尤槿论金

12.18 Gold Morning Review: The overnight pullback has come true as expected, and the intraday bullish layout relies on support.

In the early hours, we clearly indicated that the gold market would experience a reversal. After reaching a high of 4375, the gold price accurately surged and then fell back, with the trend completely in line with expectations.

On the fundamental side, the U.S. November unadjusted core CPI year-on-year recorded 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021. This unexpected data opens up space for the Federal Reserve to further cut interest rates; the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, and officials stated that the rate-cutting cycle is likely over; the Bank of England, on schedule, lowered the benchmark interest rate from 4.00% to 3.75%, with Governor Bailey emphasizing that the pace of future rate cuts will slow down.

Today, we need to focus on the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. The market expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, potentially breaking the 0.5% mark for the first time in 20 years. Due to this expectation, there is a possibility of further pullback in gold prices.

On the market, gold is currently still in a high-level oscillation pattern. The surge and fall back from 4375 is a typical characteristic of oscillation markets, and whether it can break new highs remains uncertain. However, we believe that the short-term pullback influenced by the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike expectations will be a buildup for a second surge. In terms of operation, we continue to adhere to a strategy of primarily bullish positions with some bearish positions as a supplement.

Specific operational advice: Wait for the gold price to pull back to the 4310-4320 range, and confirm a stop-loss signal before laying out long positions. Avoid blindly chasing the rise, and seize market opportunities with a proactive strategy. $BTC

12.18 You Jin Bai Yin Early Market Analysis

From a technical structure perspective, the weekly level of the target recorded a long lower shadow bullish candlestick, which forms a strong support zone, providing technical endorsement for the medium-term bullish trend. In the 1-hour cycle, the rising trend structure that started from the low point of 62.14 is complete; the current price retreating to 65.99 is a technical correction following the gold trend and has not damaged the overall bullish pattern.

In terms of key price level games, the lower level of 65.85 is a short-term bull-bear dividing line, and the stability of this position will determine the strength of the intraday rebound; the upper level of 66.15 is a resistance level from previous highs, if effectively broken, the upward space can further open up to the range of 66.3-66.5, with the rhythm of support and resistance games clearly distinguishable.

Indicators and capital signals show that in the 1-hour chart, the range of 65.85-65.90 has shown obvious signs of capital support, with buying strength beginning to accumulate; at the same time, the MACD indicator operates above the zero axis. Although the red bars have decreased in volume, no death cross has formed, indicating that bullish momentum has not yet exhausted, further confirming the technical logic of low bullish layout.

Specific operational strategy

• Entry range: 65.5-65.8 light position layout for long positions

• Stop-loss defense: 65.0 (if effectively broken below, abandon the bullish idea)

• Target price: First target 66.5, second target 66.8. $BTC

December 18th Yu Jin's Gold Morning Analysis.

On December 18th, the gold market continued to show a relatively strong oscillation pattern. London gold is currently quoted at $4352.68 per ounce, with a slight increase of 0.82% for the day; Gold T+D and Shanghai Gold main contract both rose, quoted at 981.5 yuan/gram (+0.55%) and 986.82 yuan/gram (+0.61%) respectively. Expectations for interest rate cuts, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risk aversion have formed strong support, but the accumulation of overbought pressure along with macro data disturbances requires caution regarding the risk of market corrections.

From a key price level perspective, the short-term support range for international gold prices is 4315-4330 dollars, with resistance above at 4360-4395 dollars. If it can stabilize above the 4365 dollar mark, gold prices are expected to attempt an assault on the 4395-4400 dollar range. The core logic driving gold prices upwards is clear: the Federal Reserve's expectations of interest rate cuts are suppressing the dollar and real interest rates, significantly reducing the cost of holding gold; global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, laying a solid demand foundation for gold prices; ongoing geopolitical conflicts in places like the U.S. and Russia-Ukraine are continuously generating increased safe-haven buying. However, upcoming U.S. CPI, non-farm payrolls, and other core data will become important variables for the market, and if the data performs better than expected, it may weaken market bets on interest rate cuts, triggering concentrated profit-taking.

