Mohamed A. El-Erian Re-poster

To borrow a classic exclamation from the people of France, Sacré bleu.

When reviewing this particular graph from the Financial Times, one outcome appears almost guaranteed. We can expect the data columns shown here to continue their upward climb.

#economy #markets #debt @FT

As I noted in an earlier column, the true focal point for the economy and financial markets should be the new chair of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh. The crucial issue is his ability to successfully revamp the operations of the Fed in order to minimize the danger of repeating the policy slippages experienced in recent years.

Pointing toward such institutional shifts, media sources indicate there is rising internal support to modify the FOMC schedule. This proposed adjustment would lower the amount of standard rate-setting meetings from eight to six, making room to host two dedicated strategy discussions instead.

Even with these major structural changes on the horizon, it is completely understandable that market watchers are currently fixated on the immediate actions of the world's most powerful central bank. The pressing debate is whether we will see a rate hike next week, and if so, whether it will act as a "one and done" move or kick off an entirely new cycle.

#economy #federalreserve #markets

Keeping the focus on government bond yields, the results from the latest auction are quite noteworthy. Even though there was robust demand from buyers, the US Treasury issued its new debt paying a rate of 4.834%. We have not experienced an issuance rate this high in nearly twenty years, going all the way back to August 2007.

#economy #markets #bonds #yields

As highlighted in the latest coverage from CNBC, markets have initially responded to the recent Treasury announcement by driving yields upward. The 10-year note saw a daily increase of 5 bps and is currently trading at 4.845%. Simultaneously, the 30-year bond climbed by 6 bps to hit a level of 5.302%.

#economy #markets @CNBC #bonds #yields

Even though oil seems to be getting all the attention lately, the widespread surge in raw material prices tells a much bigger story. Fueled by significant market shifts such as copper reaching new all-time highs, the Bloomberg Commodity Index has climbed to values we have not witnessed in more than ten years. Please refer to the graphs provided below for a closer look at these movements.

#economy #markets #copper #Oil #commodities

A New Stance on the Japanese Yen and Treasury Buybacks

Leading up to a major financial update today, Secretary Scott Bessent issued a confident challenge to traders regarding the Japanese yen, an asset that has experienced recent market intervention. He openly dared these individuals to test his determination on the currency. Highlighting that he possesses superior insights and information compared to typical market participants, he boldly declared, "I am the house now."

Alongside this firm position on the yen, the US Treasury is scheduled to announce the precise size of its expanded buyback program today. This strategy is deliberately designed to bring calm to the bond market. According to the Secretary, the initiative will help soothe the sector and cool what he previously described as a "fever that was building."

#economy #markets #bonds #debt #buyback #yen #intervention

The leading story dominating media coverage this morning is Brent crude pushing past the $100 mark. This development brings a lengthy list of issues into sharper focus, most notably the social, political, and economic consequences tied to high United States gas, or petrol, prices. Unsurprisingly, yields have also climbed higher this morning. The referenced charts are sourced from CNBC and the AAA.

#economy #trade #oil #energy #markets

It was a pleasure speaking with Andrew and Becky earlier today on CNBC's Squawk Box. I really appreciated the invitation to be a guest on the program and found our discussion to be highly engaging. You can access the video of our morning interview through the web address provided below.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/09/08/mohamed-el-erian-i-would-argue-for-no-hike-if-i-were-on-the-fomc.html

#economy #markets @cnbc @andrewrsorkin @BeckyQuick @SquawkCNBC

Even as trade protectionism increases across the globe, China is currently on pace to establish a brand new yearly high for its trade surplus. After recording a $119 billion surplus this August, the country is positioned to surpass the staggering $1.2 trillion milestone reached last year. The fundamental expansion behind these figures is equally remarkable, highlighted by a 25% surge in exports alongside a 28% increase in imports.

#economy #china #markets #trade

As borrowing expenses across advanced economies continue to capture widespread attention, there are a couple of key developments worth following.

First, the UK government reached a historic milestone during its bond issuance today. On a total issuance of £4.25 billion, they paid a yield of 5.82%. According to the Debt Management Office, this represents the highest yield they have ever recorded.

Additionally, Amazon is currently introducing its own debt sterling bond offering. This move perfectly illustrates how US tech giants are increasingly diversifying their financial reach into international bond markets.

