土豆谈币

Come to the Binance chat collection
Seize future layout opportunities
Share swing and long-term strategies in real time!

$PONS couldn’t hold up either. It plunged to a low of 0.175 and is now hovering around 0.18.

The bright spot is that volume remains steady: just over 30M in 24 hours, marking five consecutive increases from the Oct. 31 bottom: 18→20→22→24→30→30.9M. But platform fees, transaction count, and burns are all declining. Just 99,000 tokens were burned yesterday, down 44% day over day, and the buyback pool has 229,000 left.

Price is weak, volume is holding up, and burns are shrinking. For now, let’s see whether 30M holds.

Don’t go all-in on altcoins. Especially if U.S. stocks trade all day on weekdays, altcoin liquidity will only get worse. If you’re chasing high returns, the odds are often worse than simply holding 2x $BTC —unless you’re sure you can pick the next breakout. I’m not bearish on all altcoins; infrastructure and established DeFi are still areas to watch closely when BTC pulls back on the daily chart.

Right now, picking the right assets matters more than working hard. Only buy the leaders in each sector:

BNB (CEX leader), HYPE (Perp DEX leader), LIT (second-largest Perp DEX), PUMP (largest Meme Launchpad), PONS (largest Meme Launchpad in the Robinhood ecosystem), UNI (largest AMM DEX), PENDLE (on-chain interest-rate leader), Morpho/AAVE (lending leaders), ENA (algorithmic stablecoin), DOGE (Meme leader), LINK (oracle leader), ZEC (privacy leader), RAY (Solana liquidity DeFi), AERO (largest AMM DEX on Base).

The key is to look at where each project stands in its niche. Don’t be put off buying the leaders just because they’ve already gone up a lot, only to turn around and buy garbage worth tens of millions in market cap. In the end, the strong often keep getting stronger, while the garbage goes all the way to zero.

The SEC’s new rules are under White House review, and the rules for broker-dealers conducting crypto business may change.

On November 3, the SEC submitted a rulemaking document concerning broker-dealers in crypto assets to the White House, where it is still under review. The focus is on three areas: broker-dealer net capital, customer asset protection, and recordkeeping. Requirements for how much capital broker-dealers must hold for crypto business, how they protect customer assets, and how they maintain records could all change.

Broker-dealers that are already compliant are providing crypto custody services. The SEC is considering how to apply existing broker-dealer rules to crypto. Clearer requirements and lower compliance costs could make it easier for traditional broker-dealers to enter the market.

Let's take a short position $RAYSOL

Resistance is near 1.80; enter near 1.77, take profit at 1.72 and 1.67, and ultimately target 1.60. Set a stop loss at 1.90.

Buyers may fail to break through 1.80, with a possible pullback to 1.67–1.60. However, the overall trend still leans bullish, so shorting is risky. If the price holds above 1.80, this trade setup weakens.

$PENDLE has really made its mark in tokenized stocks: around 17% market share, climbing from 7th to 2nd in a month, TVL topping $1 billion, and daily trading volume at $220 million. Those numbers are real.

But here’s the sticking point: TVL is rising while revenue is falling. Quarterly revenue dropped from $9.75 million to $1.89 million, down 81%. Buybacks are funded by revenue, so shrinking revenue means weaker buybacks. And the tokens bought back are distributed as staking rewards rather than burned, which could create selling pressure later. TVL is the show; revenue is the substance.

The price fell from 7.5 to 2.18, a 71% drawdown—but a steep drop doesn’t necessarily mean it has bottomed. Don’t focus only on the decline or market-share headlines. Watch whether revenue can turn upward and whether buybacks can be sustained by real transaction fees.

There’s still potential in BSC memes, but there are three types I stay away from: fast-pump PVP coins—no matter how high they pump in an hour, they’ll end in a mess. Old coins faking a comeback—hitching a ride on hype with no real catalyst, just to scam people who react too slowly. And obvious scam plays—celebrities shilling and official accounts promoting them, usually followed by a reversal and a dump. Very few are actually building anything.

For now, it’s best to keep your powder dry and wait for the next wave. If you’re itching to trade, pick small caps that still have consensus and aren’t dead, like $GANG and #年年, and take a small position to try for a second leg up. In a bad market, trade less and talk more.

Platform tokens can't even outperform tokens in their own ecosystem.

This is just ridiculous.

$PONS Trading volume has risen for four straight days, finally returning to the 30M range: 29.98M on November 4, up 23.7% from the previous period; platform fees +42.5%, protocol revenue +36.9%, token issuance +29%, and transaction count +33.7%—a broad-based recovery. 178,000 tokens were burned, bringing the cumulative total to 32.93%; 230,000 remain in the buyback pool.

Keep an eye on large transfers: linked wallets made a flurry of outgoing transfers yesterday. Two addresses transferred a combined 92.509 million tokens, equal to 13% of the total circulating supply—a potential signal of token movement.

My take is simple: if it can hold steady at 30M, that’s a good thing.

