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Short-term holders as a whole remain slightly below their cost basis, with the structure in the “Below 1.0 · Second-Test Watch” phase.
As of 2026-11-08, STH-MVRV stands at 0.9883, approximately -1.17% from the 1.0 breakeven level, with a 7-day change of -0.0426. This corresponds to BTC at approximately $74,398 and a short-term holder cost basis of approximately $75,857. The first test reached a low of approximately 0.687 (2026-02-05), followed by a rebound to approximately 1.042. The second test reached a low of approximately 0.811 (2026-06-05), which the page labels as an ongoing double-test watch.
How should you read this indicator? STH-MVRV is the market price divided by the realized price of coins held for less than 155 days: below 1.0 indicates that short-term holders are collectively at an unrealized loss, while above 1.0 indicates a recovery in their cost basis. Historically, recovery periods often feature a “double test” shakeout, with two dips below 1.0 followed by a reclaim. Public comparisons include the two complete double-test structures in 2019 and 2023.
A double test followed by a reclaim of 1.0 can serve as cyclical evidence of a recovery in coin holders’ positions, but it is not by itself a signal confirming the start of a major uptrend. If the metric falls below 1.0 again, or spot demand does not recover in tandem, further validation against long-term holder behavior, liquidity, and cost-basis models is still needed. The dashed-line scenario on the chart is not a price forecast.
More curated on-chain cycle indicators Portal: https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/ Understand market cycles like a professional analyst $BTC
1. Galxe is shutting down—claim any unclaimed rewards ASAP
👉 Galxe is merging into Gravity — Quest / ID / Passport will gradually shut down December 5 is the last day to participate in activities. Activity rewards can be claimed until December 15, when the site switches to read-only. Claim any unclaimed rewards as soon as possible.
2. TORPOR frogs mint tonight
TORPOR mints 4,444 on Elysium tonight at 21:00 Shanghai time (13:00 UTC). The official post says 0.09 HYPE. Tier A → B → Public. Check whether you're on the list first: https://torpor.si/mint/
3. Hamster chain Genesis NFT deposits open tomorrow
Squeekchain Genesis Squeek — Deposits open 11/10 0.05 ETH each, max 10 per wallet, with 8,888 for sale. Allocated by Aura tier—not first come, first served. Deposits close and allocations are made before 11/12; NFT claiming/refunds begin 11/13.
https://squeekchain.com/mint
4. Stabilizer testnet epoch almost over
After the epoch ends, you can claim Proof of Swap / Multi-Pool NFTs.
app.stabilizer.finance/leaderboard
5. Cashmere Founding Barn whitelist is highly competitive
10,000+ applications received, with 1,000 spots. GTD/WL selection depends on Goat Street NFT and Robinhood Chain holdings.
mountain.cashmere.exchange
6. Just a few days left to climb the IPX FAN SZN leaderboard
The IPX FAN SZN leaderboard closes Sunday 11/15. Take quizzes to get Fan Cards and earn Aura. https://ipx.exchange/fanszn
7. Leap trading app waitlist / Founders Club
https://www.leap.xyz/
8. Check your final KieDex allocation
https://www.kiedex.app/airdrop
9. Jumper TGE in Q4
TGE is still scheduled for the fourth quarter. https://jumper.xyz/
10. Entropy raises $14 million; another round of affiliate badges
👉 Entropy's 6th round of affiliate badges is out. Invite people via official X/DM. Portal: https://entropy.io/?r=welinkbtc
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12. arcus_xyz raises $97 million Arcus points program: https://app.arcus.xyz/ref/WELINKBTC
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Buy where nobody’s paying attention $BTC is being heavily accumulated by whales The number of whale holding addresses is growing
Last 30 days Addresses holding 0.001–1 BTC decreased by -27,1053 Addresses holding 1–10 BTC increased by +207 Addresses holding 10–100 BTC increased by +24 Addresses holding 100+ BTC increased by +4
There aren’t many opportunities left for retail investors
View details https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/dashboard Track the pulse of address counts across different balance ranges, identify expansions, contractions, and structural shifts in holder tiers.
