夏木KRIS

$57,800
Perhaps this is the bottom of the current $BTC Bitcoin bear market

Looking back now, I’m increasingly convinced that around $57,800 may be the true bottom of this BTC bear market.
At the end of June, Bitcoin was driven down to about $57,800, setting a new 21-month low. At the time, the environment was actually very poor: the Fed was leaning hawkish, and ETF flows were continuing to bleed out. Just the withdrawals in June alone totaled tens of billions of dollars, and market sentiment had already been crushed into extreme pessimism.

But with so many bearish factors, BTC still didn’t keep collapsing.
Now Bitcoin has rebounded all the way from $57,800. Today, it even briefly broke above $79,000—an upside rally of more than 36% from the lows. At the same time, ETF capital has started flowing back in again, and regulatory expectations are beginning to turn more favorable.

So now I’m going to start treating $57,800 as a very important level.

The bottom of a bear market is often something that falls out—only after some time do people realize: the lowest point was already behind us long ago.

Dual Anchor Currency Era: Why Only Gold and Bitcoin Will Survive in the End

I increasingly feel that we are heading towards a strange yet inevitable future. The world is forming two distinctly different trust systems: one based on 'material', gold; the other supported by 'algorithms', Bitcoin.

China continues to increase its gold reserves, this action seems more like preparing a defense in advance. Gold does not depend on any country, nor does it require third-party guarantees; its value comes from the accumulation of time and the common trust of humanity. Meanwhile, the United States is promoting the institutionalization of cryptocurrencies, with frequent interactions between capital and regulatory bodies, and financial giants are all making plans. They are trying to make digital currency the core tool of the new financial system, using new rules to consolidate dominance.

When one country hoards physical assets and another builds computational power infrastructure, the world's monetary order has begun to loosen. The dollar once represented global credit, but now with rising debts, excessive currency issuance, and diminishing trust, the system itself is beginning to show signs of fatigue.

The currency of the future may be underground or in the cloud. Gold remains the most solid store of value in the real world, while Bitcoin is gradually gaining a similar status in the digital realm. One embodies stability and tradition, while the other symbolizes openness and innovation.

I often think that gold connects to the civilizations of the past, while Bitcoin leads to the order of the future. As the credit system of the dollar gradually collapses, humanity is searching for a new anchor point of 'trust'; these two assets may become new pivot points.

This transformation is not a distant fantasy, but a migration that is quietly happening. We are moving from national credit to consensus credit, from printing presses to computational power and time. Yet most people have not realized that they are already standing at the historical watershed.

$BTC
$PAXG

$SOL Suddenly sees a major positive development
Future liquidity will directly accelerate in its reduction

I think the SIMD-0411 that Solana passed this time is good news for people who plan to hold SOL long term.

The core of this proposal is very simple: it accelerates the rate at which SOL inflation declines. Previously, Solana’s annual inflation rate would decrease at a rate of about 15%; now it’s increased to 30%. That means the SOL newly entering the market will be reduced more quickly.

Based on current progress, SOL’s inflation rate is around 3.87%. The new mechanism is expected to bring it down faster to the long-term target of 1.5%.

This change won’t make SOL suddenly surge in the short term, but the long-term logic is easy to understand:

The network keeps growing, while the amount of new tokens keeps getting smaller.

Plus, recently, SOL ETF fund inflows have started to become clearly noticeable. I think this Solana cycle is not just about a price rebound— the overall logic on the supply side is gradually improving too.

#Solana通胀缩减提案获投票通过

$ETH Now the biggest advantage
is that the money of $BTC has truly started coming in

BTC has recently fallen back below $80,000, but ETH’s fund performance is clearly stronger.

Over the past week, US spot BTC ETFs saw net inflows of about $924 million; over the same period, ETH ETFs pulled in roughly $824 million. Given that ETH’s market cap is far smaller than BTC’s, this amount of capital is actually extremely staggering.

Moreover, ETH ETFs have been experiencing net inflows for 10 consecutive trading days. Even on the day BTC had a single-day net outflow of $202 million, ETH still saw net inflows of about $102 million.

This is why I’m paying increasing attention to ETH right now.

