风潮投研

Is the dealer starting to distribute goods?

Attracting over 1.6 million fans! Another dark horse meme? (Original article from Fengchao)

This dark horse meme named dogs is likely to create Musk's doge myth again.

In the past two days, Twitter and Telegram have been flooded with a black and white dog.

This black and white dog is called dogs. He is currently a robot in Telegram. As long as you are a Telegram user, you can get this black and white dog meme. The longer you register, the more you can get. You can also get it through other activities.

In a previous column, I mentioned that the founder of the ton token is the founder of Telegram, who has a huge traffic entrance. In other words, dogs is the son of the founder of Telegram, just like the relationship between doge and Musk.

Why do I say that he may become a replica of doge?

In communication studies, once a target reaches a certain threshold of popularity, it will be self-reinforced through word of mouth, and thus spread like a virus, becoming more and more widespread. This is also called "breaking the circle".

And this dogs is very smart to allow all users to receive it. The broad mass base plus the powerful platform have accelerated its breakthrough.

Of course, dogs will face many challenges in the future. How to pull the market to form a wealth effect? ​​How to maintain fair distribution? How to continue to maintain popularity? This determines whether he can become the next doge or even challenge pepe's status.

I am Fengchao, a former chief researcher of private equity funds. I insist on doing professional and objective project analysis and looking for 100-fold projects in the primary and secondary markets. If you like it, please follow me.
#币安合约锦标赛 #美联储何时降息？ #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 $BTC

When will the bull market start?

(Original article from Fengchao)

Although Bitcoin has fallen back to 54,000 and Germany's sell-off has caused panic, the external situation is getting better.

There are still many factors that drive long-term growth that deserve attention:

Approval of Ethereum ETF S1 form

Trump's support for cryptocurrencies

The United States is about to cut interest rates

The US election is in November, and the Fed's interest rate cuts will swing from September to December.

Expectations generally go ahead. I expect this bull market to start in August-October and reach its peak in 2025.

There will be countless myths of getting rich in this bull market. Keep your funds and don't die before dawn.

I am Fengchao, the former chief macro researcher of a private equity fund. I insist on doing rigorous professional project analysis and macro analysis. If you like it, please follow me.

#美联储何时降息？ #币安合约锦标赛 #Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划

How much room does pepe have for growth? (Independent article by Fengchao)

We can take the last meme king doge as an example. At its peak, doge's market value was close to 90 billion, and this was with the addition of Musk.

The meme king this time is pepe, with a current market value of about 3.6 billion. Although there is no addition from people like Musk, there will be more funds in this bull market (inflation factor).

Judging from the current price, pepe may have a room for growth of 10-30 times.

But I think it will most likely not exceed 30 times.

Why not more than 30 times? Because 100 billion is a very important psychological indicator. Once pepe, a meme coin that essentially has no token function, approaches the 100 billion level, it may be shorted by big capital, and doge was shorted by Grayscale at its peak market value. At this time, it is difficult for retail investors to fight against capital. There may be individual cases of GameStop, but that is due to sentimental factors. And it is difficult for emerging species like pepe to form a firm belief.

How many times will it be in the end depends on the situation of Bitcoin. When Bitcoin reaches 120,000 to 150,000 yuan, it is almost the peak of pepe.

However, even if it is only ten times, it is enough. Even if there is only 100,000 yuan of principal, two bets on ten times can roll up to 10 million! For ordinary people, wealth freedom has been achieved!

I am Fengchao, the former chief researcher of private equity funds. I insist on long-term value investment and rational project analysis. During my career, I have bet on ten times and a hundred times of coins many times. If you like it, please follow me.
#德国政府转移比特币 $PEPE #币安合约锦标赛 #美联储何时降息？

Why do I think that the market value of ton may surpass sol in the future?

1. Pavel Durov, the founder of ton, is the CEO and founder of Telegram, which means that he has huge resources and traffic entrances. The value of this founder is comparable to Musk who has x.

2. From a technical point of view, ton's technical architecture is also very advanced. The main chain has solid coordination and state consistency; the working chain is highly customized and scalable. The shard chain achieves excellent parallel processing capabilities and dynamic adaptability, and TVM ensures the security and reliability of smart contracts.

3. At present, ton's community is very popular. Ton tokens can be used to purchase virtual products on telegram, and the huge user base is potential users.