#economy #markets #bonds #uk @amazon

Hello and good morning! We are tracking a few significant shifts across the financial landscape early today. Based on the CNBC charts featured below, the price of Brent crude is currently nearing the $100 per barrel mark. Meanwhile, in the government debt space, the 10-year US Treasury yield sits at 4.80%, and the 30-year yield has reached 5.27%.

#economy #markets #oil #bonds #yields

Unless there is a sudden breakthrough at the final hour, Canada is moving forward tomorrow with plans to place retaliatory tariffs on a specific group of US imports. These new duties will fall anywhere from 15% to 50%. The US administration has cautioned that this action would provoke an escalating response, warning of additional tariffs and the possibility of complete bans on certain Canadian exports.

#economy #markets #canada #trade #tariffs #tradewar

During his inaugural major address today, UK Chancellor John Healey shared a distinctly optimistic perspective, declaring his ambition to transition Great Britain into Growth Britain.

By widening his economic approach, he plans to reduce operational expenses for companies and stimulate local funding, placing a specific emphasis on the North. At the same time, he remains steadfast in upholding the rigorous financial restraint championed by Rachel Reeves. To illustrate the stark reality of current national obligations, he presented a compelling comparison. He observed that if debt interest functioned as a singular Whitehall department, its expenditures would easily surpass the combined budgets of Defense, the Home Office, and Justice.

Looking ahead, the genuine challenge lies in cementing these ideas into long lasting policies. This transition must be achieved before escalating borrowing expenses place additional strain on public finances and overall economic expansion.

#economy #markets #growth #UK

During the second quarter, economic expansion within the Eurozone achieved its quickest quarterly rate in more than a year. A significant upward adjustment from Ireland helped push the region's GDP growth to 0.6%, comfortably surpassing the initial estimate of 0.4%.

These strong gains out of Ireland were somewhat offset by more sluggish economic growth in France. Right now, France is drawing considerable fiscal scrutiny, an environment it shares with fellow G7 nations Japan and the UK.

Please refer to the Bloomberg charts provided below for further details.

#economy #growth #europe #eurozone #markets

Good morning.

The yen climbed by an additional 1% today, reaching an exchange rate of 154 per US dollar. While this market movement is straightforward to observe, the actual catalyst behind it remains a complete mystery. This unexpected shift has left traders and analysts largely divided and quite perplexed as they struggle to identify the exact forces propelling the currency upward. For a visual representation of this trend, please refer to the provided Bloomberg chart.

#economy #markets #yen #fx #lapan #currency

Just offering my perspective on the current situation, which is perfectly illustrated by the chart below from The Economist. We are likely to see the ECB implement an interest rate increase this week. Moving into next week, expectations point toward the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan making similar moves to raise their rates. Because of these anticipated actions, I believe the Fed will ultimately stand out as the singular major central bank that chooses to pause on hiking rates throughout September.

#economy #centralbanks #markets @TheEconomist

The charts provided here draw their data from a New York Fed paper titled "Are Central Banks Moving Out of Dollar Assets?" While the research highlights a noticeable decline in the global share of the dollar within official foreign reserves, dropping from 64% in 2015 to 56% in 2025, it also clarifies the root cause of this trend. The study determines that the decrease does not signal a systemic, worldwide movement away from dollar assets. Instead, it is primarily the result of specific financial maneuvers by a small group of significant reserve holders. As the current year comes to a close, it will be quite fascinating to monitor any further developments regarding both the overall magnitude and the precise composition of these reserves.

#economy #markets #dollar #centralbanks @NewYorkFed

Take a moment to check out the newest front cover released by The Economist for the current week.

@TheEconomist #tech #nvidia @nvidia

We are currently navigating a highly fascinating environment across financial markets and the broader economy, which is the main topic of my most recent weekly update. You can access the full commentary through either of the links provided at the bottom of this post.

The current landscape features robust US economic data and notable shifts in yields, standing in sharp contrast to the political pressure being directed at the Fed. Furthermore, the discussion touches on broader fluctuations in sovereign bond yields and recent currency movements. Moving forward, attention will shift toward the upcoming US inflation reports, specifically the CPI/PPI, along with the beginning of a compelling series of policy decisions from various central banks.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/weekly-look-global-economy-markets-mohamed-el-erian-rabxe/
https://mohamedelerian.substack.com/p/the-weekly-look-at-the-global-economy-1d7
#economy #markets