This morning’s rebounds in CAP, LSK, and FOLKS were really strong, but they’re not the same thing:

$CAP : The strongest rise, but it looks more like leveraged money igniting a small float. Positions rose 33%, funding turned positive, and new leverage came in. Yet protocol TVL and cUSD supply are shrinking, with 85% of the chips concentrated and only a little over one-tenth in circulation. The fire is real, but what’s burning is the fuel, not the engine.

$LSK : What’s rising is supply squeeze, not demand returning. The original chain was shut down, 25% of the total supply was burned, and it was a one-off shock. Technically it’s already overbought, Binance has put it under monitoring, and once the shock is used up, there’s still no answer for what can hold it up.

$FOLKS : Of the three, this one has the most substance. Dual listing on Binance Futures and Pancake brought real liquidity and trading volume, and it regained strength after a pullback. But whether a small-cap can keep going still depends on the broader market.

Lobster: The big player holds more than 90% of the chips, pumps it to squeeze shorts and then dumps it back into a range, cutting both ways. You can only play with pocket money you don’t mind losing, and accept that it will most likely go to zero. Once you start wanting to recover losses or think the rebound can continue, it changes from buying a lottery ticket into handing fuel to the market maker.

$BTC There are liquidation clusters on both sides: a break above 82,000 could trigger about $337 million in short liquidations. A drop below 79,000 could trigger about $919 million in long liquidations, so there’s clearly more congestion below.

A liquidation map shows the price levels at which forced liquidations may be triggered and their potential size. The taller the bars, the greater the potential selling pressure; if the price reaches those levels, short-term volatility can easily intensify.

$NEAR A false breakout from a double top earlier, followed by a break below the neckline, and the daily chart has now formed a bearish engulfing pattern.

If BTC sells off, NEAR could drop quickly, with a target around 3.0. The confluence of a structural multiple bottom and the Vegas channel makes this a good spot to go short.

The Binance hacker still holds approximately $8.9 million worth of altcoins.

$PEPE : $1.75 million
$AAVE : $1.61 million
$PENDLE : $1.33 million
EVA: $1.25 million
VIRTUAL: $1.14 million
UNI: $1.03 million
ENA: $824,000
They also have 3,687 ETH and 106 BTC, which no one can freeze.

$PONS The metrics are climbing, but the price is still falling. Daily trading volume has stayed above 20M for three consecutive days, recovering from a low to over 6M, but the price keeps sliding at 0.199.

Platform fees, revenue, and token issuance are all declining, while the burn rate has risen to 32.91%.

The new apps have already been pitched around a whole slew of concepts: social, meme, stocks, perps, and more.

My take is simple: stop making promises and ship one product at a time. What PONS needs right now isn’t a new story—it’s a product people can actually use.

The next 3–6 months may be the last window. After that, the market will get colder, so prepare for winter early.

Projects: TGE as soon as you can—the longer you wait, the harder it gets;

KOLs: build multiple revenue streams;

Retail investors: keep your powder dry; don’t fire recklessly.

There may be a few wild coins along the way, but VC-backed coins will have very limited upside, and both fundraising and TGE will get harder. Crypto is entering a downturn, and opportunities will only become scarcer. Figure out now how to make enough to get through the winter.

$QQQ Markets are looking rough, and tech stocks have become ATMs again. Nasdaq futures are down over 2%, the S&P is off nearly 1%, and only the Dow is holding up, down 0.35%. Money is fleeing high-valuation tech stocks for traditional defensive sectors.

Right now, the market isn’t looking at earnings—it’s just crushing valuations and deleveraging. The harder they surged before, the harder they’re falling now.

Don’t rush to play hero and catch a falling knife. Panic selling and leveraged positions haven’t been cleared out yet. Wait until forced liquidations have eased and the bleeding has stopped before considering picking up shares. Reach in now, and you could get cut.

The odds of a Democratic sweep have surged, and $BTC ’s 76K line in the sand probably won’t hold. The price is hovering around 77K, having bounced from 76.3K but without much momentum. Bulls are very weak on the 4-hour chart, daily volume is shrinking, panic selling is being flushed out, and dip-buyers haven’t made a major entrance either. Both bulls and bears are waiting for the election results.

Meanwhile, ETFs are seeing outflows: $1.042 billion over October 30 and November 2, with $639 million from IBIT. But whales are buying. Large holders collectively own 3.03 million BTC, and their accumulation pace is the fastest since February, though there’s also considerable disagreement among them.

Structurally, 76K–76.5K is both strong support and a liquidation zone. If it breaks, the next levels to watch are 74K–74.9K, with resistance at 78K–79K. For now, the market is drifting lower in a choppy pattern, taking two steps back for every one forward, with its center of gravity continuing to move down.

On Polymarket, the odds of Democrats winning the House are around 95%–96%, and the odds of them winning the Senate are around 74%–76%. The market is pricing in a “sweep,” not a “split.” If they really sweep, Trump will suffer a crushing defeat and the odds of military action against Iran will rise. If it’s just a split, BTC will still be struggling around 76K.