雷亦辉论势

A brief review of yesterday's market situation, the morning closing overall showed a bearish strong pattern probing the bottom support structure. The Bitcoin price intraday once fell back to around 86000 to stop the decline, which is also the support point we anticipated. Later in the evening, as the coin price surged back and broke through the 90000 mark, it all retraced, once again staging the 'Hua Men Incident', where the market retraced nearly 5000 points. The recent strategy has repeatedly mentioned two key levels: 86000 and 90000. These two support and resistance levels are the key resistance for short-term fluctuations. Today's breakout focus needs to pay attention to the key evening CPI trends.

From the current market perspective, the daily structure is still under pressure at the mid-track position, with prices pulling back from the high positions. The K-line has also formed a long upper shadow, and the Bollinger Bands are in a flat formation, indicating that the current market is still dominated by bears. Without further news as a driving force, if the price ratio fails to break through the key resistance level, there is still a possibility of further drops in the future. Additionally, looking at the smaller time frame of the four-hour chart, the price ratio retraced again to the previous upward channel's bottom and fell back under pressure, showing a situation of rapid rise followed by pressure and decline. The MACD fast and slow lines below the zero line again show a death cross, indicating that the current market is still dominated by bears. The important support line at the bottom, 85000, has not been further broken, and the short-term pullback should pay attention to the support building situation near 85000, then look at the range fluctuations.

Bitcoin can be lightly shorted in the range of 86500-86200, observing the situation of breaking 85000. Ethereum can be lightly shorted near 2850, observing near 2730. #BTC #ETH

Recently, the overall market has been in a fluctuating structure. Currently, Bitcoin has recovered to around 88000 under pressure, maintaining fluctuations around 87000 at midnight, and the market trend is still leaning towards a correction with attention to signals of bottom building. With Japan's interest rate hike almost a certainty, the subsequent market atmosphere will also lean towards bearishness.

The current market is showing a weak operational pattern and has entered a clear technical adjustment phase. On the daily chart, prices continue to be pressured in the lower Bollinger Bands area, with downward space gradually expanding, and the lower Bollinger Bands extending downward. It is crucial to pay attention to the breakout of the mid-band resistance for a bullish reversal to generate momentum for a secondary upward test. In the four-hour cycle, the three Bollinger Bands are showing a simultaneous downward trend, and the K-line remains below the mid-band without further testing, indicating that the mid-band is still the current resistance level. In early trading, we should maintain a short position at the mid-band.

Bitcoin can be shorted at 88000-88500, with a target around 86000. Ethereum can be shorted at 2960-2980, with a target around 2880. #BTC #ETH

#BTC #ETH Short-term rebound focus on the middle track position

After the closing on Monday, the early market surged sharply, recovering nearly 2000 points. However, the fact that the 90000 mark did not break indicates that the bulls have not gained such strong momentum in the short term, which also signifies that this round of retracement is inevitable. After the dip to 85000 in the early morning, some recovery has already been made, suggesting that any breakdown must be approached step by step rather than in a panic sell-off. Regarding real trading, we strictly followed our strategy in the early session, entering around 88500, adding positions near 89500, and completely exiting with a light position near 86000, which can be considered a small gain in the short term. Currently, having open positions is not scary; what is truly frightening is blind trading. When the market has not shown a clear direction, it is unwise to secretly accumulate positions.

From the current market situation, Bitcoin has formed a large bearish candle on the four-hour chart, with prices reaching the lower Bollinger Band. The previous gains have been retraced by more than half. Although the bearish momentum has slowed after touching the lower band, the downward momentum has not diminished with the slight rebound, and the overall trend remains within a consolidating downward range. On the hourly chart, two consecutive bearish candles have broken through previous support levels, and the bearish momentum continues to operate within a downward channel. This reflects that the market's oversold sentiment is continuing to accumulate, compounded by various moving average indicators showing a synchronized downward divergence, indicating the possibility of further price declines. However, considering that the current closing point is temporarily hindered by the important support at the 86000 level, there is still potential for a second rebound as corrective momentum. Therefore, in terms of trading strategy, a short-term long position can be considered in the early session to observe the current market's correction, which will help determine the long-term strategy based on the pressure from the second pullback channel.

