免力

Bitcoin has been trading between 80.5k and 81.7k for the past 6 hours, with less than 1.5% volatility.
U.S. PPI is out tonight at 8:30.
When CPI came in at 3.7% the day before yesterday, the price candle plunged straight down.
It's at 81k now, with the daily EMA50 at 80.3k below. Once the data comes out, this is basically the line to watch.

$SOL hit a low of 100.6 today, just barely avoiding a drop below 100.
It's now at 103, down 3.7% over 24 hours.
It fell along with Bitcoin during that wick, but held the key 100 level today.

The $ZK mentioned at noon went from +15% back to +7.7% in a little over two hours. 0.0171
WAL also dropped from +33% to +13%.
That’s about how quickly a rally without news to support it gives back its gains.

Taking a look at the charts this afternoon $BTC 81k

On the 4h chart, price has already fallen below the EMA20, EMA50, and EMA200. The 82.5k–83.1k area has turned into resistance overhead.
RSI is at 34, and the MACD bars are still growing downward. The short-term momentum remains bearish.
The daily EMA50 is at 80.3k, almost exactly where today's wick touched 80.2k. This is currently the most important level.
If the daily candle closes below 80.3k, the next area to watch is the previous 75k–77k range.

$ETH is much weaker, at 2364.
The 4h RSI is at 27, already oversold, but the daily chart has also broken below the EMA50, at 2493.
The daily EMA200 is at 2287, close to today's low of 2318.
For an ETH rebound, first watch 2470–2490. If price can't reclaim that range, it'll still just be a bearish bounce.

Before the PPI announcement tonight, price will probably chop around between 80.3k and 82.5k.

Just my personal opinion; this is not investment advice.

#BTC #ETH

The broader market is all red today, but a few coins are still moving on their own in the gainers list.
WAL +33%, NIL +12% — I mentioned these two this morning, and they’re both still holding their gains.
A new one is $ZK +15%, at 0.0183, with daily volume of around 13 million U. Haven’t seen any clear news yet.

On the downside, EPIC is still down 26%.
BTC at 81.2k, ETH at 2,365. In this kind of market, small caps usually take turns pumping, so chasing ones without any news carries more risk.

Bitcoin bounced back from that wick at 80.2k and is now at 81.6k. It’s recovered about half of this morning’s drop.
Perpetual futures funding rates have also flipped from negative to +0.001%; short positions aren’t increasing anymore.
ETH funding rates are still negative at -0.0015%. Price is 2384, not far from 2318.

$ETH is currently at 2367, down 5.8% over 24 hours.
Bitcoin is down about 2.8% over the same period, while ETH/BTC fell 2.8% in a day to 0.0292.

During that wick, ETH hit a low of 2318, a new low for the month.
Before the PPI release tonight, whether 2318 gets tested again is the key thing to watch.

81K finally got pierced—and with a wick.

In the past hour, $BTC plunged straight from 81,800 to 80,226, then bounced back to 81,200, leaving a lower wick of over a thousand dollars. This morning I said it had been consolidating around 81,600 over the past couple of days, and that a retest of 81K was bound to happen sooner or later. I didn’t expect it to happen before the PPI numbers even came out.

$ETH fared even worse, hitting a low of 2,318—its lowest in 30 days. It’s already down 5.7% in 24 hours, a lot weaker than Bitcoin. ETH has been the biggest loser ever since CPI day.

Moves like this are usually about flushing out leverage—taking out the stop-losses on the long positions stacked below 81K. The fact that it bounced back so quickly means there are still buyers around the low 80Ks, which is good news. But structurally, 81K is no longer clean support. If it gets tested again, that level will be less reliable.

PPI is out tonight at 20:30. At this price level, if the data comes in hot again, that wick at 80K may turn out to be more than just a wick. I’m not holding any positions; I’ll wait for the data and see.

#BTC #ETH

I checked the top gainers this morning. Besides WAL, which has already been talked to death, NIL has also quietly climbed a bit.

$NIL is now at 0.0857, up 10% in 24 hours. It briefly surged to 0.0937 yesterday. Volume was around $10 million—much more moderate than WAL’s explosive volume. It looks more like someone has been buying gradually rather than pushing the price up all at once.

That said, I’m more concerned about what happens next week. According to the unlock schedules from CoinGecko and Messari, NIL is due to have a batch of tokens unlocked around 10/24–10/25. The figures differ a bit between the two sources, but it’s roughly 19 million to 25 million tokens. At the current price, that’s about $1.7 million to $2.1 million. The amount isn’t huge, but for a coin with daily trading volume of only around $10 million, it could still be used as an excuse to sell around the unlock.

A common playbook is to pump the price before the unlock, making people think the bad news is already priced in, then dump on the day of the unlock. It won’t necessarily happen that way, but personally, I wouldn’t chase it at a high around a date like this.

Also, last November it had an incident where a former market maker sold tokens without authorization, causing the price to plunge 60% in a day. The project team later bought some back. If you’re holding it, just keep that in mind.

Bitcoin is still stuck around 81,600, and perpetual futures funding rates have edged further into negative territory. Shorts are getting more crowded, so things will probably keep grinding along like this until the PPI data comes out tonight.

