, Buffett said that the current market isn’t suitable for investing. Now, it hasn’t been that long since then—Buffett has started buying again. Maybe it’s only Google for now, but I believe Buffett has already started buying some tech products from earlier.

Will more tech products come into Buffett’s view in the future? Or, at this stage, does Buffett think tech products are worth investing in?

Judging from Buffett’s past investment experience and returns, the entry points he chooses have actually been quite good. So does that mean that now may be a relatively good time, to some extent?

For us, does that also imply that it’s time to start swinging the bat?

13F on 8.14 has already been fully disclosed for the second quarter. Right now, we’re整理ing and重新记录 everything, and I’m a little excited—we can study the big-money market trends again...

On our WiseHold holdings website, I’ve recorded the holdings of 10 top investment research institutions, as well as the holdings of 20+ political and business celebrities, and I’m continuing to expand it.

The original intention for building this site was only to record data about Buffett/Jung Yong-pyeong and some more well-known celebrities. Later on, as I’ve been researching institutional holdings more and more recently, I found that this part is rarely studied on X (Twitter).

As for this data and the movement of funds, I understand it as being more symbolic of how big money moves—specifically how they view the market...

In my overall market research, I’ve found that the reason retail investors lose money is chasing rallies and selling after they’ve already started to fall. But after researching what big money does, I discovered the opposite: after studying two quarters, I found that the market’s overall trend also essentially follows this same pattern.

We’re currently rebuilding this site as well, and we’re preparing to analyze the changes in each quarter for everyone, as an additional reference...

And for all our website entry points, I’ve increased their priority on our main site. When you enter the main site, you’ll be able to see the five independent websites under Wise that are already launched and operational for use.

Welcome everyone to use our main site and branch sites.

🫡🫡🫡

$MU
Triple Impact 1000—let’s see whether it can hold steady this week...

In my previous post, I mentioned that Micron previously had three relatively clear trends toward an “impact of 1000,” but in the end none of them fully managed to hold above it.

On Friday, during my livestream, I talked about this: I said that if it could reach 1000 again on Friday, then next week’s story would be easier to sing.

And if it didn’t, we still look at the chart action. Friday’s move was clearly a bit strong. Now on Monday it has just come up to 990 and is already pushing toward an attempt at 1000.

It’s the same with SanDisk too.
$SNDK
It’s continuing to be strong and continuing to push higher, which has the meaning of “blowing up the shorts” a bit.
😂

The most obvious trend judgment I have is that standing above 1000 this afternoon and tonight is pretty much a foregone conclusion. The chart action is clearly dominated by bulls. If they can’t suppress it, then it will move upward further.

Personally, I’m hoping it can hold 1000 for this week. If we can also stack some good news on top (I’ll share that later with everyone), then basically we can gradually establish a new trend—a new trend of pullbacks.

Actually, it’s not just storage products. Every product that fell earlier is on a path of retracement as well. I also have a method for that which I want to share.

Give Codex the list of some products you follow, and then input the key metrics you personally care about. Set it so that every day at a scheduled time, Codex will report the key levels for those key products to you.

As shown in the image, after the market closes you can get a rough analysis. Then you can use that rough analysis to locate the specific products for more detailed analysis. That’s much more efficient.

For example, with $NVDA — AMD, AVGO, MRVL
and some module products, it will provide a simple judgment. These are all better than you analyzing one by one yourself. This is something I’ve been researching recently...

That’s all for now. More content—we’ll share with everyone this afternoon...

If you don’t give yourself the chance to eat shit, then you’ll never have a probability of eating it.

If you know where you’re going to die, then never go there. This is my fairly direct understanding of this post.

This post outside the mainstream is very well written, so I’ll continue and talk about it.

First:

There are extremely, extremely many good products in the market. So I won’t even talk about Nasdaq or the S&P 500. These are products we already know about. I mentioned a little earlier: if you don’t know whether you fit this market, then wait half a year. With the same amount of money, put half into the Nasdaq index and use half to operate on your own. After half a year, if you compare which part has higher returns, you’ll know what suits you……

Second:

So you don’t need to mention it: after the market crazily surged for a while and then came a correction, up to now, most products are basically a “golden pit.”

