交易员交亿元

👋 Let me introduce myself

I’m just an ordinary trader in the crypto market.

I’m not an institution or a crypto influencer, and I don’t make a living calling trades.
I don’t have any “insider information,” let alone a superpower for predicting whether prices will go up or down.

I just got into this market a few years earlier than many people. I’ve lived through rallies, crashes, FOMO, missed opportunities—and paid plenty of tuition along the way.

These days, I’m more interested in one question:

Why open a trade at this price?

I follow BTC, ETH, and some altcoins, and I also research sectors like RWA, DeFi, AI, and MEME.

What matters most to me:
📌 Does the project have real value?
📌 Can the token capture that value?
📌 Has its valuation already priced in too much?
📌 Is market sentiment too one-sided?
📌 Is there still enough upside relative to the risk at this price?

I’m not into “mindlessly bullish” takes, and I don’t shout about massive pumps and dumps every day just to get views.

When I’m bullish, I’ll say so. When I’m bearish, I’ll say so.
If I’m wrong, I’ll own it. If the logic changes, I’ll adjust.

What I share here is all my personal thinking and trading records. Whenever I call a trade, I’ll make it public—and take the trade myself. This is not investment advice.

If you’re also just an ordinary trader,
with no insider info and no millions in capital,
spending each day studying the market and wondering if you’ve bought the top again…

then I think we’ll get along. 😂

Let’s study together, make money together, and learn from the market together.

Welcome aboard.

I occasionally keep an eye on some on-chain tokens too, and take a small punt. Lately, I’ve seen a lot of people—including some major KOLs—promoting $DNA on the Square. I really want to know: would anyone actually dare buy a coin where the top ten holder addresses own 98% of the supply and the market is so heavily controlled by insiders? Isn’t that just an outright cash grab at retail investors’ expense?
Everyone, please keep your eyes open. A lot of KOLs on the Square are paid to promote these things. Listen to them, and sooner or later you’ll lose everything.

#iPhoneDuo Guys, can the iPhone Duo, which won’t ship until January 23, get a piece of the pie?

The short position from yesterday, $ARB , can still be held. Following our approach for a choppy downward market, we closed around $BTC 8 ten-thousand. We can continue to go long around 78,000. A choppy market is actually the best kind of market for making money. Manage your position size well; making 100–200U a day is also a great option for ordinary people like us.
I expect Bitcoin to dip to around the strong support at 78,000 before rebounding. After that, the support levels to watch are 75,000 and 73,000.
My final view is the same as it was in late September: 73,000 is still the ultimate level for this correction.

$CL Crude oil prices have once again topped 100, and the macro outlook is still not encouraging.
I feel like a lot of Trump's policy ideas are good, but the end results are always a complete mess.

$BTC $ETH I mentioned last month that the short-term market would most likely be dominated by choppy downward adjustments, and that altcoins would see a sharp pullback. Looking at things today, that prediction has basically come true.
The recent market has actually been easy to trade: it has a clear direction and a wide trading range, so you can profit from both long and short positions. Choppy markets are the most comfortable to trade—just find the right levels and trade back and forth.
If you’re not sure how to identify the right levels, please like and follow. I’ll share levels for everyone’s reference every day, and whenever I place a trade, I’ll post it live for you to follow as well.

$ETH It played out according to our script, reaching 2,490 before quickly pulling back. My view all along was that a large number of shorts had piled in toward the end of the previous downturn, pushing Ethereum funding rates into negative territory. The market then rebounded sharply with the trend, squeezing shorts. But that liquidity came from liquidating short positions, not from fresh capital entering the market. So once the short squeeze was over, the market would still move sideways and down. Shorting the Ethereum ecosystem at $ARB was also perfectly reasonable. Once again, I wrote the perfect script in advance today!

This morning, I said $ETH would rebound to around 2490–2500. It has reached that level now, presenting an excellent opportunity to go short. I also increased my short position at $ARB . This rally is a classic short squeeze; once it moves higher, it will quickly reverse and head down. Go short decisively.

