张烁峰的剧本日记

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#加密市场观察

BTC market analysis
2026.08.17

At the end of June and the beginning of July, we pointed out that BTC started to rebound, with a target of 66,900. After BTC rose to 66,956, we indicated that the next step would be a pullback. Now, 26 days have already passed—has the pullback finished? Can BTC still be traded?

Old friends should remember that when BTC climbed to around 66,956, I posted on X telling everyone that the market would run through a pullback targeting the entire up-move range of 57,800—66,956, so at that time I also placed a short position. The market afterward has been pretty frustrating—although the direction was correct, after more than 20 days, the maximum drop was only about 7%.

Making the correct call on direction but ending up with very little profit from a trade like this is extremely common in trading—especially in today’s environment, which is so bad for crypto.

What we can do is to respect the market, manage expectations, and keep a calm mindset.

Right now, there is only one scenario that would allow us to assume the pullback is over—BTC breaks above 65,400 with strong volume. Otherwise, we do not assume the pullback has ended.

However, it is clear that the pullback that started from 66,956 is already in its late stage. The downside observation points remain 61,900 and 60,500. If this week’s downward test of the key levels shows a reaction, it may mark the end of the pullback that has been ongoing for nearly a month.

After the pullback ends, the next move would be an upswing at the same level as the one from 57,800 to 66,956. #BTC走势分析 $BTC

BTC is really done for. Now if we liquidate, it’s only around 100 million.
We’ll continue to rest on the weekend #BTC走势分析

After SPCX touched the pressure level and withdrew as expected—has the rebound ended?

Let’s start with the conclusion—until the daily candlestick body does not break below 130.65, the decline that began at 149.6 is still considered a pullback against the rally from 104.85 to 149.6. As long as this level is not lost, there’s no possibility that the rebound structure has been broken. Once we find the end of the pullback, there is still room to the upside.

Looking back at this round of price action, it’s actually quite interesting.

On August 5, I judged that SPCX was about to start a large-scale rebound. At that time, the mainstream sentiment in the market was: “After the lock-up release, it will fall below 100, even down to 80.” After the price rose to around 149, I pointed out that this area might mark the beginning of a pullback—yet sentiment quickly flipped again to “a sprint toward 160+.”

Why was I able to make the correct calls at two key nodes—104.85 and 149.6? I believe that in addition to technical analysis, understanding fundamentals, market expectations, and sentiment is also extremely important.

On August 5, the market almost equated “lock-up release” with “dumping pressure.” But most people ignored that a lock-up release only grants trading eligibility—it doesn’t mean all holders will sell immediately.

On August 6, after the first batch of restricted shares—up to roughly 911.5 million shares—was released, there was no panic-like selloff as expected. Instead, in the very next trading day, it jumped 15.8%. That actually shows that a significant portion of the most pessimistic expectations was already priced in by the time the event happened.

So, looking back—how important is the “lock-up release”? It is important, but not as important as people imagined. What matters more is the logic behind the release. The bearish factors were priced in early, and the company’s growth thesis hasn’t been broken. This is the real thing behind the lock-up release—something we need to think about more to truly see.

Of course, SPCX’s subsequent lock-up releases and its heavy AI investment will continue to bring volatility. The pullback starting from 149.6 essentially reflects the market’s concerns. But for now, as long as it can hold above 130.65, I still define it as a normal pullback after the rally. I will only consider other possibilities if a daily candlestick body breaks below that level and cannot regain it. #spcx

In the video on August 9th, it was said that the important resistance level above BTC is 65,400. After being rejected at that level and falling back, the current decline has already reached 4.25%. So how should we look at the next move?

On July 1st, when BTC dropped to 57,800, I pointed out that this was a stage low and suggested that the subsequent move would at least include a rebound of the same degree targeting the decline from 82,850 to 57,800. On July 19th, I gave the end point of the first wave of the upswing at 66,900. After price rose to 66,956, it pulled back as expected.

At present, we still maintain the same view—starting from 66,956, the move is a correction/retrace for the upswing from 57,800 to 66,956 (as shown by the blue segment + the blue box). This correction has already completed more than 70%. Below there are two key observation points:

1️⃣ 61,700. If this level is not broken down, it indicates that the move starting from 66,956 is a horizontal consolidation, and the adjustment should end no later than before 8/24, after which the next leg of an upswing of the same degree as the move from 57,800 to 66,956 will begin.