I shared many things with everyone recently, for example:
1. A series of storage-related products
2. Products related to optical modules
3. Products like ASML
4. Many of the products among the “seven giants” are like this as well.

These products are actually all very good ones. If you truly go research them and buy them, the returns they bring you will definitely be tremendous.

Third:

The real core of meme coins lies in two things: first, the circle layer; second, cash flow!

The circle layer is that you have enough connections and resources. They can call you to go into those products you don’t understand in the first place, get you to buy many chips at the bottom, and then you sell at the wrong time.

Second is cash flow. Because meme coins have huge fluctuations, can you withstand a certain drop and still have capital coming in next month? If you don’t, then don’t touch this product.

Fourth:

Most of these products are essentially a zero-sum game. Even after you accumulate all the experience and understanding, the probability that your next trade is a loss or a win is still fifty-fifty.

I’ll say the opposite, though: if you’re willing to spend half a year or a year researching US stocks, then it’s a positive-sum game. The more you research, the more you understand this market, the more value you can obtain. Then you need to think about what choices you should make.

Fifth: People always have to make choices. The biggest problems with meme coins versus mainstream coins are:

1. Meme coins: high risk, high reward—also a zero-sum game. Someone will always profit, and someone will always lose.
2. Mainstream coins: long-termism for the long run, such as US stocks—where everyone will profit.

So if you’re not in a dead-end situation and you just want to get rich overnight, then go research meme coins; otherwise, leaning more toward long-termism will help your future more.

If I were you, I would:

Watch “Spider-Man,” “Odyssey,” “Dear Abby,” and “Oppenheimer.” These movies can help elevate your sense of aesthetics.

If I were you, I would:

Trade the Nasdaq, the S&P 500, the US stock “seven giants,” storage, and optical module products. These will give you a deeper understanding of the market.

If I were you, I would:

Read books, use AI to improve efficiency, write code to do automation, learn AI automated trading, read earnings reports, and understand the market. All of this has much greater value for our future investing……

There are so many wonderful things in the world waiting for us to discover. If you don’t eat shit and don’t give yourself any chance to eat shit, then you’ll never eat shit. If you know where you’ll fail, then you should never go there.

A person’s choices are always in their own hands. Treat these choices seriously—because they decide your future life.

That’s all……

Great news! Our investment calendar has now been automatically integrated with our main website. You can check it every week to get a basic outlook for the coming week—helping you place orders more effectively...

We started in July: every week, we update the Wise investment calendar for the following week. As of now, it’s been running for more than a month...

There were originally two reasons for doing this. First, we wanted to give everyone a general overview for next week on Monday, so you can form a judgment about the basic market行情 for next week.

The other reason was to continuously enrich the calendar feature we’ve been updating on our site.

Now I’ve combined these two parts into one. You can open our official website—WiseInvest (the website link is in our self-introduction). Click the calendar icon at the top left to enter the full calendar interface.

The calendar will update next week’s content every Saturday at 6:00 PM. These data may not be as clear when viewed in Twitter posts, so we’ve promptly synchronized this information to our website. The site link is in the introduction on our homepage.

I launched this website on the day of this year’s Chinese New Year Eve, and it has continued to be updated for nearly half a year now.

It covers a lot of content, including Twitter posts, articles, account opening instructions, and various benefits. Please feel free to bookmark this website link in your browser favorites so you can quickly access the latest information anytime.

Whether it’s each week’s financial report or any major event, we will introduce it to you in detail in the coming week.

The purpose is very simple: I hope you can truly learn something genuinely valuable from my tutorials, content, and articles—and build a real understanding of the market and行情, so you can keep going steadily in the U.S. stock market.

If, in the past, you’ve found the content on my site helpful, please like this post. Your support is also the biggest motivation for me to keep updating.

That’s all!

Last night I happened to chat with Teacher Qiqi for more than an hour. We also talked about this viewpoint, and she even sent me this line—once again, I have to marvel at how amazingly awesome Qiqi is.