Capital hasn’t fully left the crypto market—it’s simply being redistributed between BTC and ETH.

What ETH truly needs to address now is $2,500.

As long as this level can truly hold, I think the next leg can begin with a serious look at the $2,800 to $3,000 range.

#比特币守稳78000美元上方 #比特币8月上涨23%跑赢黄金股市 #

Gold plunges from 4700 to 4450
I actually feel this pullback is important

After pushing up toward the 4700 area at the beginning, these past two days finally brought a fairly noticeable round of correction.

Today, spot gold is around $4455. Even last Friday, it fell more than 3% in a single day. The main reason is that Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole was somewhat hawkish, and market expectations for a September rate hike have heated up again.

But interestingly, even after this round of sharp sell-off, gold is still up more than 10% overall in August—still the strongest month since January this year.

So I won’t assume the market is over just because gold has dropped back to 4450.

The move up from 4700 happened too fast in the first place, and it was necessary to flush out the chasing funds.

If it can stabilize again around the 4350 area, I would start paying attention to the next opportunity.

The long-term logic for gold has not disappeared just because of a two-day pullback.

$BTC $XAU $XAUT

Crude oil suddenly surges back above $90
Middle East risks are back again

A few days ago, the market was still trading the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for navigation—then the situation changed again over the weekend.

The U.S. once again attacked an Iranian target near the Strait of Hormuz. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated again. Today, Brent crude rose by more than 3% at one point, breaking back above $90, while WTI also returned to around $85.

This is exactly why I felt earlier that you shouldn’t be too quick to turn bearish on crude oil.

The Strait of Hormuz accounts for about 20% of global oil transport. As long as there isn’t genuine stability restored here, there will always be a layer of war premium embedded in oil prices.

So the most troublesome part for crude oil right now is that news can move the price in a single direction day by day.

If negotiations make progress, it falls. If military conflict escalates, it jumps up immediately.

After crude oil manages to stand back above $90, we have to keep a close watch again on the Middle East line.

$CL $BTC

$ZEC This round’s most important thing isn’t that it’s rising to 800.

It’s that Wall Street can finally buy.

Before, ZEC surged from below $600 all the way to nearly $880, followed by a pullback of about 10%. But I think what truly changes the valuation logic for this round is, in fact, the official launch of ZCSH.

Grayscale’s Zcash ETF has already started trading on NYSE Arca. It currently holds about 393,000 ZEC at the highest point, worth over $260 million.

One of the biggest limitations of privacy coins used to be that traditional capital couldn’t easily participate directly.

Now that entry has been opened.

For the short term, ZEC will still likely keep shaking out. Especially since the open interest in the futures market once approached $1.8 billion, meaning leverage isn’t low.

But as long as this pullback doesn’t break the trend, my view hasn’t changed.

First, break back above 880, then look at 1000. I’m still ultimately waiting for $1,100.

$BTC

Bitcoin surged 24% in August,
but in September I’ll actually start being more cautious.

$BTC was extremely strong in August—rising all the way from around $60,000 to break through $80,000. The monthly gain is about 24%, making it the best-performing month so far this year.

But entering September, I’ll start paying closer attention to risks.
Right now, BTC is back around $78,500. Meanwhile, exchange BTC balances are starting to increase. On Binance, BTC reserves have risen to about 687,000 coins, the highest this year. ETFs also ended their streak of nine consecutive days of net inflows on August 28.

However, last week overall ETFs still saw net inflows of about $924 million, so it’s still not time to turn bearish directly.

My view is very simple:
If we reclaim $80,000, I’ll keep looking long. If capital keeps flowing out and price breaks below a key support level, I’ll first reduce my position size a bit.

In the first week of September, it matters far more than just guessing up or down.

$BTC

$SOL ends 10 consecutive months of declines

$SOL was actually very strong in August.

In the whole of August, it rose by about 46% cumulatively. It finally ended 10 consecutive months of monthly closes in the red, and at one point surged above $110, reaching the highest level since the end of January.

More importantly, this move isn’t just retail investors playing the market.

In the past week, US SOL spot ETFs saw net inflows of about $153 million, the best week since they were launched. Total assets under management have now nearly reached $1.5 billion.