Bitcoin can be bought near 86000, with short-term focus around 87500. Ethereum can be bought near 2900-2930, looking at around 3020 near #BTC #ETH .

A new week, a new beginning. Before the early trading session closes, there is a certain pullback. The weekly pattern has not allowed Bitcoin to stabilize above the 90,000 mark. In the short term, Bitcoin remains in a consolidation around 88,000, with the weekend not showing much volatility. In the near term, pay attention to the bottom support to focus on the subsequent market range.

From the market performance, Bitcoin's daily level recorded three consecutive bearish candles, probing down to the lower Bollinger Band. Although there was a cross star candlestick pattern for consolidation and repair, the market's downward trend has not reversed, and the overall pattern still remains under pressure. Switching to the four-hour cycle, after a brief stabilization at the middle Bollinger Band, the bulls failed to organize an effective counterattack, instead accelerating downward with four consecutive bearish candles, and the current price continues to stay close to the lower band. The moving averages and technical indicators are synchronized in a bearish arrangement, clearly indicating that there is still downward space below. Based on this, the morning operational strategy maintains a focus on shorting during rebounds, paying attention to the previous support at 86,000.

Bitcoin can be shorted in the range of 88,000-88,500, looking at around 86,500. Ethereum can be shorted in the range of 3,100-3,080, looking at around 2,980. #BTC #ETH

During the early morning period, the market opened a slow downward trend after weak consolidation. Bitcoin fell to a low of 83780, then recovered to around 85300 and fluctuated, pushing the price back up to around the key level of 86000 for consolidation; Ethereum maintained a weak fluctuation pattern in the evening, retracing to a low of around 2730 but failing to form an effective breakthrough, continuing to hover within this range, with overall volatility limited.

From the current market perspective, Bitcoin shows clear weak characteristics on the four-hour chart: after a rapid decline, the price stabilized at around 83786, followed by a technical correction with two consecutive bullish candles. Currently, it has rebounded to the key resistance level near 86800, still under pressure, indicating that the bearish dominant pattern remains unchanged. The short-term moving average system shows a standard bearish arrangement, with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands also moving downward, confirming that the current market is in a weak consolidation phase after a decline, not a trend reversal signal. On the hourly level, the Bollinger Bands are showing a converging pattern, with the three bands arranged horizontally, indicating a high probability of entering a narrow fluctuation correction period in the short term. The candlestick chart gained support at the lower band of the Bollinger Bands and gradually rose, attempting to test the upper pressure area, but the rebound process continues to be constrained by the key resistance range, limiting upward space. Although the MACD indicator formed a golden cross at a low level, the slope of the indicator is flat, indicating insufficient upward momentum. In the short term, there is still some space for continued fluctuation, with short-term bottom support around 85300, and if the daily closing price falls below this level, it would represent the next round of further adjustment.

Bitcoin can be shorted in the range of 86800-87200, with a focus on around 84700. Ethereum can be shorted near 2800-2820, with a focus on around 2730. #BTC #ETH $BTC $ETH

In the new month, the monthly line opening saw short positions increase as prices fell. In the early session, Bitcoin briefly dropped from a high of 91000 to around 86000, where it stopped declining. Overall, the market is still testing the key Fibonacci support level of this round of corrections. It is still too early to see if further deep adjustments will occur. Ethereum is moving in sync with Bitcoin, briefly retracing to around 2800 without further breaking down, maintaining key support levels during these corrections. The current market still feels like a heavy bullish sentiment, resembling a washout. We set up long positions for Bitcoin in the morning as well, but exited with a stop loss at 89000, resulting in a loss of over 1000 points. Ethereum's long position was also exited after breaking below 2950 near 3000. The loss is indeed unfortunate, and we must acknowledge our mistakes, but fortunately, previous medium to long-term long positions had sufficient profits. After the loss, we are looking for opportunities to continue trading. Currently, we are testing key support levels, and the future outlook still favors a low-long strategy.