From account operations to marketing, then to project research and investing—down to the principles behind Meme coins: entry timing, the development of the U.S. stock market, time planning, business planning, and more...

In one sentence, it’s still just too comprehensive 😂😂

When I chat with many friends, I always have my own view: friends who truly have insight can tell what you mean even before you’ve fully asked the question, and they can give you an accurate answer. Teacher Qiqi is a perfect example of that. Basically, for any question I asked—before I even finished saying it—she was already answering.

Last night, Teacher Qiqi also said something to me that I think is very good to share with everyone:

“If something is undeniably the right thing for your future career development, then what you’re considering right now isn’t whether to do it or not—it’s that you must do it!

Do it immediately, do it right now. Delaying even one second is disrespect for your own time and life.”

@Web3Dc888 I would like to call Teacher Qiqi the “Web3 Baixiaosheng”

🫡🫡🫡

If, after N years, everything settles and the dust clears, this cycle of the market will surely be written into history.

But how will those who come after define it? I don’t know.

Maybe it will be like the “Age of Discovery” after the 15th century: humankind sailing into unknown seas, opening up new continents, new routes, and new trade networks. In today’s digital world, isn’t it just another new continent? Data and intelligence—like spices, silver, and sea routes in the past—are reshaping global connections, and also redistributing wealth and power.

Maybe it will be like the “Scientific Revolution” of the 17th century: telescopes, laboratories, and the language of mathematics, shattering the certainty of the old world. Today’s AI is also breaking through the boundaries of old knowledge systems, making search, creation, research, education, healthcare, and finance all possible again—rewritten, once more.

Maybe it will be like the “Enlightenment” of the 18th century: reason, knowledge, and institutions began to spread, and individuals for the first time in large numbers realized they could understand the world and remake it. Today’s large models may be turning knowledge from a wall guarded by a few into a tool for more people—helping ordinary people, for the first time, get close to “enhanced intelligence.”

Maybe it will be like the “Industrial Revolution” of the 19th century: the steam engine becomes AI, factories become algorithms, coal and steel become computing power and data. Productivity will leap forward; organizational forms will be restructured; work will be redefined—and society will inevitably go through pains: bubbles, unemployment, polarization, and then rebalancing.

Maybe it will be like the “Internet Age” at the end of the 20th century: it started as a bubble—frenzy and fever—with countless companies going under;

But you remember it—you remember it!

After the bubble burst, what remained was new infrastructure, new business models, and a new global order. Today, standing at the early stage of AI, maybe what we’re seeing is the noise of valuations—but what truly matters is that the underlying paradigm is changing.

Throughout history, every real golden age didn’t just arrive out of nowhere.

They begin with openness, are made possible by breakthroughs, and thrive on risk—and they must inevitably come with a cost.

The commotion of 2020 may not have been the endpoint, but the roar before a turning point; today’s volatility may not be an illusion, but the pains before a new order is born.

We are standing in the middle of the wave.

Some people only see the bubble; some have already seen the infrastructure.

Some only watch prices; some already understand productivity.

Some are waiting for certainty; some are betting on the new era.

The so-called “era” never begins after the dust settles.

It starts with a few people who see the direction, takes shape as the many are forced to adapt, and finally gets written into history—becoming the “so that’s how it was” spoken by those who come later.

If the Age of Discovery opened up the world, the Scientific Revolution rewrote cognition, the Enlightenment awakened the individual, the Industrial Revolution reshaped production, and the Internet Age connected the globe—

Then the AI era may be doing the same thing:

reconstructing knowledge, reshaping production, rewriting wealth, and rearranging the order.

No matter whether there’s a bubble or not—since the era has already reached this point, remember one line: the biggest thing God arranged for us is that it’s fate!

—A sudden realization, sending it to everyone!

Of course—seeing that I (@LeslieLi92210) earned 120,000 U in commission this month, from Mouse Teacher… it’s so envy-inducing you can’t even.

I immediately called during the weekend to ask the Burning Jue for a few pointers and to teach me some experience!

