#USJulyCPI&PPIDueThisWeek (Short Summary in English)
U.S. inflation data drops this week: July CPI on Wednesday (Aug 12) and PPI on Thursday (Aug 13). Consensus expects headline CPI to ease to 3.4% annually (from 3.5% in June) , core CPI at 2.5% . PPI is forecast at +0.1% month-over-month . This data comes after July's surprise job loss (23,000) which weakened the Fed's case for further hikes . If inflation cools, it supports a September rate pause . However, oil price volatility remains a wildcard . Markets currently price ~44-49% chance of a September hike .
The CFTC used emergency powers to order prediction market Kalshi to stay open, overriding New York's lawsuit that accused it of illegal gambling. New York seeks $36 billion in penalties. The core issue: whether Kalshi is a federal financial market or a state-regulated gambling platform. The CFTC has also sued 9 other states trying to block Kalshi. This order lets Kalshi operate temporarily while courts decide who has jurisdiction. The outcome will set a key precedent for U.S. prediction markets.
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Israel's military actions against Iran escalate: According to the latest reports, the Israeli military has dropped about 4,000 rounds of ammunition on Iran, destroying around 300 missile launchers. This move targets key facilities such as the headquarters of Iran's Supreme National Security Council and ballistic missile production bases.
This geopolitical conflict will have multiple impacts on the cryptocurrency market. First, risk aversion sentiment is rising. The tensions in the Middle East may prompt global investors to seek safety, pulling funds from high-risk assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies into gold or the US dollar, leading to a short-term crash in the crypto market.
Looking back at history, similar conflicts (such as the Russia-Ukraine war) have caused BTC prices to be halved at one point. Secondly, energy price fluctuations. As a major oil exporter, any disruption in Iran's supply would lead to a surge in oil prices, raising inflation expectations and increasing uncertainty in Federal Reserve policies, indirectly suppressing the recovery of the crypto market.
The DeFi and NFT sectors may be hit harder, facing liquidity tightening. However, on the positive side: Bitcoin's properties as 'digital gold' may attract safe-haven funds, with the potential for a rebound in the long term. But overall, market volatility will surge, and investors are advised to be cautious with leveraged trading and to pay attention to geopolitical news developments. #BTC走势分析 #ETH走势分析 $BTC