From the current chart perspective, the daily candlestick chart consistently operates between the middle and lower bands. After the early session closed, short positions continued to increase, retracing nearly 3000 points, which has completely reversed recent gains. However, after the price retraced to key support levels, it did not break down. Therefore, the focus should be on whether the key evening US stock market opening can provide a second chance for bulls to attack and create a second test in the high-fluctuation range. Looking at the four-hour chart, the retracement following two large bearish candles has opened the Bollinger Bands, and the RSI indicator has entered an oversold range. The future needs to determine whether the support level around 86000, established after previous bottoming, can be maintained to plan long positions. In the short term, I still have a positive outlook on the market adjustments, expecting it to return to the fluctuation range after key support and resistance levels are established. In the short term, I still favor adjustments after a deep retracement.

Bitcoin can be bought around 86000, targeting near 88000. Ethereum can be bought around 2800, targeting near 2930. #BTC #ETH

After the adjustments over the weekend, the overall market rebounded after testing the 90000 mark, with bullish forces re-emerging on Sunday night. However, it did not break through the short-term resistance level around 92000. In the short term, the market is expected to experience a certain pullback, and Bitcoin has once again dropped to around 91000 for consolidation, showing no further signs of weakness. Ethereum is following a similar pattern to Bitcoin, with the market pullback not breaking below the 3000 mark. The pullback over the weekend also indicates some signs of bottoming, suggesting that the current market is strong for bulls, and the strategy of maintaining a low long position remains unchanged.

From the daily chart of Bitcoin, the two days over the weekend formed a cross-star candlestick pattern for adjustment. Looking at the short term, the market rebound did not break through the momentum of the middle track, but instead continued to oscillate further below the middle track. However, the current structure of bullish recovery in the short term has not been further broken, and whether the key resistance can support again becomes particularly important. Combining with the four-hour chart, the weak trading volume over the weekend led to further contraction of the Bollinger Bands, indicating that the market is entering a new round of directional choice. The lower track closed around 90000, and after the weekend adjustment at the 90000 mark, the rebound makes the lower track support more evident. Currently, the price has pulled back to around 90000, which highlights the recovery of bulls in the future market. The outlook remains bullish.

Bitcoin can be bought in the 90000-90500 range, looking at around 92500. Ethereum can be bought in the 2970-3000 range, looking at around 3100. #BTC #ETH $BTC $ETH

Yesterday, the overall market gave a certain pullback, with Bitcoin facing pressure around the 93000 level and retracing, while the overall market stopped falling at the 90000 mark, which is consistent with our thoughts during the live broadcast early this morning, indicating a certain depth of descent. Currently, the key position is the 90000 level, which must not break. After hitting the top, the market is consolidating and retracing, and the overall trend still maintains a bullish tone moving forward. In our live broadcast yesterday, we also reminded everyone to pay attention to the 90000 level for Bitcoin and the 3000 level for Ethereum during the pullback, which have both been reached. As we move into the weekend, trading volume has weakened, and one should focus on short-term trades while maintaining a range-bound approach. There is a high probability that there won't be much movement on Saturday night, so let's take a break tonight and continue the live analysis at eleven o'clock on Sunday night.

From a four-hour perspective, this week BTC has continued to rebound and has broken through previous highs. Currently, it shows a four consecutive candle technical correction, with the price quickly retreating to the vicinity of the middle Bollinger band for consolidation. Despite a clear short-term pullback, it has not formed an effective breakdown, and the upward structure remains solid. This round of retracement is a healthy technical correction following a continuous slow rise. It is expected that after the weekend's consolidation, the rebound trend may continue, and the overall bullish pattern remains unchanged. From the one-hour perspective, the price surged and then fell back to the range between the middle and lower Bollinger bands, entering a horizontal oscillation pattern of alternating small declines and rises, with no further downward momentum appearing. Weekend market liquidity is weakening, the Bollinger bands continue to contract, and the oscillation range is continuously narrowing, with the current price operating near the recent low of the oscillation range. In summary, short-term consolidation does not change the mid-term bullish logic, and the strategy remains focused on laying out long positions during pullbacks to seize the upward opportunities post-oscillation.