I got a 40-minute crash course—from Pangu creating the world, to human development, community operations, and business logic. It was mind-blowing…

The conclusion is: it all comes down to hard work, and the data really is real.

If any project owner has a need for BD coordination, you’re welcome to contact Mouse Mouse—full marks on service!

I agree with this view!

Because if a person trades frequently, their understanding of the market must be beyond ordinary. They must spend a lot of time doing research and conducting due diligence.

As a KOL—especially on Twitter—there’s some pretty direct data: the more posts you make, the more traffic you can get.

The two things contradict each other. It seems that if you do KOL work on Twitter and your data is good, many people will rally around you—but how much money you can truly earn is something only you really know in your heart.

But sometimes I can’t help wanting to come on and scroll through Twitter to have a bit of fun. So I developed a plugin for myself: I’m not allowed to spend more than two hours on Twitter each day, and once the time is up, I’ll be forcibly logged out.

😂😂😂

The rest of the time is used for market research, placing trades, and working inward.

As of now, there are still many people who want to enter the KOL industry—especially friends who want to invest in the KOL industry—but they haven’t understood the essence of this: the money you can really make through KOL is actually very limited.

Of course, I’m referring to making money solely through simple ad placements. If your skills are strong enough to connect you with enough brand partners and project parties, then that’s a different story.

So in fact, everyone will go through a stage like this. If your initial path starts with doing KOL first, and then you move on to trading, you’ll quickly run into this problem.

The best situation is to become a trader first—produce content on Twitter based on your own understanding and your view of the market—and in addition, you can also satisfy your desire to express yourself.

This stage is actually a fairly good one, because you won’t have any KPI pressure, and at the same time you can learn valuable content shared by people in the market and learn their way of thinking.

At this point, Twitter is for you a channel to get information—not a source of pressure.

$ASML got it from the bottom and achieved about a 150% return—let’s talk about the starting point and the reasons. Once you understand the logic behind this trade, you can understand all the hype...

I actually shared this trade with everyone a few days ago, but at that time I didn’t explain the main reason for why I did this trade. Now I’m going to tell everyone the main reason I set out to open this trade back then.

This line of thinking, I believe, runs through my entire thread—and it’s also a classic. Let me share it with everyone...

First, if you’ve followed me for a while, you should remember that I wrote a post a long time ago. The link is here: https://t.co/XFYmXW8MZg. Back then I said I didn’t think hype has any value, because all hype is meant to prop up the stock price or pull down someone else’s.

But these are all short-term fluctuations. They have almost zero impact on prices in the long run.

Second, in my earlier post about “the market’s trend is very classic—it taught everyone a lesson,” the link is here: https://t.co/SBSnCEQmmX.

Back then I said that its impact on ASML is basically equivalent to none.

When this information is released, the market essentially becomes risk-averse—so the first reaction is a drop. So at that time, it was very possible that a “golden pit” would be formed by the drop.

Third, these two points were a big part of my reasons for setting out to open this trade. At that time, the domestic lithography machine—despite being called “Meiyuan” and so on—had already entered production. So its impact on ASML was very significant. At that time, I also posted that the sell-off was a bit too severe, a bit unreasonable.

Fourth: however, it still wasn’t to an extremely extreme degree. But when I noticed this, I felt that within this situation there must be a rough bottom. I kept monitoring it as well; the lowest price was 1524. I entered at 1582, basically right around that bottom.

Fifth, why was I able to open the trade at the bottom? On one hand, because my judgment about the market was accurate. I knew that once that sentiment had been digested, it would definitely see a reversal. Second, I kept following this product. As it moved to different levels, I had a relatively clear sense in my mind.

Sixth, I was able to open with a heavy position at the time I opened the trade. Now I’ve obtained about 150% profit, so the trade opened is relatively stable—and also feels more comfortable.

Seventh, combining with what I mentioned in my previous thread, there are a few key points:

First point: only focus on a few products you can actually follow. Don’t have too many products—no more than 5. For the sectors, no more than 3.

