牛哥十三的交易笔记

Remember that no one can win every battle, but we can give the most appropriate operation through technical analysis. Making a long-term and stable profit is the best protection we can provide to everyone. Under the premise of the bull market trend, we need to find the right opportunity. There are opportunities everywhere in the short term. We should maintain a good attitude and act when the time is right. Hesitation will only lead to failure, and decisiveness will lead to victory!
Communication: dc102736

This market is meant to bring benefits. Such an increase lasts for one day in the currency circle and several years in the human world. If you don’t know what to buy, just buy whatever is recommended by my square. My long order is a direction indicator, with more than 0.48 pixels. Currently 0.62, portals with more than 2 are now 2.4, manta with more than 2.6 are now 3.6, you can make money with long orders. I don’t know what to buy. The more the Singapore currency falls, the more I buy. It has been said so straightforwardly. If you don’t know the point, , you can participate in activities and join my member group

Investing is like playing baseball, you don't have to swing the bat every time. This is a wise saying from investment guru Warren Buffett.
In the world of investment, opportunities are like balls on a baseball field, constantly flying around. However, not every ball is worth swinging the bat. Acting too frequently may cause us to make wrong decisions at inappropriate times, resulting in unnecessary losses.
Buffett's words remind us that investment requires patience and wisdom. We cannot be swayed by short-term fluctuations and temptations, but should remain calm and rational, waiting for investment opportunities that are truly potential and valuable to appear. Just as baseball players will not swing the bat at will during the game, but will observe the speed, direction and landing point of the ball and choose the most appropriate time to hit the ball, investors should also carefully select projects that can bring them rich returns during the investment process.
On the road of investment, rushing for success is often a taboo. Sometimes, we need to learn to wait, wait for market changes, wait for the right time, and wait for those truly excellent companies to show their value. Only in this way can we achieve better results in investment and realize wealth growth.
In short, the saying "Investing is like playing baseball, you don't have to swing the bat every time" contains profound investment philosophy. It teaches us to keep a clear head and a prudent strategy in investment, not to follow the trend blindly or act impulsively, but to be good at waiting for and seizing the best investment opportunities.

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In the cryptocurrency market, BTC share has always been regarded as an important indicator. It reflects the market capitalization ratio of BTC in the entire cryptocurrency market, and also indirectly reflects the overall market sentiment and investor confidence.
Looking back at history, we can see that in the violent bull markets of 2017 and 2021, the alt season was accompanied by a significant decline in BTC share. In 2017, the pie market share dropped from around 90% to around 35%; and in 2021, the pie market share dropped from around 70% to around 35%. This suggests that investor interest in altcoins increases during these times, with funds flowing from BTC to other cryptocurrencies, driving the overall market boom.
However, from last year to this year, the market share of large cakes has been rising slowly, and there is no obvious downward trend. That could mean the real copycat season isn't here yet. While the market has experienced some volatility and corrections, investor confidence in BTC appears to remain strong, and there has not been a massive flow of funds into altcoins.
At present, the higher the market share of big cakes, the more beneficial it may be for the later copycat season. This means that funds in the market are relatively concentrated. Once investors' interest in altcoins increases, funds may flow in quickly, driving up the price of altcoins. Therefore, for investors, the battle now is patience.
At the same time, we cannot ignore the possibility of market adjustment. Before every wild bull market, the market usually goes through a bloodbath, and many investors may collapse before dawn. Therefore, it is very important to remain calm and rational during the investment process.
In short, BTC share is an important indicator of the altcoin season, but it is not the only indicator. Investors should comprehensively consider various market factors to make wise investment decisions. When the market fluctuates and adjusts, only by staying patient and calm and believing in the long-term trend of the market can you get better returns on your investments.

Buffett's classic quotes:
1. How much wealth you can accumulate in your life does not depend on how much money you can make, but on how you invest and manage your finances. Money finds people better than people find money. You must understand that money works for you, not you work for money.
2. At the beginning, the best deals will almost tell you not to buy them from the numbers.
3. The reason why we have achieved our current achievements is that we care about finding those one-foot obstacles that we can cross, rather than having the ability to fly over seven feet.
4. I am greedy when others are fearful, and I am fearful when others are greedy.
5. If you don't want to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes.
6. It is very stupid to own a stock and expect it to rise the next morning.
7. Never ask the barber if you need a haircut.
8. Anything that cannot develop forever will eventually die.
9. Investment is not a game where a person with an IQ of 160 can definitely beat a person with an IQ of 130.
10. The market is like God, helping those who help themselves, but unlike God, it will not forgive those who don't know what they are doing.
We think it is sometimes practical in the currency market. If you are in the currency circle, you might as well take a look
If you feel helpless and confused in trading at the moment, want to know more about the currency circle and first-hand cutting-edge information, click on the avatar introduction to find me. Welcome to like, collect, forward, comment, leave a message #BTC #ETH

The United States is focusing on ETH. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is preparing to define ETH as a security. Once this move is passed, the platform may completely remove ETH, and at the same time, many public chains will also face strict scrutiny from the SEC.