4. The current ecological performance of ton is also good. There are 792 apps in total, and 14 apps are included in DefiLlama. At the same time, ton's recent tlv has risen rapidly, and the number of participants is also increasing.

Therefore, I am optimistic about the ton variety in the long term. #TON #币安合约锦标赛 #美联储何时降息？

I said I wanted to short before, and now it seems completely correct!😊😊

If you don’t believe me, you can click on the homepage to check it out. There are pictures and the truth!

I am a real fund investment and research practitioner. I am many times stronger than those fake masters who say that if it falls below xx or breaks through xx pattern, it will fall by xx!

But please note that since Bitcoin is still an emerging asset, it may also deviate from macro data (the currency circle often rises and falls inexplicably). It has fallen a lot at present, and it is risky to continue to short.

It’s a pity that Binance didn’t give traffic this time. The background shows that there are only 500 views. I don’t know if these 500 brothers made money by shorting. Anyway, I made some money haha~(￣▽￣～)~. #币安合约锦标赛 #MegadropLista #meme板块关注热点 #美联储何时降息？

The Fed deliberately downplayed inflation! Is Bitcoin going to plummet?

Yesterday I kept emphasizing that although inflation has improved, the key lies in the Fed's speech. Today, it is indeed the case.

Last night, Powell emphasized that "the inflation data so far this year is not enough to give the Fed confidence in cutting interest rates, and more data is needed to boost confidence."

This broke the market's original expectation of two or even three interest rate cuts. The expectation of a rate cut in September basically disappeared. Correspondingly, Bitcoin and gold began to fall sharply.

At present, the Fed unexpectedly used a dot plot at this meeting to indicate that there will only be one interest rate cut this year.

From this point of view, Bitcoin is basically impossible to set a new high before the next data comes out. Considering that it has fallen a lot, it is likely to be sideways or falling in the future.

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The next data will be the PCE data on June 28. Before that, I think it is possible to consider taking a light position to short Bitcoin at highs. (Personal opinion, does not constitute investment advice)

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I am Fengchao, formerly a macro researcher at a well-known private equity fund company. Follow me and I will bring you the most professional analysis strategies. #美国5月CPI超预期回落 #MegadropLista #meme板块关注热点 #美联储何时降息？

CPI is lower than expected! Inflation is cooling down! Will Bitcoin rise sharply?

Data was released ten minutes ago. The US CPI was 3.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.4%. After the news was released, the three major US stock futures all rose in the short term, and the US 10-year Treasury bond fell rapidly.

BTC will definitely rise with it. After BTC joins the fund, BTC is linked to the US stock market as a risky asset. In the future, the synchronization between Bitcoin and the United States will become higher and higher.

Due to the cooling of inflation, the market is currently rising. There will be the most important Federal Reserve meeting at 2:00 tonight. It is a foregone conclusion that the interest rate will remain unchanged at this meeting. The key lies in the speech of the Federal Reserve. Whether it will cut interest rates once or twice this year will be decided at this meeting.

Everyone can go to sleep. Fengchao will watch the speech of the Federal Reserve for you tonight. $BTC #美联储利率决策即将公布 #第55期新币挖矿IO #meme板块关注热点 #美联储何时降息？

This article is purely original from Fengchao, no plagiarism allowed!
If you like it, please follow me. Fengchao used to work in macro research for private equity funds, and can bring you a professional investment research perspective.

The most authoritative interpretation of the reasons for the plunge in the past two days on Binance! Purely original by Fengchao!
The core reason is the abnormality of the US non-farm unemployment rate and employment changes.

Let's take a closer look at the data:
The US unemployment rate in May exceeded expectations by 0.1%
The employment change exceeded expectations by 9.5

This data is contradictory, because there are many people changing jobs, the unemployment rate should be better, but the unemployment rate increased by 0.1%, and the unemployment rate became worse.

I have pointed out in previous articles that the decline of Bitcoin is due to the contradiction between the unemployment rate and employment changes, but why is it contradictory?

The core reason is actually: changes in illegal immigration. (Fengchao is a private equity fund macro research background, and I have been studying this issue in the past two days)

In fact, in the previous data of the United States, the improvement in employment has a lot of illegal immigration factors, because the employment of illegal immigrants is unstable, resulting in an inflated change in the employed population, and various part-time industries have caused distortion of employment change data.