The technical aspect shows a multi-cycle differentiation characteristic: the daily level bullish trend is solid, the moving average system forms effective support, the MACD golden cross continues above the zero axis, and the RSI indicator is neutrally biased strong, requiring caution against overbought pullback risks; the four-hour level Bollinger Bands are narrowing and leveling off, the MACD death cross is gradually converging, and the RSI indicator has retreated from the overbought range, showing some signs of pullback pressure; the hourly level trend is relatively strong, with the Bollinger Bands opening upwards, the MACD golden cross is expanding in operation, and short-term bulls dominate.

Specific operation recommendations

Gold retracement to the 4330-4340 dollar range can be lightly bought, targeting 4365-4395 dollars; if the target range is broken with volume, it is likely to refresh historical highs; if the market fails to continue its upward momentum, a light short position can be taken. $BTC

特朗普加码制裁委内瑞拉，布油短线反弹迎地缘变数

地缘政治风波再度搅动国际原油市场。当地时间12月16日，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体宣布重大制裁升级：正式将委内瑞拉马杜罗政权定性为“外国恐怖组织”，并下令对所有进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮实施“全面彻底的封锁”，此举被外界视为美国对委施压的又一强硬举措，直接引发市场对全球原油供应端的担忧情绪。

回溯近期美委博弈脉络，此次制裁升级并非突发。12月10日，美军已在委内瑞拉附近海域扣押一艘涉嫌运输委、伊制裁石油的油轮，美国财政部随后于11日更新制裁名单，新增6艘油轮为制裁对象；而早在11月底，特朗普就曾威胁可能对委内瑞拉“毒贩”实施陆路打击，美军“杰拉尔德·R·福特”号航母打击群也已部署至加勒比海域，一系列动作持续加剧地区紧张局势。此次将委政权列为“外国恐怖组织”并封锁油轮，进一步升级了制裁力度，特朗普甚至宣称委内瑞拉已被“南美洲历史上规模最大的舰队团团围住”，且舰队规模还将继续扩大，地缘风险的急剧升温直接传导至原油市场。

受此消息刺激，此前持续走弱的布伦特原油期货短线迎来触底反弹。截至12月16日交易时段，布伦特原油从58.72美元/桶的日内低点快速回升，最高触及59.60美元/桶，最终收于58.92美元/桶，尽管当日整体仍录得2.71%的跌幅，但短线反弹幅度显著，日内最大反弹幅度达1.5%，凸显地缘消息对市场情绪的短期提振作用。技术面来看，MACD指标红柱呈现扩张态势，KDJ指标低位形成金叉后向上发散，均显示短期多头动能正在回暖，为油价提供了一定的技术面支撑。$BTC

在金融交易的战场里，你总会猝不及防撞上非农数据公布后的跳空行情，K线直上直下的走势打得人措手不及；也会在苦苦坚守的支撑位突然告破时陷入手足无措，看着持仓的浮亏数字不断跳动却不知如何是好；更会攥着套牢的单子，盯着屏幕上的K线从黄昏熬到凌晨，眼里满是焦虑与不甘；还会因为一念之差的犹豫，眼睁睁错过本该稳稳抓在手里的盈利行情，徒留满心懊悔。

但这些狼狈的“困境”，从来都不是交易生涯的终点。你曾经因为盲目扛单亏掉的仓位，只要跟着林锐泽把市场底层逻辑捋顺、把进场离场的关键点位卡准，在下一轮行情里，就能凭借清晰的判断加倍赢回来。

要知道，市场不会永远走单边行情，就像人生不会一直困在低谷。那些你盯着K线熬过的每一个漫漫长夜，那些你对着支撑阻力反复测算的每一个关键点位，都不是无用的消耗，而是在为“顺势盈利”默默铺路。今天没抓住的行情，明天还会卷土重来；这次没扛过去的剧烈波动，下次你就能稳稳站稳脚跟。

交易要稳，心态更要稳。别被一时的盈亏乱了阵脚，慢慢来，不急。

12.17尤槿午间黄金分析

从近期盘面特征来看，市场节奏呈现较明显的规律：亚盘往往出现一波定向波动，欧盘多以区间震荡为主，而美盘时段则频繁出现转折行情，形成“亚盘动、欧盘盘、美盘变”的循环模式，今日仍需关注这一节奏是否延续。