#NIL #Altcoins

Woke up and checked BTC first. Turns out barely anything happened overnight—it just hovered between 81,440 and 81,980 all night. It’s at 81,750 now.

Last night I said whether 81K could hold was the key. At least it hasn’t been tested yet. But there hasn’t been any convincing rebound either: still down 2% over 24 hours. $ETH is a little weaker, at 2,425, down 3.3%. Overall, the market still hasn’t recovered from the CPI report.

WAL put on another show overnight, though. It was at 0.060 before bed, surged to a high of 0.0679 in the middle of the night, then slid all the way back to 0.059. Anyone who chased the high got stuck with a 13% loss in one night. Yesterday I said volume-driven rallies without a clear catalyst tend to come and go fast, and this time that proved true. It’s still up 50% over 24 hours, but I don’t know if it’ll make another run. I’m still staying away.

The real focus today is tonight. The US September PPI report comes out at 20:30 Taiwan time. CPI already came in hot, and if PPI is hot again, the case for a rate hike at the end of October will get stronger. In that case, it’ll probably be hard for BTC to avoid a test of 81K. If the data is mild, it could give BTC—under pressure these past couple of days—a chance to catch its breath.

I probably won’t make any moves during the day. I’ll see what happens after the data comes out tonight.

#BTC #PPI

I just said WAL was up 40% and that I’d watch but stay out. Then an hour later, it climbed even higher.

$WAL is now at 0.0605, up 57% in 24 hours, after hitting a high of 0.0620 today. Even more striking is the volume: spot trading volume over the past 24 hours is nearly $29 million, compared with roughly $2 million to $6 million a day last week. That means 5 to 10 times more money suddenly flowed in.

I looked around but couldn’t find any news that would explain this kind of rally. So far, all I’ve seen is a partnership with DATA Network, which doesn’t seem significant enough to justify a gain of over 50%. Rallies driven purely by volume, without clear positive catalysts, usually come and go quickly.

The 1-hour RSI is already around 80, so things are looking overheated in the short term. It’s climbed all the way from 0.038 with barely any meaningful consolidation along the way. If it turns back down, the 0.051 to 0.053 range is where some trading activity took place over the past few hours. Below that, there isn’t much support.

My view is still the same: with this kind of price action, the risk of chasing the rally is greater than the potential reward. If you’re trading it, remember to set a stop-loss.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin found support near 81,600 and is now back at 81,900. Funding rates for perpetual contracts have turned slightly negative, meaning short sellers are starting to pay. We’ll see later if it can bounce.

#WAL #Altcoins

Anyone still watching the charts at midnight probably felt this: after that CPI drop, Bitcoin never bounced back.

$BTC It's now at 81,650, down 2.2% over 24 hours. The move tonight was a slow grind lower, hour by hour—not a sudden crash. Honestly, this kind of price action feels worse than a flash wick.

$ETH is even weaker, down to 2,430, a 3.6% drop. SOL is also down more than 3%.

We're only a little over $600 from the previous low of 81,000. Price only managed to hold there yesterday. If it tests that level again tonight and holds, I'd say it's forming a double bottom. If it doesn't hold, the next meaningful level is probably around 80K.

A few altcoins are doing their own thing, though. WAL is up nearly 40% over 24 hours, with volume picking up too. But I usually just watch these countertrend surges rather than get involved.

PPI is due tomorrow night. If the data comes in hot again, 81K could be tested for a third time. I'm staying out for now and waiting to see what happens.

#BTC #Cryptocurrency$

🌙【Evening Briefing】10/14 U.S. CPI runs hot; crypto market pulls back in response

1️⃣ U.S. CPI rose 3.7% year over year in September, above the 3.6% forecast. Core CPI rose 2.6% year over year and 0.3% month over month, both hotter than market estimates, driven mainly by gasoline prices.
2️⃣ $BTC Bitcoin plunged about $1,000 shortly after the data was released and is now around $82,880, down 0.6% over 24 hours (high: $84,146; low: $82,605).
3️⃣ $ETH Ethereum is around $2,481 (-1.0%), SOL around $105.7 (-0.9%), and BNB around $738 (-0.3%). Altcoins are also weakening.
4️⃣ The 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 5.28%. Fed officials Williams, Collins, and Barkin have all recently hinted at the possibility of another rate hike this year, making markets more cautious ahead of the 10/28 FOMC meeting.
5️⃣ U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $175.7 million on Monday, providing continued support from the fund-flow side.
6️⃣ Strive added 3,311 BTC last week at an average price of around $84,500, bringing its total holdings to 32,773 BTC.
7️⃣ Institutional tokenization continues to advance: BNY and Citadel Securities completed a transaction using tokenized U.S. Treasuries as collateral.

📅 The U.S. PPI report is due tomorrow evening. If inflation data comes in hot again, watch whether the $81,000–$82,000 support zone holds.

After the hotter-than-expected CPI, do you think the Fed will raise rates again at the end of October? Share your thoughts in the comments 👇

#加密新聞 #CPI #Bitcoin