Second point: understand clearly the logic of their product life cycle and how any external factor in the market at the moment affects their volatility.

Third point: then combine that with some technical analysis to look at the trend on K-line charts.

If you do that, I think your win rate will be much higher.

Eighth, another point I want to briefly share with everyone here—next episode I’ll go into detail.

If you re-enter the US stock market at this time, you’ll find that all US stock products have already hit new highs in the past. It’s just that they’re now repeating the process of knocking on that new high again. In this way, you will have a very large, certain, and guaranteed growth opportunity.

That’s what I said: in the second half of 2026, there will definitely be many opportunities for everyone.

Ninth: if a product hasn’t made a new high in the past and it keeps pushing to new highs, you might feel very panicked. It’s hard to say, but at some time node, its new high may finally arrive—and then it could start a waterfall-style drop.

But now all products are constantly testing new highs, so you won’t have that kind of panic. You only need to quietly wait for favorable news to happen in the market, and then just execute your own trade well.

Tenth: whether it’s US stocks or crypto, the second half of 2026 will definitely be a huge golden pit. Just wait and let all our family members go prospecting for gold.

That’s all.

If you have a small amount of capital, I don’t recommend researching too many products. Just study the “Three Idiots” thoroughly—be direct, no beating around the bush.

First: Only by heavily concentrating (a heavy position) can you make big money. Only with heavy concentration can you leverage more wealth with the same amount of capital.

Second: When you have a small amount of capital, buying many products—under the nicer-sounding idea that “you’ve researched everything”—really just increases your risk. Because not all the products you buy will go up.

Third: Once you’ve looked at too many products, your sensitivity to any single one drops. You won’t know when you should open long positions, when you should open short positions, when to enter, and when to exit.

Fourth: Once things become unclear, all your logic for opening trades and your judgments turn into a kind of “gamble.” And if it’s a gamble, you’re guaranteed to lose.

Fifth: Why do I say that with the “Three Idiots,” people with small capital can give it a try? Because its certainty is higher.

Right now, the three “Three Idiots” products have all been to the highest points, and they’re all磨 (consolidating) at the bottom. In the future, they will continue to return to the highs!

Sixth: Because they’ve been to that position, and they’ve also reached that position. So, in terms of the big-picture direction, you can hold a very long trade from the bottom.

In the short-term direction, before a fairly large move has played out, it’s like what I said earlier:

1. If it’s at a high position, you can open a short.
2. If it’s at a low position, you can open a long.

Seventh: When every day you can look at its K-line in very detailed fashion, and it gets imprinted in your mind—then any fluctuation it makes gives you a 50% or higher chance to judge the correct direction. At that point, your win rate will be much higher.

Eighth: When you have a small amount of capital, using this kind of approach to “bet” can make your win rate very high. And when you truly have a larger amount of capital, you can allocate it into products with a longer time horizon. By then, once your selection range increases, your choices will also change.

Tenth: Perhaps every person has to go through a heart-wrenching liquidation event, or a heart-wrenching loss, before they truly understand: only with heavy positioning can you make money, and only with real research can you obtain wealth with genuine meaning.

Save Three Stooges said last time that they were already preparing at the bottom to start a callback (pullback). I also shared my own orders and profits with everyone. If last time you managed to get on board, then I think you should have a pretty good return by now.

$SNDK
$MU

$SKHY

As for me personally, I feel that this pullback hasn’t ended yet. Micron could very possibly try to push toward 1000, but whether it can hold above 1000 is something I can’t tell clearly for now. However, based on the current situation, it still has a lot of potential to move upward.

Even up to now, I think if you want to place orders at this level, you can try opening a small long position. I still believe there’s a fairly large range for upside.

Everyone can also achieve some solid returns……

Oh no, the empty spcx is already down by $10,000 🥹🥹🥹

Ma’s fans are a bit stubborn

Last Friday, I was chatting about the market in my livestream. I remember it very clearly: after the market opened at 9:30, I watched the chart with everyone…

Right after the open, it kept climbing. In the livestream, I told everyone, I said: should I close? My position had 200% profit. The friends in the chat said to leave. I then closed my own long position by placing a 120 limit order to close.