2️⃣ 57,800–60,500. After the daily candlestick body breaks below 61,700, the most important support zone lies here. If this zone is not broken, BTC’s overall structure will not be damaged, and there will still be another upswing of the same degree afterward.

Crypto market conditions have indeed been quite tormenting lately—there isn’t much strong trading edge on the short term. But when it comes to the bigger picture: BTC is currently in the “seeding season.” It’s not realistic, nor does it follow objective law, to expect the autumn harvest crops to bear fruit in spring. Just keep quietly cultivating and wait for the harvest.

During this period, if other US stock assets provide trading opportunities with a good profit effect, #BTC走势分析 $BTC might also have setups—I will share them with everyone as well. Stay tuned.

Figure 1 shows the CRCL expected trend chart drawn on April 30, while Figure 2 shows the current structure. Facts have proven that the market moves much slower than we imagined.

How does CRCL look now? How should we operate? Let’s talk about it simply today:

As shown in Figure 3, 140–57.84 is part of a daily-chart-level downtrend. As long as the subsequent CRC can stay above 70, we can assume that the rebound from 57.84 will be at least one daily-chart-level bounce. This targets the decline from 140–57.84, and the end point of that rebound should be at least above 80.

Drawing a Gann angle line from the high of 140 down to the low of 57.84, we can see that the 89 line is an important resistance. If it can later break through and hold above it, the nature of the行情 from 57.84 may change.

During the downtrend, I already built some positions in CRCL in batches. The entry level isn’t particularly good. In the beginning of this week, it’s just turned into unrealized profit. After the rebound reaches the resistance area, we’ll judge whether to continue holding or reduce positions in time to respond to the situation. For friends trading short-term, you can keep an eye on it—so long as it doesn’t break down through the 70 level, I think there are also opportunities to go long in the short term. #crcl $CRCL

S&P Hits New High Again? Where Does It End?

Old friends probably won’t be surprised that the S&P is making fresh highs—after all, in my weekly Sunday video in July, I said that the 7,624 move was part of a pullback, not a new decline, and the broader uptrend is far from over.

We’ve held this view throughout. In the Aug 2 video, I even boldly predicted that the S&P would finish its correction and then break upward—and that view has now been confirmed!

So what should we watch next? How much higher can the S&P go?

I believe the (inside the red box) S&P is currently running is an advance at the same level as the upswing shown on the left side of the chart—both belong to the weekly timeframe. This means that as long as the daily candlestick body does not close below 7602, the rally won’t lose momentum.

History doesn’t simply repeat, but it is always strikingly similar. Looking back at the S&P’s historical process, even after a correction at the weekly level ends, most of the time the market can once again produce a trend move that sustains.

From July’s “this is just a pullback,” to Aug 2’s “the correction is over and a breakout is coming,” and now to fresh highs—market action is step by step validating my earlier judgment.

Predicting once might be luck. Getting the timing right consistently comes from a system. #US July CPI and PPI data released this week

As shown in Figure 1, in my August 5 post I clearly said that SPCX is about to begin a large-scale rebound. At that time, the mainstream view in the market was that the unlocking is coming soon, and that SPCX would fall below 100, even below 80! So what happened next? SPCX rose from 104.85 to 133.

In the video from August 9, I provided an observation point at 133 and said that after breaking through here, the rebound would continue. After this week’s breakout, it kept going up another 14.6%; the big trend and all the smaller nodes hit exactly.

As shown in Figure 2, last night SPCX’s price reached 149.6. We stood on the opposite side of everyone else, and we also received what belongs to us as a reward—an accumulated gain of 42%!

As shown in Figure 3, the observation points above SPCX are now at 150–152. If it can break through here, the rebound can continue. Otherwise, it will start to adjust, and it may even return to a downtrend. But it’s a bit early to talk about that for now—if there are any changes later, I will follow up.