Bitcoin can be bought at 90000-90500, looking at around 93500. Ethereum can be bought at 2970-2990, looking at around 3100. #BTC #ETH

Thanksgiving on Thursday, the US stock market is closed, and tonight there is expected to be little significant market fluctuation. Bitcoin has recovered to around 92000 during the day but is currently under pressure after a pullback, maintaining a fluctuating structure. Additionally, with the US stock market closed, there is expected to be no significant movement tonight, so maintaining a fluctuating approach for short-term trading is sufficient.

Currently, from the chart perspective, the four-hour chart shows a pullback to 92000, which is the top of the upward channel, and has turned bearish under pressure. There is certain room for a pullback in the short term, and the key support to focus on is the previous resistance level of 89000, which is a key support level for the top-bottom conversion. If a pullback reaches this position, it is a decisive entry point. The current trading strategy should still focus on maintaining a long position at lower levels.

Bitcoin can be bought in the range of 90000-90500, targeting around 94000. Ethereum can be bought in the range of 2950-2980, targeting around 3150. #BTC #ETH

Looking back at yesterday's overall market, Bitcoin rose above 88000, testing resistance before being pressured lower. During the day, it made a second dip near 86300 to stop falling, which was also a key resistance level near 86000 that was tested again. Overall, the market continues to show a corrective pattern, recovering; during the early morning session in the US, there was also a continuous increase in volume, and the price is now again recovering back to the 90000 mark, consistent with our recent medium to long-term strategy. Ethereum is also moving in sync with Bitcoin, currently recovering above the 3000 mark. The overall sentiment remains in a corrective rebound after a bottoming out, and the short-term outlook still maintains a bullish perspective.

From the daily chart of Bitcoin, after experiencing a bearish adjustment on Monday testing the resistance near 86000, yesterday showed signs of a bottom formation after another test at the bottom, and today’s resurgence also indicates that within the current weak structure, it is still in a corrective phase, which lays a solid foundation for future rebounds. Referring to the Fibonacci retracement levels for this round of corrections, the upper resistance levels to watch are 91000-94000-97000, and the current distance to the first resistance level is only a few hundred points. In the short term, after testing, there may still be space for a pullback, but there remains upside potential even at lower levels, so the overall direction remains unchanged. Considering the four-hour chart, the overall shape of the candlestick has formed a standard upward channel, and after the market's fluctuating consolidation, it has broken through the upper Bollinger Band pressure again, indicating a new round of recovery. After adjustments and a pullback to the bottom of the downward channel, it still presents an excellent opportunity for bottom fishing, so the current sentiment maintains a bullish outlook, and pullbacks present opportunities to go long.

Bitcoin can be bought lightly between 90000-89500, with a target near 91500. Ethereum can be bought near 3000, with a target near 3200. #BTC #ETH $BTC $ETH

The morning market experienced a round of highs and lows, establishing a positive bullish trend. The price surged strongly from a low of 86600 to 88200, and the subsequent pullback low of 86800 effectively remained above the previous low, forming a bullish structure of 'higher lows.' This not only confirms the effectiveness of the support below but also indicates that the bullish defense line is solid and the ability to control the rhythm has strengthened. Although there is some pressure above in the short term, the pullback bottom remains relatively firm, and the outlook still maintains a bullish perspective.

Currently, the market shows a healthy pattern of momentum switching. The pullback adjustment after the morning surge has effectively released short-term profit pressure, reducing the selling burden for subsequent upward movements. The price has stabilized again around 87550, indicating that market buying power remains active, with the potential for another upward attack. The overall technical structure is still dominated by bulls, and as long as the key support area of 86800-8660 is not broken, after sufficient consolidation and momentum accumulation, the index is expected to test the resistance zone of 88200 again. If there is an effective breakthrough at this position, it may further open up upward space.

You can buy Bitcoin at 87000-87500, looking at around 89000. You can buy Ethereum at 2900-2930, looking at around 3050. #BTC #ETH

The overall market trend has shown a slight weak structure today. The overall movement aligns with what we shared yesterday, indicating a gradual approach to breaking higher points. The second retest near 86000 in the evening also suggests that the current market is still testing the bottom support structure, and there are still opportunities for upward movement in the future.