#链上指标分析 BTC Realized Profit/Loss Ratio Momentum (RPLR-M) Are we entering a new cycle after 11 months of bear-market pressure release?
This chart is showing early signs of a relatively positive cyclical recovery, but for now, it is more appropriate to describe this as waning bear-market momentum and renewed dominance of profit momentum, rather than to conclude that a bull market has begun.
Looking at the historical comparisons in the chart, the most valuable insight is not any single bottom in the red line or spike in the green line, but three consecutive developments: 1. Loss momentum was released in a concentrated burst early in the bear market, then gradually weakened. 2. Negative momentum persisted for about 11 months, a duration close to that of the previous two full bear markets. 3. The bottom-state indicator turned green again, suggesting that the relative balance between profit and loss momentum is beginning to improve.
However, a recovery in momentum does not mean that absolute losses have disappeared, nor does it mean that the price cannot make new lows.
The most important change in this bear market: loss momentum is waning
Looking at Area A from late 2025 through 2026, the indicator’s changes can be divided into three stages.
Stage 1: Loss momentum is released rapidly After entering Area A in late 2025, the red curve expanded noticeably downward. In early 2026, the red line plunged deeply several times, indicating that short-term losses were rising rapidly relative to the normal level of the past year.
Stage 2: Price remains weak, but the red line’s lows gradually rise This is the most analytically significant development in the chart. In the second half of 2026, BTC price remained volatile, and the red momentum line also fluctuated downward several times, but the deepest loss-momentum peaks were concentrated mainly in the early stages of the bear market.
Stage 3: The green line rises again, and conditions enter a recovery phase Around September 2026, the composite state at the bottom of the chart turned positive, and green momentum began to reappear. From October through November, the green curve also made a notable upward move. This is a relatively positive signal: the market is shifting from a period dominated by loss momentum to one in which profit momentum is recovering.
However, green momentum remains uneven for now, and is nowhere near the sustained expansion seen during historically strong bull-market phases.
So the most accurate characterization of this cycle is: the bear market’s negative-momentum phase may have ended, but a new uptrend has yet to be sufficiently confirmed.
The cost bases of long- and short-term holders are still converging, but the pace has entered the observation window for the “0.48 recovery phase.”
As of the daily reading on 2026-11-07, the LTH/STH cost basis ratio was 0.6427; the realized prices for long-term and short-term holders were $48,743 and $75,839, respectively. The 7-day and 30-day averages were 0.6434 and 0.6471, respectively, while the peak over the past year was approximately 0.7327. It has been 252 days since the ratio crossed above 0.48 on 2026-02-28.
How should you interpret this ratio? It compares the average cost basis of coins held for more than 155 days with those held for 155 days or less. A rising ratio indicates that long-term holders’ cost basis is catching up with that of short-term holders, and that the market is in a phase of coin turnover and cost-basis reconstruction. Historically, readings below 0.48 have often corresponded to deep accumulation. A recovery above 0.48 toward the cycle peak often occurs as cost-basis reconstruction progresses and the trend approaches a potential transition. However, this is a cycle-monitoring tool, not a standalone buy or sell signal.
Whether the ratio can continue rising and when a peak may occur should also be assessed alongside spot demand, liquidity, macroeconomic conditions, and price structure. A single reading should not be taken as proof that the trend has already reversed.
More selected on-chain cycle indicators Portal: https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/ Understand cycles like a professional analyst $BTC
1. Two important things tomorrow: Saturn airdrop registration and TORPOR mint
👉Saturn Credit airdrop registration — Monday, November 9, 22:00 Open to Season 1 / Season 2 participants Only for confirming eligibility and receiving address, not claiming
👉TORPOR Frog NFT — November 9, 13:00 Minting on Elysium Supply: 4,444; officially announced price: 0.09 HYPE. Order: Tier A → Tier B → Public. https://torpor.si/mint/
2. TheAgentFirm (Mergers & Agents) whitelist is closed, check eligibility here https://theagentfirm.xyz/whitelist/
3. Final allocations for KieDex are now available to check https://www.kiedex.app/airdrop
4. Check S2 points on predict.fun; the $PREDICT claim will take a little longer The team confirmed that PP for the first week of S2 has been distributed: 7,509,645 PP, covering 60,213 people.
