作手梁老师meta_推X特

Historically, the MACD death cross on the Bitcoin monthly chart has occurred only 3 times, and each time it has nearly dropped to the middle band of the Bitcoin monthly Bollinger Bands before rebounding for 1-2 months, then entering a major bear market. In June 2018, it fell from 8000 to half by the end of the year, and in December 2021, it dropped from 48000 to 16000. How much will it drop from 110000 this time? This is the third time; history is always so rhythmic and similar. Will it be the same? A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall; if I feel danger, I will be the first to run away. This is a notice, I will return to dig the grave and whip the corpse in six months to take a look.

$SNDK Sandisk seems like the entire AI sector has already bottomed out and rebounded on a weekly level, but I think this kind of monthly chart decline is only part of an oversold rebound. When it rebounds and then forms an M top, at most it will rebound to around the $1,700 area. The whole AI sector will likely also rebound and top out around then, which would be a huge opportunity to short. In the following two months, focus on whether Sandisk rebounds to the $1,700 area. If it’s weak later on, then around $1,550–$1,600 you can gradually add to a short position in the opposite direction. My view is that the AI sector has already topped out overall; what we’re seeing now is just an oversold rebound at the weekly level. After the rebound ends, go all-in on the short. Brothers who get stuck in the trade must get out and break even during this rebound; otherwise, it may be very hard to get out with a profit within the next three to five years.

Nasdaq 100 index futures, the main continuous contract, at the line level, has essentially topped out—this is basically a foregone conclusion. I expect another waterfall-like drop next month. Keep looking for opportunities to short. The financial crisis is already here—stay safe.

The Nasdaq index monthly line top fractal pattern has finally appeared. The global stock market's support anchor point—the AI sector—has also completely collapsed. The economic and stock market structure, which was originally going through an A/K-type (K-shaped) divergence, is now turning into an L-shape. Everyone is the same—no one is spared. Next month, take a momentum short position on the Nasdaq and its component weighted stocks.

Last week’s analysis review suggested that MU is very strong, and today it rose by 11%, with 100% accuracy. It’s likely that MU will pause and consolidate at this level. At that time, you can check again whether it will continue to break out. For friends holding short-term long positions, you can continue to take profit here and wait and see whether it will keep breaking out.

Hong Kong film circle mourns the loss of a legendary figure! “Fourth Brother” Tony Leung — as “Forever Four” — news of his sudden death has reportedly emerged today at the age of 89. While his son, Nicholas Tse, is currently preparing for singing concerts on July 25 and 26 with great intensity in Mainland China, he immediately rushed back to Hong Kong quietly and urgently to handle arrangements for his father. Their deep father-son bond moves many to tears. #NicholasTse #TonyLeung

Hong Kong dollar stablecoins are finally moving from concept to reality.
According to a report by the South China Morning Post on July 20, the issuance of stablecoins in Hong Kong is about to begin. Anchorpoint, a fintech company led by Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong), will, at the soonest, issue a joint announcement with Standard Chartered within the next two weeks, announcing the launch of a Hong Kong dollar–pegged stablecoin, “HKDAP.”
The company was one of the first recipients of stablecoin issuer licences from the Hong Kong Monetary Authority in April this year.
Previously, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority had announced granting the first stablecoin issuer licences to Anchorpoint and HSBC Bank. Hong Kong’s Web3 financial industry roundtable may really be starting to move.

[Middle East war flames fully reach Jordan: Iran launches night raid on US military base; situation is sliding toward a more dangerous edge]
On the 18th local time, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that it carried out missile and drone strikes on the US military base in Azraq, Jordan, on the night of the 17th.
Iran stated that the attack destroyed at least 2 US military fighter jets and 3 aircraft, and severely damaged several other aircraft.
From Iran’s mainland to Gulf sea routes, and to US military bases inside Jordan, the scope of the conflict is continuously expanding. If the US retaliates, the situation in the Middle East may enter a more difficult-to-control phase.