操作上，日内建议继续以震荡思路应对，关注先回调后反弹的节奏。目前早盘已上探4339.85附近压力（伦敦金现最新高位），该位置可视为日内首要阻力，适宜先观察承压回落情况。下方支撑重点关注4300整数关口，其次是4285区域（日线MA5支撑位），进一步支撑看4260一线（近期回调关键支撑）。若欧盘前后回落至支撑区域且呈现企稳信号，可考虑布局多单，博弈美盘时段可能出现的反弹行情，上方进阶阻力关注4350-4353区域（近期高位密集区），强阻力参考历史高位4381附近。$BTC

12.17尤槿黄金早盘分析

昨日现货黄金走势呈现宽幅震荡格局，在美联储降息预期升温与美元汇率波动的双重驱动下，金价一度冲高至4352附近，距上周五创下的逾七周高点仅一步之遥。不过，随着美国官员与乌克兰总统泽连斯基的和谈取得实质性进展，市场避险情绪快速退潮，金价大幅回吐日内多数涨幅，最终仅以0.1%的微弱涨幅收官，报4304.91。

当前，全球交易员目光聚焦于即将发布的美国重磅就业数据，这份数据的表现将成为判断美联储后续货币政策走向的核心依据。截至周二（12月16日）亚市早盘，现货黄金维持震荡微涨态势，最新交投于4350.92一线。

从技术面来看，金价突破对称三角形整理形态后延续上行节奏，整体技术格局偏多。上方阻力方面，4350附近构成短期关键压制，若该位置被有效突破，金价有望向4381的历史峰值发起冲击。下方支撑上，此前的突破颈线位4250已转化为首要支撑关口，其次是4233处的50周期简单移动平均线（SMA）；若金价进一步下探，4180-4170区间大概率会吸引买盘力量入场。

动量指标显示，相对强弱指数（RSI）从接近80的超买区间回落至50上方，上涨动能有所衰减；ADX指标数值徘徊在20-25区间，反映当前行情趋势强度不足，市场正处于震荡蓄势阶段，尚未形成明确的单边强势行情。

操作建议：可在4295-4305区间逢低做多，目标看向4325-4355。若金价在目标区间带量突破，有望打开进一步上行空间；若未能延续涨势，则可轻仓反手做空。

风险提示：以上分析仅供参考，投资有风险，交易需以实盘走势为准。$BTC $ETH

Gold short-term pullback! Non-farm data ignites the market tonight, the bull-bear showdown looks here

On Tuesday, gold in the Asian market directly plummeted, at one point falling below the $4300 mark, now fluctuating around $4285, a decline of 0.5%!

In the end, it’s still the futures traders taking profits, weak bulls closing positions that caused the sell-off, plus positive news from the Ukraine peace talks cooling risk aversion, which has led to a decline in gold demand.

But don’t be too quick to turn bearish! The Federal Reserve's third interest rate cut this year has landed, and it has signaled continued rate cuts in 2026, significantly lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold, which is a strong support. However, the easing of geopolitical risks will also put pressure on gold prices to rise.

Tonight is the main event! The U.S. non-farm payroll report, retail sales, and PMI data will bombard the market, which are key clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. If the employment data is weak, expectations for rate cuts will rise, and gold is likely to soar; on the contrary, gold prices may face selling pressure again.

Looking at the technical side: the overall trend remains bullish, with prices far above the 100-day EMA, the four-hour Bollinger Bands are opening, and the RSI is stabilizing at the midline, with short-term bullish momentum increasing.
Resistance above is initially seen at $4350, breaking through will target $4365 and $4381 historical highs; support below is focused on $4285, if broken, look at $4257, and further down is the key level of $4210 at the 100-day EMA.