So right now, my feeling about SOL is completely different.

Before, it had been falling for almost a year with nobody daring to touch it. Now, the price is starting to reverse, and institutional capital is coming in at the same time.

If BTC can hold steady from here, I think SOL is very likely to become one of the most elastic coins among the large-cap altcoins in this cycle.

$BTC

Send a small red packet to everyone here
Wishing you happiness every day, smooth investing, and a consistently red account 🧧

👇

币安聊天群

In the group, everyone can chat freely and exchange ideas~ When I have time, I’ll come back to take a look, help answer some questions, and occasionally share some targets I personally think are relatively promising. Let’s discuss and reference together 🤝

Brother Sun's recent situation is a bit risky.
I’ll short $TRX with a small position first.

The public opinion turmoil around Justin Sun has been growing bigger lately. I think for the short term we should pay attention to the sentiment risk of $TRX .

In the past few days, related controversies have continued to intensify, and TRX itself is also around a relatively high level near $0.34. Once the market starts pricing in negative sentiment, this kind of coin that is highly tied to the founder often reacts earlier to price than the fundamentals.

Of course, at the moment I haven’t seen a clear deterioration in TRON’s fundamentals. Even the TRX ETF is still moving forward, so this isn’t a long-term bearish logic on TRX.

I just feel that the risk-reward ratio at this level is starting to tilt toward the bears.

So I’ll short a bit of $TRX with a small position for now. The trade is purely about the short-term sentiment caused by this wave of events continuing to escalate.

If things calm down quickly, I’ll withdraw directly as well.

Bitcoin has recently been something to take note of
ETF funds start showing net outflows

$BTC In this cycle, it has risen from around $60,000 all the way to $80,000. One of the biggest supports along the way has been the continued inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs.

But the latest data shows changes.

On August 28, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded a daily net outflow of about $202 million, directly ending the prior streak of 9 consecutive trading days and a cumulative net inflow of more than $3 billion.

Among them, ARK’s ARKB saw outflows of about $115 million, Bitwise’s BITB saw outflows of about $49.7 million, and even BlackRock’s IBIT saw outflows of about $33.4 million.

So lately, I’ll be a bit more cautious about BTC.

A single day of outflows can’t directly indicate a trend reversal, because over the past five trading days overall there was still a net inflow of about $925 million, and the capital position in August is also positive.

What really needs attention is whether net outflows will continue going forward.

If it’s only one day, I’m more inclined to think it’s profit-taking. But if funds keep withdrawing for several days and BTC can’t reclaim $80,000, then any short-term pullback may not be over yet.

$BTC

$BTC broke below 80,000
But this time I’m actually more focused on
Whether it can quickly bounce back

After Jackson Hole, BTC once dropped to around $77,500. It has now returned to about $78,000. The market is mainly digesting the more hawkish signals from the Fed, as well as a cooling of risk assets in the short term.

More importantly, the BTC ETFs that had seen consecutive inflows have started to show about $200 million in net outflows in a single day.

But I don’t think we should turn bearish just because it broke below 80,000.

This rebound in BTC from the lows has already exceeded 20%. Earlier, a lot of short positions were liquidated. Now, a normal pullback can actually be used to test the true spot demand.

Next, the most important thing is whether 80,000 can be recovered quickly.

If it climbs back above that level again, I’d be more inclined to interpret this decline as a high-level shakeout, and then I’d still look for 83,000 to 84,000 afterward.

$BTC #比特币现货ETF结束9日净流入

It's September already

Please cherish your time

The Shortcut King Sun Yuchen Is Now 36 Years Old

Leaving aside what he has now and what he plans to do, in the end all he needs to do is improve his appearance and poise. Then he can get the best physical feel the whole world has to offer.

In my view, Brother Sun has already taken the “shortcut” all the way to the ceiling:

He understands the hot spot, capital, narrative, and exposure—how to use the shortest path to yield the biggest returns.

At this stage, the project and money are no longer the key variables. What can further magnify his advantage by another level is upgrading his external looks and presence: better face-management, a more decisive figure, more restrained poise, a firmer expression, and a more controlled speaking pace.

Because what the public worships is never just profit—it’s also whether he “looks like a king.”