【Japan’s Crypto Market Completely Turns Over: The Coin Community Is Officially Included as “Financial Assets,” and the Era of Insider Trading Is Set to End】
According to NHK, on July 16, Japan’s parliament passed a legislative amendment that officially reclassifies cryptocurrencies as “financial assets.”
Previously, crypto assets were mainly regulated under the Payment Services Act. After the new rules take effect, Japan will impose even tighter regulatory constraints on the crypto market. Not only will it introduce restrictions on insider trading for the first time, but it will also impose heavier penalties for unregistered trading activities.
At present, the number of users on Japan’s crypto exchanges continues to grow, and major crypto companies are also accelerating their plans for the domestic market. The new regulations are expected to formally take effect within a year, and the stage of the “brutal” growth of Japan’s coin community may come to an end for good.

[France suddenly strikes hard: Polymarket faces nationwide blocks, prediction markets see another regulatory storm]
The French National Betting Management Authority (ANJ) has announced that it has asked local internet service providers to fully block the prediction market platform Polymarket.
Regulators accuse the platform of promoting illegal betting services. Not only could it cause users to suffer massive losses, some betting markets are also believed to be at risk of being manipulated.
Until Polymarket meets France’s betting regulatory requirements, it will remain under a blockade.

JPMorgan Sends a Major Signal: $3 Billion in Cash to Stabilize the Base—Institutional Money Is Reflowing Back to Bitcoin
On July 18, according to a report by The Block, JPMorgan analysts said that Strategy has recently increased its dollar reserves further, while the Bitcoin futures market has again recorded inflows. These developments are releasing “positive signals” for Bitcoin’s outlook. Although spot Bitcoin ETF inflows remain volatile, institutional market risk appetite appears to be quietly recovering.
Data show that spot Bitcoin ETFs were net inflows last week but switched rapidly to net outflows this week. By contrast, leverage ETFs linked to Strategy have maintained relatively stable net inflows for seven consecutive weeks. JPMorgan believes that this buying pressure mainly comes from retail investors and may continue to prop up Strategy’s share price, preventing its common shares from falling below the company’s bitcoin-related net asset value.
At the same time, Strategy has increased its dollar reserves from $2.55 billion to $3.0 billion, enough to cover roughly 20 months of preferred stock dividends. JPMorgan previously warned that the biggest market concern is Strategy being forced to sell Bitcoin in the future to pay dividends. If its cash reserves can cover 2 to 3 years of dividend payments, this potential “dumping bomb” would be clearly defused.
The analysts emphasized that it is still too early to say that increasing cash reserves has completely reversed Bitcoin investors’ sentiment. However, it is worth noting that while spot ETFs continue to face outflows, this week the CME Group Bitcoin futures and perpetual contracts have still recorded net inflows. This suggests that the futures market, which is truly institution-driven, is seeing demand pick back up.
Previously, Strategy’s President and CEO, Phong Le, stated clearly that the company will continue to buy Bitcoin long term and plans to remain the world’s largest Bitcoin buyer in the foreseeable future. After the STRC preferred shares return to a $100 per-share face value, the company may also continue to issue more shares. The proceeds would be used to buy additional Bitcoin and further expand its dollar reserves.

Huang Renxun’s “battle robe” sells for $960,000; ordinary leather jackets become priceless collectibles
A leather jacket worn by NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang fetched a wildly high price—nearly $1 million—far exceeding market expectations. Over the past two decades, the leather jacket has almost seemed welded to Huang’s body, becoming his most recognizable personal signature. Whether at product launches, company events, or industry conferences, he always appears wearing that iconic black Tom Ford leather jacket.
On Friday, this leather jacket—personally signed by Huang and worn by him—sold at Sotheby’s after 65 rounds of intense bidding, finally closing at $960,000, completely smashing the estimated range of $40,000 to $60,000.
Even more outrageous: its retail price is under $10,000. Simply because Huang wore it, the price was driven up by nearly a hundredfold. In 2023, he wore the jacket to attend an event held in Taipei by Foxconn.

AI stocks have all topped out—W3 people are basically Doomsday tanks right now. Wherever they go, that area collapses.