In summary, gold is experiencing increased short-term volatility, with a positive long-term trend, and tonight's non-farm report is the "steering wheel" of the market! For those who are unsure, let’s discuss real-time strategies together to pinpoint accurate levels! #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC

12.16尤槿早间白银思路

非农数据对白银价格或存短期扰动，但美联储宽松周期的大方向并未改变，白银金融属性的利多逻辑根基稳固。全球工业需求回暖叠加地缘避险情绪的双重支撑犹在，短期获利了结行为与美联储内部鹰派分歧，仅会引发价格短暂回调，难以扭转中长期上行趋势；且市场低位资金承接信号明确，为多头后续发力筑牢基础。

技术面来看，1小时图级别中，自60.79低点开启的反弹趋势完好无损，当前价格63.71运行于前期高点64.65下方，属于典型的蓄力整理阶段。此轮高位震荡是对前期涨幅的消化，而非趋势反转信号，中长期上升通道保持完整。

指标层面进一步验证多头动能，1小时图63.0-63.5区间持续出现资金承接痕迹；MACD指标运行于零轴上方，红柱虽有缩量但未形成死叉，多头优势未被破坏；MA均线系统维持多头排列形态，空头抛压已逐步释放，多头正积蓄动能等待突破前高。

操作建议

• 进场点位：62.9-63.5区间轻仓布局多单

• 止损防守：62.5

• 目标价位：第一目标64.0，第二目标65.0

12.15尤槿黄金早盘分析
新的一周，各位投资者早上好！

回顾上周五行情，黄金走出剧烈“过山车”走势，价格快速冲高至4353一线后，午夜时段急转直下，最低下探至4257一线，单日振幅超百美金，最终收于4300关键关口，多空博弈异常激烈。

从收盘格局研判，黄金多头趋势并未动摇，本周整体将延续冲高节奏。技术面趋势延续性与国际消息面利好形成共振，中期上行方向明确。

核心交易策略：始终坚守回落做多原则，顺应市场主趋势布局，严禁逆势追空。

• 支撑区间：重点关注4290-4296，回踩该区间不破即为绝佳做多契机。

• 目标区间：4330-4340$BTC $ETH

Silver skyrockets, crushing gold! The threefold resonance of 'finance + industry + supply and demand' reveals the core logic of this market trend!

In the precious metals market of 2025, silver has completely shaken off the tag of being a 'shadow asset' of gold, entering a wave of explosive growth. As of December 10, the spot silver price in London has first crossed the $60 per ounce mark, with an increase of over 100% from the beginning of the year, while the same period saw an increase of only about 27% for spot gold in London, crowning silver as the 'leader of precious metals' with nearly four times the growth of gold. The domestic market has also erupted synchronously, with the main contract for Shanghai silver futures breaking through the 13,000 yuan per kilogram mark, achieving a year-to-date increase of 92.8%, setting a new high since its listing. This wave of growth is by no means a short-term speculative hype, but a threefold resonance of 'financial attributes igniting + industrial demand exploding + supply and demand structure imbalance', with a clear core logic and solid support!

1. Financial attributes as the main engine: interest rate cut expectations + valuation recovery, funds pouring in wildly

The financial attributes of silver are the core driving force behind this round of explosive growth, with its sensitivity to macro policies even far exceeding that of gold:

• Interest rate cut expectations directly ignite the market: the market's expectation of an 80% probability for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, coupled with a 10.3% decline in the US dollar index this year and sustained pressure on US Treasury yields, has led to a frenzy of buying for silver as a non-yielding asset, driven by its value as a safe haven and inflation hedge. Global funds are accelerating their inflow, with total holdings of COMEX silver futures and options up 35.08% from the beginning of the year, while the trading volume of domestic Shanghai silver futures has skyrocketed by 847.66%, with bulls pushing the market into a squeeze.

• Market characteristics amplify explosive power: Compared to gold, the silver market is smaller and more concentrated in liquidity, with stronger speculative attributes. This characteristic causes silver to react more violently to interest rate changes; once funds enter the market, the increase can quickly reach its limit, ultimately achieving a 'crushing' rise against gold.

• Gold-silver ratio repair boosts further gains: In 2024, the gold-silver ratio briefly soared to a historical high of 120:1, severely undervaluing silver; as of December 3, this ratio has fallen back to 46.7:1. Although returning to a rational range, there is still room for further repair, becoming a key driver for boosting silver. #比特币VS代币化黄金

The Federal Reserve's dovish meeting this time has released a clear signal of easing, providing strong and multidimensional bullish support for gold prices. The specific impacts can be analyzed from the following two dimensions:

1. Direct Drivers: Rate cuts combined with the initiation of bond purchases put downward pressure on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields.