From the perspective of the 4-hour technical pattern, the market's rebound trend has clearly emerged, with the bottom structure continuously solidifying. Since the formation of the previous key low at 80600, the price has gradually raised the low points, forming a clear ascending staircase pattern—this structure not only confirms the continuity of buying support in the relatively low region but also highlights the sustained strengthening of the support forces below. As the market dynamics tilt towards bulls, the daily pullback high points continue to rise, and the low point after the opening of the U.S. stock market in the evening also reached around 86000, maintaining oscillation operations between the middle and upper tracks of the 4-hour chart, mainly focusing on buying low.

BTC can be bought in the range of 87000-86500, targeting around 89000. ETH can be bought in the range of 2850-2880, targeting around 2950. #BTC #ETH

After yesterday's Asian market tested the support level of 85000, the price comparison in the early morning is still in a strong recovery phase. The price comparison has now broken through the resistance level of 88000, with losses reaching the key range of 88000-90600 that we mentioned. In the short term, the market will further fluctuate in a game of direction. Ethereum is also in a strong correction phase. Although the market has not recovered above 3000, it is not far from the take-profit point. Whether in our live trading or the early morning broadcast, we maintain a bullish outlook. Friends who follow this thinking have likely taken profits and exited, while those looking for a long-term position may consider continuing to play the game.

After a short-term adjustment, Bitcoin's bullish momentum is gradually reaccumulating, with technical indicators across all periods synchronously signaling a rebound. The current price has seen consecutive positive closes and has successfully stabilized at the middle track position. If this support level can be effectively maintained, it may become an important launching pad for further rebounds. Overall market sentiment is leaning towards the positive. From the 4-hour chart, although the price once dipped near the lower track, it did not trigger panic selling. Instead, it quickly stopped falling and rebounded, indicating that the local adjustment is nearing its end. This pullback seems more like a bullish consolidation before a high, aiming to clear out excess inventory and solidify the foundation to accumulate momentum for the upcoming surge. The Bollinger Bands have turned upward with the three lines, and the breakthrough of the key pressure level suggests that the market can expect further upward continuation.

Bitcoin can be bought at 87500-88000, looking towards around 91000. Ethereum can be bought at 2900-2930, looking towards around 3000. #BTC #ETH

Evening perfect retracement entry point, long position continues to hold #BTC #ETH

Let's talk about the market at dawn #BTC #ETH

On Monday, the early morning closing price is still in a phase of fluctuation adjustment, while the afternoon market continues to weaken. Currently, the market has once again dipped below the 86000 level, overall leaning towards a weak trend. The Asian market, in general, hasn't stirred up any significant activity. The true direction is still determined by the Americans, who love to harvest after emotional collapses over the weekend. Additionally, it is worth noting that this week, due to Thanksgiving and Black Friday being close together, the U.S. stock market will be closed on Thursday, and half-day on Friday, so we really need to watch the market in these first three days.

Now, let's talk about the structure of Bitcoin's chips. The bottom range of 82000-85000 had only 310,000 coins four days ago, and now it has increased to 796,000 coins. This quantity is not just the retail investors bottom fishing, so those in the know understand. Looking at the chart, the four-hour K-line tested the upper track at around 88100 without pressure, but the Bollinger Bands are currently in a flat formation. After short-term pressure, it has not further retested the middle track, but rather resembles a trap to stimulate the current market. The Asian market has been restless for so long and is still waiting for an increase in volume from the evening U.S. stock market. This kind of retest appears more like a test of the bottom structure before making a second upward pullback. Currently, the pressure levels of the larger cycle remain around 90600, and for this round of bullish reversal, it is advisable to consider taking profits in the range of 88100-90600.

