乂 ＧＨＯＳＴ 乂

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju joined Binance Square’s Blockchain 100 to argue that a new bull cycle is already running, that Bitcoin whales are accumulating rather than distributing, and that the market has not fully priced it in. He also explained the mechanic behind one of the most common complaints in crypto — billions flowing in while the chart sits still — and set out the test he applies to other analysts, including the one he failed himself last year.Nothing below is investment advice, a point he returned to several times unprompted.The Call: Bear Cycle Over, Early in the BullJu said he has already made the public call. “I recently said that I believe the bear cycle is over and new bull cycle has been started,” he told host Jenny, adding that “it is bull right now” while acknowledging the market is working through a correction.Asked directly whether whales are accumulating or distributing, he chose accumulation without hedging: “I think we’re early in bull market and I’m buying with the intention of holding for at least a year.”His own positioning is spot rather than leveraged. He said he traded futures heavily when he was younger, sometimes putting everything into margin, and has since narrowed to accumulating spot Bitcoin and selling near cycle highs. “Trading is a game of probabilities. The more I think about the odds, the more I come back to a simple approach.”Supply Met Demand, So the Price StalledThe clearest market-mechanics section came from a deliberately simple question: how can billions enter Bitcoin without the price moving?“Because there’s just as much selling on the other side,” Ju said. “Ultimately, it comes down to supply and demand.”He described the period when Bitcoin traded in the low $100,000s as one of enormous demand that was fully absorbed. Long-term holders — what he called OG whales — were selling large volumes into it, which is why record trading volume coincided with a price that would not keep rising. He named the same dynamic as the reason sustained corporate accumulation did not translate into higher prices, and added that hedging by institutional trading desks played a key role.The takeaway is that inflow headlines describe one side of a transaction. Without the matching sell-side figure they say little about direction.Bitcoin and Altcoin Transfers Carry Different MeaningsJu was direct that the frameworks he is known for do not transfer cleanly between assets, and that he now reads them “completely differently.”Bitcoin has no significant DeFi ecosystem, so moving Bitcoin is most likely a trading action. Exceptions exist, such as depositing to an exchange to post collateral for a leveraged position, but he described those as a smaller share than on other chains.Ethereum and altcoins are the opposite case. A transfer there might be staking, posting collateral, or entering a DeFi position, none of which signal an intent to sell. Interpretation has to establish purpose before it can establish anything about supply.He extended the point to tokenized equities, saying BNB Chain has been effective at adopting real-world assets. Because trading tokenized stocks on a decentralized exchange is simply buying and selling, he said the Bitcoin methodology does apply — he has calculated a realized price, the aggregate cost basis of all holders, for tokenized Tesla shares, which gives a read on how much capital has entered through onchain channels.The Manipulation Pattern He Watches ForAsked what onchain data reveals that looks wrong, Ju declined to name any token and described the shape instead.The sequence he flagged begins with an unusually large exchange deposit from a founder, foundation or market maker. Price rises sharply shortly after, daily trading volume reaches hundreds of millions or billions, the entity sells gradually into that strength, and then price stops moving and stays capped.He said the pattern is straightforward to spot once the abnormal deposit is identified, and that he uses AI tools against CryptoQuant’s own metrics to surface the activity.His Three Tests for an Analyst, and the Call He Got WrongJu said the single most important quality in an analyst is the willingness to be wrong in public. He called the end of the bull cycle in 2025, Bitcoin went on to make new highs, and he posted the correction himself.“You can be brilliant at analysis, but if your ego stops you from acknowledging mistakes, you won’t get better,” he said, drawing a line between a wrong interpretation and bad data. “A wrong call doesn’t mean that data is wrong or the data has no value.” He described the episode as gaining views at the expense of reputation, and said he would make another public call regardless.His other two criteria: the ratio of evidence to argument, since a claim without data is “not even prediction, it’s just gambling”; and what he calls a clown score, the balance between posts written for attention and posts that inform. He allowed that influence requires some of both.He was candid about the cost of an audience of roughly half a million. Some followers trade on his posts despite the disclaimers, and he described receiving messages from people who said they had put everything in because they believed him. “That’s where the ethical dilemma comes in.”The Analyst Consensus IndexJu’s current project reads sentiment rather than chains. It aggregates posts from X and Stocktwits, uses a language model to classify each as bullish or bearish, and scores each analyst’s current stance into a single index. He said he is considering adding Binance Square as a source.The filter is the design choice. The index covers only analysts he grades A-tier and S-tier, with the seed list assembled from his own judgment while he works on an algorithm to replace it. He said shifts in that aggregated sentiment have tended to precede price declines.Principles Over PredictionsAsked what he would tell someone who wants to be right more than popular, Ju gave an answer about discipline rather than analysis: decide your principles, then live by them. He said generating principles is easy for anyone intelligent, and that almost nobody follows them consistently. His own method is writing them down, sharing them publicly, and being held to what he said.He cited CZ as his model on this point and recommended the Binance founder’s blog post on principles, pointing to his decision to stop playing poker and to avoid trading while running an exchange as examples of a rule kept rather than stated.His closing question for the Binance Square community went to traders directly: do you calculate the odds of making money before you open a position? “If you don’t, I would suggest stepping back from trading and dollar-cost averaging instead.”