1. The continuation of the easing cycle enhances the attractiveness of non-interest assets: This rate cut of 25 basis points marks the third consecutive meeting with a rate cut. Although some committee members prefer to keep rates unchanged, the direction of policy easing is clear. The drop in rates directly weakens the yield characteristics of the dollar, and U.S. Treasury yields decline in tandem, resulting in a significant reduction in the holding costs of gold, which is a typical non-interest asset, and a notable increase in the willingness to allocate funds.

2. Liquidity injection further weakens the dollar's status: The Federal Reserve announced that starting from December 12, it will implement a $40 billion Treasury bill purchase plan within 30 days. This move is equivalent to releasing a large amount of liquidity into the market, further diluting the dollar's dual advantages of 'safe haven + yield' and indirectly raising the allocation value and market demand for gold.

2. Medium-term Support: The combination of interest rate outlook and economic inflation solidifies gold's dual core attributes.

1. The interest rate path is clear, and the mid-term upward logic is solid: The dot plot maintains expectations for one rate cut in the next two years, releasing a clear signal that policy will not quickly shift to tightening. The mid-term upward logic of gold relying on the easing monetary cycle remains intact.

2. The contradiction between economic inflation boosts gold demand in both directions.

◦ Economic Aspect: The Federal Reserve has raised its GDP growth forecast for the next three years but simultaneously emphasized the high uncertainty in the economic outlook and the ongoing rise in employment downward risks. The market's concerns about economic growth will activate gold's safe-haven attributes, attracting safe-haven funds to enter the market.

◦ Inflation Aspect: The Federal Reserve acknowledges that current inflation remains high while lowering next year's inflation expectations. This combination preserves gold's anti-inflation value while alleviating market concerns about 'high inflation forcing rate hikes,' forming a moderate bullish support for gold.

In the short term, the intensive easing signals released from this meeting will directly drive gold to continue its bullish trend after breaking through $4230; from a medium-term perspective, the continuation of the policy easing cycle, the uncertainty in the economic outlook, and a moderate inflation environment will collectively enhance gold's three attributes of safe haven, anti-inflation, and non-interest assets. #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut ignites the market! Gold violently surges to a new high, silver breaks historical records!

　　The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday (December 10) local time that it would lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%, in line with general market expectations. However, after the decision was announced, the US dollar index fell sharply, hitting a low of 98.59, a new low in a month and a half, closing at 98.65, a decline of about 0.6%, recording the largest single-day drop in nearly three months; the 10-year US Treasury yield also fell by 0.88 percentage points to 4.192%, marking the largest single-day decline in a month and a half.

　　Against the backdrop of a weakening dollar and US Treasury yields, spot gold quickly recovered from early losses, rebounding strongly after dipping to around 4182, reaching a high of 4238.59, a new high in nearly three trading days, and finally closing at 4228.47, with a single-day increase of about 0.5%. Spot silver performed even more brilliantly, breaking and stabilizing above the $61 level, reaching a high of $61.92 per ounce, breaking historical records, with a cumulative increase of up to 113% this year. On Thursday (December 11), in the early Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly, currently trading around 4240.

　　Looking at the technical side, on the 4-hour chart, gold prices previously broke below the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, testing the support at 4170, with MACD's death cross releasing bearish momentum. However, the bulls made a strong counterattack in the US session, with MACD's dual lines hovering near the zero axis, temporarily balancing the bulls and bears, and with the favorable effects of the interest rate cut being digested, buying interest warmed up, stabilizing gold prices!

　　As for the daily chart, it's needless to say, gold prices have been steadily oscillating above 4200, with the short-term moving averages flattening, and MACD's dual lines converging, a typical accumulation pattern before a big market trend! Moreover, gold prices have consistently remained above most short-term moving averages, with lows gradually rising, indicating a strong consolidation, not a trend reversal; the next uptrend is the main theme!

