随心16
不想做一名積極進取的韭菜級交易員
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Is the US and Iran playing "openly repairing the road while secretly crossing the river"? Talking tough on one side, while negotiating a deal on the other.
Last night, there was a mix-up regarding the Strait passage rights: Trump claimed an agreement had been reached, but the Iranian speaker rebutted with "it's all fake news." However, don't be fooled by the smokescreen; the 3-page memorandum (MOU) revealed by Axios is the real meat of the matter.
The core logic is actually simple: Iran wants to exchange 2000 kg of enriched uranium for $20 billion.
• The US wants: to throw money at you to achieve complete denuclearization, at least keep you in check for 20 years.
• Iran wants: I want the money, but I need to keep the nuclear seeds, at most pausing for 5 years.
The two sides are currently stuck on the details of "how to spend the money, how to manage missiles, and how to pass through the Strait." The inability to reach an agreement indicates that genuine negotiations are taking place; if it were all just a performance, that would be dangerous. We'll see if the second round of meetings in Islamabad on Sunday can break through this layer of paper. $BTC $BNB
Last night, there was a mix-up regarding the Strait passage rights: Trump claimed an agreement had been reached, but the Iranian speaker rebutted with "it's all fake news." However, don't be fooled by the smokescreen; the 3-page memorandum (MOU) revealed by Axios is the real meat of the matter.
The core logic is actually simple: Iran wants to exchange 2000 kg of enriched uranium for $20 billion.
• The US wants: to throw money at you to achieve complete denuclearization, at least keep you in check for 20 years.
• Iran wants: I want the money, but I need to keep the nuclear seeds, at most pausing for 5 years.
The two sides are currently stuck on the details of "how to spend the money, how to manage missiles, and how to pass through the Strait." The inability to reach an agreement indicates that genuine negotiations are taking place; if it were all just a performance, that would be dangerous. We'll see if the second round of meetings in Islamabad on Sunday can break through this layer of paper. $BTC $BNB
#巴菲特
Don't mythologize Buffett's cash-holding stance anymore; the reasoning is quite simple.
He reduced his Apple holdings purely because he has made enough profit and wants to secure it. After all, when something has multiplied five or six times, why wait until the New Year to sell? As for the cash flow hitting new highs, that's because he has a money printing machine at home (in the industrial sector), and there’s too much money to spend with no great bargains to seize; one can’t buy just for the sake of buying.
The biggest difference between us ordinary folks and the big shots is not the information gap, but liquidity. They have to sell stocks over a year, while we can clear our positions with just a few clicks. So the focus is not on what he has seen, but on whether you have the decisive courage to retreat when risks really arise.
Experts never rely on predictions; they rely on 'stability' and 'patience'.
#山寨币复苏？ #嘉信理财将推出加密货币交易服务 #高盛申请比特币收益型ETF
Don't mythologize Buffett's cash-holding stance anymore; the reasoning is quite simple.
He reduced his Apple holdings purely because he has made enough profit and wants to secure it. After all, when something has multiplied five or six times, why wait until the New Year to sell? As for the cash flow hitting new highs, that's because he has a money printing machine at home (in the industrial sector), and there’s too much money to spend with no great bargains to seize; one can’t buy just for the sake of buying.
The biggest difference between us ordinary folks and the big shots is not the information gap, but liquidity. They have to sell stocks over a year, while we can clear our positions with just a few clicks. So the focus is not on what he has seen, but on whether you have the decisive courage to retreat when risks really arise.
Experts never rely on predictions; they rely on 'stability' and 'patience'.
#山寨币复苏？ #嘉信理财将推出加密货币交易服务 #高盛申请比特币收益型ETF
$BTC
South Korea raises memory levels, why has memory become "gold bars"?
AI has become a "gold-eating monster"
Now the entire world is competing for AI computing power. Samsung and SK Hynix have diverted most of their production capacity to manufacturing more profitable HBM (high-bandwidth memory) for AI chips, severely squeezing production lines for ordinary memory used in regular computers and smartphones.
Big players "playing dirty"
These two South Korean giants are now taking a very firm stance, refusing to sign long-term agreements and only agreeing to quarterly contracts. The message is clear: prices haven't reached their peak yet, and we'll adjust prices at any time based on market conditions.
South Korea raises memory levels, why has memory become "gold bars"?
AI has become a "gold-eating monster"
Now the entire world is competing for AI computing power. Samsung and SK Hynix have diverted most of their production capacity to manufacturing more profitable HBM (high-bandwidth memory) for AI chips, severely squeezing production lines for ordinary memory used in regular computers and smartphones.
Big players "playing dirty"
These two South Korean giants are now taking a very firm stance, refusing to sign long-term agreements and only agreeing to quarterly contracts. The message is clear: prices haven't reached their peak yet, and we'll adjust prices at any time based on market conditions.
After Powell steps down as Chair of the Federal Reserve in May 2026, as long as he does not resign from his position as a Board Member, theoretically he could still be internally selected as the FOMC Chair.