Longs live like dogs,
shorts live in palaces!
Still have ammo—$ETH once the rebound reaches its target, add another position and go short$ARB

$ETH If ETH falls below 2290, around 100,000 ETH long positions will be liquidated. Will the market makers let them off the hook? I don't think so. Ethereum ecosystem tokens can still be shorted on a pump. I'm still holding my core short position and will keep waiting for ETH to rebound to around 2490 before adding to it.

Looks like the dentist even went to comment on the business’s post hahaha. This isn’t over yet!
The business’s comment section has been flooded, and it’s gone viral 😂 But everyone’s been really nice—they’re just joking around, and there haven’t been any nasty comments affecting the business. Everyone’s been so respectful 👍

I expect $BTC to rebound to the upper end of the trading range, around 83500–83800.
And $ETH should rebound to around 2480–2500, so there’s still some room for the current rebound. I’ve only opened a small starter short position in $ARB , so I’ll add to it once the rebound reaches those levels. For now, it’s caught in the middle, so I’ll just hold the initial short position and watch. Don’t go all in.

Let’s talk about why I’m taking profits on long positions relatively quickly right now, while giving short positions more room.
In this choppy market, many of you have noticed my approach: short around 83,000 and go long around 80,000. But my profit target for shorts is higher—10%—while for longs I’m generally aiming for around 5%. Why?
Because based on the current medium-term trend, I think $BTC will fall again, to around 76,000. So since I’m bearish, I have to be more cautious when going long against the trend.
My targets for longs and shorts are also very clear. For longs, I’m trading $UNI ; once the subsequent adjustment is complete, I’ll hold a large position. For shorts, I’ve chosen $ARB . As an L2 project, I’m not optimistic about it. I think this rally is a dead-cat bounce.

The rebound is happening very quickly. I didn't expect it to reach our short-entry level so soon. Let's keep shorting our old friend $ARB . $ETH could rebound to around 2500. We can just short along the market's trading range and the descending trendline of $ARB .

Caught another rebound move. Next, if $BTC offers an opportunity at 83000-84000, you can choose $ARB to continue shorting.

$UNI Take profit, capture 4% at the low, and call it a day. Selling high and buying low is the best strategy in a volatile market.

A short-term rebound looks worth trading now. 80,000 seems to be holding up pretty well, so I’m going long at $UNI . We caught a bite on the pullback, and now we’ll take a bite out of the rebound too!

Can someone tell me what kind of tricks Brother Maji is up to, gambling every day? This younger brother is inexperienced—please enlighten me, big bro. $BTC

I’ve been reminding everyone to go short since late September. Now that the market has reached this stage, here’s my latest assessment: it’s no longer a good time to short. In fact, it’s a good time to accumulate on dips!
Today, let’s talk about the macroeconomic picture.
Yesterday, US CPI came in above expectations once again, with year-over-year inflation rising to 3.7%. Concerns about another Fed rate hike have resurfaced. US tech stocks are under pressure, and risk assets are once again at a crossroads.
But I want to offer a different perspective.
Markets don’t just trade on data; they also trade on how policy might change in the future.
With the US midterm elections drawing closer, inflation and the cost of living have become issues Trump can’t avoid.
If oil prices remain high, inflation stays elevated, the Fed struggles to change course, and the stock market keeps falling, that’s clearly bad news for the party in power.
So I’ve been thinking: does Trump have an incentive to ease geopolitical tensions, increase energy supplies, or even make concessions on some trade policies before the election?
My answer is yes. Once the market has absorbed the negative CPI news in the short term, this is an expectation that will inevitably be priced in. So when you say $BTC is going to plunge from here, I don’t think that’s very likely.
But at this point, I definitely wouldn’t recommend panic-selling at a loss or shorting.
Many altcoins, such as $UNI $PONS , have already pulled back significantly from their highs. If you’re confident in the fundamentals, you might as well put some money into spot. As for BTC, I think it will digest its previous gains through consolidation, and there should be some rebound momentum over the next few days.
The hardest part of trading isn’t predicting whether prices will rise or fall tomorrow. It’s being able to think independently even when the market is at its most pessimistic.

#BTC #宏观分析 #交易员押注美联储再加息三次 #CPI #加密市场

I really don't understand why some people were bullish on $UNI when it was at $10, but aren't bullish anymore now that it's at $7. Do you know why?