智医论币

This system is not about making calls or promising returns. It compresses the 10-coin Observation Pool into a daily actionable digest, so subscribers know who to focus on today, who to wait for, who to place, and who to give up. The core principle is just one sentence: protect principal first, demand a safety margin first; win rate is not the top indicator.
1. Observe the source of the 10 coins in Pool: The current official Observation Pool includes PENDLE, JUP, HYPE, AAVE, LDO, AERO, MORPHO, ONDO, ENA, and EIGEN. They are not chosen at random. Instead, they are screened from top market-cap projects, then re-evaluated through in-depth research. The selection criteria include: industry track space, real demand, project progress, TVL and trading volume, real revenue and cash flow, token capture, buyback/burn and staking mechanisms, unlock and issuance pressure, valuation position, technical support/resistance pressure, and major risk events.

Welcome to ZhiYi LunBi, a spot trading account that conducts market research with a clinical practitioner’s logic.
My core method isn’t about chasing pumps or signals; it's like clinical diagnosis: first, identify risks, then assess opportunities: analyze market cycles, support and resistance, capital flow, tokenomics, unlocking sell pressure, cash flow, chip structure, and invalidation conditions.
Let's clarify the difference between the public zone and subscription content first.
1. What does the public zone mainly share?
The public zone is mainly for showcasing research logic, suitable for new friends to observe first.
The public zone will share:
1. Market direction summary;

The main path provided last night was relatively weak defense. BTC needed to hold 62809 and ETH needed to hold 1864 in order to have a foundation for further stabilization. In reality, the 24-hour intraday lows were 62457.9 and 1848.84 respectively, and both short-term supports were broken to the downside. The repair conditions were not met, confirming the view that there is downside risk and that altcoins should be defended first. What needs to be corrected today is: you cannot treat the rebound back toward the area of last night’s support as a reversal just because the price has temporarily pulled back near that level after the dip.
The overall market is still in a weak sideways range. There can be technical repairs intraday, but it does not yet support an active push. BTC is currently at 62984.1, down 2.39% over the past 24 hours, with a range of 62457.9 ~ 64610.8; ETH is currently at 1867.51, down 2.19% over the past 24 hours, with a range of 1848.84 ~ 1912.17. Both have rebounded from their intraday lows, but the 4-hour chart is still weak, and both remain below their respective 4-hour moving-average resistance. Only if BTC and ETH simultaneously reclaim resistance can the repair potentially spread to altcoins. If either one turns weak again, you should continue to prioritize controlling pullbacks above all else.

Evening Session Market Analysis | 2026-07-31 | Market data up to 01:38
Morning recap
BTC repair conditions not met: current price 63094; the morning watershed level is 64680. ETH repair conditions not met: current price 1875; the morning watershed level is 1918.
Current Assessment
The broader market is in a relatively weak defensive posture. Only if BTC holds 62809 and ETH holds 1864 can the market maintain the weak defensive main path. If BTC breaks below 62458 or ETH breaks below 1849, observe whether the pool immediately shifts to defense.
BTC
Current price 63094; supports 62809/62458, resistances 63094/65432. 1-hour: weak; 4-hour: weak; daily: range-bound oscillation.
ETH
Current price 1875; supports 1864/1849, resistances 1876/1937. 1-hour: weak; 4-hour: range-bound; daily: range-bound oscillation.

Macro and market main theme
First, the conclusion: tonight’s truly important development is not that another hotspot has emerged, but that institutional capital has finally improved, while prices have not followed through with a stronger move. The Fed is more hawkish, stablecoin purchasing power is shrinking, and BTC and ETH are both slipping together—this indicates the market is still digesting pressure. When it comes to member handling, start with defense: don’t treat a single day’s ETF inflow as direct confirmation of the start of another upswing.
On July 29, the Fed kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, but three commissioners argued for a 25-basis-point hike, and inflation remains above the 2% target. It’s true that policy has not continued tightening, and it’s also true that the internal dissenting votes were hawkish. In the short term, it suppresses risk appetite; in the medium term, it continues to elevate the importance of energy, inflation, and employment data. Today, BTC and ETH have weakened, suggesting the market has not interpreted the “rate hold” as a liquidity-positive signal. Next, we need to see whether the data can weaken the disagreement about further hikes.

