潇潇冷兵器
尊重趋势，技术永赚
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The next six months will be a year to witness history.
If you are also new to this circle (I got involved in October 2024), you may see trends beyond imagination.
If you are a long-term thinker, then Bitcoin is undoubtedly the most valuable and the only valuable asset in the crypto world. When looking at longer time periods, both positions in Bitcoin can be ideal entry points for spot purchases that can be held for years.
If you are also new to this circle (I got involved in October 2024), you may see trends beyond imagination.
If you are a long-term thinker, then Bitcoin is undoubtedly the most valuable and the only valuable asset in the crypto world. When looking at longer time periods, both positions in Bitcoin can be ideal entry points for spot purchases that can be held for years.
#BTC走势分析 Direction and point prediction are roughly correct, continue to hold the short position of the big pie without wavering. The next view is that after a wave of 5 declines is completed, it will be at the bottom. In the short term, there is an opportunity to go long at 745 here, of course, we also need to look at the structure and form. The best would be the daily resistance, which is the short position at 84 here. After more than two months of declining continuation, it has broken down, and below is the time period for the trend to be short. The short position was made at a competitor's exchange, and I can't send a picture.
Have you shorted?
#BTC走势分析
(Image 1) Daily level forecast; Reason: The closing direction is that the rebound from around 81 has ended around 98, which is relatively weak and has not reached 98. The upper 103 is even further away. During the decline, the support around 89 has not played a role, and the decline has been very smooth. The logic is that breaking through the support or OB at 89 here destroys the structure and starts a downward trend; The four purple bands are the support-resistance transition area, currently belonging to a small rebound during the decline, with a high probability of breaking through 90, moving upward to around 93-94, where it is also a place for medium-term short positions. The predicted downward path is not drawn casually; it is highly likely to proceed this way.
(Image 2) At the small level, there is a high probability of breaking above 90, which may be obstructed by the bearish OB at 91, pulling back to the 90 range. If it holds, it will still move upward to the bearish 4-hour OB at 93. Here, if a 15-minute level MSB appears, a short position can be taken. According to the daily level forecast, positions can be added or reduced at key locations. Breaking below 81 is a highly probable event, and there may even be a liquidation of long positions leading to a rapid drop followed by a consolidation and oscillation.
(Image 1) Daily level forecast; Reason: The closing direction is that the rebound from around 81 has ended around 98, which is relatively weak and has not reached 98. The upper 103 is even further away. During the decline, the support around 89 has not played a role, and the decline has been very smooth. The logic is that breaking through the support or OB at 89 here destroys the structure and starts a downward trend; The four purple bands are the support-resistance transition area, currently belonging to a small rebound during the decline, with a high probability of breaking through 90, moving upward to around 93-94, where it is also a place for medium-term short positions. The predicted downward path is not drawn casually; it is highly likely to proceed this way.
(Image 2) At the small level, there is a high probability of breaking above 90, which may be obstructed by the bearish OB at 91, pulling back to the 90 range. If it holds, it will still move upward to the bearish 4-hour OB at 93. Here, if a 15-minute level MSB appears, a short position can be taken. According to the daily level forecast, positions can be added or reduced at key locations. Breaking below 81 is a highly probable event, and there may even be a liquidation of long positions leading to a rapid drop followed by a consolidation and oscillation.
#BTC走势分析
(Image 1) Daily level forecast; Reason: The closing direction is that the rebound from around 81 has ended around 98, which is relatively weak and has not reached 98. The upper 103 is even further away. During the decline, the support around 89 has not played a role, and the decline has been very smooth. The logic is that breaking through the support or OB at 89 here destroys the structure and starts a downward trend; The four purple bands are the support-resistance transition area, currently belonging to a small rebound during the decline, with a high probability of breaking through 90, moving upward to around 93-94, where it is also a place for medium-term short positions. The predicted downward path is not drawn casually; it is highly likely to proceed this way.
(Image 2) At the small level, there is a high probability of breaking above 90, which may be obstructed by the bearish OB at 91, pulling back to the 90 range. If it holds, it will still move upward to the bearish 4-hour OB at 93. Here, if a 15-minute level MSB appears, a short position can be taken. According to the daily level forecast, positions can be added or reduced at key locations. Breaking below 81 is a highly probable event, and there may even be a liquidation of long positions leading to a rapid drop followed by a consolidation and oscillation.
(Image 1) Daily level forecast; Reason: The closing direction is that the rebound from around 81 has ended around 98, which is relatively weak and has not reached 98. The upper 103 is even further away. During the decline, the support around 89 has not played a role, and the decline has been very smooth. The logic is that breaking through the support or OB at 89 here destroys the structure and starts a downward trend; The four purple bands are the support-resistance transition area, currently belonging to a small rebound during the decline, with a high probability of breaking through 90, moving upward to around 93-94, where it is also a place for medium-term short positions. The predicted downward path is not drawn casually; it is highly likely to proceed this way.
(Image 2) At the small level, there is a high probability of breaking above 90, which may be obstructed by the bearish OB at 91, pulling back to the 90 range. If it holds, it will still move upward to the bearish 4-hour OB at 93. Here, if a 15-minute level MSB appears, a short position can be taken. According to the daily level forecast, positions can be added or reduced at key locations. Breaking below 81 is a highly probable event, and there may even be a liquidation of long positions leading to a rapid drop followed by a consolidation and oscillation.