When I saw the price continuing to rise, I thought it would come back down, so I immediately placed short orders. I kept placing them higher and higher, starting from 110+. It kept going up, so I kept adding, and now my average price is 124. My short position has somewhat failed; I’m down nearly $8k.

If this wave can’t liquidate me, I’ll keep adding more short positions.

If I really do get liquidated, then there’s nothing to do about it. I’ll just treat it as taking the money I made earlier at
$SPCX
and refunding it back. I’ve been working for free on spcx these days.

But I believe I’m not really doing anything wrong.

From the start, I predicted the market. I shorted all the way down, and I did everything that needed to be done. The money I should have made, I made it too. At least it’s unity of knowing and doing. I said I would short, so I did. Better than a bunch of hindsight-buff “always-guaranteed-profit” influencers. Always-guaranteed profit or whatever—what matters is how much you actually make in the market yourself.

Then there’s this: before the earnings report, my short positions were still profitable. After that, I added to shorts with the average price rising to 117; the shorts that I closed at the low point of 109 were then fine. Later, I also held the long positions and got 200% returns.

But after all this, I believe what Astar said: Ma’s fans’ faith is endless. Right now, the only thing I can do is open long positions to hedge myself, raising the liquidation price.

I need to get to work quickly

Otherwise I’m going to be forcibly logged out.

“The time for scrolling posts” always goes by so fast.

I’ll use another five minutes—let me post something……

🥹🥹🥹 https://t.co/kkviJcSN0L

I developed a plugin for myself that can monitor any interface where I open X on my computer—whether it’s in a browser or locally.

If I don’t meet the daily fixed access count, I can’t open Twitter 🤪🤪🤪

I set a forced option: once I run it, I can’t turn it off for 24 hours.

During the set access times, I only get 30 minutes each time. I also have to choose what I’m going to do when I start, and then I’m allowed access.

For example, if I’m going on Twitter right now, I need to say I’m here to post a tweet—and once I’ve posted, I’m done and I leave.

It greatly reduces the worthless time I spend doomscrolling on Twitter. From now on, when I go onto X, it’s straight to work—otherwise, if I don’t finish the work, I can’t access it.

I suddenly wanted to chat for a few words—both for myself and for my fellow fan friends.

If one morning, you suddenly realize that in the U.S. stock market—where it’s a cycle of bull runs and bear markets—so long as you don’t step away from the trading table, you will always, forever, forever have opportunities, then chances are you won’t be so anxious and consumed by FOMO anymore.

We won’t talk about stretching the whole timeline out to look at an entire lifetime—that would be far too long. Just look at a short three years, or even just one year: you’ll feel how “powerful” time can be.

And besides, most friends who enter the U.S. stock market haven’t even been in it for three years; some don’t even have a year. It’s probably too early to decide that this market isn’t for you, or to say that you can’t achieve anything, or to define your success too soon.

In real life, if you want to build something significant and accomplish a real career, you need time to accumulate. To find a decent job, you have to spend four years of your college life—just to land a job with a monthly salary over ten thousand.

It’s the same in this market. If you still have your own steady cash flow, and if you’re still working, then just leave yourself enough time.

Don’t easily feel disappointed by the market, and don’t underestimate a market that is ultimately driven by the purpose of seizing wealth.

No matter how many visions you have—and how much effort you’re willing to put in—when you consider the returns from the perspective of your entire life, the returns here will definitely be huge, absolutely huge…

$GOOG is kind of intense, to be honest! Recently, its disclosed external investment holdings show that it holds $SPCX — and one company makes up about 95% of the position!

An investment of $900 million, over 15 years, now worth $90 billion—more than a 100x return……

Let’s talk about some details……

According to Alphabet’s 13F as of June 30, 2026, it disclosed a total of 29 publicly traded securities holdings, with a total market value of about $99.08 billion; among them, SpaceX has 551,189,500 shares, with a quarter-end value of about $94.18 billion, accounting for roughly 95.05% of the entire 13F portfolio.

