Trader-钧泽

First, look at the short-term view, with the long-term judgment below
Analyzing the cryptocurrency market must include liquidation data, because the crypto market is a derivatives market rather than a spot market. Derivatives trading volume has already far exceeded spot volume.
We can easily see that at this moment, the short positions above BTC are about to be fully liquidated (98.5k$), while a large number of long positions have accumulated below. Even if the price breaks through the high point of the past two months, I don't believe the momentum will be strong. A double liquidation of long and short positions is likely. After the short positions above are cleared, the price may reverse downward, forming a long trap that liquidates long positions.

BTC Liquidation Heatmap
BTC Long Trap

USD Index vs BTC Monthly Chart

Direct conclusion: The current bull-bear cycle of BTC has completely broken the already rare four-year cycle (i.e., the dollar cycle), as the DXY (Dollar Index) has entered a long-term trend of oscillating decline
In the long term, BTC and DXY exhibit a mirror-image relationship. If you accept that DXY is in a long-term oscillating downward trend, then you should believe BTC will experience a long-term upward movement
Mid-term: The bottom is between 62471.83 and 52596.39. If you believe in cycles, you should trust the cycle of RSI (6) (the purple line below), which can be understood as a judgment of extreme market sentiment extremes. You can check the monthly chart yourself for reference—without exception, the BTC monthly RSI has now fallen significantly below the 50 midline, indicating it will attract extreme selling sentiment, thus leading to the identified bottom price range