Someone asked me, “If you’ve researched so much, why not just tell me what to buy in the end?”
This line is very true. People who just entered the market most often want one answer: what to buy, and when it will go up. But a single trading signal only tells you to press the buy button—it doesn’t tell you why to buy, where the risks are, or what to do if your judgment is wrong.
When the market is moving, almost any piece of code can look accurate. What truly creates the gap is this: when the price doesn’t go as expected, do you have a second step.
When I look at a coin, I usually don’t only check whether it’s gone up recently. First, I need to figure out what the project runs on—whether the token can actually capture and carry value. Then I check whether the news is just sitting in announcements or has already been implemented. Only after that do I consider whether the current position is worth taking on the risk. If any link doesn’t make sense, what looks “pretty good” can easily turn into “not something you should buy.”

First the conclusion: today the broader market has shifted from range-bound repair to waiting for direction. The main path is: if BTC holds 63,900 and ETH holds 1,899, they continue to consolidate, then attempt to reclaim the upper resistance. Only if BTC holds above 64,680 and ETH also holds above 1,918 will the repair have a sustainable basis to continue.
Yesterday’s verification: BTC was required to hold 64,000 and consolidate above 64,734. It briefly moved above the watershed level in the evening, but today it pulled back to around 64,346—so we judge this as partial profit-taking. ETH was required to hold 1,900 and consolidate above 1,935. It tested 1,936 during the day but failed to maintain—so we also judge this as partial profit-taking.
Today I’m only watching three signals:
1. BTC: The watershed level is pending confirmation. Only if it holds above the resistance will we look for continuation; if it breaks the key support, it turns into a defensive posture.

Daily crypto market news analysis for 2026-07-30 22:32
The macro and market main storyline
Start with the conclusion: the most important change tonight is not how much prices have risen again, but that while the Fed remains on hold, three commissioners are advocating for a rate hike. BTC and ETH can still sustain their recovery, suggesting the market is not trading immediately in the worst-case direction; however, policy, ETF capital flows, and the purchasing power of stablecoins have not yet formed a unified positive impulse. In terms of member management, they should treat this round of rally as a repair that needs confirmation, and not chase leverage at higher levels.
On July 29, the Fed said it would keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75% and that economic activity remains solid, with inflation still above the 2% target. More notably, three dissenters want a 25-basis-point rate hike. This is not a realization of expectations for a rate cut; rather, it clearly tilts hawkish due to policy disagreement. In the short term, it may suppress risk appetite, while in the medium term it implies that the importance of upcoming inflation and energy price data will rise. My view is that prices have not immediately weakened on the hawkish signal, which shows resilience—but we cannot treat “holding up for a day” as a direct return to looser liquidity.

Evening session market analysis｜2026-07-30 21:35
Morning recap
BTC repair conditions met: current price 65038, early-session watershed level 64734. ETH repair conditions not met: current price 1931, early-session watershed level 1935.
Current assessment
The overall market is in a slightly strong repair phase. BTC must hold 64691 and ETH must hold 1917 to maintain the slightly strong repair main path. If BTC breaks below 63268 or ETH breaks below 1874, observe that the pool will immediately switch to defense.
BTC
Current price: 65038; supports: 64691/63268, resistances: 65170/65170. 1-hour: slightly strong; 4-hour: ranging/sideways; daily: ranging/sideways.
ETH
Current price: 1931; supports: 1917/1874, resistances: 1937/1937. 1-hour: slightly strong; 4-hour: slightly strong; daily: ranging/sideways.

Someone asked me: “My principal isn’t much. If I’m afraid to take risks, when can I ever turn things around?”
I understand how urgent that feels. The less money you have, the more likely you are to think you must catch one big move—ideally in one shot—to make up the gap. But the harshest part of the market is that it won’t shrink the risk just because your principal is small and you’re eager to profit.
What ordinary people are competing for in the market is often not who can guess the next big surge, but who can still stay in the game after making a mistake.
Once you go all-in chasing at the top, and then hit a drawdown, your account may take a long time to recover. And when you add leverage again just to break even as quickly as possible, losses that you could originally have withstood may turn into getting forced out. By the time a truly suitable opportunity appears, you may have no money and no mindset left to reassess. The problem isn’t that you missed out on making money once—it’s that you lost the right to keep participating.

As of 14:49 on July 16, the LDO spot price is 0.3716 USDT. Looking back at the 0.22–0.25 low-buy zone provided on June 30: using the top end of the range, the stage gain is 48.64%; using the bottom end, it is 68.91%; using the midpoint cost of 0.235, it is 58.13%. On the morning of July 1, the LDO price returned to 0.2404; from that public timestamp, the gain is 54.58%.
These numbers are impressive, but I don’t want to write this recap as a one-time “successful call.” It’s only a theoretical calculation based on the publicly stated range, and it does not represent anyone’s actual trading profits. What’s truly worth revisiting is why we were paying attention to LDO at the time, and why after it started rising we didn’t keep raising the buy price.

