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The market is really bad—back and forth, it’s still just those few places with a bit of movement.

No new-coin profit effect: Alpha hasn’t shown up with any decent new projects in a long time. Even when it does list one, it’s quiet and uneventful. The “hairy scalpers” can’t get anything, second-level liquidity has no room, and as soon as it launches, it keeps dropping. A couple of days ago a spot listing came up, and I even watched it closely, thinking it was rare to get something that could get pulled up—but it’s still been a steady grind lower.

Nobody follows the second-layer pump: I checked the order book—lots of projects are trying to pump, but the volume doesn’t pick up, and there’s nobody to follow. The market makers tried a couple of times, but once nobody picked up, they ran. A few strong players are still holding on, but compared with when the market is good, the volume is nowhere near the same level.

It’s only a few people having fun on-chain: Whether it’s Robinhood or Stable, every day you can still see who made tens of millions of U, but when you flip through it, it’s always the same few faces. Who are they making money from? Everyone knows—those people who aren’t speaking.

Agencies are dead: No new projects are launching, and KOLs who used to survive on taking ad work have no business now. Lately a lot of people have come to ask me if I have any work—I’ve got very little on my side too. A few projects that were originally planned to go live have all been postponed.

With the market this bad, costs and returns don’t match, so project teams also don’t want to keep burning money on it.

Trump continues to be tough; oil prices today directly broke through $100. The most straightforward method: when oil rises, go short. Set the liquidation price to $120. If you really want to “stick a pin,” then adjust to $130 for extra stability. I just don’t believe WTI can stay above $100 for too long.

As oil prices rise, the U.S. stock market has already started a major pullback. With less than three and a half months until the midterm election, I’d like to see how long Trump can stay hard.

Bitcoin’s performance is actually not bad. Even though it’s pulling back along with the U.S. stocks, its decline is smaller than the Nasdaq. I previously sold at 65,000 and felt a bit regretful, but now it looks like 63,000 could be a chance to buy back.

Tonight, Trump said he would take “unprecedented” measures to strike Iran. Next Monday, let’s see whether there’s another TACO incident. btc

SpaceX’s Starship is set to fly again tomorrow morning!

At 06:45 Beijing time on July 24, a 90-minute launch window will open. If it lifts off on time, approximately 39 minutes later there will be a second engine ignition test.

$SPCX is currently $115.26, down nearly 15% from its $135 offering price. If the mission succeeds, short-term sentiment will certainly rebound for a bit, but the real pressure comes next: the first quarterly earnings report on August 4, unlocking up to 20% starting August 6, and then additional batches unlocking around 7% each beginning August 20. The last batch of the year will unlock on December 8.

If the event happens, the price can rise, but there’s still significant overhead pressure before the unlocks. Starship success can boost sentiment; whether the trend actually turns depends on the earnings report and the newly circulating supply.

Let’s talk two more sentences $哈基米 . This coin is only for playing the first tier, and it clearly says to try with small capital.

Why do I bring it up? The setup really is good—after the breakout, there’s a pullback; the MACD daily clears the zero axis—these are textbook-level signals.

Even though the primary market doesn’t discuss candlestick charts, I play with technical analysis. If I don’t look at candlesticks, what else would I look at? Think of it as small-cap “lottery tickets”—what if it takes off? Judging from Bitcoin’s trend, a major move might really be coming. It’s also not impossible that a few explosive coins emerge on the BSC chain.

$BTC Last night it retraced from 66,956 down to 65,554. For two straight days, both the swing highs and swing lows have been moving lower. The consolidation range is drifting downward. But the pullback had no volume—this isn’t distribution, just rotation/turnover at the high. The rebound also had no volume, and the bulls are still hesitant. Both long and short are contracting volume and waiting for direction. The wedge is converging and closing in—an inflection is coming soon.

Key levels: Above 66,956 is near-term resistance. Below 65,500 is the current support. This market is consolidating and converging within the range of 65,500 to 67,000.

Strategy:

Option 1: Go long with a light position from 65,800 to 66,000, stop-loss at 65,300;

Option 2 (recommended): Wait for around 65,500 to see a hammer candle or a long lower-wick reversal/stop signal, then enter. Targets: 67,500 to 70,800. Stop-loss: 65,100;

Option 3: Only chase a long if price breaks above 67,000 on increased volume. Stop-loss: 66,200.

Trade direction is driven by logic—enter after candle confirmation. Let 65,500 hold first, let 67,000 break first; then we act.

