夏木KRIS

Dual Anchor Currency Era: Why Only Gold and Bitcoin Will Survive in the End

I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.

China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.

When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.

The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.

I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.

This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.

$BTC
$PAXG

The $WLD I’ve been mentioning for a while finally put in a solid performance today.

The price is now back around $0.536, up more than 14% in 24 hours. The AI sector’s performance has been quite noticeable this time, with tokens such as NEAR and INJ also posting sharp gains. This suggests that funds are once again paying attention to AI-related projects.

What makes WLD stand out is that it’s not only connected to AI, but also offers World ID, a digital identity verification service. As AI-generated content and AI agents become increasingly widespread, distinguishing real people from bots could become an important need in the future.

In the short term, though, we’ll need to see whether the inflow of funds can continue. I previously mentioned the opportunity around $0.43, and the price has now rebounded noticeably. If it can break back above $0.55, I still expect it to take aim at $0.60 next.

$NEAR performed exceptionally well today.

The price is hovering around $5.29, up more than 15% in the past 24 hours. Its gain over the past 30 days has already exceeded 100%.

This NEAR rally is somewhat different from previous rallies driven solely by speculation about public blockchain performance. The project is now developing around NEAR Intents, chain abstraction, and AI agents.

NEAR Intents lets users carry out cross-chain transactions by expressing their intent, without having to manage the transaction process on different networks step by step.

If this mechanism can attract more real users, it could mean far more for the NEAR ecosystem than simply increasing TPS.

However, NEAR previously came close to $6 before pulling back sharply. Now that it has returned to around $5.30, the near-term question is whether it can break through $5.50.

If it can hold above that level, $6 could be tested again.

Today, $APT rebounded to around $0.87, up approximately 13% over the past 24 hours.

Alongside the return of market capital, there’s another technical development worth watching. On October 15, Aptos announced that Block-STM v2 had been enabled by default on mainnet.

This is a major upgrade to Aptos’s parallel transaction execution technology, primarily improving the network’s efficiency in processing large volumes of transactions.

Aptos has never lacked technical credentials, with advantages including the Move language and a high-performance public blockchain. But the market’s biggest question about APT has been whether these technical advantages can translate into enough real users and on-chain transactions.

So with this rally, I’d like to see ecosystem metrics improve as well. The price is now approaching $0.90; if it breaks through, there may be room for further gains in the short term.

$ARB rebounded to around $0.20 today, up more than 16% over the past 24 hours—a standout performance.

There have been several noteworthy developments with Arbitrum recently.
First, the USDG stablecoin has been natively deployed on Arbitrum, and DeFi protocols such as Fluid, Morpho, and GMX have started supporting it.

Second, Arbitrum is using a stablecoin incentive program to attract more capital and applications into its ecosystem.
This could help increase activity on the Arbitrum network.

But one thing is worth distinguishing: growth in the Arbitrum ecosystem does not necessarily mean the ARB token will benefit in tandem.
ARB currently serves primarily as a governance token, and how network revenue flows through to token holders remains an issue for the market to consider.

In the short term, $0.20 has been reclaimed.
If the price can hold above this level, I’ll continue watching how it performs around $0.22.

South Korea’s stock market plunged 7.57% yesterday
It rebounded 2% today. Is it time to buy the dip?

South Korea’s stock market has been extremely volatile over the past two days.
Yesterday, the KOSPI plunged 7.57%. Today, it finally rebounded 2.05%, closing at 5,668.05 points.

But one figure is worth noting.
Foreign investors were net sellers of about 3.66 trillion won yesterday. Although they turned net buyers again today, their net purchases totaled just 172.1 billion won.

In other words, foreign investors bought back less than 5% of what they sold yesterday. The KOSPI also briefly climbed to 5,809 points during the day, only to close at 5,668, suggesting there was still considerable selling pressure during the rebound.

South Korea’s stock market is heavily dependent on semiconductor companies such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. Expectations for AI investment and the performance of global tech stocks both have a direct impact on the index. For now, I wouldn’t assume the correction is over just because the market rebounded 2% today.

$SKHYNIX

$METAB This year, Meta is expected to invest $130 billion to $145 billion in capital expenditures, mainly for AI infrastructure.
That’s already an astonishing amount.

But what sets Meta apart from other AI companies is that it already has massive user platforms in Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, and Threads.

If AI can improve ad click-through rates and recommendation efficiency, it could directly boost revenue. Muse, its recently launched AI agent product, is also starting to see user growth. According to the latest reports, Muse has surpassed 2 million daily active users, with 3 million downloads to date.

However, Muse is still free, so user growth can’t yet be counted as revenue. I’m fairly optimistic about $META’s AI strategy, but the question now is no longer whether it can build AI products—it’s whether profit growth can keep pace after investing hundreds of billions of dollars each year.

