Teknik1menit
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Teknik1menit
Historical Analist 8_8
High-Frequency Trader
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Has Bitcoin reached its peak now (around $125K) or is there still a chance for $177K like many on-chain analysts target? Let's discuss based on historical data, cycle indicators, and macroeconomic behavior in 2025 👇
🧩 1. Current Bitcoin Cycle Position (November 2025)
If we use the classic Bitcoin cycle model based on the halving cycle (every 4 years):
HalvingYearInitial BullPeak 2025–2026❓❓
⏳ The last halving occurred in April 2024, so historical cycle peaks usually happen 12–18 months after the halving, which is between May 2025 – October 2026.
This means:
Statistics still support that Bitcoin has not reached its main peak.
📈 2. On-Chain Data & Cycle Indicators
Several key indicators used by cycle analysts (Glassnode, LookIntoBitcoin, etc.):
IndicatorCurrent ConditionMeaningMVRV-Z Score3.2 (not extreme)Usually >7 at the peak of a bull runPuell Multiple1.6Peaks usually at >3RHODL RatioRising, but not overheatedStill in mid-cycle phaseRealized Cap HODL WavesLong-term dominance decreasingDistribution starting but not extremeFunding RateNormal → not full euphoriaMarket not in bubble
🧠 On-chain conclusion:
Bitcoin has not shown signs of distribution peaks like in 2017 & 2021. Still in the middle of the expansion phase.
💵 3. Mathematical Target: $177,000 — Still Reasonable?
Several models point to that range:
ModelPeak EstimateExplanationStock-to-Flow (S2F)$165K–$190KBased on post-halving scarcityLog Regression Model$150K–$180KRange of the logarithmic top channelCycle Fibonacci Extension (2021 → 2025)1.618 = $177KSymmetry with previous cyclesTotal Crypto M.Cap Target 20266–7TImplies BTC ≈ $170K–$190K
🎯 So mathematically and historically:
The target of $177K per BTC is still very realistic for the peak cycle of 2025–2026,
as long as there is no major macro crisis (e.g., global war, extreme stagflation, etc.).
🧩 1. Current Bitcoin Cycle Position (November 2025)
If we use the classic Bitcoin cycle model based on the halving cycle (every 4 years):
HalvingYearInitial BullPeak 2025–2026❓❓
⏳ The last halving occurred in April 2024, so historical cycle peaks usually happen 12–18 months after the halving, which is between May 2025 – October 2026.
This means:
Statistics still support that Bitcoin has not reached its main peak.
📈 2. On-Chain Data & Cycle Indicators
Several key indicators used by cycle analysts (Glassnode, LookIntoBitcoin, etc.):
IndicatorCurrent ConditionMeaningMVRV-Z Score3.2 (not extreme)Usually >7 at the peak of a bull runPuell Multiple1.6Peaks usually at >3RHODL RatioRising, but not overheatedStill in mid-cycle phaseRealized Cap HODL WavesLong-term dominance decreasingDistribution starting but not extremeFunding RateNormal → not full euphoriaMarket not in bubble
🧠 On-chain conclusion:
Bitcoin has not shown signs of distribution peaks like in 2017 & 2021. Still in the middle of the expansion phase.
💵 3. Mathematical Target: $177,000 — Still Reasonable?
Several models point to that range:
ModelPeak EstimateExplanationStock-to-Flow (S2F)$165K–$190KBased on post-halving scarcityLog Regression Model$150K–$180KRange of the logarithmic top channelCycle Fibonacci Extension (2021 → 2025)1.618 = $177KSymmetry with previous cyclesTotal Crypto M.Cap Target 20266–7TImplies BTC ≈ $170K–$190K
🎯 So mathematically and historically:
The target of $177K per BTC is still very realistic for the peak cycle of 2025–2026,
as long as there is no major macro crisis (e.g., global war, extreme stagflation, etc.).
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