The foreign network reacted strongly to this, and ETH fell sharply and showed a weak trend. A long time ago, the United States tried to define BTC as a security. After two years of discussion, BTC was finally defined as a commodity. There is a clear difference in the scope of regulation of commodities and securities.

First of all, securities can only be traded on securities trading platforms, such as the US Nasdaq or global stock markets, but commodities can be traded on any platform, just like you have never heard of buying and selling sweet potatoes and must be done on a specific trading platform.

More importantly, securities mean that financing is needed. Since you have the money, you must do something and put the money in a cage. Every sum of money must have a clear purpose, and what you do must be made public to everyone. How many public chains can do this at present?

At the same time, securities also mean facing the strongest supervision of the SEC. The US securities law has a strict and detailed regulatory plan, which is bound to lead to the arrest of a large number of project parties.

On the surface, defining coins as securities seems to be a bad thing, but it is mainly for the project parties. Wang Ge thinks it is a good thing for most people, at least there is no need to worry about the project parties absconding with the money.

But the project parties are all against the SEC. ConsenSys pointed out that ETH is not a security, but decentralized. The CFTC also admitted that ETH is a commodity. In short, they said a lot. The SEC said I understand, but I will continue to check.

The change in the SEC's attitude towards ETH started with its conversion from POW to POS. The conversion of ETH to POS means the centralization of computing power. In essence, the project parties are maintaining the network. They didn't know who to catch before, but now they finally found someone who came forward. The Americans want to hit this bird that came forward.

The SEC defines ETH as a security. This is not something that can be completed in a short time. It may take a long time from the draft to implementation. During this period, we should pay close attention to relevant developments, and also pay attention to the coins in our hands. Whether they are biased towards POW or POS will have an impact on the long-term value of the coin.

Bitcoin is near the 62,000 support level again. Let's take a look at the recent negative factors and the panic factors brought to the market by the dog dealer:
1. The Federal Reserve postponed the interest rate cut
2. The SEC is expected to reject Ethereum's ETF application next month
3. The verdict on CZ will be announced tomorrow (April 30)
4. Mt.Gox is about to pay 142,000 Bitcoins to creditors
It should be noted that the above content is only an objective statement of market information and does not constitute any investment advice. Bitcoin, as a virtual currency, has large price fluctuations and high investment risks. Before making any investment, please fully understand the relevant market and investment knowledge, and make prudent decisions based on your own risk tolerance.

"Jinsha Academy" April 29, 2024, market trend analysis:

The main currency BTC in the current market is showing a volatile trend, and the focus of market speculation has shifted to the ETH series. At the same time, the US stock market rebounded, and the market expects a 35 basis point interest rate cut this year and another 60 basis points next year.

Market hot spots:

1. The public chain ETH has risen sharply, and the ETHBTC exchange rate has also risen sharply. The market speculation expects that ETH spot ETFs will pass by the end of May, similar to the logic of BTC ETFs. However, the activity on the ETH chain is not high, and the gas is only 6 Gwei.
2. ETHFI, SSV and other currencies pledged by ETH ecological projects have followed the rise, and BN, which Renzo will pledge again tomorrow night, will also participate. ETH L2's OP, STRK and other currencies have also followed the rise. OP will have news of a large unlock of 60 million US dollars this week.
3. Depin's mobile, HNT and other currencies have risen sharply. Recently, there have been many airdrops in the sol mobile phone ecosystem, which has driven the rise of related currencies.
4. A magic mine has appeared in the stablecoin protocol bucket of the sui ecosystem. Bucket is a copycat of the over-collateralized stablecoin makerdao, with a stablecoin yield APR of up to 70%, and there is a high probability that tokens will be airdropped in the future.

The above are the main trends and hot spots in the current market. Investors can make corresponding investment decisions based on this information.

Sun's operation is puzzling. Did he learn the news in advance and deposit money in advance to ambush and pick up bargains, or was he unfortunately deceived and suffered a sharp drop just after buying? Let's discuss together, which possibility is more likely?

Recently, Sun frequently deposited huge amounts of cash U into Binance, completely ignoring the risks on the market, bought a large amount of ETH and then withdrew a large amount. What is his operating idea? Isn't he worried about the risk of stepping back as those experts said? Who gave him such confidence to keep buying? What does this series of actions imply? Was the Ethereum he bought used to be pledged on the chain to earn some interest, or was it transferred to the ETF company in Hong Kong to enrich the bottom warehouse?

