Mohamed A. El-Erian Re-poster

It was a pleasure speaking with Andrew and Becky earlier today on CNBC's Squawk Box. I really appreciated the invitation to be a guest on the program and found our discussion to be highly engaging. You can access the video of our morning interview through the web address provided below.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/09/08/mohamed-el-erian-i-would-argue-for-no-hike-if-i-were-on-the-fomc.html

#economy #markets @cnbc @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @SquawkCNBC

Even as trade protectionism increases across the globe, China is currently on pace to establish a brand new yearly high for its trade surplus. After recording a $119 billion surplus this August, the country is positioned to surpass the staggering $1.2 trillion milestone reached last year. The fundamental expansion behind these figures is equally remarkable, highlighted by a 25% surge in exports alongside a 28% increase in imports.

#economy #china #markets #trade

As borrowing expenses across advanced economies continue to capture widespread attention, there are a couple of key developments worth following.

First, the UK government reached a historic milestone during its bond issuance today. On a total issuance of £4.25 billion, they paid a yield of 5.82%. According to the Debt Management Office, this represents the highest yield they have ever recorded.

Additionally, Amazon is currently introducing its own debt sterling bond offering. This move perfectly illustrates how US tech giants are increasingly diversifying their financial reach into international bond markets.

#economy #markets #bonds #uk @amazon

Hello and good morning! We are tracking a few significant shifts across the financial landscape early today. Based on the CNBC charts featured below, the price of Brent crude is currently nearing the $100 per barrel mark. Meanwhile, in the government debt space, the 10-year US Treasury yield sits at 4.80%, and the 30-year yield has reached 5.27%.

#economy #markets #oil #bonds #yields

Unless there is a sudden breakthrough at the final hour, Canada is moving forward tomorrow with plans to place retaliatory tariffs on a specific group of US imports. These new duties will fall anywhere from 15% to 50%. The US administration has cautioned that this action would provoke an escalating response, warning of additional tariffs and the possibility of complete bans on certain Canadian exports.

#economy #markets #canada #trade #tariffs #tradewar

During his inaugural major address today, UK Chancellor John Healey shared a distinctly optimistic perspective, declaring his ambition to transition Great Britain into Growth Britain.

By widening his economic approach, he plans to reduce operational expenses for companies and stimulate local funding, placing a specific emphasis on the North. At the same time, he remains steadfast in upholding the rigorous financial restraint championed by Rachel Reeves. To illustrate the stark reality of current national obligations, he presented a compelling comparison. He observed that if debt interest functioned as a singular Whitehall department, its expenditures would easily surpass the combined budgets of Defense, the Home Office, and Justice.

Looking ahead, the genuine challenge lies in cementing these ideas into long lasting policies. This transition must be achieved before escalating borrowing expenses place additional strain on public finances and overall economic expansion.

#economy #markets #growth #UK

During the second quarter, economic expansion within the Eurozone achieved its quickest quarterly rate in more than a year. A significant upward adjustment from Ireland helped push the region's GDP growth to 0.6%, comfortably surpassing the initial estimate of 0.4%.

These strong gains out of Ireland were somewhat offset by more sluggish economic growth in France. Right now, France is drawing considerable fiscal scrutiny, an environment it shares with fellow G7 nations Japan and the UK.

Please refer to the Bloomberg charts provided below for further details.

#economy #growth #europe #eurozone #markets

Good morning.

The yen climbed by an additional 1% today, reaching an exchange rate of 154 per US dollar. While this market movement is straightforward to observe, the actual catalyst behind it remains a complete mystery. This unexpected shift has left traders and analysts largely divided and quite perplexed as they struggle to identify the exact forces propelling the currency upward. For a visual representation of this trend, please refer to the provided Bloomberg chart.

#economy #markets #yen #fx #lapan #currency

Just offering my perspective on the current situation, which is perfectly illustrated by the chart below from The Economist. We are likely to see the ECB implement an interest rate increase this week. Moving into next week, expectations point toward the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan making similar moves to raise their rates. Because of these anticipated actions, I believe the Fed will ultimately stand out as the singular major central bank that chooses to pause on hiking rates throughout September.

#economy #centralbanks #markets @TheEconomist

The charts provided here draw their data from a New York Fed paper titled "Are Central Banks Moving Out of Dollar Assets?" While the research highlights a noticeable decline in the global share of the dollar within official foreign reserves, dropping from 64% in 2015 to 56% in 2025, it also clarifies the root cause of this trend. The study determines that the decrease does not signal a systemic, worldwide movement away from dollar assets. Instead, it is primarily the result of specific financial maneuvers by a small group of significant reserve holders. As the current year comes to a close, it will be quite fascinating to monitor any further developments regarding both the overall magnitude and the precise composition of these reserves.