Good news! Binance has finally launched the old-user bind-reassignment feature, so you don’t have to unsubscribe and start over.

The conditions are simple: complete KYC, you currently have no upstream inviter, and your trading volume in the 90 days before applying is no more than 5,000 USDT.

The process is also not complicated: click the link, enter my code 【JN188】. If your trading volume reaches 150,000 USDT within 30 days, it will automatically bind. After that, a permanent 20% rebate will be returned on spot and futures trading fees.

CZ has already been a billionaire—let’s not pay the platform extra fees. If there’s a rebate, then use the rebate!

Market Analysis: Why this Bitcoin move is just a rebound, not a reversal?

First, price and volume aren’t aligned. Since the market bottomed out on June 30, the rebound has happened, but trading volume hasn’t kept up. Also, spot capital outflows are more than inflows, and the buy orders are clearly weak. Trying to directly break through the dense trapped-liquidity zone from 65,000 to 72,000 is basically unlikely.

Second, on-chain indicators haven’t reached “bottom” levels yet. Two market-tested bear-market bottom indicators—CVDD and LTH-RP—have historically seen each major bottom fall to or below these lines. Right now, CVDD is 48,464 and LTH-RP is 49,383, while Bitcoin’s lowest price is still far above both figures. That means the bottom hasn’t been formed.

Third, the derivatives market has a “bait” sitting there. In the 48,000 to 57,700 range, large amounts of contract liquidation liquidity have been piled up. The main players won’t miss this “fat” target, and it’s likely they’ll push prices lower to harvest it.

So the conclusion is simple: the pullback hasn’t gone far enough yet. What you’re seeing now is just a rebound—don’t treat it as a reversal. $BTC

Do you still have a little fantasy about the Bonk platform?

Let me tell you the truth—reality isn’t that rosy. External projects come in two types: one is actually migrating users and the community over in a real way—this is what you could call ecosystem expansion; the other shows up for the hype, wants to ride a new chain’s early momentum, and then leaves once the buzz fades.

People keep asking, isn’t PONS something that Unipcs built? So why is Bonk showing up too? To put it simply, it’s because they couldn’t agree on how to split the money. Unipcs went off on its own and launched a new platform—pretty smart, too, since they knew Bonk’s reputation was already ruined. So they just switched to a fresh new IP. Bonk saw that they were getting traction and only joined the migration yesterday.

From yesterday to today, PONS has risen so much. It’s not only because Viade is watching it—more importantly, there’s been a burst of retaliatory pull-up targeting Bonk, meant to push it down.

Bored Ape crew really isn’t short on money. One whale directly burned 15 million $STONKBROKER (about $60k) and activated nine StonkBrokers NFTs all the way up to the highest Partner tier in one go, doubling the dividend multiplier. From every cent the protocol earns going forward, he’ll get 1.7%.

With these bored ape OGs around, there’s no shortage of funds or confidence—so the ceiling for this project is definitely high.

First, the founder has a strong background. OxSimpleFarmer himself came out of Yuga Labs. The BAYC crowd naturally trusts him, which will bring in plenty of potential big capital.

Second, the mechanism is very friendly to whales. Higher-tier activation earns more dividend share plus ecosystem ownership, which is extremely attractive to wealthy people. Once the Launcher and vDEX go live, traffic and trading fees should ramp up, making dividends even more impressive.

Overall, it’s much more reliable than most projects on the market.

Recently gold is falling
A-share silver is falling
Hynix, Samsung are also falling
SpaceX breaks to a new low
Only Bitcoin is pulling up against the trend
Bitcoin is truly playing the role of digital gold $BTC

Recently, the counterfeit coin market has been especially extreme—either it doesn’t move at all, or when it does, it’s a violent surge or a violent plunge, kind of like summer weather: either scorching sun or torrential rain.

$PEPE is also stuck at this critical point right now. The price action is clearly building up energy; once it truly starts, it probably won’t be small talk. At the very least, it’s likely to be a brutal rally of 40% or more.

Moreover, this kind of opportunity usually comes quickly and leaves just as fast. So lately, it’s best to keep a close watch—don’t wait until other people have already flown and then realize you should react.

Can Bitcoin truly get going? The key lies in the monthly chart.

July is a rebound month. If, when the chart switches lines in August, it can still hold steady and continue climbing, then the bottom of the monthly chart may flatten out or even turn upward. Once the monthly chart completes its base-building and enters a monthly-level rebound, this bear market would basically be considered over.