In addition, Justin Sun's address transferred 85.53 million USDT to Binance a few hours ago. On April 27, according to on-chain data analyst Ember’s monitoring, Justin Sun’s address redeemed 85.53 million USDT from JustLend 4 hours ago and transferred all of it to Binance again.

Coin circle, an opportunity for ordinary people to turn over?

In today's society, the distribution of wealth often presents an unbalanced state. Many ordinary people are eager to change their destiny, achieve wealth growth and improve their lives. At this time, the coin circle seems to be the only opportunity for them to turn over.

The coin circle, a field full of mystery and opportunities, has attracted the attention of many ordinary people. Compared with the traditional investment field, the coin circle has some unique advantages.

On the one hand, the entry threshold of the coin circle is relatively low. Unlike traditional investments such as real estate and stocks, a large amount of funds are required to participate. Ordinary people can get high returns with a small amount of capital investment.

On the other hand, the development speed of the coin circle is extremely fast. With the continuous development of blockchain technology, the application scenarios of digital currency are becoming more and more extensive, which also brings more opportunities to investors.

However, we cannot ignore the risks of the coin circle. The market volatility of the coin circle is large, and the price trend is difficult to predict. Investors need to have sufficient knowledge and experience to gain a foothold in this market.

For ordinary people, if they want to turn over in the coin circle, they need to pay attention to the following points:

1. Learn relevant knowledge: understand the basic concepts, technical principles and market dynamics of digital currency.

2. Control risks: Do not invest all your money in the cryptocurrency circle, and diversify your investments reasonably.

3. Stay calm: Do not blindly follow the trend when the market fluctuates, and make rational decisions.

4. Pay attention to industry trends: Keep abreast of the development of blockchain technology and policy changes.

In short, the cryptocurrency circle may be the only chance for ordinary people to turn over, but investors also need to be cautious. On the road to pursuing wealth, we must remain rational and calm, and continue to learn and grow. Only in this way can we realize our wealth dreams in the cryptocurrency circle.

The current market continues to fall, which does make people a little anxious and at a loss as to what to do. This is especially true for long-term spot. Last year, Bitcoin ETF was hyped, and this year Ethereum ETF is hyped again, which is exactly the same. But we need to wait patiently, and if we are trapped, we must hold on firmly. Looking back, the most difficult time last year was around August. Wasn't the situation more desperate than it is now? But looking back now, how many people regret not getting on the bus at that time. Fortunately, I still insisted on fixed investment during that period. Remember, we are in the mid-term wash-out stage of the bull market, provided that we always stay on the bus. I found that some friends started complaining as soon as their assets fell when they came into contact with the new ecology. This mentality is very undesirable. Complaining is one of the most negative manifestations. Don't be a slave to emotions. In the eyes of many people I have seen, there is only cutting meat and being cut meat, only short-term games, and only stopping when you see good. What I said may make many people feel stinging, but this is the fact. When the bull market comes, they are often caught off guard and are left with only confusion. We have to calm down because we are long-term players. We are all like-minded people. The pullback in the bull market is not a risk for us, but an opportunity. You must understand this truth deeply. Several friends came to ask me how to analyze the trend. After I explained this truth to them, they all felt much more at ease. They covered their positions when they should, and slept when they should, instead of staring at the market nervously. In the bull market, it is necessary to minimize operations, and mentality is crucial. I would like to share my mentality: if it goes up, I will be very happy, because it proves that my decision is correct; if it goes down, I will be even happier, because I can get cheaper chips. I am very happy that all the friends in the group can have such a consensus. I believe that they are people who can make huge profits because they have the mentality and cognition to make big money. If you can't persist, feel uncomfortable when you encounter a pullback, or even panic and sell, then maybe you need an atmosphere and a group of people with common cognition to accompany you, so that you can go further and hold longer. Stop complaining, summarize your experience, and think deeply about your underlying logic. As long as you are on the right path

The reasons why altcoins cannot rise may be as follows:

1. Declining market capitalization: Bitcoin currently accounts for more than 53% of the market capitalization, while the total market capitalization of altcoins accounts for only a little over 1% of the total market value. Compared with the peak of the bull market in 2021, the market capitalization growth is limited.

2. Peak unlocking period: The altcoin market is about to usher in the peak unlocking period, and the amount of funds required to be invested is very large, which may put some pressure on the market.

3. Adjustment of investment strategy: As the situation in the altcoin market has changed, investors need to adjust their investment strategies accordingly. In this case, investors should pay more attention to mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin, and also pay attention to diversification of investments to reduce risks.

In general, the reasons why the altcoin market cannot rise may be related to the decline in market capitalization, the peak unlocking period, and the adjustment of investors' investment strategies. Investors need to pay close attention to market dynamics and adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner to cope with market changes.

"Brother Sun and the Cryptocurrency Circle"

History is always full of coincidences. A great god has made statistics on Brother Sun's deeds.