Iran’s covert order to the Houthis: If the U.S. dares to bomb power infrastructure, it will block the Strait of Hormuz!
On July 16, citing three sources, Reuters reported that Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthi forces to be ready in advance: if the U.S. attacks Iran’s power infrastructure, the Houthis will close the Strait of Hormuz.
This effectively puts the lifeline of global energy transport directly on the negotiating table.
The Strait of Hormuz is a key passage between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden; if it is blocked, the impact would not be limited to the Middle East, but would also hit global oil prices, shipping, and the energy supply chain—and could even further weigh on the global economy.
If oil prices spike, freight rates surge, and the supply chain breaks again, global inflation is very likely to rise anew, and the economic recovery of Europe and the U.S. would be directly interrupted. In severe cases, it could even pull the global economy into another round of recession.
Sources said the plan has been discussed within Iran’s leadership and that relevant information has already been passed to Iran’s Houthi allies.
The Houthi forces are reportedly aware of Tehran’s request in recent days.
However, the sources did not reveal how the demand was conveyed in detail, nor whether it was made after Trump threatened on Tuesday to attack Iran’s power infrastructure.
If the U.S. attacks Iran’s power grid, Iran will have the Houthis choke the Strait of Hormuz.
This is not an ordinary military threat—it is dragging the global energy market and the world economy together into the gunpowder barrel.

The U.S. Senate Takes a Rare Unanimous Stance: SBF Must Not Be Pardoned.
On July 16, according to CoinDesk, the U.S. Senate unanimously passed a non-binding resolution on July 16 local time, explicitly opposing FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried from receiving any presidential pardon or sentence reduction “under any circumstances.”
The resolution was jointly promoted by Cynthia Lummis, a Republican member of the Senate Banking Committee’s Digital Assets Subcommittee, and Ruben Gallego, a Democrat.
As early as November 2023, SBF was found guilty on seven counts by a jury. The central issue was the collapse of FTX, which resulted in damage to more than $8 billion in U.S. customer funds.
Under the current sentencing, he is expected to be released no earlier than 2044.
Interestingly, President Trump previously pardoned Binance founder Changpeng Zhao and Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road, but he has clearly stated that he has no intention of pardoning SBF.
For someone who has caused carnage among retail investors across the entire crypto world, trying to make a comeback by riding political winds may not be that easy.

The leverage structure of the BTC market is entering a historically high-risk range.
On July 16, according to CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk, the current BTC exchange leverage ratio has already broken into the top 5% range of historical extremes, significantly higher than the historical average.
At the same time, exchange stablecoin reserves continue to decline, and the lack of liquidity on the spot side is beginning to amplify.
This means that the scale of borrowed margin in the market has clearly exceeded the spot buying side’s ability to absorb it.
In other words, the underlying support for the current uptrend is not solid, and it relies more on leverage-driven capital.
The analyst noted that under this kind of structure, deleveraging events are not merely a hypothetical risk, but a result that is highly likely to be unavoidable during the mean-reversion process.
Once market makers are forced to participate in liquidations, the price could experience sharp downside volatility.
At this stage, controlling leverage exposure and protecting spot positions matters more than blindly chasing the rally.

The Fed turns hawkish again: If inflation isn’t falling, don’t expect an easy rate cut
On July 16, Fed governor Cook said it’s wise to wait for inflation to continue cooling, but if there are no signs of a slowdown for a long time, she is prepared to take action.
She also emphasized that the AI investment boom, tariffs, and the Iran war are creating new upward price pressures, and that today the inflation risks are already greater than employment risks.
This message is quite harsh for the market: rate cuts aren’t something you can just wait for.

SpaceX First Drops Below IPO Price, Market Begins Repricing Musk’s Concept.
On July 16, SpaceX (SPCX.O) fell below its $135 offering price, down 1.7% to $133.8 per share.
More sensitive is that SPCX has entered the Nasdaq 100 index; if it continues to weaken, it could also drag the Nasdaq 100 down with it.#spcx #马斯克概念

Breaking! Multiple explosions reported from Iran’s Qeshm Island.
On July 14, Iranian media reported that multiple explosions were heard on Iran’s Qeshm Island that day.
The specific cause is not yet clear.
This area is too sensitive—close to the Strait of Hormuz. If the situation continues to escalate, the risks to energy, shipping, and conflict in the Middle East could all be reignited.