If the OB here at 90 holds, and goes up to 100,000, mainstream coins and altcoins might have a wave of doomsday vehicles, altcoins like DOGE, and ETH, SOL, XRP might all have a chance to surge in the large range EQ;
So the three coins to focus on in the future are clear in structure, with clear take-profit and stop-loss.
So the three coins to focus on in the future are clear in structure, with clear take-profit and stop-loss.
#BTC走势分析 Major Trend Analysis:
(Chart 1) Daily level, 81 has still been a rebound, but it may go up to 100300 here and then start wave C.
(Chart 2) 4H level, looking at 4Hob here, if it holds, it will continue to oscillate upward to the EQ of the large range, which is around the 100k mark here. A small structural breakdown appears in 4Hob, go long, with a take profit at 100300;
(Chart 3) If it breaks below 4Hob, it will deteriorate, and a rebound will be short.
(Chart 1) Daily level, 81 has still been a rebound, but it may go up to 100300 here and then start wave C.
(Chart 2) 4H level, looking at 4Hob here, if it holds, it will continue to oscillate upward to the EQ of the large range, which is around the 100k mark here. A small structural breakdown appears in 4Hob, go long, with a take profit at 100300;
(Chart 3) If it breaks below 4Hob, it will deteriorate, and a rebound will be short.
#ONDO
(1) Daily chart breaks below the descending trendline, direction: long;
(2) 4H timeframe, 2B pattern or MSB, pullback to neckline or BK volume support, maintain long position:
(3) 1H timeframe, chock, wait for pullback to BK entry.
Stop-loss: below previous low
Take-profit: TP1: around 0.54, TP2: around 0.7
(1) Daily chart breaks below the descending trendline, direction: long;
(2) 4H timeframe, 2B pattern or MSB, pullback to neckline or BK volume support, maintain long position:
(3) 1H timeframe, chock, wait for pullback to BK entry.
Stop-loss: below previous low
Take-profit: TP1: around 0.54, TP2: around 0.7
Of course, there's another possibility—the classic scenario, where a spring occurs. This depends on whether the house's筹码 has been fully accumulated. Policies and news affecting information will all be used as tools by the house. With major negative news, it will drop and then spring; with positive news, it will consolidate and move upward. In short, 89 is worth going long, but manage position size and set a stop-loss.
#BTC It's been a while since the last update, today I'll share some thoughts.
Bitcoin didn't experience the anticipated spring, which isn't particularly surprising. A spring isn't necessarily mandatory, but the current direction is broadly in line with expectations.
From a Wyckoff accumulation perspective, we've already entered phase D: strong move appears, awaiting a pullback to around 90 on the 4H OB. We're currently waiting for a rebound to take a short position.
Short-term outlook: consolidation between 90 and 94, whether it's a converging triangle, bull flag, or other patterns, all serve as continuation of the uptrend. First target: around 99, second target: around 107.
Long-term outlook: my judgment is that it will peak around 107/108, then drop to 5-6. This is just a fantasy—let's see how the structure unfolds in reality.
Bitcoin didn't experience the anticipated spring, which isn't particularly surprising. A spring isn't necessarily mandatory, but the current direction is broadly in line with expectations.
From a Wyckoff accumulation perspective, we've already entered phase D: strong move appears, awaiting a pullback to around 90 on the 4H OB. We're currently waiting for a rebound to take a short position.
Short-term outlook: consolidation between 90 and 94, whether it's a converging triangle, bull flag, or other patterns, all serve as continuation of the uptrend. First target: around 99, second target: around 107.
Long-term outlook: my judgment is that it will peak around 107/108, then drop to 5-6. This is just a fantasy—let's see how the structure unfolds in reality.
#BTC It's been a while since the last update, today I'll share some thoughts.
Bitcoin didn't experience the anticipated spring, which isn't particularly surprising. A spring isn't necessarily mandatory, but the current direction is broadly in line with expectations.
From a Wyckoff accumulation perspective, we've already entered phase D: strong move appears, awaiting a pullback to around 90 on the 4H OB. We're currently waiting for a rebound to take a short position.
Short-term outlook: consolidation between 90 and 94, whether it's a converging triangle, bull flag, or other patterns, all serve as continuation of the uptrend. First target: around 99, second target: around 107.
Long-term outlook: my judgment is that it will peak around 107/108, then drop to 5-6. This is just a fantasy—let's see how the structure unfolds in reality.
Bitcoin didn't experience the anticipated spring, which isn't particularly surprising. A spring isn't necessarily mandatory, but the current direction is broadly in line with expectations.
From a Wyckoff accumulation perspective, we've already entered phase D: strong move appears, awaiting a pullback to around 90 on the 4H OB. We're currently waiting for a rebound to take a short position.
Short-term outlook: consolidation between 90 and 94, whether it's a converging triangle, bull flag, or other patterns, all serve as continuation of the uptrend. First target: around 99, second target: around 107.
Long-term outlook: my judgment is that it will peak around 107/108, then drop to 5-6. This is just a fantasy—let's see how the structure unfolds in reality.
Reject noise, including market noise and the influence of others
I'm really annoyed. Today in someone else's strategy group, I was influenced in my judgment. Several coins I was interested in reached the target price, but I didn't dare to short them. Following along caused me losses. Really damn... From now on, I will trust myself.
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