陈小晖

If tomorrow we can still continue to slump a bit, then small- and mid-cap tech is likely at a relatively good point. But in the medium- to long-term, the trend won’t change. Recently, there’s been a lot of bullish talk about storage. Still, we believe in logic, not stories. People talk about what servers and compute power sound cutting-edge, but they haven’t even managed to form a normal commercial closed loop.

Capital expenditures are getting larger and larger. Today, the European Central Bank even raised rates. Next, Japan will probably start as well.

As for the consumer side, Apple 18 is out. But because hardware prices have risen, once the specific batch of consumption data comes out, we may not even need to wait for the rate decision—just the consumption figures for consumer electronics (computers and phones) would be enough to be a real blow.

As for themes, recently El Niño has been developing pretty strongly, which also adds some certainty to inflation. But this wave of themes is mainly because funds flowing out of large-cap tech are being absorbed. When the main storyline isn’t clear, people go after hotspots instead. But it seems a bit too hot right now.

Wait for the inflation data tomorrow evening. Good night, brothers. #美国8月PPI涨幅低于预期 #欧洲央行二次加息至2.5%

Digital collectible tax compliance clarified: the VAT law and supporting announcements effective from 2026 provide clear legal grounds for bringing digital collectibles within the scope of VAT collection. In short, from now on all users and businesses, as well as IP issuers—including individual creators—must pay taxes according to law.

So yes, they’re really starting to collect it all.
#nft

$SKHYNIX $SNDK I've been messing around for a week and it's still like this. I'll wait a bit more—tomorrow the inflation index will be released. I feel that for this round of storage, there's no need to wait for a rate hike. Once the mobile phone and computer inflation data and consumption data come out, the specific situation of how hardware affects consumption will become clear. If you raise your prices, you can hold off on buying for now—you raise yours and then switch to a new phone or computer a few years later, which will clearly affect the consumption side. Like Apple and HP, for example. Then it will force production capacity—either hardware prices go down, or you don't let it affect the consumption side. #苹果发布首款折叠屏手机 #海力士 #SanDisk

The next stop for AI investment is spreading from "selling shovels" to "people who use shovels." With a thematic strategy report, Morgan Stanley provides an answer that balances both ends.

On September 4, Morgan Stanley released the thematic strategy report "Increase Exposure to AI Application Beneficiaries While Staying with Core AI Enablers": the number of quantifiable mentions of AI-related earnings in Asia-Pacific companies’ earnings call transcripts rose from about 100 in Q1 2023 to nearly 3,000 in Q2 2026; of those, the share related to revenue increased from 25% at the beginning of 2023 to 40%—AI monetization is shifting from an "efficiency story" to "revenue growth." The report lists 22 AI application beneficiaries and also recommends continuing to hold core AI enablers.

Changes in New Theme Rankings and Focus Lists

The Morgan Stanley themes ranking highest include: AI computing infrastructure, China’s AI path, AI enablers, providing power to AI, AI sovereignty and semiconductor localization, humanoid and embodied AI, and AI application beneficiaries.

Changes to the Asia-Pacific thematic focus list: NEC, Mitsui & Co., MediaTek, Standard Chartered, and S-Oil were added; Furukawa Electric, Doosan Enerbility, Phison Electronics, GS Yuasa, and LS Electric were removed—Phison’s removal from the focus list is notable (profit momentum has weakened), but Morgan Stanley still covers the stock.
#中国8月CPI同比涨0.8%
$NVDAB

$SKHYNIX open shorts that were held have been tough; yesterday I liquidated the $SNDK open short. This month the two open shorts have retraced quite a bit, but I’m still firmly bearish. I won’t set a stop loss—every time price spikes up to the pressure level, I’ll continue adding to the short positions.
My performance this month hasn’t broken through yet. With live trading at 2x leverage, I started with 1500u and grew to 6000u over two months, but I’ve now retraced some again. I’m still hoping that this month I can catch a good opportunity and reach 1w2000u—let’s see whether the market gives us the chance.
And I also wish all you brothers make good money this month. #海力士 #SanDisk

Oil prices near $100, US Treasury yields rising, the central bank meeting schedule is packed—there’s a lot of market noise, but JPMorgan’s choice is very firm: it continues to be bullish on stocks.

JPMorgan is optimistic about the Asia-Pacific macro outlook: despite sharp swings in interest rates, exchange rates, and oil prices, it still maintains a bullish stance on equities—supported by four reasons for risk appetite over the coming weeks: solid growth, interest rates that aren’t overly high, the US’s tendency toward a low-dollar/low-rate environment, and clean hedge-fund positioning. The report also flags two cautions: the rise of right-wing forces in Germany brings risks related to “Europe First” trade policies, and although US nonfarm payrolls came in far above expectations, the market is concerned about further rate hikes.

Personally, I still feel that nothing changes the fundamental problem#原油涨至7月来最高 $CL