Carolynn Splawn rko1

What will be the trend of PIPPIN？
#PIPPIN

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What impact does Japan's🇯🇵 interest rate hike have on Bitcoin?
#BTC

Since 2024, every time the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, Bitcoin has experienced significant declines ranging from 20% to 31%. For example, the interest rate hikes in March 2024, July 2024, and January 2025 led to Bitcoin dropping approximately 23%, 26%, and 31%, respectively. This correlation stems from the reversal of yen carry trade: investors borrow low-interest yen to invest in risk assets like Bitcoin. An interest rate hike increases financing costs and triggers forced liquidations, exacerbating liquidity pressure.

Currently, the market widely expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75% on December 19, 2025, with a probability exceeding 80%. If the hike occurs as anticipated, Bitcoin may face short-term downward pressure. Technical analysis suggests that the area around $70,000 may become a key support level, and if broken, further pullback targets may point towards the $67,700 region. It is important to note that some of the decline may have already been reflected in the price, as Bitcoin has already dropped before the interest rate hike.

Technical weakness: Bitcoin has recently shown a 'bear flag pattern', with dense resistance levels (such as $91,000-$94,000). If it breaks below the support range, it may accelerate the decline.

If the interest rate hike meets expectations and the central bank releases dovish signals, there may be a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' rebound opportunity, although the probability is low.

Overall, the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike is likely to suppress Bitcoin's performance in the short term, but the long-term trend still depends on macro fundamentals and the evolution of market sentiment.

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