The cold winter has arrived, are you ready? — The psychological limit of $65,000 and the lifeline
The realized price (Realized Price, RP) calculation is based on the last price when it was moved on-chain, so it is also considered the average cost basis of Bitcoin across the entire chain. However, in reality, this value has a certain degree of distortion.
Due to a large number of ancient coins either being long-term held or lost, it has severely lowered the 'average cost' we observe.
Currently, the number of BTC held for over 10 years is 3,443,000, with an average cost basis of only $106.7 (Figures 1 and 2). Although the average cost for those held for over 5-7 years is also quite low, it is clearly closer to the 'true' value in comparison.
Jiang Zhuoer said that their understanding of the cryptocurrency world is still stuck in the past decade.
姓赵不宣
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BlackRock enters the DeFi market and starts purchasing $UNI tokens, and it is very likely to acquire other blue-chip tokens in the future.
In addition, there is some cooperation information behind it; BlackRock announced that it will launch BUIDL on Uniswap, allowing institutional traders to buy and sell on Uniswap, of course with whitelist restrictions in place.
This move signifies that institutions are starting to actively trust and test DeFi infrastructure, and if successful, the future potential is enormous.
On January 27, 2023, I wrote a tweet — the never-failing on-chain data indicators, hoping to explain the established $BTC bear bottom pattern from multiple angles. Looking back now, although the textual descriptions and pattern annotations seem a bit rough and immature, the content described in the text is still valid to this day. For example: [Never-Failing] On-Chain Data Indicator Five: CVDD; its principle has been introduced on many data platforms, so I won't elaborate here (interested friends can check it out themselves).
Its biggest feature is that it 'never retraces', meaning today's CVDD is always higher than yesterday's. From 2010 to 2026, the price of BTC has been above CVDD every single day; it may come infinitely close at the bear market bottom but has never dropped below. Including in November 2022 $BTC the lowest was $15,800, while at that time CVDD was $14,800.
$BTC {future}(BTCUSDT) $SOL 2026's plan is very simple: January: Chip accumulation February: Bull market starts March: Bitcoin reaches an all-time high (ATH) April: Bull trap May: Market crash Save it and come back to verify later