#Meta巨额AI投入进入回报检验期

TSMC $TSMB —this third-quarter financial report is truly remarkable.

Revenue reached NT$1.49 trillion, up 50.9% year over year. Net profit was NT$763.1 billion, up 68.7%, setting another record.

Even more impressive, gross margin reached 66.4% and net margin 51.1%. That means for every NT$100 in revenue TSMC earns, more than NT$51 becomes net profit.

3-nanometer process technology accounted for 33% of wafer revenue, while 2-nanometer had already contributed 8%. Advanced process technologies are becoming TSMC’s most important source of profit.

Its fourth-quarter revenue guidance was raised to US$52.3 billion–US$54.3 billion, higher than the third quarter’s figure.

One of the surest ways to make money in the AI industry right now may well be manufacturing advanced chips for global tech giants.

$TSMB

Bitcoin falls to $80,000
Whales are buying, but ETFs are selling?

$BTC has recently approached $80,000 again.
One notable feature of this downturn: spot ETFs have continued to see outflows, while some whale addresses have been increasing their holdings.

According to recent on-chain data, some analysts say whales have accumulated a total of about 16,010 BTC as Bitcoin fell from $87,000 to around $80,000.

Meanwhile, on some trading days, net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have reached $260 million to $280 million.
These figures show that the flow of funds within the market is not moving in one direction.

However, whale accumulation does not mean the price will necessarily rise. As long as ETF outflows continue, and global stock markets are also falling, short-term selling pressure could still outweigh buying demand.

I’m not in a rush to call a bottom.
$80,000 is the most important level to watch right now. If it fails to hold, $76,000 will likely be tested again.
#ETFAndWhaleFlowsDivergeCanBTCHold$80K?

Conversely, if ETF inflows resume while whales continue to accumulate, there will be a better chance of seeing a substantial rebound.

#比特币回升至8.2万美元 #比特币短期持有者持仓升至408万枚 #美联储10月加息概率降至约17%

Tesla sold 480,000 cars—so why is the market still unconvinced?

$TSLAB Tesla delivered 486,532 cars in the third quarter, comfortably exceeding Wall Street’s previous estimate of around 457,000.

But there’s one detail worth noting.
Although deliveries beat expectations, they were still down 2.1% year over year, and only slightly up from the 480,000 delivered in the second quarter.

Tesla’s problem now is no longer whether it can sell cars, but how much it can still earn on each car it sells.

In the second quarter, automotive gross margin (excluding regulatory credit revenue) was 16.3%, down from 19.2% in the first quarter.

Demand in Europe is recovering, but competition in the U.S. and China remains fierce. After the earnings report comes out on October 21, the main thing I’ll be watching is whether automotive gross margins have improved again.

As for Robotaxi, Optimus, and the new Roadster, they certainly give Tesla plenty of room to dream big, but these businesses will take time to deliver.

Without a significant improvement in margins, a delivery beat alone is unlikely to fully justify Tesla’s high valuation.

#特斯拉交付超预期后盈利修复成焦点

Netflix is still making money—
so why is Wall Street starting to worry?

$NFLXB will report its third-quarter results on October 20. Netflix’s second-quarter revenue reached $12.56 billion, up about 13% year over year. But its third-quarter revenue guidance is just $12.86 billion, with growth expected to slow to 11.7%.

What’s more noteworthy is that Netflix expects to generate around $3 billion in ad revenue this year, nearly double last year’s figure. In the past, Netflix relied mainly on subscriber growth to make money. Now, price hikes and advertising are playing increasingly important roles.

However, whether ad revenue growth can offset slowing subscriber growth remains to be seen in the earnings report. In particular, news emerged today that Netflix plans to lay off 6% of its workforce and that its head of content is leaving. The stock fell more than 2% at one point before the market opened.

I remain confident in Netflix’s long-term business model, but revenue growth may no longer be the only question this time around. The actual contribution of the advertising business, and management’s outlook for future growth, may matter more than EPS alone.

$NVDAB $AAPLB

Tesla has surprised the market again

Yesterday, Musk officially unveiled the next-generation Roadster, equipped with thrusters developed in collaboration with SpaceX. It can not only turn in midair, but also make short jumps.

After the announcement, $TSLAB rose about 5% at one point in premarket trading on Friday.
However, the car is not expected to enter mass production until 2028, so it will do very little to boost Tesla’s revenue in the short term.

By comparison, Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, beating market expectations, though deliveries were still slightly down year over year.

The earnings report is due on October 21, and I’m more interested in the automotive business’s profit margins and how far along the Robotaxi and Optimus projects really are.

I’ve always thought that Tesla’s biggest appeal isn’t just its electric vehicles, but Musk’s effort to bring autonomous driving, robotics, and AI together under one company.

But the current valuation already reflects a lot of expectations for the future. If the earnings report doesn’t deliver strong enough numbers, the stock could still come under pressure.