This means there could be a 'dual leadership' situation in the second half of 2026: a new Chair handling administration, while Powell oversees monetary policy. This is exactly the 'shadow chair' loophole that Trump finds most troubling. The probability is low, but the stakes are high. If Powell stands firm, the White House would have no recourse.
$BTC
$ETH
This means there could be a 'dual leadership' situation in the second half of 2026: a new Chair handling administration, while Powell oversees monetary policy. This is exactly the 'shadow chair' loophole that Trump finds most troubling. The probability is low, but the stakes are high. If Powell stands firm, the White House would have no recourse.
$BTC
$ETH
Next, I will prepare to write some short posts on macro and personal trading strategies
#Strategy增持比特币
MSTR's increase is not a bottom signal, but a signal of trend maturity.
If good news doesn't lead to price rise, it's a risk. BTC is in a high-range zone; it's better to look downward at higher prices rather than chasing long positions.
MSTR's increase is not a bottom signal, but a signal of trend maturity.
If good news doesn't lead to price rise, it's a risk. BTC is in a high-range zone; it's better to look downward at higher prices rather than chasing long positions.
DeSpread released a report on the Korean crypto community, showing that Telegram is the most commonly used, rather than Twitter, which is commonly used in China and Japan; the search volume for tokens in South Korea exceeds that for stocks by 25%, while in the United States and Japan, the search volume for stocks is 20 times and 7 times that of tokens; a study of the 110 most active TG channels showed that the top four high-frequency words are Bitcoin, NFT, airdrop, and Ethereum; CoinNess, Naver, and Blockmedia are the most common sources of information on cryptocurrencies in South Korea.
Nvidia’s surprise earnings a year ago accelerated excitement about all things AI-related when the company forecast quarterly revenue more than 50% above Wall Street expectations, sending the company’s shares up 24% the next day.
This time around, bets in the options market imply an 8.6% swing in Nvidia’s stock price by Friday, Trade Alert data shows. That would translate into a $200 billion swing in market value — larger than the market value of about 90% of the companies in the S&P 500.
Of course, Nvidia’s soaring stock price means the company has to meet a high bar to support its stock. For example, some investors might want the company to report particularly strong revenue and expect it to remain strong going forward.
“Even though things look very good for Nvidia right now, revenue remains very volatile and I think quite unpredictable,” said Matt Benkendorf, chief investment officer at Vontobel Quality Growth.
Yet despite the surge in shares, Nvidia’s valuation has fallen as analysts have rapidly raised their estimates for the company’s expected profits. The stock recently traded at about 34 times expected earnings over the next 12 months, down from more than 80 times midway through last year, according to LSEG Datastream.
"Unlike some AI-driven companies ... Nvidia's growth is primarily driven by fundamentals," said Deepon Nag, portfolio manager of the large-cap value strategy at ClearBridge Investments. #AI
This time around, bets in the options market imply an 8.6% swing in Nvidia’s stock price by Friday, Trade Alert data shows. That would translate into a $200 billion swing in market value — larger than the market value of about 90% of the companies in the S&P 500.
Of course, Nvidia’s soaring stock price means the company has to meet a high bar to support its stock. For example, some investors might want the company to report particularly strong revenue and expect it to remain strong going forward.
“Even though things look very good for Nvidia right now, revenue remains very volatile and I think quite unpredictable,” said Matt Benkendorf, chief investment officer at Vontobel Quality Growth.
Yet despite the surge in shares, Nvidia’s valuation has fallen as analysts have rapidly raised their estimates for the company’s expected profits. The stock recently traded at about 34 times expected earnings over the next 12 months, down from more than 80 times midway through last year, according to LSEG Datastream.
"Unlike some AI-driven companies ... Nvidia's growth is primarily driven by fundamentals," said Deepon Nag, portfolio manager of the large-cap value strategy at ClearBridge Investments. #AI
QCP Capital noted that ETH May 24 contract price was 105 vols, indicating that significant volatility is expected before the filing deadline. ETH Perp fell from 50% to flat in 12 hours, and the June forward yield is still 15%, which may reflect a reduction in short-term speculation but continued medium-term bullishness. ETH May 24 and 31 risk reversals are -7, indicating that the market's concerns about short-term downside volatility linger, which may prompt people to tactically hedge ETH long positions. The narrative around cryptocurrencies has been growing in the US election, especially after the SEC's recent shift in stance. #以太坊ETF批准预期 $ETH
StarkWare, the lead developer of Starknet, has announced the launch of a zero-knowledge rollup (zkEVM) called Kakarot that is compatible with existing Ethereum infrastructure. The zkEVM has entered the testing phase and will be available through the Starknet Stack, a set of software tools that enable developers to easily create custom application chains. Starknet already has a zero-knowledge virtual machine (zkVM) that uses the Cairo programming language, and the zkEVM allows developers to use the Solidity programming language commonly used in Ethereum smart contracts. (CoinDesk)
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