11.16 Bitcoin BTC Ethereum ETH today's latest trend prediction analysis and operational strategy The market is still digesting the economic data released after the U.S. government shutdown (such as the September non-farm payroll report) and the impact of Federal Reserve officials' hawkish stance on interest rate cuts, which has led some funds to remain on the sidelines. On-chain data shows that in the past week, approximately $1.77 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum flowed out of the exchange Binance. This usually indicates that investors are more inclined to move assets to private wallets for holding (HODL), thereby reducing the potential selling pressure in the market. Meanwhile, nearly $1.58 billion worth of stablecoins flowed into exchanges, which may represent a significant amount of capital waiting off-market for buying opportunities. The simultaneous occurrence of these two phenomena is a typical characteristic of the market being in the 'accumulation phase,' historically indicating a price rebound. Bitcoin Technical Analysis Current Position and Market Structure: Bitcoin's price is currently suppressed below the resistance zone of $98,100-$98,500 and fluctuates above the support range of $94,000-$96,000. Some analysts point out that the market has formed a 'triangle contraction' pattern, which usually indicates that a continuous trend is about to emerge, and based on recent performance, the likelihood of a downward breakout is relatively high. Key Technical Signals Moving Average System: The current price is below all major moving averages (such as the 5-day, 20-day, and 50-day moving averages), especially with the 20-day moving average around $107,005, forming a strong mid-term resistance. This pattern indicates that the short- to mid-term trend is still dominated by bears. Momentum Indicators: The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 39, which has neither entered the oversold zone to trigger a strong rebound nor is strong enough to confirm an upward trend, reflecting a lack of buying momentum in the market. Ethereum Technical Analysis Current Position and Market Structure: Ethereum's trend structure clearly shows typical bearish characteristics of 'lower highs and lower lows.' The current price is restricted between the resistance band of $3,230-$3,250 and the support band of $3,055-$3,100. Key Technical Signals Moving Average System: Similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum's various levels of moving averages (such as the 4-hour level EMA7/30/120) also exhibit a bearish arrangement, exerting layered pressure on the price. On the daily level, the moving average near $3,450 is the recent strong resistance.