So, the real employment rate is still not very good, but the key lies in the Fed's view. Will the Fed play dumb with this data and continue to insist on not cutting interest rates? This determines whether Bitcoin will rise or fall in the future.

Note: This account Fengchao Crypto Investment is all original. If other bloggers post it, it is definitely plagiarism! Now Binance Square plagiarism is very serious! Please pay attention to Fengchao directly to prevent being deceived!

$BTC #美联储利率决策即将公布 #非农就业人数高于预期 #MegadropLista #meme板块关注热点

Attention! Bitcoin will fluctuate greatly at 8:30 tomorrow night! $BTC $ETH $BNB #BTC突破7万大关 ##meme板块关注热点 #MegadropLista
The June CPI will be released at 8:30 pm Beijing time on June 12!
This is the second key economic data in June, which will set the tone for this month's trend, and there will be a Fed meeting in the early morning! The Fed meeting is crucial! It will determine the trend of the entire month. At present, neither the doves nor the hawks are sure. The biggest reason why the Fed dare not cut interest rates is because of inflation and its stubbornness.
At present, the unemployment rate in May is slightly higher than expected, but the employment change is not increasing. This weird deviation has caused the current market to be confusing.
For details, please refer to my previous article!
Whether it will hit a new high or fall back to 60,000 this month depends on tonight's CPI data and the attitude of the Federal Reserve!
Considering that it has fallen a lot in the past two days, I think that if the data is not too bad, such as CPI is too high, there is limited room for decline.

Let me tell you why BTC plummeted yesterday! $BTC #5月非农数据即将公布
Because yesterday's unemployment rate was 4.0%, higher than the expected 3.9%, indicating that employment has deteriorated.
However, the change in the employed population has indeed hit a new high, indicating that employment has improved, which has caused a contradiction. In addition, BTC has risen too much before. Under this uncertainty, short-term panic selling has occurred!
Generally speaking, if the unemployment rate increases, then employment changes will also decrease, but this time the data obviously showed a rare contradiction. If you analyze the data carefully, you will find that the increase in employment is actually caused by the Federal Reserve due to statistical factors, and employment is still very poor!
But this can indeed be an excuse for the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, so it also puts pressure on BTC.
This article is purely original from Fengchao! If someone else posts the same, it must be copied from me. If you like it, please follow me.

What a wave of pull-ups and drop-downs. BTC was about to be listed on ETFs and it was pulled up at night. It was dropped again in seconds after it was launched. This is not such an obvious way to cut leeks. BTC is at least going to be an international and formal product. How can it continue to be played and become bigger and stronger?
Although it is essentially because the US 10-year Treasury bond interest rate is too high, this kind of pull-up is really...#大盘走势 #热门话题 #BTC #ETH

$BTC #比特币减半 #大盘走势
BTC may pull back in the near future for the following reasons:
Recently, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond has been rising, which is due to the recent hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve.
The 10-year Treasury bond is the anchor of global asset pricing. The interest rate represents the risk-free interest rate. The higher the interest rate, the less BTC is worth investing.
This is also the reason why the trading volume and transaction amount have been very low in the past two days. These two days are all internal transactions in the currency circle, and no big capital from outside has entered the market.
However, because the halving has just happened recently, the miners' income is not bad, so BTC has not fallen further, but has risen slowly.
BTC will become more and more important in the world asset structure in the future, so it will be more and more affected by the US 10-year Treasury bond interest rate.

#比特币减半 #大盘走势 #热门话题
A retracement event will occur before and after each BTC halving.
In 2016, BTC fell from $760 to $540, a 30% retracement.
In 2019, BTC fell from 10067 to 8117, a 19% retracement.
In 2024, BTC fell from 73454 to 59600, a 18% retracement.
Considering that the total market value of BTC is getting bigger and bigger, the retracement will actually become smaller. Therefore, this retracement to 59000 is most likely the bottom. If an extreme situation occurs, the retracement will most likely not be less than 50,000.
I am Fengchao, who comes from the macro research of fund companies and only makes professional short comments.

If the market falls before the halving, there is a high probability that it will rebound after the halving. Cherish this opportunity. This may be the last time to see Bitcoin at 60,000 yuan. #比特币减半 #热门话题
As for how long it will take to soar after the halving, this is uncertain. It may be three months, or it may take off immediately.
After investing for a long time, you must know that there are always some uncertainties in the market.