However, there’s a very key detail here: this is not Google suddenly spending more than $90 billion to buy SpaceX recently.

Quite the opposite—this is actually a super long-term investment that’s been held for over 10 years.

In January 2015, Google participated in a SpaceX financing round. Later, Alphabet clearly disclosed in its 10-K that, at that time, Google invested $900 million into SpaceX;

At the time, media reported that Google received roughly a 7.5% stake, corresponding to a SpaceX valuation of about $12 billion. In that same round, Google and Fidelity invested a combined $1 billion and received close to a 10% stake in SpaceX.

In other words:

2015: Google invested about $900 million.

2026 Q2: In the 13F, SpaceX’s holding value is about $94.18 billion.

Of course, you also can’t simply and crudely interpret it as “Google made 104x,” because there are dilution, equity changes, stock splits, and other factors in between;

But it still can be considered one of the most beautiful strategic investments in Google’s history.

And there’s another place in this 13F that’s very easy to misunderstand. I also haven’t seen anyone talk about it.

That is: after SpaceX went public in June this year, only this portion of equity that Google had held long-term entered the 13F for the first time as publicly traded securities.

So what this 13F really tells us is not that Google just bought SpaceX—rather, after the IPO, we finally get a clear view for the first time of exactly how much SpaceX Google holds.

Also, the $94.18 billion figure is the market cap as of June 30, corresponding to the 551,189,500 shares disclosed in the 13F. That works out to roughly a quarter-end market price of about $170.86 per share—which is not Google’s actual cost basis.

Google’s true earliest cost is still the same $900 million investment more than a decade ago.

Even more interesting: take a look at Alphabet’s remaining 5% of public investment portfolio:

$PL Planet Labs about $1.17 billion;

$ASTS AST SpaceMobile about $795 million;

$ARM about $695 million;

Additionally, there’s also a batch of AI, biotech, and software companies.

So in the past, Google’s investments have had a pretty clear characteristic:

I think it’s quite interesting—let me say a bit more……

It’s not just buying companies that are completely identical to its core business. Instead, it’s willing to bet very early on the foundational infrastructure that could become important over the next decade.

AI, autonomous driving, life sciences, satellites, and communication networks—all fit this.

And the SpaceX investment is especially typical.

Back in 2015, SpaceX was nowhere near today’s SpaceX. At the time, Starlink hadn’t even been formally commercialized, and Google still put down $900 million.

More than ten years later, SpaceX has gradually connected rockets, Starlink, AI, satellite communications, and even future orbital data centers into a whole set of infrastructure.

So after seeing this 13F, I’m actually even more convinced in my earlier long-term judgment on $SPCX.

In the short term, the stock price will naturally be affected by valuation, earnings reports, CAPEX, and lock-up expirations—when I should have been bearish before, I was still bearish.

😂😂😂

But in the long run: I’m still very bullish on SpaceX.

Sometimes the real big opportunity isn’t found by holding 100 companies.

It’s when you truly understand a company and you’re willing to stay with it for ten years.

Actually, if we talk one or two more points, investing one great company in another great company—stepping with your left foot and right foot isn’t exactly rare. Last time, when I talked about Tencent, I mentioned that Tencent has invested in a lot of pretty good companies in China, and that’s essentially also a kind of profitability model.

In the future, I’ll dig deeper into the things we can talk about. See you next time……

NVIDIA starts “finding money for customers” itself: AI’s biggest bottleneck is shifting from compute power to capital—and I think that’s really interesting, so let’s talk about it……

Today I saw a message I think is very important: ＄NVDA, NVIDIA has officially partnered with six institutions—Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs, and KKR—to establish an independent compute-power financing platform. The goal is to unlock more than $500 billion in third-party capital to build AI infrastructure.

My first reaction was: NVIDIA no longer just satisfies itself with “waiting for customers to have money and then buying GPUs.” It’s now proactively solving another problem—where customers can get enough money to build these increasingly expensive AI data centers.

In the past, when we talked about the AI industry chain, it looked roughly like this. I also summarized the detailed process in a post I wrote—feel free to take a look.