Bitcoin can be bought in the range of 85500-86000, aiming for around 88500. Ethereum can be bought lightly near 2800, aiming for around 3000. #BTC #ETH

Last night, the market showed a volatile rebound. The big coin reached an intraday low at 86458 before stopping the decline and rebounding, moving up to around 87653 and entering horizontal volatility. In the morning, it peaked around 88100 before facing pressure and retreating; the aunt's trend was relatively mild, stabilizing around 2787 during the night and gradually moving up to the 2830 area for horizontal consolidation, synchronously hitting the stage high in the morning before falling into volatility. Short-term bearish momentum has clearly diminished, with bulls gradually taking control of the market. The overall strategy suggested for the future is to focus on volatile corrections and to position for lows.

The four-hour level shows a strong pattern of four consecutive bullish candles, but the Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, indicating that market volatility is being compressed, and the trend may enter a range consolidation to accumulate new directional momentum. On the one-hour chart, the three Bollinger Bands are synchronously rising, with prices strongly breaking through the upper band resistance, establishing a short-term technical structure biased towards bullish. Although the moving average system still shows hesitation, several momentum indicators have issued strong bullish signals, indicating that bearish forces are gradually exhausting. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator remains above the zero line, and the bullish energy bars continue to expand, visually revealing that buying funds are entering the market in an orderly manner. Overall, the current market is dominated by bulls, and the rebound trend is consolidated amidst volatility.

The big coin can be bought in the range of 87000-87500, looking towards around 91000. The aunt can be bought near 2800, looking towards around 3000. #BTC #ETH

The overall market trend remains consistent with our previous analysis. The market is maintaining a range-bound fluctuation, and the recent pullback is testing the bottom structure signals. Currently, Bitcoin has rebounded quickly after a low near 88500 in the early morning, and it has also regained stability around 91500. The market is still in a testing phase. Ethereum is following a similar path as Bitcoin, quickly recovering after breaking below the 2900 mark, and it is currently holding above the 3000 threshold. In actual trading, long positions at lower levels are still being held, and there have been certain gains in both short positions, whether high or low. For now, the strategy should still reference the range for operations.

From the current market perspective, the daily chart shows a fluctuation structure of alternating bearish and bullish movements, but with long lower shadows, indicating that there is still some support at the bottom. Even if there is a sell-off, a certain adjustment is needed, and it won't just drop sharply. The overall downward channel is still relatively clear, but the rebound after a deep adjustment deserves careful consideration. Currently, the K-line continues to consolidate near the lower track, and the Bollinger Bands are still in a downward-opening shape. Indicators show a certain level of bottom divergence, which indicates that the market is about to welcome an adjustment after a deep pullback. In the short term, we can continue to maintain a bullish outlook, and for short-term trading, if there are gains of over a thousand points within the day, it should be taken.

Bitcoin can be bought in the range of 90800-91200, looking towards around 93800. Ethereum can be bought in the range of 2950-2980, looking towards around 3150. #BTC #ETH

After yesterday's overall market underwent further adjustment, the Bitcoin price reached a low of around 89000 and stopped falling, while a strong rebound occurred in the early hours, touching around 93800 and then retreating. In contrast, the altcoin did not experience a deeper pullback, instead showing strength around the 2900 level, indicating signs of holding key support in the near term. Recently, everyone has been reminded to pay attention to the support structure at the high level of 90000, which was already tested in yesterday's pullback. Referring to the support and resistance levels from the first half of the year, 89000 is still expected to be the key support in the short term.

The peak of this bull market has seen a pullback of nearly 30% so far, and referencing the new highs from the previous two bull markets, the pullbacks have generally been around 30%. Currently, it may be worth considering the bottom in the short term to plan for long positions at low levels, rather than further pursuing short positions at even lower levels. Looking at the four-hour chart of a smaller cycle, the previous 89000 level was an important resistance point, while yesterday's pullback faced resistance at 89000. The rebound yesterday tested the critical Fibonacci 23.6% level and declined, and we are currently in a phase of a second bottom test after the rebound, attempting to probe the bottom support structure. The indicators have also generally entered an oversold stage, so in the short term, we can consider focusing on long positions at the low levels to operate, aiming to take advantage of buying power while setting stop losses at key resistance levels.

Bitcoin can be bought at 90000-89500, looking towards 93800 and around 96000. Altcoin can be bought at 2950-2980, looking towards around 3200. #BTC #ETH