$STRK #热门话题 #BTC This coin may be cold for a while. The transaction volume is too low. The transaction volume of a coin with a total market value of 1.7 billion is not as high as that of ethfi with a total market value of 800 million. After Cancun, it was obvious that the market did not pay attention to the layer2 sector, and even the entire eth sector was relatively cold.

#BOME #BTC #热门话题

At present, short-term risks in the macro market have been lifted (Japanese interest rate hike, Federal Reserve interest rate decision)

Bitcoin will start a new round of rising mode, but currently the room for Bitcoin to rise is not particularly large. It has been difficult to break through 100,000 in the past two months. Meme has already risen once, and value coins (various new public chains, etc.) may be next. layer2) compensation time.

#热门话题 #BOME #BTC #sol #ETH $BTC

Fengchao original in-depth article: On the relationship between macro liquidity and Bitcoin
(Part.3 has a word limit and is divided into three parts. This article is the third part. For the full version, please click on the homepage)

Now, I am going to talk about the most critical point. The difference between Bitcoin and gold is that gold is a metal and a thing without a "story", while Bitcoin is a series of algorithms, which itself can carry many "stories" For example, Bitcoin Inscription...etc., this is what causes the fluctuation of Bitcoin. Then, if people predict that interest rates will rise (bad for Bitcoin), and at the same time the cryptocurrency field has its own benefits (such as Bitcoin Inscription, nft), Bitcoin's What should the trend be?

This has a lot to do with market value. The current total market value of Bitcoin is 1.3 trillion, which is only half of Apple’s total market value. So assuming that during the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle, Apple’s financial statements perform beyond expectations, what will happen to Apple’s stock price? Obviously, Apple's stock price will rise, and the same is true for Bitcoin. When its market is not as big as gold, its own positive factors are more decisive. At the same time, Bitcoin is currently very volatile, and there are still few big capitals pursuing stability. Big capitals are typical interest-rate-sensitive investors. Even a 0.25% interest rate increase will cause changes in their investment decisions.

In general, Bitcoin is currently in a stage where it is transforming from a venture capital product to a currency that is a means of storage. This process is long. During this process, the pricing logic of Bitcoin will also slowly change, and finally it will become Infinitely close to gold.

Fengchao original in-depth article: On the relationship between macro liquidity and Bitcoin
(Part.2 word limit, three parts in total, this article is the second part, click on the homepage to view the full version) #热门话题 #ETH #sol #BTC $BTC

In modern times, people suddenly discovered that due to special material properties, gold could not be recreated at all, and the total amount was almost fixed. In this way, gold was given financial properties, and it was once used as currency. During this period, it was called It is the "gold standard system". But later, the gold standard system gradually collapsed. This was essentially because gold had deflationary properties, so it could not express more and more commodities, nor could it be over-issued at will, as a tool for the central bank to regulate the economy. In other words: productivity continues to develop, there are more and more commodities, and gold, as a currency that expresses the value of commodities, is no longer sufficient.

Later, paper money replaced gold as the universal currency, but gold did not completely withdraw from the stage of history because of its anti-inflation, easy divisibility, and high degree of consensus.

If we look at it today, we will find that Bitcoin is simply an upgraded version of "gold". Its total amount is fixed and can be divided infinitely. The degree of consensus is constantly strengthening. Therefore, Bitcoin is similar to gold in terms of financial attributes.

In other words, Bitcoin, like gold, US stocks, and commodities, will be affected by interest rates. However, because the price in the financial market includes expectations, if people predict that something will rise in the future, then it will rise in advance. , that is to say, what the macroeconomics really affects the price of Bitcoin is the actual interest rate expectations.

In the short term, if people expect interest rates to rise, then Bitcoin will fall, because Bitcoin itself does not have an interest rate, and rising interest rates will make Bitcoin less valuable. Similarly, if people predict that interest rates will fall, then Bitcoin will rise.

In the long run, Bitcoin will continue to rise, just like gold. This rise comes from people’s over-issuance of currency and the wealth created by technological growth. For ordinary workers or the middle class, , holding Bitcoin or gold is equivalent to sharing these two benefits in disguise. Note that Bitcoin and gold themselves have no use value. Their value only comes from the modern monetary system.

And the most important thing is...