So the monthly line transitions over the next few months are crucial. Each cycle follows a structure of “one bottom and three tops.” When it finishes, it’s over. What we need to do now is to patiently watch the monthly chart’s movement—no rush. $BTC

This week’s market is pretty interesting: the VIX suddenly spiked 12%. Tech stocks got hammered on Friday, but BTC is still holding around 64.8K—almost no movement.

Looking back to 2022, the correlation coefficient between BTC and QQQ was as high as 0.85. Now, based on what I can see, it’s more like 0.3. This isn’t Bitcoin becoming “a safe haven.” Rather, the market is reclassifying it—what kind of asset it truly is.

Two other things are worth watching: USDT has about two years left in the compliance countdown, and France directly shut down Polymarket. Regulation is tightening step by step, yet prices still aren’t reacting.

My guess is that this week $BTC will most likely keep ranging between 63K and 67K. As long as the VIX doesn’t come down, a big move is hard to kick off. But if this decoupling can hold through the next round of risk events, then it really won’t be a coincidence.

$LAB Can it rise above $1?

First, let me say this: Lab is completely different from so-called “air coins” with no revenue. It has genuine business cash flow that it can generate on its own. After the protocol upgrades, both users and transaction volume surged dramatically. And all fees and interest are permanently burned proportionally— the busier the business, the more scarce the coin becomes.

High annualized staking attracts large holders to lock up funds for the long term, greatly shrinking the circulating supply. With only a small amount of buy pressure, the market can be explosively pushed higher. With ongoing revenue continuously converted into burns + lockups, charging forward is the inevitable trend!

SK hynix’s share price continues to weaken, which is likely making many Korean investors uneasy.

Currently, 1,155 won has already broken below the prior key range of 1,414–1,210. The only buffer below is 1,100–1,134. Once that level is lost, the next likely stop is 1,000–1,050.

However, the fundamentals have not deteriorated. The company has not lost its leading position in HBM, and the tight supply situation is expected to continue through 2027. The key will be the Q2 earnings report in late July: if the guidance for HBM4 mass production is clear and profits also meet expectations, then around 1,100 is very likely to become a medium-term bottom. $SKHYNIX

a16z is selling over there; meanwhile, the giant whale side is actually topping up—interesting.

There’s a big holder. They accumulated 200,000 units of $HYPE in June. Four weeks later, today they withdrew another 20,000 units from the exchange, worth $1.18 million. Looks like they truly are bullish.

Since June 11, they’ve built a total position of 220,000 units, with a total investment of $14.85 million and an average price of $67.51. Although there’s currently an unrealized loss of $1.94 million on paper, they don’t seem to be worried at all—if they need to add, they add.

Now the whole coin and stock market is falling
You think you finally don’t have to lose money all by yourself

But you didn’t expect this, did you?
Others don’t even have spot holdings and yet they’re still full of short positions

The one who keeps losing money is always you 😅

Can this position at 828 still be shorted for $MU ?

First, look at the key levels: the 50-day moving average at 902 has already fallen below. The first support below is 869, and further down is 812. The current price is 828, which is only about 1% away from the strong support at 812—so it could bounce at any time.

Although MU hasn’t reached oversold yet and, in theory, it could drop a bit more, the “margin of safety” for the shorts is already extremely small. After all, the drop from 1255 to 828 means the main decline wave is basically over. There isn’t much profit left for the shorts. So, 828 is really not a good place to chase a short.

If you really want to short, wait for a rebound to around 950: that’s a signal that short positions start to loosen, or wait until the 1000–1030 area and only act once you confirm the price can’t go higher. If you short right now, the payoff odds are too poor.

If you want to go long, don’t rush either. Either wait for a high-volume bullish candle to hold above 902 (the 50-day line), or wait for a clear bottoming signal near 812. Catching the bottom from the left side still carries significant risk.

In one sentence: After a 34% drop, the main down-leg is basically done. Shorting at 828 isn’t worth it. Be patient and wait to short on a rebound to 950–1000, or look for a bottoming signal near 812 for a safer entry.

The South Korean government has just urgently applied brakes: stock leveraged trading margin has been increased threefold, rising to 30 million won (about $20,000), and it accepts only cash—no other collateral.

At the same time, leveraged traders must buy at least 20 shares with every order; previously, you could play with just 1 share. Going forward, approval will no longer be granted for the listing of new single-stock leveraged trading products.

With this combination of measures in place, it’s clearly intended to cool off high-leverage trading, which will have a significant impact on the stock market’s short-term liquidity.