Yesterday’s review: BTC’s key watershed yesterday was 62,900~63,100. In reality, the range over the past ~24 hours was about 63,757~64,443. There was no pullback to test the watershed, and price pushed up to try 64,400 instead. The repair/upgrade direction has been realized, but the 65,000 strong resistance has not yet been broken open. ETH’s key watershed yesterday was 1,745~1,755. In reality, the range was about 1,770~1,803. After establishing stability, it tested 1,800. The call was realized. ETH is stronger than BTC; altcoin risk appetite has improved, but it is not yet a full-on offensive market.
Today’s overall view: BTC is currently around 63,995, up about 0.38% over the past ~24 hours; ETH is around 1,790, up about 1.45% over the past ~24 hours. Both are in a pressure-confirmation phase after ongoing repair/recuperation. BTC is slightly bullish on the 4-hour chart, while the 1-hour momentum is cooling. ETH has regained the key daily moving averages, but there is still selling pressure around 1,800. Altcoins have been adjusted from “moving less” to cautious observation of the repair. Only after BTC breaks 64,500 and ETH also holds steadily above 1,815 will the offensive timing be more reliable.

Yesterday’s recap: For BTC, the key watershed level was 62,200~62,400. In reality, the 24-hour range was about 61,636~63,448. After a pullback during the session, price reclaimed the watershed level and moved close to the 63,400 resistance. The call that “if it holds, weak repair can continue” was validated, but the strong resistance has not been opened yet. For ETH, the key watershed level was 1,735~1,750. In reality, the range was about 1,720~1,761, with most of the time seeing consolidation around the watershed; it did not lose control by breaking below 1,720, and it also did not firmly stand above 1,770. The conclusion is therefore only partially fulfilled. Yesterday’s altcoin action being more defensive was largely in line with expectations, and the mainstream-coin recovery did not spread into a full-scale offensive.
Overall assessment today: BTC and ETH are currently in a bullish recovery after a weak sideways consolidation, but it’s not yet a one-way reversal. BTC is trading around 63,216, with a 24-hour change of about +1.55%. ETH is around 1,745, with a 24-hour change of about +0.18%. BTC has regained above the MA20 and MA50 on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, and the MACD histogram’s red bars are continuing. ETH is hovering near its moving averages on the 1-hour chart, but on the 4-hour chart it is still below the MA20; its rebound strength is weaker than BTC’s. Today altcoins have shifted from relatively defensive positioning to moving less (slightly more cautious), and only after BTC breaks through strong resistance and ETH simultaneously reclaims the resistance zone will a clearer offensive window open up.

For many beginners, the most agonizing moment is not the instant right after they buy, but when they start seeing the price go down. Watching the unrealized loss grow little by little, their first instinct is often not to wonder what they bought incorrectly, but to quickly find a way to bring their cost basis down. So their mind keeps repeating one sentence over and over: Should I add a little more to average it down—so that when it rebounds, I’ll feel relieved.
Let’s state the answer clearly: after you get trapped in a position, you can still add more—but you can’t add just because you feel uncomfortable. First, you need to distinguish what you’re actually stuck with: is it the position itself, or the underlying logic? Is it just short-term market fluctuation, or did you not understand what you were buying in the first place? If you can’t clearly explain why you bought it, why it’s falling, and whether you can even hold it after it drops, then adding more is most likely not improving anything—it’s just magnifying the mistake.

Macro and market main thread
First, the conclusion for tonight: the most important thing in the crypto market today isn’t any specific small-coin news—it’s that external risks have once again weighed down market sentiment. Oil prices clearly surged again due to renewed tensions in the Middle East, and Treasury yields followed suit. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at one point rose to around 4.56%. This combination is unfavorable for crypto assets because it simultaneously raises inflation concerns and increases funding costs; naturally, the market doesn’t want to offer small-cap alts a very high risk premium.
I think the most common misjudgment ordinary people are likely to make today is taking BTC’s intraday spike during the day as a trend that’s already been re-established. In reality, the macro side hasn’t yet issued any easing signals, and risk assets are also waiting for the Fed meeting minutes and how oil prices react afterward. In this environment, crypto can rebound, but the rebound needs continuous capital confirmation; if external markets continue to move in the combination of “oil prices high, Treasury yields high, and stock market volatility high,” then it’s hard for small-cap alts to unfold comfortably in the short term.