　　Therefore, on Thursday, continue to rely on the levels of 4206-4200 and 4190 for phased long positions, with targets set at the higher points of 4250-4260;

　　(Kind reminder: The above suggestions are for reference only, trading risks are borne by the trader; the above strategies and analyses do not have timeliness; for more real-time short-term strategies, ultra-short-term strategies, medium to long-term strategies/risk control plans/trading plan customization, please join my practical department to obtain them) #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH

Golden afternoon probing met resistance, reaching the location of Dandan's entry mentioned in our text, successfully holding the 4200 line and starting to rebound, with more than 10 points of space #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH

12.10 Silver Analysis

The overnight precious metals market welcomed a strong trend, with the world's largest silver ETF increasing its holdings by 84.62 tons, becoming a core driving force. International silver prices have broken through the key $60 level, with a daily increase of over 4%, leading the precious metals sector. Platinum and palladium also rose by 2%, forming a correlated upward trend in the sector.

It is worth noting that the current volatility of silver has surged to three times the historical level, and market trading sentiment has become increasingly 'nervous.' In the short term, the strong push from funds combined with technical breakthroughs may drive silver into a high-volatility cycle, with daily fluctuations of over 5% becoming the norm, and even the possibility of extreme conditions with a single-day increase of 10%, necessitating caution regarding volatility risks in trading.

Compared to silver's sharp rise, gold is currently in a phase of consolidation and preparation, adopting a posture of 'waiting for a catalyst.' Tonight, the market focus will be on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut. From a policy perspective, the selection of the next Federal Reserve chair is leaning towards the dovish camp, and this expectation will provide long-term upward support for gold prices.

It is important to clarify that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts are not the core logic of this round of the precious metals bull market; the process of de-dollarization is the main contradiction driving the trend. For tracking this main line, one can closely monitor the central bank's gold purchases, which is a core indicator— as long as global central banks continue to increase their precious metal reserves, the underlying support of the precious metals bull market will remain unshaken. The Federal Reserve's rate cuts and other liquidity easing policies are merely 'add-ons' on top of the main logic of the bull market, further amplifying the upward elasticity.

Additionally, the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut not only benefits the precious metals market but also positively impacts the A-share market. The accommodative global liquidity environment will lower market funding costs, inject incremental capital into the equity market, and help restore market risk appetite. #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH

12.10尤槿黄金早盘分析

黄金昨日探底4170后回升，日线收小阳并站稳MA10均线，整体维持布林带中上轨区间运行，多头态势初显。4小时图上，布林带初步收口，RSI指标在中轴位置止跌企稳，均线系统呈现粘合状态，短期多空博弈加剧；小时图则显示，价格反弹后布林带与均线系统同步向上发散，价格持续稳居中上轨区域，短期反弹动能较强。

技术面来看，前期调整尚未完全终结，多空交替格局仍在延续，但当前多头占据一定优势，日内操作建议以回调低多为主。需重点关注今日凌晨3点美联储利率决议及鲍威尔讲话，目前市场降息预期高达80%，若决议符合或超出预期，可能引发黄金价格大幅波动。
建议：
黄金可在4185-4195附近分批进多，目标看向4225，突破看4230。#比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH

Trading cryptocurrencies and gold, total losses? It turns out 90% of people have misunderstood the relationship between 'analysis' and 'trading'!\n\nIn these years of financial investment, I have finally figured out a key question: why do some people who don't understand the fundamentals still make a fortune? While I dig through industry chain data and piles of research reports, I still can't escape being trapped?\n\nThe answer is actually very simple: analysis and trading are fundamentally two different things; being biased in one will lead to losses!\n\nWhen I first entered the industry, the team emphasized every day that "mastering the fundamentals = mastering the market." I dove into research, digging from the upstream to the downstream of the industry chain, hoping to find the 'wealth code' that others hadn't discovered. I indeed made money with this approach, but watching my friends have only a vague understanding of the fundamentals yet steadily profit left me completely confused—was research useless?\n\nI later understood that investment returns are like a 'dual engine':\n\n• Analysis helps you improve your judgment accuracy, telling you 'whether to do it';\n\n• Trading helps you adjust the risk-reward ratio, teaching you 'how to do it'.\n\nFund management companies have long figured this out: researchers are responsible for finding direction and providing conclusions, while traders are responsible for designing strategies and executing buy-sell actions. Some focus on research, while others emphasize trading; there is no good or bad distinction, the key is not to confuse your own role!\n\nFor ordinary investors, we should be 'qualified traders' rather than 'perfect researchers'. Research reports can give you ideas, but they cannot make money for you—the real security comes from a complete plan for building positions, adding positions, reducing positions, and cutting positions. It's like playing chess; before making a move, you must think of all possible responses from your opponent, so that you won't panic when the market suddenly changes.\n\nNow the market is becoming increasingly volatile, even if you analyze the fundamentals clearly, a sudden piece of news can skew the market. How many people blindly followed the bullish analysis reports without any risk control, and ended up being severely punished by the market?\n\nRemember: analysis is the map that guides you, while trading is the boat that takes you across the river. Having only a map without a boat will still not get you to the other side! #比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH

12.9 You Jin Afternoon Gold Analysis
Today's gold market focuses on the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting, with the mainstream expectation being a rate cut of 25 basis points. However, attention must be paid to the **“hawkish rate cut”** risk—if the Federal Reserve emphasizes inflation stickiness and signals a pause in further rate cuts, it will likely exert pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, the ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine and increasing uncertainty in international trade policies provide strong safe-haven support for gold prices. Under the interplay of long and short factors, the short-term market is characterized by volatility.

• Support Range: First support at 4180-4185, this range has been confirmed as an effective support level through multiple recent retests; second support at 4170, which is the lifeline for short-term bulls.

• Resistance Range: First resistance at 4210-4215, a breakout here is expected to open up upward potential; strong resistance at 4240-4245, which is a key pressure point for the phase.
Before the Federal Reserve meeting concludes, gold prices are likely to maintain range-based fluctuations, and a breakout will require waiting for policy signals and Powell's speech guidance.

Intraday Short-term Trading Plan
Enter long positions in batches as prices fall to the 4173-4178 range, with a stop loss set at $4166 (strict exit if breaking the second support), targeting 4210-4220. Once the first resistance range is reached, consider reducing positions and observing.
#比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH

12.9尤槿黄金早盘分析

昨日晚间黄金触及4174低位后迅速反抽，现于4191上方震荡整理。一小时周期呈现下跌后的技术性修复特征，反转信号缺失，弱势格局未改。短周期均线空头排列结构未变，下行动能明显衰减，价格依托布林带下轨支撑企稳。上方关键阻力清晰：4201-4206（布林带中轨）、4221-4226（布林带上轨）；唯有站稳中轨且放量突破上轨，短期趋势方可转强。

量价表现显示，下跌缩量、下影线频现，低位承接力度渐增；但反弹无量，行情本质仍属修复性质。4191-4196若形成有效支撑，金价将试探4216-4221；若4179支撑告破，则下看4163-4169。当前市场处于下跌末端的震荡筑底阶段，短期方向待定，需等待突破信号。

操作建议：回落至4181-4187轻仓做多
止损：4172
目标：4216-4221 破位持有看至 4231-4251 12.9尤槿黄金早盘分析

昨日晚间黄金触及4174低位后迅速反抽，现于4191上方震荡整理。一小时周期呈现下跌后的技术性修复特征，反转信号缺失，弱势格局未改。短周期均线空头排列结构未变，下行动能明显衰减，价格依托布林带下轨支撑企稳。上方关键阻力清晰：4201-4206（布林带中轨）、4221-4226（布林带上轨）；唯有站稳中轨且放量突破上轨，短期趋势方可转强。

量价表现显示，下跌缩量、下影线频现，低位承接力度渐增；但反弹无量，行情本质仍属修复性质。4191-4196若形成有效支撑，金价将试探4216-4221；若4179支撑告破，则下看4163-4169。当前市场处于下跌末端的震荡筑底阶段，短期方向待定，需等待突破信号。

操作建议：回落至4181-4187轻仓做多
止损：4172
目标：4216-4221 破位持有看至 4231-4251
#比特币VS代币化黄金 $BTC $ETH