When a person has wealth and dignity, ambition and aesthetics, sharpness and composure all at once, the pressure they bring turns into attraction. Controversies get diluted by their aura, and even suspicions become harder to substantiate.

$TRX $BTC $SUN

Today I’m specifically picking three
I think you can pay attention to the following knockoffs

$ROBO 、$HOME 、$PENGU
Exactly three completely different directions.

$ROBO is currently around $0.0134, with a market cap of about $30 million. I think it’s mainly along the AI robot track; Fabric Protocol is doing things like robots, AI agents, and on-chain payments. The key point is that these knockoffs have already risen in a round recently—it hasn’t really moved much instead.

$HOME is currently around $0.0064. I bought this earlier. What’s interesting is that the protocol uses 80% of its revenue to buy back HOME every week, and since the price has now returned to the bottom range again, I still think there’s room for a catch-up rally.

$PENGU is currently around $0.0098. In the past 7 days it’s already risen by more than 60%. Pudgy Penguins itself has an IP, physical retail, and recent IPO expectations—if the meme sector keeps running, it’s one I’m relatively optimistic about.

One AI robot, one low-market-cap DeFi, and one meme IP—those three are the ones I specifically singled out to keep an eye on recently.

Ushtech is a good company,
but I really don’t recommend chasing this stock price right now.

I’ve actually been quite optimistic about Ushtech long term, and robotics will definitely be one of the most important technology themes in the next few years.

But just because a company is good doesn’t mean any price is worth buying.

Ushtech’s issue price was only 150.8 yuan. On its first day after listing, it surged directly to 1,100 yuan, a gain of over 600%, and its market cap reached more than 440 billion yuan at one point. Even though it has already fallen sharply from the peak, in just a few trading days the stock price has dropped by about 45%.

The most outrageous part is the valuation.

Based on the issue price, the 2025 price-to-sales ratio was already 35.89x, higher than the average 19.74x of comparable companies at the time. After the stock exploded higher on listing, Reuters even calculated that it traded at roughly 857x projected earnings for 2026 at one point.

Ushtech’s growth is of course very fast—2025 revenue was 1.699 billion yuan and net profit was 278 million yuan—and I recognize that.

But if you buy Ushtech now, I think you’re mostly buying the market’s crazy expectations for humanoid robots.

I’ll keep an eye on this company long term, but I won’t chase the stock now. No matter how good the track is, if the price is too expensive, you still have to wait.

$UNITREE #宇树科技上市首日涨629% $ROBO.ETF

SpaceX slips back near its IPO
I still think the valuation is expensive

SpaceX has recently fallen back to around $137, and it’s now very close to the $135 IPO price.

But even after the drop, I still don’t think it’s cheap.

Based on the current share price, the equity value of SpaceX is still close to $1.86 trillion. At the same time, on August 20, about 319 million shares entered a state where they can be sold, and more lock-up periods will continue to expire through 2027.

The company’s growth is indeed extremely strong—its Q2 revenue hit $7.8 billion, nearly doubling year over year, but capital expenditures were as high as $18.4 billion.

So the biggest issue for SpaceX right now has never been whether the company is good.

Of course the company is great; the problem is that the market has already priced in a lot of the growth for many years ahead.

From $225 down to $137, I still don’t think the valuation is cheap. If you really want me to start feeling it’s good value, I’ll keep waiting.

$SPCX $SPCXB

The US hits Iran hard, but crude oil actually falls

This time, the US has launched a new round of economic pressure on Iran. Nearly 60 Iran-related entities have been sanctioned, and it has even warned that countries and companies continuing to do business with Iran may be cut off from the dollar system.

Normally, when news like this comes out, oil prices should rise.

Instead, WTI fell by 2.4% to around $85, and Brent also dropped to around $92.

I think what the market is pricing right now is quite interesting.

People may be starting to believe that, as the US shifts from military pressure to broader economic sanctions, it could actually increase the chances of renewed talks and a cooling of the situation afterward. So some of the geopolitical risk premium is being unwound first.

Iran risk hasn’t disappeared, but oil prices are becoming less sensitive to bearish news. This change is worth watching.

$CL $XAU $BTC