I recently took another look at the technical roadmap for @Nillion and found that the project’s current direction has changed quite a bit from where it started.

Nillion used to focus mainly on privacy computing, encrypted data storage, and AI. Now, it’s starting to shift its focus toward Encrypted Markets.

One of the most interesting things to explore is Covenants.
They allow users to encrypt transaction instructions, payments, or other operations in advance, and then have decentralized nodes decrypt them once specified conditions are met.

For example, you could set up a transaction ahead of time so that the relevant instructions are only revealed when the price reaches a certain level.

Unlike ordinary on-chain transactions, other traders can’t read the instructions in advance, before the conditions are met.
This is especially important for on-chain trading.

A major problem with many DeFi trades today is that trading intentions are too easily exposed and can be exploited by MEV bots. Covenants aim to address precisely this kind of problem.
Nillion’s DUSK phase has already introduced Covenants to the Ethereum mainnet, and the project is also migrating its original node network to Ethereum.

And the project’s published roadmap doesn’t stop at a single upgrade.
From 2026 to 2028, Nillion has planned seven phases.

The upcoming Darkfall phase is set to expand to EVM networks such as Arbitrum, Base, and Optimism. Skyglow, meanwhile, aims to enable cross-chain condition triggers and settlement.
Further upgrades will include custom conditions, enhanced privacy protections, post-quantum cryptography, and lower usage costs.

What I’m particularly interested in is the potential for combining Covenants with AI agents. If AI agents need to execute on-chain trades autonomously in the future, exposing their trading strategies and execution conditions ahead of time would clearly be less than ideal.

Covenants offer a different approach: encrypt the instructions first, then execute them once the conditions are met.

Of course, an appealing technical roadmap doesn’t mean the technology has already achieved widespread adoption. We’ll still need to look at the number of real-world applications, how developers are using it, and whether the node network can run reliably.

#nil $NIL @Nillion

Global stock markets are tumbling one after another
The crypto market may remain under pressure!

The Nasdaq fell 1.9% last night, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.1%. Asian markets weren’t spared today either: South Korea’s KOSPI plunged as much as 7.7%, and Japan’s Nikkei fell more than 4%.

September CPI came in hotter than expected, while tech stocks continue to face selling pressure. Investors around the world are reducing their risk exposure.

This is no longer just a problem for the crypto market.

Global stock markets are falling, and $BTC is unlikely to be completely unaffected. Altcoins may face even greater pressure.

The real plunge may be just beginning.

September CPI came in above expectations across the board, and core inflation heated up again. The relief rally the market had expected after the bad news was priced in never materialized.

The biggest concern now isn’t how much $BTC has already fallen, but that this downturn may not be over yet.

If $80,000 doesn’t hold, the price will very likely retest $76,000 next.

#9月CPI来袭原油美债走势如何
#美国9月CPI升至3.7%

This CPI report was worse than expected

Inflation was expected to come in below forecasts, but September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, while core CPI also rebounded to 2.6%—both above market expectations.

More concerningly, aside from rising energy prices, core inflation showed no clear signs of cooling either.

After the data was released, $BTC and gold both fell, while the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields strengthened.

In the short term, I’m no longer in a hurry to call a market rebound, but I don’t plan to chase shorts either.

For $BTC , the first level to watch is whether it can hold $82,000. For gold, it’s around $4,100. If neither level holds, the pullback may continue.

Tonight’s CPI came in hotter than expected

I previously thought CPI might come in below expectations, but the actual data was hotter. September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, while core CPI rose 2.6%; both were above market expectations.

$BTC briefly fell below $83,000, and gold also dropped to around $4,100. Market expectations for an October rate hike have risen noticeably.

Still, I’m in no rush to turn bearish for now. BTC already went through a decline a few days ago, and what I’d rather see now is whether it can climb back above $84,000.

If it continues to break below $82,000, I’ll need to reassess the short-term risks.

September CPI is due tonight
The Fed may still need to keep raising rates!

At 8:30 p.m. tonight, the U.S. will release its September CPI data.
The market currently expects September CPI to rise 3.6% year over year, up from 3.4% previously. Core CPI is expected to rise 2.5% year over year, also up from 2.4% previously.

Cleveland Fed President Hammack recently reiterated that the Fed still needs to raise rates further to bring inflation back to its 2% target.

Energy prices are the biggest concern right now. $CL Oil prices have remained high, which could cause headline inflation to accelerate again, while core inflation has not fully cooled either.

This CPI report is important for BTC, $XAUT gold, and U.S. stocks.
If the data comes in above expectations, the market may further increase its bets on a rate hike in December, putting more short-term pressure on risk assets.

But I don't plan to panic and short the market ahead of the data release. Rate-hike expectations have been repeatedly affecting the market lately. Tonight, besides watching the CPI reading itself, it's also important to see whether $BTC can hold the lows from the past few days.