#economy #markets #dollar #centralbanks @NewYorkFed

Take a moment to check out the newest front cover released by The Economist for the current week.

@TheEconomist #tech #nvidia @nvidia

We are currently navigating a highly fascinating environment across financial markets and the broader economy, which is the main topic of my most recent weekly update. You can access the full commentary through either of the links provided at the bottom of this post.

The current landscape features robust US economic data and notable shifts in yields, standing in sharp contrast to the political pressure being directed at the Fed. Furthermore, the discussion touches on broader fluctuations in sovereign bond yields and recent currency movements. Moving forward, attention will shift toward the upcoming US inflation reports, specifically the CPI/PPI, along with the beginning of a compelling series of policy decisions from various central banks.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-rabxe/
https://mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-1d7
#economy #markets

The most recent employment data out of the US has delivered a pleasant surprise, revealing considerably more strength than anticipated across both the supply and demand aspects of the workforce.

To break down the details, job creation saw a substantial boost. Nonfarm payrolls leaped to 162,000, coming off an upwardly revised figure of 21,000. This impressive jump is roughly three times what the consensus forecast had projected.

We also saw positive news regarding workforce availability. Surpassing expectations, the labor force participation rate climbed from 61.4% to 61.6%. This upward movement brings the metric to its strongest level in almost a full year.

Turning to other vital statistics, the overall unemployment rate stayed perfectly steady at 4.1%. Meanwhile, workers saw their average hourly earnings increase by 0.3% on a month-over-month basis, landing exactly in line with expectations.

Taking all these data points into account, the conclusion is quite clear. The US labor market continues to be highly robust, characterized by resolute employer demand and steady stabilization on the supply end.

#economy #jobs #earnings #employment #unemployment

I previously shared my perspectives on the upcoming effects of artificial intelligence on capital markets. As we witness an escalation in both internal and external competing forces, I explore how this push and pull will shape the financial landscape. You can access the full discussion through the link below.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-bumpy-road-ahead-borrowing-costs-public-resistance-shallow-adoption-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2026-09

#economy #markets #ai @ProSyn

A standout detail from the most recent AAA statistics regarding US gas, or petrol, prices is certainly worth your attention. The nationwide average cost for a gallon of diesel has officially climbed to an unprecedented record of $5.85.

#economy #markets #fuel #petrol #diesel @AAA_Travel

A recent Bloomberg chart illustrates the dramatic growth of the trade surplus in China, bringing three key observations to light.

To begin with, this surplus is expanding noticeably even as international trade barriers continue to increase. Furthermore, the figures are striking. After hitting almost $700 bn by the end of July, expectations point toward the full year surplus easily surpassing the record $1.2 tr established last year.

Lastly, the broader narrative extends well beyond the discussion of Chinese EVs in Europe. With an unmatched ability to produce goods across every stage of the value chain, China is steadily wearing away the traditional development escalator that growing developing economies have historically followed to build their own wealth.

#economy #markets #china #development #trade

Today marks another Jobs Friday in the US, and anticipation is high for the widely tracked monthly employment report. Current projections for August point to job gains of 53,000, bouncing back from a decline of 23,000 experienced during July.

The upcoming data is also expected to show that the unemployment rate has held steady at 4.1%. Furthermore, analysts anticipate a slight increase in the labor force participation rate, shifting from 61.4% up to 61.5%. Alongside these figures, average earnings growth is forecasted to see a monthly increase of 0.3%.

When reviewing the specific data points, my primary attention will stay on the indicators tied to the supply side of the labor market. I will be sharing more information shortly.

#economy #markets #jobs #unemployment #wages

Wishing you a very good morning. Should the details of this FT report be verified, it would bring yet another name to the growing roster of historically dependable purchasers of US Treasuries who are stepping back from their conventional roles. This shifting landscape already features China, whose actions are driven by geopolitics, as well as Japan and the GCC economies, which are altering their purchasing approaches due to their own domestic funding demands.

#economy #markets

Discover what the future holds for the influence of artificial intelligence on capital markets. This piece explores the upcoming landscape as competing pressures continue to escalate from both within and outside the industry.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-bumpy-road-ahead-borrowing-costs-public-resistance-shallow-adoption-by-mohamed-a-el-erian-2026-09

#economy #markets #ai @ProSyn

Exceeding market forecasts by a noticeable margin, the recent US ISM Services report showcased a remarkably impressive overall performance. We observed vigorous growth across almost every price and activity subcomponent, leaving employment as the single outlier in an otherwise upward trend. Digging into the specifics, the prices paid metric surged to a four-year peak. Meanwhile, volume for incoming new orders advanced to a level not seen in more than three years, which helped push general business activity up to a solid six-month high.

#economy #markets