In 2017, Brother Sun announced the launch of ICO, and then all ICOs were withdrawn; in 2018, he launched IEO, and then the IEO sector plummeted; after lunch with Buffett, the cryptocurrency circle also plummeted within 1 month. In 2020, he took advantage of the DeFi hotspot, causing the relevant tokens to fall on the day of launch; in 2021, Twitter preheated important news, and the next day the altcoin fell sharply; after the pre-sale of its horse racing was completed, Farm World and Chain Games collectively dived. In May 2022, the stablecoin USDD was launched, and the stablecoin UST was decoupled soon after; in June, the exchange was announced, and Tiger Fu was subsequently unable to withdraw cash; in October, the official announcement took over Huobi, and the next month FTX exploded and went bankrupt. In 2023, his entry actions have repeatedly triggered market changes. In February, he announced his entry into AI, and AI collapsed; after running into LSD, the LSD track collapsed; in May, he announced his entry into meme coins, and the sector died. Recently, he bought a large amount of ETH near 3k US dollars. How will it go in the future? It is curious.

These actions of Sun Ge have triggered many changes in the market, and every move of his has attracted much attention. In the future, what kind of impact will he bring to the market? Let us wait and see.

Predicting the upcoming Ethereum market, the following is read according to the timeline. Please forgive me if the order is deviated: V God suddenly visited the Hong Kong conference; there was news that Hong Kong would pass the Ethereum ETF; Sun Ge hoarded ETH; Hong Kong officially passed the Ethereum ETF; Grayscale submitted an application for a mini Ethereum ETF, and BlackRock updated the application file. For a time, all kinds of news about ETFs were flying around, with the same plot and the same script. Although we have no inside information, as long as we pay a little attention and connect various types of information together, we can always smell a different taste.

Bitcoin fell from a high yesterday, and the daily line closed with a medium-sized Yin line, and the overall situation is in a state of retracement. However, we still consider going long at the support level below during the day. The adjustment here may just be a second accumulation of momentum on the way up. As for whether it will eventually return to a strong state, or break the expected downward position and turn weak, that is another story. Before the correction expectation is not denied, we will operate in a roundabout way according to the range. #大盘走势

The current market is complex and full of variables. Bitcoin has repeatedly risen in the callback, and the lows have been continuously consolidated and improved. The rise of altcoins is led by PEPE in the MEME sector. Next, it may be the turn of SSV in the Ethereum pledge sector, YGG in the game sector, and ONDO in the Rwa sector. The leaders of these sectors have risen significantly. Other countries are expected to follow suit and launch ETFs in May. Now it is obviously in the stage of ETF scramble. Ethereum below 3,000 is a diamond bottom. Today, ETH rebounds more strongly than BTC. The altcoin season is coming, and everyone should hold on to their chips. The worst case scenario may be to continue to fluctuate nearby for one or two months, but we must insist on low-absorption and fixed investment. At present, the positive impact of interest rate cuts and the expectation of the presidential election have not been fully released. The main rising wave bull market is accumulating power, and the main rising wave after halving is the most anticipated.

Let's talk about the current market situation.
First of all, we need to know that although the halving event has ended, the market's reaction is quite flat and calm.
Secondly, the interest rate cut plan has also been postponed. The three interest rate cuts originally planned for this year may now be reduced to
two. This shows that the policy remains stable.
The fatigue of the US stock market has gradually intensified, and the pressure of the correction has increased, which makes people start to wonder: Will the bull market really end? The answer is still difficult to determine. However, from the perspective of the boosting effect of ETFs, it is obvious that it is gradually weakening. Recently, many novices have taken over billions of chips at a high of
66,000-74,000, and the market is facing a test.
So, in this case, how should we view the market?
The optimists believe that the current situation is just an adjustment stage of the bull market, and it is expected that around 2025, the market is expected to reach a new high of
100,000 to 200,000. They believe that altcoins still have huge room for growth and great appreciation potential.
The pessimists believe that the bear market has quietly begun. They pointed out that there is a lack of new hype at present, ETF and halving effects have already appeared, and new funds are not willing to enter the market. In addition, many investors were previously trapped at high levels, and the market trend also showed signs of fatigue. In short, in such an environment, we need to remain cautious, pay close attention to market dynamics, and make decisions based on our own situation.

BTC
Long at current price, cover position at 65900, target 66800-69000, defense at 65300

Big Pancake: Yesterday morning, the market first fluctuated back to around 64500 to confirm support and then rebounded upward. It reached a high of around 66800 at night. The market did not continue for too long and was under pressure to fluctuate downward. Now the market is running steadily around 66300. From the hourly line, the tug-of-war between yin and yang and the step-by-step upward trend show that the bulls are obviously stronger. The morning's high was blocked near 67200. The continuity of the bulls also needs to accumulate strength. The overall support is around 65100.