Yesterday’s review: Yesterday, the key pivot for BTC was 63,600–63,800; the actual 24-hour range was about 62,613–64,258. During the session, price first broke below the pivot, then pulled back and moved above 64,200, and finally returned to around 63,400. This shows that the portion of the thesis about “holding the level to look for a repair, and falling back to first look for a retest” was fulfilled. However, the overhead resistance wasn’t broken through, so the pace of yesterday’s somewhat cautious attempt to attack needs to be dialed down.
For ETH, yesterday’s key pivot was 1,785–1,800; the actual 24-hour range was about 1,756–1,811. After pushing higher, it fell back below the pivot again, and the repair didn’t continue—confirming the conclusion.
For alts, yesterday’s call leaned a bit cautiously toward an offensive approach, but ETH wasn’t clearly stronger than BTC and the momentum didn’t sustain. Today, the stance is adjusted to be more defensive.

First, let’s start with the conclusion tonight: this is not a full-blown bull market launch. It’s more like a repair-and-validation phase after an oversold plunge. The only three things worth members paying close attention to are: whether ETF inflows can return continuously, whether BTC can hold above $64,000, and whether stablecoin liquidity pools have started expanding again. My take is that sentiment is noticeably better than last week, but it’s still not at the point where you should chase small-cap coins aggressively.
First, look at liquidity. The U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a net inflow of about $265.69 million on Monday, and the ETH ETF also had a modest net inflow of about $20.66 million. Compared with last week, this data looks much more comfortable, suggesting that after the selloff, institutional funds have indeed come back to test and absorb supply. But the issue is also right here: last week, BTC ETFs as a whole were still net outflows of about $526.6 million, and ETH ETFs still haven’t escaped weakness. So a one-day rebound in flows only shows that there are buyers showing up—it can’t directly prove a trend reversal.

Yesterday’s review: Yesterday, the key watershed for BTC was 63,100~63,300. The actual 24-hour low was about 61,250. After breaking down during the session, price pulled back and reclaimed around 64,000, then pushed up to 64,659, which indicates that the “if it breaks down, defend first; if it reclaims, then look for repair” part of the plan was realized. However, 64,600~65,000 has not yet opened up in a stable way, so it cannot be treated as a one-way strong reversal. For ETH, the key watershed yesterday was 1,765~1,775. The actual low was about 1,727. It then rebounded to around 1,800 and tested as high as 1,832. After support was lost, it was reclaimed; therefore, the conclusion part was realized. As for the altcoins, yesterday’s note said to move less. In reality, market volatility increased; after ETH surged, it remained under pressure. Overall, this matched a cautious watch-and-observe approach.

The main takeaway in the crypto market tonight is really just one sentence: the market has caught its breath coming out of panic, but it’s not yet time to blindly feel optimistic. Throughout the day, BTC has been consolidating above $63,000, with some intraday repair, but around $64,000 remains short-term resistance. This level is the easiest place for people to misjudge things—because many see that the price won’t fall any further and immediately interpret it as “a reversal has started.” I think what we’re seeing now is more like a breather after a sharp selloff, not that the trend has already been completely reversed. To truly confirm that the market is getting stronger, we still need to see whether $64,000 can hold with volume.
For liquidity today, you should focus on the ETF flows. After the market faced continued pressure earlier, the U.S. spot BTC ETF recently showed net inflows of over $200 million again. This suggests that institutional capital hasn’t fully pulled out—after the drawdown, there really is money willing to come back and buy. But this data can’t be judged by just one day. A single day’s inflow only indicates short-term buying interest; only continued inflows would suggest that capital has formed a renewed consensus. The mistake that ordinary people are most likely to make is seeing net inflows on one day and immediately chasing the price. Then if the funding doesn’t persist the next day, the price gets pushed back again.

Someone asked me: are cryptocurrency courses that require payment online all just scamming people for their money?
You can’t simply say that all paid courses are scamming tools, but in the market, more than 90% of paid courses and paid communities are essentially tools for extracting money. There are clear ways to tell the difference between the two—teach everyone how to quickly spot it.
1. Paid courses that are purely scamming people for their money (the vast majority—just avoid them directly)
1. The marketing scripts are all get-rich-fast hype

They push “double your money every month, precise 100x-coin notifications, follow me and you’ll surely not lose, and recoup your tuition within a week,” packaging crypto trading as low-risk wealth management.
The core scam: first attract newcomers with screenshots of short-term explosive price gains and fake live-trading profit records. After they pay, they give a bunch of illogical junk altcoin picks, urging users to go heavy and add contract leverage. The “teacher” profits from the students’ trading fees and from split profits with ‘rug-pull’ private pools. As a result, students typically end up losing money in the long run.