The Season 1 $PREDICT claim and TGE are still delayed. A new date will be set after Binance Wallet Alpha is back up. https://predict.fun/points
5. Applications are open for the Cashmere Labs Mountain Barn Sale Official update: 1,000 Founding Barns; applications are now open. Official prices: GTD 0.125 ETH, WL FCFS 0.25 ETH; The public round is a Dutch auction, dropping from 1.5 ETH to 0.25 ETH. Apply mountain.cashmere.exchange
6. The Jumper team's TGE is still scheduled for Q4 https://jumper.xyz/
7. Leap (Solana Labs) early testing waitlist The first 150 TestFlight spots are full. Join the waitlist for the next batch. https://leap.xyz/
8. Stabilizer Testnet Epoch 6 is still underway Claim Proof of Swap and Multi-Pool NFT after the epoch ends. app.stabilizer.finance/leaderboard
9. Extended Xpoints conversion rate is out 1 Xpoint ≈ 4.2857 XTEN (300 million community allocation / 70 million Xpoints).
10. Cash rewards are now up for grabs on Ondo Perps Weekly cash prize pool: 250,000 USDC + rewards from a 5 million point pool Rewards page: https://app.ondoperps.xyz/?ref=6G11VG
11. arcus_xyz raises $97 million Arcus points program: https://app.arcus.xyz/ref/WELINKBTC
12. entropyIO raises $14 million Get started: https://entropy.io/?r=welinkbtc
13. metricxyz Earn points by swapping and providing LP Portal: https://app.metric.xyz/r/welinkbtc
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BTC: Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Model [4 Years, 2011–Present] Nine-Color Band
In the short-term holder cost basis nine-color band, price remains below Line7, awaiting right-side confirmation.
As of 2026-11-07, Line5 (STH <155D cost basis midpoint) is $75,839, Line7 (+1σ) is $84,446, and the price is approximately -10.08% relative to Line7. The page status is “Below Line7 · Awaiting right-side breakout”: the start of the most recent macro breakout watch was 2026-08-21, with 0 consecutive confirmed closes to date, over approximately 79 days.
How does this model work? Line5 is based on the realized price of short-term holders who have held for less than 155 days. The volatility of the rolling four-year difference between price and cost basis is then used to generate nine bands from −2σ to +2σ; Line7 corresponds to +1σ. When price moves up to Line7, it often signals that short-term buying power is moving strongly away from the cost-concentration zone. This can be used to monitor trends from the right side of the chart, but it does not confirm a bull market and is not, on its own, a buy signal.
Public historical data highlights how price continued after Line7 breakouts, including on 2019-05-09 and 2023-03-17, making it easier to compare the timing. The dashed extension in the chart is a scenario path, not a price forecast. If price quickly falls back below Line7, further confirmation is still needed from spot demand, liquidity, and long-term holder behavior.
More curated on-chain cycle indicators Portal: https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/ Understand market cycles like a professional analyst $BTC
Track changes in the number of addresses across different balance ranges, identifying the expansion, contraction, and structural shifts across holding tiers.
1. Saturn Credit airdrop registration countdown 👉 Season 1/2 registration opens Monday, 11/9, at 9:00 AM Eastern Time This only confirms eligibility and your receiving address; it does not mean you can claim yet. Claims will open separately at TGE. Season 2 points will continue accruing until TGE or the 12/8 snapshot.
2. KieDex final allocation check 👉 The official account has fixed the S1→S2 migration issue and is preparing for the snapshot/token launch. Check the App/page now to make sure your latest allocation is correct: https://www.kiedex.app/airdrop
3. Binance Alpha thank-you airdrop (awaiting automatic credit) 👉 Snapshot taken: 2026-11-06 23:59:59 UTC. Alpha users with ≥200 points can share a total pool of about $350,000. No points will be deducted, and there’s no need to rush—tokens will be credited automatically to your Alpha account. The official account will announce the distribution time later.