AI companies generate demand → Cloud providers such as Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta build data centers with their own cash flow → buy ＄NVDA GPUs → then add HBM, servers, networking, optical communications, power, and liquid cooling.

But this model now runs into a very real issue: AI data centers are just too expensive.

A large AI data center isn’t just about buying tens of thousands of GPUs and calling it a day. Behind the GPUs, you also need HBM, servers, switches, optical modules, liquid cooling, UPS units, transformers, power grid interconnection—and even to solve your own generation capacity.

When data center scale moves from hundreds of MW toward the GW level, capital expenditures can easily reach tens of billions to hundreds of billions of dollars.

So over the past couple of years, we’ve been saying that AI’s bottleneck keeps migrating: first it was a shortage of GPUs, then HBM, then networking, optical modules, liquid cooling and power—and now even “money itself” is starting to become a new bottleneck.

And what NVIDIA is doing this time is essentially solving that bottleneck one step earlier.

Before, it was: “If you have money, I’ll sell you GPUs.”

Now it increasingly looks like: “You have AI demand but not that much money? No problem—I’ll bring Apollo, BlackRock, Blackstone, and KKR, some of the biggest global capital players, into the picture first to help you solve the data center funding, and then you can keep buying GPUs.”

😂😂😂

So I think NVIDIA is really taking the “shovel-selling” business to the extreme.

Not just selling shovels.

It even starts helping customers find the money to buy shovels.

More importantly, if this $500 billion eventually starts to be deployed step by step in the future, it won’t only flow to ＄NVDA.

We’ve just gone through the entire AI industry chain recently, and that money will ultimately continue to flow downstream.

More GPUs are needed for data centers → ＄NVDA、＄AMD;

After GPUs increase, you need more HBM and DRAM → ＄MU、SK Hynix, Samsung;

Tens of thousands of GPUs need to be connected → ＄ANET、＄AVGO、＄MRVL;

Bandwidth continues upgrading from 800G to 1.6T → ＄COHR、＄LITE、＄AAOI;

More servers and racks → ＄SMCI、＄DELL;

Power consumption per single rack keeps rising → ＄VRT、＄ETN;

Data centers begin to face power shortages → ＄GEV、＄PWR、＄CEG、＄VST……

So what really makes me think this is important isn’t that the headline about “another $500 billion” is how exaggerated it sounds.

It’s that it again proves: this round of AI infrastructure buildout has started to expand beyond relying purely on the balance sheets of tech giants, gradually spreading into the broader global capital markets.

In the past, it was Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta paying themselves.

In the future, it may increasingly become: tech companies provide the demand and the customers, NVIDIA provides chips and technology standards, institutions like Apollo, BlackRock, and KKR provide long-term capital, and then the data centers are financed as an infrastructure asset.

That’s a bit like the highways, airports, communication towers, and power plants of decades past.

At first, one company might build them; later, the entire capital market would create financing instruments around these infrastructure assets.

And now, compute power is starting to show a similar trend.

Of course, there’s almost certainly an important issue in the future that we’ll need to keep tracking: if chipmakers participate in financing, capital institutions fund data center construction, and then data centers use the money to buy chips, will this form an increasingly obvious cycle of financing?

I think that risk is worth studying separately later.

But from an industry-chain perspective, what I’m paying more attention to right now is another signal:

AI has grown so big that even the cash flow from tech companies themselves is no longer enough.

When the world’s largest private equity, asset management, and infrastructure funds begin formally directing thousands of billions of dollars into compute power, this AI infrastructure cycle is clearly no longer just a “CAPEX story from a few tech companies.”

It’s slowly turning into a true global capital expenditure cycle.

So I’ll say it again: NVIDIA used to sell shovels, and now it’s starting to help you find the money to buy shovels.

As for where this money ultimately flows—I think that’s the most worth continuing to study and the most worth diving deep into next.

In fact, everyone can take some time to read the post references I shared seriously. Basically, if you look closely, the next overall trend can be inferred from just the three main points……