We’ve already captured the 42% gain. Anything above 149.6 can be treated as the bonus that “Old Ma” gives. Since it’s a gift, you can’t expect too much. #spcx $SPCX

Once a trend is established, it won’t be changed easily. XAU Gold📈✌🏻️

I hope everyone still remembers our observation range. The gains and losses at this level are the turning point for the gold market trend over the next six months. #xau $XAU

What exactly is BTC trying to do recently? If you don’t understand the structure, it’s hard to gain anything whether you go long or short.

In a tweet on July 19, it was said that the first rebound high point from 57,800 would be at 66,900. Then on July 21, BTC rose to 66,956, confirming that view. Now, 20 days have passed since 66,956—so what on earth is Bitcoin doing?

The move from 57,800 to 66,956 is an uptrend on the daily timeframe. What has been running since 66,956 is a pullback targeting that daily uptrend. This kind of slow, messy action is completely normal—and it actually confirms our view that BTC is already in the main-accumulation phase. The longer it spends consuming sideways time, the less torment there will be afterward. Every day brings us one step closer to the end of the bear market.

In the video on August 9, the important resistance level at 65,400 came up again and pushed back strongly. So we opened a short position, which we are still holding. As long as this week BTC can’t stay above 65,400, the adjustment will very likely continue.

An important observation point below is the green Gann angle line at 61,800. If price does not break below this level, then we’re likely still in a sideways consolidation bounded by the blue and green Gann angle lines. If it breaks down, it could turn into a deeper pullback. In the next few days, just watch how price reacts at the key levels above and below.

#BTC走势分析 $BTC

Since June 30, the gold increase has already reached 12.47%. Friends who have been following my #Gold analysis posts may find it hard to believe: a trader born in 1999 actually managed to grasp with such precision the pulse of a trading instrument that has had thousands of years of wealth consensus behind it, and has been operating in modern free financial markets for over 50 years.

As shown in Figure 1, on March 1, 2026 I released my gold forecast chart. After that, on the 120th day, this trend was perfectly validated! The structure, the magnitude, and the duration—everything is exactly right.

As shown in Figure 2, on July 22 I clearly stated that the decline in gold was coming to an end and that a major rebound was about to begin—at that time its price was around 4000.

Last week I said that once it broke 4330, it would continue rising. This week, after the breakout, it climbed again by nearly a hundred—once more verifying that my view was correct! So how should we look at what comes next?

As shown in Figure 3, at minimum gold running from 3942 is a rebound targeting the blue-segment decline. 4528–4578 is an important resistance zone, and whether this rebound can expand into a turning point aimed at the red-segment decline depends on it.

To keep the posts concise, I usually provide the key reference prices directly. But for many friends who care about “how these prices are derived,” I’m also happy to share: for example, as in Figure 4, this level isn’t drawn randomly—it’s the result of rigorous reasoning, meticulous calculations, and cross-validation from multiple systems.

⚠️Since my update in 2025, I have used the Gann theory to accurately capture almost every major turning point of XAU. Going forward, if the structure changes, I will update it in a timely manner—please stay tuned.#xau $XAU

BTC key levels again📉 ✌🏻️#BTC走势分析 $BTC

After precisely hitting the XAU gold on March 1, 2026, and then tracking the gold’s走势 for the following 120 days, on August 2 I followed up with my outlook on gold’s broader trend:

If it can stay above the Gann angle line 2/1, then there will at least be one major-scale rebound afterward. Even if the correction has already ended and a new uptrend has begun. From the lowest point, gold’s rise has already reached 6.87%. Will gold “continue to be legendary” in the second half of 2026? Let’s wait and see.#xau $XAU

Does the S&P breaking to new highs come as a surprise? Not at all. As early as mid-July, I already proposed that there was a high probability the S&P would move sideways. In the August 2nd video (p1 p2), I even directly told everyone that we’ve already reached the end of the correction phase and that it would most likely break upward. Now the S&P’s move has already been兑现 (confirmed/fulfilled).

XAU gold’s走势 (price action) has also initially matched expectations. My view is still unchanged (p3 p4). We’ll see whether it will break through directly like the S&P or whether it will pull another fakeout. But either way, I believe that when you look back, the outcome will still end up matching expectations. #xau $XAU

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