4. Extended · Xpoints conversion rate announced 👉 Program has ended: 1 Xpoint ≈ 4.2857 XTEN (300 million community allocation / 70 million Xpoints). Around 97 Discord Tester role holders will receive an additional bonus. Claims and eligibility are still subject to official announcements and terms.
5. Cashmere Mountain · Barn Sale applications are open 👉 Applications are open for 1,000 Founding Barns, according to the official announcement. Application link: mountain.cashmere.exchange
6. NoahAI Nitro 05 hackathon is still underway 👉 “Build for Breakpoint”: submit a project to earn points, with bonus points for the top three. Quests on the platform are also being updated. If you can code or build, keep grinding the Season 0 leaderboard: https://trynoah.ai/hackathon
7. Arcus Season 1 points distributed weekly 👉 250,000 points have been distributed for Week 5. The official announcement says 250,000 points will be distributed every Wednesday at 15:00 Eastern Time during the campaign. Check your points and ranking on the rewards page:
https://app.arcus.xyz/rewards
8. Entropy second-round $HYPE rebates available to claim 👉 The second round of trading/referral rebates has been distributed. Claim them on the referral page in your account. Snapshot covers activity through 10/9; further distributions will be made periodically. Link: https://entropy.io/?r=welinkbtc
9. SlopCash ($SLOP) Umia auction · Public bidding is approaching 👉 The page is still in Early bidding, after which public bidding will begin. You’ll need ETH on the Robinhood chain + USDG. Check the official FAQ for details on the bidding mechanism. This is a fundraising auction, not a free airdrop. NFA—verify the chain, wallet, and contract yourself. Link: app.umia.finance/slop-cash/auction
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Taking a two-week view, where does BTC's macro momentum currently stand? As of 2026-11-07, the page shows a BTC two-week RSI of 47.50, down 1.63 from 49.13 in the previous period. The 6-week and 12-week averages are 49.64 and 51.55, respectively. The dynamic lower and upper bands shown on the page are 32.91 / 84.03. The current reading remains 14.59 points above the lower band and is in the 40–70 neutral momentum zone—closer to “waiting for a directional move” than to oversold conditions or a confluence with the lower band. Indicator description: This chart uses publicly available daily BTC prices from BGeometrics, resamples them into biweekly candlesticks by taking the final closing price every 14 days, then calculates Wilder RSI(14) to filter out daily and weekly noise. The upper and lower bands are obtained by linearly regressing historical RSI extremes across cycles, and slope gently downward over time. This is a price-derived technical model, not a native on-chain field.
Buy the dip after a 10% pullback: more to gain than to lose; Buy the dip after a 20% pullback: better odds of winning; A 30% pullback? Nothing but golden opportunities.
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Looking back now, every asset offered plenty of good buying opportunities. $BTC $BNB $SOL
When realized losses exceed realized profits, market sentiment warrants extra caution.
Based on daily data through 2026-11-05, BTC’s realized profit-to-loss ratio is 0.85, below the 1.0 break-even line. The page classifies it as being in the bear-market bottom watch zone. The 7-day and 30-day averages are 1.06 and 1.75, respectively, while the 30-day average fell below the 2.2 cycle-cooling watch line on 2026-11-03.
How should you read this indicator? It divides realized profits from on-chain transfers by realized losses. Above 1.0, profit-taking predominates; below 1.0, realized losses exceed realized profits, often corresponding to capitulation, a change of hands among holders, and periods of sentiment under pressure.
One important caveat: A drop below 1.0 indicates that selling is skewed toward realizing losses, putting the market in a watch zone. It does not mean a bottom has been confirmed, nor is it a standalone buy signal. To determine whether selling pressure is truly nearing its end, also consider spot demand, liquidity, short-term holder cost basis, and price structure.
More handpicked on-chain cycle indicators Portal: https://welinkbtc-onchainmain.xyz/ Understand market cycles like a professional analyst $BTC